Who Will Win the TDF

76 (36.7%)
65 (31.4%)
10 (4.8%)
12 (5.8%)
9 (4.3%)
1 (0.5%)
9 (4.3%)
9 (4.3%)
9 (4.3%)
1 (0.5%)
2 (1%)
1 (0.5%)
3 (1.4%)

Total Members Voted: 207

Voting closed: July 01, 2017, 10:32


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Re: The Jersey Contenders
« on: June 21, 2017, 10:18 »
#green Classement par points

The points classification of the Tour de France has a long history, going back to 1905 when the decision was made to determine the winner of the yellow jersey by points instead of a time system. And although it was changed back in 1912 the points system was reintroduced in 1953 to celebrate the 50th birthday of the Tour de France - this time as an additional classification, with the leader wearing the green jersey. And so he does for 64 years now.

The details of where to score how many points have been adjusted several times, with the last major change in 2011 - and another minor one two years ago, as the current points system seemed to favor an allrounder over a sprinter too much.

Points awarded at the finish (by stage category):

cat. 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
#flat Flat   50      30      20      18      16      14      12      10      8      7
#med Hilly   30      25      22      19      17      15      13      11      9      7
#mountain Mountain   20      17      15      13      11      10      9      8      7      6
#tt Time Trial   20      17      15      13      11      10      9      8      7      6
+ minor points for place 11-15

Points awarded at the intermediate sprint are the same on every type of stage (apart from time trials of course):


...with the stages being categorized in the following way:
  • #flat Flat Stages: 2, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 19, 21
  • #med Hilly Stages: 3, 5, 8, 14, 15, 16
  • #mountain Mountain Stages: 9, 12, 13, 17, 18
  • #tt Time Trials: 1, 20
so with 8 possible sprint stages à 50 points on the line, the rules still clearly favor a sprinter to win the jersey. The opportunities to score big points mainly come pretty early in the race with half of the eight sprint stages in the first week. Therefor the battle for green is also likely to come down to motivation, because a sprinter who has scored many points in the first couple of days, will need to be able to fight through the mountain stages to reach the finish and defend his jersey.

Since 2011 the importance of the intermediate sprints has been increased and they have had a major influence on Sagan's dominance. Most of those are fairly flat this year though, and only on stage 9, 15 and 17 they are located at places which may favor stronger climbers over pure sprinters.

Favorites for the Maillot Vert:

Peter Sagan has won the jersey five times in a row now, and the World Champion is the most complete rider in the peloton, so he obviously is the favorite to take it again. Last year he won three stages and recently in the Tour de Suisse he looked on a good track to make it six in a row, equaling Eric Zabels record.

Mark Cavendish is the only other rider on the startlist who has won the jersey before, but he seems to be struggle to get back in shape after a injury plagued season so far. Marcel Kittel - 2nd in the competition last year - should be the fastest sprinter around, but his performance over the past weeks didn't seem to be consistent enough to dominate the sprints in France. He may focus on stage wins again instead of targeting green.

With the French sprinters it's a different story, they usually go full out on all fronts, and especially Coquard has had an eye on the jersey over the past years. It remains to be seen if he is quick enough to take enough points in the flat sprints though.

Greipel came 2nd in 2012 and 2015, Kristoff in 2014, and Bouhanni won the classification in the Giro two years ago, and also Sonny Colbrelli mentioned that winning green would be a goad for him, so they obviously can't be discounted, but it's difficult to see on which terrain they really have enough of an advantage to win. Other potential contenders are more allrounder type of riders like Degenkolb or Matthews, but they probably only stand a chance if Sagan really struggles.

#kom Classement du meilleur grimpeur

The mountain classification in the Tour de France was introduced over 80 years ago, but although the best climber was first recognized already in 1933, the distinctive maillot blanc à pois rouges was not introduced until 1975, when the colors were decided by the then sponsor, Chocolat Poulain, whose chocolate bars were covered in a polka dot wrapper. In recent years we have seen breakaway specialists like Rafal Majka, Thomas Voeckler or Anthony Charteau winning the jersey, but also gc riders like Nairo Quintana and Chris Froome, who was the first winner of the Tour to also wear the polka dot jersey on the podium in Paris - as it wasn't introduced yet, when Eddy Merckx won both in 1970.

Same as for the points classification, the scoring system has changed several times - with a minor adjustment this year, reducing the amount of points available on HC category climb from 25 to 20 - and they are now distributed according to the following scheme:

Type de côte 1er 2e 3e 4e 5e 6e 7e 8e
Hors catégorie 20 15 12 10 8 6 4 2
1re catégorie 10 8 6 4 2 1
2e catégorie 5 3 2 1
3e catégorie 2 1
4e catégorie 1

The points for a mountain top finish used to be doubled if that mountain is HC, category 1, or category 2, but In this year's edition double points are only offered on the stage 18 Col d'Izoard finish. That means, the following maximum allocation of points is available during the stages and at the finish:

STAGE Pt. / Underway Pt. / at Finish
St. 1      Düsseldorf ITT      0      0
St. 2      Düsseldorf - Liège      1      0
St. 3      Verviers - Longwy      1+1+2+1      2
St. 4      Mondorf-les-Bains - Vittel      1      0
St. 5      Vittel - La Planche des Belles Filles      2      10
St. 6      Vesoul - Troyes      1+1      0
St. 7      Troyes - Nuits-Saint-Georges      1      0
St. 8      Dole - Station des Rousses      2+5+10      0
St. 9      Nantua - Chambéry      5+2+2+20+20+1+20      0
St. 10      Périgueux - Bergerac      1+1      0
St. 11      Eymet - Pau      1      0
St. 12      Pau - Peyragudes      1+5+10+20+10      5
St. 13      Saint-Girons - Foix      10+10+10      0
St. 14      Blagnac - Rodez      2+2      0
St. 15      Laissac - Le Puy-en-Velay      10+2+10+1      0
St. 16      Le Puy-en-Velay - Romans-sur-Isère      2+1      0
St. 17      La Mure - Serre-Chevalier      5+20+10+20      0
St. 18      Briançon - Izoard      2+10      40
St. 19      Embrun - Salon-de-Provence      2+2+2      0
St. 20      Marseille ITT      0      0
St. 21      Montgeron - Paris      0      0
TOTAL            291      57

In several of those stages (particularly 8, 9, 12 and 17), the harder climbs come late in the stage, so the chance of a gc rider raking the maillot blanc à pois rouges shouldn't be discounted, but overall an attacking rider should be the favorite to take the jersey, especially if the breakaway manages to stay clear on stages like 9 or 12 which offer a load of points. Actually, the competition could be more or less decided after one of those days already.

And in case it may end up to be really close... "in the event of a tie between two riders in the general best climber ranking, the rider with the most first places at highest level pass summits is declared the winner. If the riders are still tied, the first places obtained in 30 the category 1 passes will be used to determine the winner. If necessary, the first places achieved at the summits of category 2, category 3 or category 4 passes or hills will be taken; as a last resort, the final general time ranking will be used."

Favorites for the Maillot Blanc à Pois Rouges

It's difficult to name clear favorites to win the mountain classification as it always is determined by the outcome of the general classification as well, with riders casting an eye on the jersey only after losing time in gc - but generally, apart from the top gc riders like Froome or Quintana it should favor riders who have been successful in winning mountain jerseys the past and are never afraid to attack if they get the freedom to, like for example Majka, Rolland, Wellens or de Gendt. Also strong climbers like Barguil or Chaves could come in play though, if they lose time early on in the Tour, which doesn't seem to be too unlikely giver their all but perfect preparation. But the favorite is probably Thibaut Pinot, who already stated early in the year that the GC would not be a goal for him, and that he would focus on stage wins and the polka dot jersey instead

#white Classement du meilleur jeune

The white jersey for the best young rider was first introduced in 1975 and is awarded to the rider with the highest position in the general classification, not born before January 1st 1992. The list of winners in recent years include some of the best riders in the world and favorite for this years' Maillot Jaune, with Nairo Quintana taking it in both his Tour de France participations he was eligible to win the jersey (2013 and 2015), Tejay van Garderen and Thibaut Pinot the years before and between, and Adam Yates in 2016.

With Alberto Contador, Pierre Rolland, Quintana and Pinot there are four former winners on the start list for this year's edition, but all of them are too old to figh for white by now, so we will definitely see a new winner, and Jan Ullrich and Andy Schleck will remain the only riders to have won the jersey three times.

Favorites for the Maillot blanc:

In 2016 Adam Yates took the jersey, and although he is not on the start list this year, the jersey may keep in the family, with his brother Simon Yates among the favorite, already having finished 6th in the Vuelta last year. But he can expect fierce competition from Louis Meintjes, who has the highest place finish in the Tour from all eligible participants, namely 8th in 2016.

Emanuel Buchmann recently finished the Critérium du Dauphiné in an impressive 7th place and also Pierre Latour has already showed that he can fight with the best on a good day, but both are likely to slip into a domestique's role when the race progresses, as Rafal Majka and Roman Bardet are the clear team captains and gc men in their teams.

All other contenders will most likely not be strong enough in the high mountains to really stay in touch to win the jersey, but eying it early on during the first week may be a target of course. Tiesj Benoot for example has already mentioned, that he aims to take over the jersey in Luxembourg or on the Planche des Belles Filles.
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