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hiero

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Stage: 9 Nantua - Chambéry, 181.00 km
« on: June 24, 2017, 00:07 »
YEEEEEhaaaaaaaaaaa!
[1]
Ok, boys and girls! Get your hats on and get ready! Today we will see GC fireworks! Either they will fail, or they will go, but there will be fireworks! If somebody managed to get time on stage 5, expect them to try and increase that today - or defend it! The yellow jersey  #yellow could be decided today, and the remainder of the tour could be pretty much ordained, or not. There are some chances on later stages to change the GC, but if it is Froome in the lead by today, it will be an uphill battle for the remaining contenders (pun intended).

The sprinters will be in the autobus early, possibly in the first 10 km (Cote des Neyrolles). The GC teams get a back to back "warmup", with the Col de la Biche followed by 14 km descending and immediately going back up on the hard side of the Grand Colombier. Another whizzer of a descent, and some lumpy time in the valley before they finally hit the base of Mont du Chat with about 40 km left. Off the top, then another 12 km thrill ride of a descent and they will be 13 km from the finish. Any chasing will be done and over by then, unless there is only a small gap at the base. But it won't be a relaxed ride into the finish - every man who wants GC will have to give it everything they've got today.








 1. For those of you unfamiliar with Dr. Strangelove, you can watch a clip of Sgt Kong riding the bomb on Youtube.  
One of the great descents of all time.
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  • « Last Edit: June 27, 2017, 16:13 by hiero »
    Eeyore sez . . .

    t-72

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    t-72

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    Re: Stage: 9 Nantua - Chambéry, 181.00 km
    « Reply #2 on: July 08, 2017, 21:01 »
    OK, this will obviously be a GRAND stage. All the GC riders kept their powder dry today, only some minor skirmishes towards the end of the stage. Everyone's ready for the THE BIG DAY.

    The final mountain is obviously clipped from the final stage of this year's Criterium de Dauphine, and y'all know by know that was the stage of the year a long time before it's over. Or should we be a little less deterministic and hope for great entertainment tomorrow? Any way you look at it, I'll stick my head in the wind and try to come up with some predictions.

    1. Those that did not compete in the Dauphine this year are at a disadvantage.
    That's right, I am looking at you - #movistar Nairo Quintana - I hope you have been on private recon rides and rehearsed that downhill. You need to improve your climbing for tomorrow (but the profile with many long and steep climbs is made for you, if you are on peak form now). However, most of all - you need to give it all you have on the downhill.

    2. #ag2r Romain Bardet is ready for that. What? Riding the downhill of his life.
    You don't mentally prepare with giant slalom champion Alexis Pinturault for a ride into your team's hometown unless you take those turn seriously. Personally, I hope he has not completely adopted Pinturault's do-or-die style as it's not FIS in charge of the safety here.

    3. #sky knows Bardet is up to something and have prepared. All the time since the 2015 downhill attack on the Col d'Allos (Criterium  de Dauphine stage 5) Chris Froome has feared Bardet's downhill skills and courage. It seems like the team has been on a training camp or two with downhill classes since then. In this years Criterium de Dauphine, Froome appeared to equal Bardet on the downhills, and then there is a special class for Kwiatkowski who made a minute on Porte where no one else dared on the final day. The extreme downhill abilities may be a weapon for #sky against #bmc.

    4. On the other side, the best climbers need to make their mark now. There is a time trial at the end of this Tour, and there are quite few that can expect to keep up with #sky Froome on that. #bmc Richie Porte could actually do that, but I still think he's got to make up for the time he already lost,  somewhere going uphill, and I think this is the stage where he'll have to start. It is just that, I am not sure if he is able to. Good in the Dauphine and poor in the tour has been a problem for many GC riders, peaking too early - and this year, spring belonged to Porte - but July may be different.
    #trek Alberto Contador has taken a different approach, riding cautiously in the Dauphine. After loosing a number of stage races with a margin just slightly more than #didata Edvald Boasson Hagen looses sprints this year, there have been questions concerning his form. Contador has said it has been according to plan, his single focus this year has been the Tour de France. So now, this Sunday, is the time to show that his plan works. To win, he needs to outclimb quite a few other good climbers but that is not unrealistic. (The last time he focused single-mindedly on TdF was 2013 and it was a flop. His team manager at the time,  Bjarne Riis, says Contador's preparations this year are wrong!)

    So there's the all-around-favorite and the veteran wanna-be-nemesis threatening #yellow Froome. Among the climbers, there's also the man of the hour: Nobody could keep up with #astana Fabio Aru as he was racing up hill to meet the podium girls on the plank earlier this week.  He also rode a decent Dauphiné. His mad-horse-galloping style attacks scream "here I come" to everyone and everyone seems to move out of the way. He doesn't sneak away like his teammate #astana Fuglsang. He slams the door and leaves the peloton. Can they bring him back tomorrow? I don't think so, he is my favorite for the stage win, one more time.

    In addition to "captain obvious" mentioned above, there's someone we may have forgotten: it is the sneaky indian. His top capacity on long climbs is mythical, and he just gets better if they are steeper. The altitude this time, however, may be a little bit on the low side for his altitude-native strength in thin air to be decisive (see: Izoard).  However, if there are questions regarding #trek Contador's form there are real doubts when it comes to #movistar Quintana as he hasn't really been seen at the front since the Giro stage to Blockhaus.  Will the condor attack or will he soar in silence, surveying the carnage from the battle between the other contenders before he moves in to silently steal the prey? And if he passes the top of the Mont du Chat alone, will he be alone with a chasing pack of wolves closing in on him? Quintana hasn't so far impressed early on in any tour (maybe 2013) and I think he'll be in top 10 but it reamins to be seen how far back and --- who will be the leader after tomorrow.

    I think #sky Froome is going to ride down the Mont du Chat like he had stolen the Pinarello tomorrow. Of the GC contenders, he is the one with a tradition for establishing a big gap early on and then try to defend it. A few seconds isn't a big gap, I think he would like to score some more before setting #sky in defensive mode for a week or so. The Dauphine performance showed he has prepared for this, so I find it unlikely he'll be happy with defending yellow tomorrow. He'll try to open the gap even more and I think it is going to happen on the Mont du Chat. Bardet may be happy if he is able to hang on to Froome's wheels.

    I hope we get a fair race without safety incidents and that the best rider wins. The competition is still very much open. I also hope that's someone else this time and not Froome, because I want to see the TdF play out a little differently this time. I think #astana Fabio Aru looks like the rider closest to achieve this, but there are a few others who might want to stop my prediction from going in, perhaps strongest of all is Ag2R rider in Ag2Rs hometown: #ag2r Romain Bardet.




     
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  • hiero

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    Re: Stage: 9 Nantua - Chambéry, 181.00 km
    « Reply #3 on: July 09, 2017, 00:28 »
    I had a problem with stage 8 - it wasn't a good stage for an attack from the peloton. Seeing this, I rather didn't expect an attack from the #yellow wanna-be's, but I certainly hoped for it. I felt that if one of those wannabe's REALLY had confidence, we would see a good attack attempt. I didn't think it would succeed, but the wannabe's should have been there attacking just to make the point, and to work over Sky.

    They didn't do it. Pfaugh.

    Today, stage 9, is do or die. If the GC wannabe's don't make time today, they won't. Not ever. Froome will finish in yellow, and Sky will have held the #yellow from start to finish. And THAT is disgusting, if you ask me. It is also probably a record.
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  • AG

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    Re: Stage: 9 Nantua - Chambéry, 181.00 km
    « Reply #4 on: July 09, 2017, 00:40 »
    there is a very long valley between the early climbsa nd Mont du Chat - so I am not really expecting much until the last climb.

    BUT - on that last climb .... Froome has been practicing his descending, and Bardet has shown his skill.  Porte on the other hand has shown his weakness in this area so I am fully expecting it to be full gas down that mountain from all the GC guys to try and exploit that.

    Should be great.
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Stage: 9 Nantua - Chambéry, 181.00 km
    « Reply #5 on: July 09, 2017, 07:24 »
    If hype = great stage this will be huge

    So being normal it will be a flop  :lol
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  • Of course, if this turns out someday to be the industry standard integrated handlebar-computer-braking solution then I'll eat my kevlar-reinforced aerodynamic hat.

    Larri Nov 12, 2014

    Mellow Velo

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    Re: Stage: 9 Nantua - Chambéry, 181.00 km
    « Reply #6 on: July 09, 2017, 07:58 »
     We could get the breakaway sorted inside the first 11kms today. If not it won't happened until about 55kms covered.
    I have a nagging feeling that the weather is going to be a big factor in how it plays out.



     Either it's going to neutralise the descents, or a major player/s is/are going to crash out.
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  • "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.

    t-72

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    Re: Stage: 9 Nantua - Chambéry, 181.00 km
    « Reply #7 on: July 09, 2017, 08:08 »
    This is a looong hard stage, not a short explosive 3- mountain combo. The climbs are mostly on minor roads (the kind that makes you wonder why on earth they built one there) and the road surface is quite rough making the climbs even harder and the downhills more challenging, or dangerous if you prefer.
    It is not likely that GC riders will attack early, but the two first HC's will likely see some sort of tactical battle between the GC teams, not the GC riders. They'll try to get some riders up the road for themselves and they'll also try to drop all the gregários for the other teams. Sky #sky seems to have all the pieces to play with for this game, but a team I totally forgot about in the preview above, #orica Orica and #astana Astana also know how to play and are present in full force. For #ag2r AG2R they are now here with Latour as the possible key piece that have been missing in their lineup earlier, and if he gets up the road he could be very valuable. #movistar Movistar of course, are now missing that key piece after Valverde's disastrous first stage. The will most likely follow a conservative approach but may push the pace in the peloton a little on the early climbs if Sky and BMC have riders showing signs of weakness.
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  • Carlo Algatrensig

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    Re: Stage: 9 Nantua - Chambéry, 181.00 km
    « Reply #8 on: July 09, 2017, 08:43 »
    If hype = great stage this will be huge

    So being normal it will be a flop  :lol

    I have a feeling it will be a bit like stage 9 from 2013. It will be a bit mad early on. We'll see declarations that the stage is "Epic" from people. It'll then go dull for most of the rest of the stage until someone gets away near the top of the final climb or on the descent.
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  • t-72

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    Re: Stage: 9 Nantua - Chambéry, 181.00 km
    « Reply #9 on: July 09, 2017, 10:19 »
    I have a feeling it will be a bit like stage 9 from 2013. It will be a bit mad early on. We'll see declarations that the stage is "Epic" from people. It'll then go dull for most of the rest of the stage until someone gets away near the top of the final climb or on the descent.
    That was the one after aix-3-Domaines, right? A lot has changed, that was 4 years ago!
    ...and the main players were Froome, Quintana, Contador, Fuglsang and Dan Martin...  :slow

    Ehm... we have Porte on his own now, and Bardet is a bit older, a force to be reckoned with and not a promising youngster. And, thankfully, there's Fabio Aru. That can twist the outcome a bit.
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  • t-72

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    Re: Stage: 9 Nantua - Chambéry, 181.00 km
    « Reply #10 on: July 09, 2017, 16:33 »
    I'll just leave this here (stole it from Trudgin's twitter):


    https://twitter.com/Trudgin/status/884056310353989635


    PS: there is a video clip, click the link if it does not load automatically.
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  • Slapshot

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    Re: Stage: 9 Nantua - Chambéry, 181.00 km
    « Reply #11 on: July 09, 2017, 16:38 »
    Carnage...... that about covers it!
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  • Leadbelly

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    t-72

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    Re: Stage: 9 Nantua - Chambéry, 181.00 km
    « Reply #13 on: July 09, 2017, 16:58 »
    Contador duties:

    DNF #tdfjumbo Gesink
    DNF #uae Mori
    DNF #tdfsky Thomas
    DNF #bmc Porte
    OTL #fdj le train tricolor (Konovalovas, Guarnieri, Delage and Demare)
    OTL #quickstep Trentin (! that was surprising, he ususally climbs well)
    OTL #didata Renshaw
    OTL #bora Sagan (the other guy  :) )
    OTL #tdfjumbo Jos van Emden

    Now...what where did I forget...

    Oh.... the loosers
    #trek Contador is probably out of the GC
    #quickstep Dan Martin viped out by #Porte
    #movistar Quintana  down quite a bit more than expected. New Giro-Tour schedule does not work?




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  • « Last Edit: July 09, 2017, 17:20 by t-72 »

    t-72

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    Re: Stage: 9 Nantua - Chambéry, 181.00 km
    « Reply #14 on: July 09, 2017, 17:03 »
    https://twitter.com/EquipeFDJ/status/884076640262926340

    They decide to take out the whole train, even if Guarnieri is capable of creating results on his own.  :S :-x :angry
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Stage: 9 Nantua - Chambéry, 181.00 km
    « Reply #15 on: July 09, 2017, 17:21 »
    http://cyclingpro.net/spaziociclismo/tour-2017/tour-de-france-2017-aru-mi-fermato-mi-detto-froome-un-problema/

    Quote
    The rider of Astana was the first to break through the inertia of the Mont du Chat, with an attack that will arouse controversy, having arrived in conjunction with a mechanical problem for Chris Froome . "I had not noticed, there was so many people at the roadside - said after the finish - Then they told me on the radio that Froome had had a problem and was there in 15 seconds and I stopped ."

    Precisely with white Kenyan in the course of the ascent Mont du Chat there was a contact which, however, was the result of chance. " We touched because Chris was going to fall - said the rider of the Four Moors - immediately asked I apologize , it was not a voluntary gesture."
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Stage: 9 Nantua - Chambéry, 181.00 km
    « Reply #16 on: July 09, 2017, 17:33 »
    I'll just leave this here (stole it from Trudgin's twitter):


    https://twitter.com/Trudgin/status/884056310353989635


    PS: there is a video clip, click the link if it does not load automatically.

    Sounds like a someone having really bad trip.
    I've always said it, Kirby is on drugs. :lol
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Stage: 9 Nantua - Chambéry, 181.00 km
    « Reply #17 on: July 09, 2017, 18:27 »
    Thank God for Sunweb.

    If not the stage which will have 100000 words written about was a really crap stage. So much negative impact

    I guess Uran was alright would have been great except the JV factor lolz
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  • Flo

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    Re: Stage: 9 Nantua - Chambéry, 181.00 km
    « Reply #18 on: July 09, 2017, 18:31 »
    They decide to take out the whole train, even if Guarnieri is capable of creating results on his own.  :S :-x :angry
    Jacopo suffered a lot since his crash, I don't think he was there voluntarily. I guess they'll ride for Cimo now.
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  • RIP Keith

    Mellow Velo

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    Re: Stage: 9 Nantua - Chambéry, 181.00 km
    « Reply #19 on: July 09, 2017, 18:58 »
    The medical bill:

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  • hiero

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    Re: Stage: 9 Nantua - Chambéry, 181.00 km
    « Reply #20 on: July 09, 2017, 20:47 »
    Carnage...... that about covers it!

    Yup. That about covers it. I took a look at the vid of Porte crashing. Somebody on the chat said he was on a bad line, and couldn't correct it - looks about right to me. Couldn't or didn't dare to - nobody to his outside at the moment he went off the road - at least it sure didn't look like anybody there in the clip. A bad error.
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  • hiero

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    Re: Stage: 9 Nantua - Chambéry, 181.00 km
    « Reply #21 on: July 09, 2017, 20:51 »
    Sounds like a someone having really bad trip.
    I've always said it, Kirby is on drugs. :lol

    I've mostly thought he was entertaining, although sometimes vapid. But he's been pulling some real Phils lately, what with comments re Valverde, and now this. See trudgin's twitter feed for the Valverde comment.
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Stage: 9 Nantua - Chambéry, 181.00 km
    « Reply #22 on: July 09, 2017, 21:04 »
    Porte hit Aru's back wheel. Corrected went left and then rapidly right from 72.3 km/h to 0
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  • t-72

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    Re: Stage: 9 Nantua - Chambéry, 181.00 km
    « Reply #23 on: July 09, 2017, 21:33 »
    Jacopo suffered a lot since his crash, I don't think he was there voluntarily. I guess they'll ride for Cimo now.

    Yep, thanks for reminding me about that. Suddenly I  remembered that he also became a father right before the Tour, and he probably CBF'ed was lacking motivation to struggle on. Probably he had a phone call with his wife yesterday and thought geeeez, what am I doing here?
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  • hiero

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    Re: Stage: 9 Nantua - Chambéry, 181.00 km
    « Reply #24 on: July 09, 2017, 22:22 »
    Porte hit Aru's back wheel. Corrected went left and then rapidly right from 72.3 km/h to 0

    Still a bad error on Porte's part - but I can't see any bit of that claim from the video - not at all.

    The only vids I've seen are replays of this, with different language commentators:
    http://www.steephill.tv/players/720/nbcsports4/?title=Richie+Porte+crashes+descending+Mt+Chat,+Stage+9&dashboard=tour-de-france&id=pXFsvD4rlgqx&yr=2017

    If Porte tapped wheels, it would have to be about the time the following clip of his group starts, and neither he nor Aru are visible. Time-wise, it would be about right - tapping a wheel could have set him on that bad line that he couldn't correct in time.
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