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Armchair Cyclist

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Re: 2017 Tour de France CQ Game
« Reply #60 on: July 21, 2017, 17:42 »
Stage 19 Which way around the roundabout?

A day that will not be causing much change in the game:

BOASSON HAGEN Edvald   80   0   team
ARNDT Nikias   50   0   team
KEUKELEIRE Jens   35   0   team
BENNATI Daniele   25   0   team
FROOME Chris   20   2   teams
DE GENDT Thomas   15   4   teams
CHAVANEL Sylvain   10   0   team
GESBERT Elie   5   4   teams
BAKELANTS Jan   3   1   team
ALBASINI Michael   2   0   team
PERICHON Pierre-Luc   1   0   team

1=   Armchair_Cyclist, BicycleBoy   20
3   Hayabusa   18 (De Gendt and Bakelants)
4=   Mellow_Velo, RattaKuningas, Trudgin   15
7=   Al_Pacino, Comodoro, LosBrolin, Yellow_Knight   5
11=   Everyone else   0

Standings
Hayabusa and Mellow Velo both scored, slightly, today.  Froome has now got more points in this category than Kittel, but Froome teams had less back up quality in their teams, so are still 19th and 20th in this classification.
1   Fauniera   810
1   Squire   810
3   ThePirate81   776
4   Hugo87   765
5   Hayabusa   700
6   GPBlanco   658
7   Mellow_Velo   639
8   AmisVelo   635
9   Search   622
10   JustSomeGuy   612


Yellow points

DE GENDT Thomas   20   4   teams
FROOME Chris   15   2   teams
BAKELANTS Jan   7   1   team
KISERLOVSKI Robert   6   12   teams
GESBERT Elie   5   4   teams
...
PAUWELS Serge   -5   6   teams
BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos Alberto   -6   22   teams
CINK Ondrej   -20   9   teams


On the day

1   Hayabusa   21
2   Mellow_Velo   14
3   RattaKuningas   9
4   Armchair_Cyclist   8
5   Al_Pacino   5
6   Yellow_Knight   4
7   LosBrolin   3
7   Search   3
9   LightBing   2
10   AmisVelo   0
10   Bikeracer33   0
10   Fauniera   0
10   JustSomeGuy   0
10   Kabete   0
15   Comodoro   -1
16   Vladimir   -3
17   CaptCavman   -4
18   BicycleBoy   -5
18   GeraintTooFast   -5
18   Hugo87   -5
21   DJW   -6
21   Laarsland   -6
23   Shalgo   -7
23   Squire   -7
25   Trudgin   -8
26   AG   -9
26   Rote_Laterne   -9
28   Kazistuta   -10
28   Leadbelly   -10
28   ThePirate81   -10
31   Scrool07   -15
32   Hakkie2   -19
33   BluesInTheBottle   -20
33   Carlo_Algatrensig   -20
35   Josedin   -22
36   GPBlanco   -25
37   Minessa   -26
38   Del1962   -34
   Collective_Wisdom   -2

Standings:
The only change in the top ten is Armchair Cyclist overhauling The Pirate81.  Only 5 teams move up at all, only Ratta Kuninga movs by 2 places.

1   AmisVelo   2036
2   Fauniera   1870
3   Squire   1848
4   Hugo87   1762
5   Laarsland   1620
6   Al_Pacino   1562
7   Vladimir   1507
8   Armchair_Cyclist   1491
9   ThePirate81   1483
10   Hayabusa   1446
11   GPBlanco   1306
12   Search   1303
13   BicycleBoy   1202
14   Minessa   1137
15   Mellow_Velo   1116
16   Kabete   1109
17   JustSomeGuy   1100
18   Shalgo   1087
19   DJW   1063
20   Kazistuta   1035
21   Leadbelly   1012
22   BluesInTheBottle   998
23   LosBrolin   990
24   RattaKuningas   981
25   Comodoro   977
26   Hakkie2   971
27   Carlo_Algatrensig   893
28   Scrool07   863
29   GeraintTooFast   814
30   Rote_Laterne   724
31   Bikeracer33   690
32   Yellow_Knight   643
33   Del1962   610
34   LightBing   597
35   CaptCavman   447
36   Trudgin   360
37   Josedin   332
38   AG   303
   Collective_Wisdom   1325

In the absence of Kittel, I can't imagine Sunday having any more impact on the game than today did (or than Sunday will in the real event), so it is all down to tomorrow.
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  • « Last Edit: July 21, 2017, 18:05 by Armchair Cyclist »

    just some guy

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    Re: 2017 Tour de France CQ Game
    « Reply #61 on: July 21, 2017, 17:49 »
    Still doing alright without Porte
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  • Of course, if this turns out someday to be the industry standard integrated handlebar-computer-braking solution then I'll eat my kevlar-reinforced aerodynamic hat.

    Larri Nov 12, 2014

    Armchair Cyclist

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    Re: 2017 Tour de France CQ Game
    « Reply #62 on: July 21, 2017, 18:11 »
    Still doing alright without Porte

    Alright, but out of the 12 Porte teams, Kabete is just above you.
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    Re: 2017 Tour de France CQ Game
    « Reply #63 on: July 22, 2017, 20:22 »
    Stage 20  "Do a lap of the football pitch before you finish": sounds like a PE lesson from my schooldays.

    Green points
    All of the points are as good as guaranteed now, but this seems to have become a category in its own right.

    BODNAR Maciej   80   0   team
    FROOME Chris   55   2   teams
    KWIATKOWSKI Michal   50   0   team
    MARTIN Tony   25   1   team
    IMPEY Daryl   15   1   team
    CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto   10   1   team
    ARNDT Nikias   5   0   team
    URAN URAN Rigoberto   3   3   teams
    KÜNG Stefan   2   2   teams
    CHAVANEL Sylvain   1   0   team

    1=   Armchair_Cyclist, BicycleBoy   55
    3=   AG   25 (Martin)
    3=   Scrool07   25 (Contador & Martin)
    5=   Fauniera, Laarsland, Squire   3
    8=   GPBlanco, Josedin   2
    10=   Everyone else   0

    1   Fauniera   813
    1   Squire   813
    3   ThePirate81   776
    4   Hugo87   765
    5   Hayabusa   700
    6   GPBlanco   660
    7   Mellow_Velo   639
    8   AmisVelo   635
    9   Search   622
    10   JustSomeGuy   612

    Unless Ben Swift is first or second tomorrow for ThePirate, or Boudat cracks the top ten to give Fauniera the edge, this category looks destined to be a tie.

    Yellow points

    URAN URAN Rigoberto   75   3   teams
    FROOME Chris   55   2   teams
    CONTADOR VELASCO Alberto   30   1   team
    MARTIN Tony   25   1   team
    IMPEY Daryl   18   1   team
    KÜNG Stefan   2   2   teams
    DE GENDT Thomas   1   4   teams
    BRAJKOVIC Janez   1   6   teams
    ...
    MARTIN Daniel   -1   1   team
    BROWN Nathan   -1   4   teams
    TALANSKY Andrew   -1   3   teams
    NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel   -10   2   teams
    BARGUIL Warren   -21   6   teams
    BARDET Romain   -70   5   teams


    On the day
    1   Squire   76
    2   Fauniera   75
    3   Laarsland   74
    4   Armchair_Cyclist   56
    5   BicycleBoy   55
    6   Scrool07   27
    7   AG   25
    8   GPBlanco   2
    8   Josedin   2
    10   Del1962   1
    10   GeraintTooFast   1
    10   Mellow_Velo   1
    10   RattaKuningas   1
    10   Shalgo   1
    10   Trudgin   1
    16   Bikeracer33   0
    16   CaptCavman   0
    16   Carlo_Algatrensig   0
    16   Kabete   0
    16   Kazistuta   0
    16   Leadbelly   0
    16   LosBrolin   0
    16   Minessa   0
    16   Rote_Laterne   0
    25   Comodoro   -1
    25   JustSomeGuy   -1
    25   LightBing   -1
    25   Search   -1
    25   Yellow_Knight   -1
    30   Hakkie2   -10
    31   Hayabusa   -20
    32   ThePirate81   -21
    33   Vladimir   -32
    34   Hugo87   -69
    35   DJW   -70
    36   BluesInTheBottle   -71
    37   Al_Pacino   -91
    37   AmisVelo   -91
       Collective_Wisdom   0

    3 of this morning's top 5 are the top three net scorers of the day, while the overnight leader is joint last.  And that means....

    Standings:

    1   AmisVelo   1945
    1   Fauniera   1945
    3   Squire   1924
    4   Laarsland   1694
    5   Hugo87   1693
    6   Armchair_Cyclist   1547
    7   Vladimir   1475
    8   Al_Pacino   1471
    9   ThePirate81   1462
    10   Hayabusa   1426
    11   GPBlanco   1308
    12   Search   1302
    13   BicycleBoy   1257
    14   Minessa   1137
    15   Mellow_Velo   1117
    16   Kabete   1109
    17   JustSomeGuy   1099
    18   Shalgo   1088
    19   Kazistuta   1035
    20   Leadbelly   1012
    21   DJW   993
    22   LosBrolin   990
    23   RattaKuningas   982
    24   Comodoro   976
    25   Hakkie2   961
    26   BluesInTheBottle   927
    27   Carlo_Algatrensig   893
    28   Scrool07   890
    29   GeraintTooFast   815
    30   Rote_Laterne   724
    31   Bikeracer33   690
    32   Yellow_Knight   642
    33   Del1962   611
    34   LightBing   596
    35   CaptCavman   447
    36   Trudgin   361
    37   Josedin   334
    38   AG   328
       Collective_Wisdom   1325


    Yes: we have a draw.  I had expected Uran and Contador to pass Bardet and Barguil respectively, and I was aware that hat would give Amis Velo a lead of just 6 points.  But then Uran took 3 points for 8th on the stage, halving the margin.  And that placing raised Uran to 8th behind Matthews in the points competition: 2 more points in favour of Fauniera.  And in that move, he overtook Barguil, losing him a point for his placing in that category, and with that point the gap between our two leaders disappeared.

    Other than Fauniera's rise to share the top step, only 8 other teams improved their positions on the day: Laarsland has as narrow an advantage as is possible over Hugo87 for 4th, and I move up 2 places (riser of the day) to 6th. 

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  • Armchair Cyclist

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    Re: 2017 Tour de France CQ Game
    « Reply #64 on: July 22, 2017, 23:27 »
    So will it stay a draw?
    We can ignore what might happen to the riders they have in common (ARU Fabio, MEINTJES Louis, BOUDAT Thomas, KISERLOVSKI Robert, BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos Alberto, VOECKLER Thomas)

    So that leaves the potential and vulnerabilities of  BARDET Romain, BARGUIL Warren and CIMOLAI Davide (for Amis Velo) pitched against those of KITTEL Marcel, URAN URAN Rigoberto and KOZHATAYEV Bakhtiyar for Fauniera.

    Kittel can clearly neither gain nor lose points at this stage.
    Cimolai is probably the only one of the 6 with even a slim chance of a top ten place: he did get 6th in the bunch sprint in Pau.

    So long as all five remaining in the race finish tomorrow, their GC points are most unlikely to change (the three well placed riders won't let it happen, and the other 2 are so far away from the top 50 that they will get neither more than less than the 20 "other finishers" points).  Equally the only way KoM rankings will make a difference is if three riders in the top 12 of that ranking fail to finish, which won't happen.

    So the real potential for change is in the standings in the Points category.  No-one expects Uran or Barguil to improve on their standings in that category tomorrow, but there are still sprinters who could overtake them.  And whereas Uran is susceptible to losing 3 points, Barguil's vulnerability is only 1 point.

    The best remaining sprinters (Matthews, Boassen Hagen, Colbrelli, Greipel, Kristoff) can't overtake the two key riders for the simple reason that they are already ahead of them, but there are highly accomplished sprinters who definitely have them within range, so there are three riders who hold the destination of the game in their gift: Groenewegen, Degenkolb and Bouhanni. 
    If more than one rider passes Uran, advantage is with Amis Velo; if none passes Uran, but one or more overhauls Bardet, then advantage to Fauniera.    Otherwise it remains a tie.

    To pass Barguil
    Groenewegen needs just a top ten finish, or 11th+15th at intermediate, or 12th+14th etc down to 15th + 11th, or top 9 at intermediate regardless of finish position.
    Degenkolb needs top 2 at finish, or 3rd + 14th, or 4th + 12th, 5th + 10th, 6th +8th, 7th + 6th, 8th +4th, 10th+3rd, 12th+2nd or 15th +1st.
    Bouhanni needs just 1 more point, so 2nd, 3rd +13th, 4th +11th, 5th +9th, 6th + 7th, 7th + 5th, 8th + 4th, 9th + 3rd, 11th + 2nd or 14th +1st.


    To pass Uran:
    Groenewegen needs top 6, or 7th+15th, 8th + 13th, 9th + 11th, 10th + 10th, 11th + 9th, 12th + 8th, 13+7, 14+6 or 15+5
    Degenkolb needs 2nd, 3rd + 8th, 4th + 6th, 5th + 4th, 6th + 3rd, 7th + 2nd or 9th + 1st
    or Bouhanni needs 2nd, 3rd + 7th, 4th + 5th, 5th + 4th, 6th + 3rd, 7th + 2nd or 8th + 1st

    Confused yet?
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  • « Last Edit: July 23, 2017, 00:34 by Armchair Cyclist »

    Armchair Cyclist

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    Re: 2017 Tour de France CQ Game
    « Reply #65 on: July 23, 2017, 18:36 »
    Cimolai did get a top ten place, so before doing the calculations, I think that is a 3 point win for Amis Velo.

    So I'll have to put up with his gloating. He isn't a poster on either of the forums (occasional lurker) that host the game, but I used to teach his daughter and I invited him to join in then, and I still email him the details and links. Then he goes and beats me most events.
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  • Armchair Cyclist

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    Re: 2017 Tour de France CQ Game
    « Reply #66 on: July 23, 2017, 22:40 »
    Stage 21  The final analysis

    Green points

    Perhaps not the parade of sprinting talent that we usually have on the Champs Elysees, and maybe that's why they are not major picks in the game.  No yellow jersey bonus today.

    GROENEWEGEN Dylan   80   2   teams
    GREIPEL André   50   1   team
    BOASSON HAGEN Edvald   35   0   team
    BOUHANNI Nacer   25   1   team
    KRISTOFF Alexander   15   0   team
    BOZIC Borut   10   6   teams
    CIMOLAI Davide   5   2   teams
    PERICHON Pierre-Luc   3   0   team
    SELIG Rüdiger   2   0   team
    BENNATI Daniele   1   0   team

    1=   GeraintTooFast, Kazistuta   80
    3   RattaKuningas   50
    4   Trudgin   25
    5=   BicycleBoy, BluesInTheBottle, JustSomeGuy, Kabete, LightBing, Vladimir   10
    11=   AmisVelo, Carlo_Algatrensig   5
    13   AG   0

    Final standings in the minor classification:
    1   Fauniera   813
    1   Squire   813
    3   ThePirate81   776
    4   Hugo87   765
    5   Hayabusa   700
    6   Kazistuta   690
    7   GPBlanco   660
    8   AmisVelo   640
    9   Mellow_Velo   639
    10   GeraintTooFast   627
    11   JustSomeGuy   622
    11   Search   622
    13   Kabete   620
    14   Shalgo   610
    15   Minessa   585
    16   BicycleBoy   527
    17   Vladimir   521
    18   Armchair_Cyclist   507
    18   Laarsland   507
    20   Bikeracer33   501
    21   Al_Pacino   451
    22   LightBing   418
    23   RattaKuningas   386
    24   Scrool07   356
    25   LosBrolin   250
    26   Hakkie2   245
    27   DJW   241
    28   BluesInTheBottle   239
    28   CaptCavman   239
    30   Yellow_Knight   230
    31   Carlo_Algatrensig   228
    32   Leadbelly   227
    33   Comodoro   216
    34   Rote_Laterne   213
    35   Trudgin   101
    36   AG   77
    36   Josedin   77
    38   Del1962   48
       Collective_Wisdom   619

    Froome outscored Kittel in this category because of leader's bonuses, but it is Kittel teams that dominate with 14 of the top 15 (Amis Velo being the exception).  The route to success here is not necessarily sprinters (Kazistuta's sprinter dominated team only came 6th): Barguil and Uran outscore Groenewegen and Demare;Aru, Bardet and Thomas beat Greipel and Kristoff.

    No splitting the top two: they have the same riders who took green points, and any riders held by one butnot the other managed no top ten finishes.

    Yellow points
    GROENEWEGEN Dylan   85   2   teams
    GREIPEL André   50   1   team
    BOUHANNI Nacer   25   1   team
    BOZIC Borut   10   6   teams
    CIMOLAI Davide   5   2   teams
    NAVARRO GARCIA Daniel   2   11   teams
    ...
    BARGUIL Warren   -1   6   teams
    URAN URAN Rigoberto   -1   3   teams
    MARTIN Daniel   -1   1   team
    DE GENDT Thomas   -1   4   teams
    FROOME Chris   -2   2   teams


    On the day:
    1   GeraintTooFast   87
    2   Kazistuta   85
    3   RattaKuningas   49
    4   Trudgin   18
    5   LightBing   12
    6   BluesInTheBottle   10
    6   JustSomeGuy   10
    6   Kabete   10
    9   Vladimir   9
    10   BicycleBoy   8
    11   Carlo_Algatrensig   5
    12   AmisVelo   4
    13   AG   2
    13   CaptCavman   2
    13   DJW   2
    13   Hakkie2   2
    13   Hugo87   2
    13   Leadbelly   2
    13   Rote_Laterne   2
    20   Armchair_Cyclist   0
    20   Bikeracer33   0
    20   Comodoro   0
    20   GPBlanco   0
    20   Hayabusa   0
    20   LosBrolin   0
    20   Minessa   0
    20   Search   0
    20   Shalgo   0
    20   Yellow_Knight   0
    30   Al_Pacino   -1
    30   Fauniera   -1
    30   Mellow_Velo   -1
    30   Scrool07   -1
    30   Squire   -1
    30   ThePirate81   -1
    36   Laarsland   -2
    37   Del1962   -6
    37   Josedin   -6 
       Collective_Wisdom   1

    Final standings
    That 7th place from Cimolai is what made the difference in the end:  It gives the victory to Amis Velo.  The constantly flip-flopping battle between Hugo and Laarsland is finally settled in Hugo's favour for 4th, and Kazistuta finishes with a flourish and a 4 place ride.

    1   AmisVelo   1949
    2   Fauniera   1944
    3   Squire   1923
    4   Hugo87   1695
    5   Laarsland   1692
    6   Armchair_Cyclist   1547
    7   Vladimir   1484
    8   Al_Pacino   1470
    9   ThePirate81   1461
    10   Hayabusa   1426
    11   GPBlanco   1308
    12   Search   1302
    13   BicycleBoy   1265
    14   Minessa   1137
    15   Kazistuta   1120
    16   Kabete   1119
    17   Mellow_Velo   1116
    18   JustSomeGuy   1109
    19   Shalgo   1088
    20   RattaKuningas   1031
    21   Leadbelly   1014
    22   DJW   995
    23   LosBrolin   990
    24   Comodoro   976
    25   Hakkie2   963
    26   BluesInTheBottle   937
    27   GeraintTooFast   902
    28   Carlo_Algatrensig   898
    29   Scrool07   889
    30   Rote_Laterne   726
    31   Bikeracer33   690
    32   Yellow_Knight   642
    33   LightBing   608
    34   Del1962   605
    35   CaptCavman   449
    36   Trudgin   379
    37   AG   330
    38   Josedin   328
       Collective_Wisdom   1326



    As with the Giro, teams with the race winner were not really in the hunt for the victory, but I'm fairly happy with my top ten and 2/3 of the points coming from Froome. 

    I'll do a bit more number analysis tomorrow.

    Until then, congratulations to those who are happy that they did well, especially Amis Velo, Fauniera and Squire, commiserations to those who feel they had hard luck (that'll mainly be teams picking Kittel, Porte, Cavendish, Majka, Fuglsang, Izaguirre...), and thanks to everyone for having a go.

    The balance of preferences as expressed before the game was that next year we keep the same budgets but drop to 8 riders per team, as will be the case in the races.  Is that what you are happy with?

    See you for the Vuelta (although I am away for the first weekend of that, so it might be a bit awkward to get it going)
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    [November 17, 2017, 18:12]


    Re: Mens transfers and Rumors 2017-18 by Leadbelly
    [November 17, 2017, 05:25]


    Re: Retirement announcements by search
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    Re: The Academy of Cycling by Leadbelly
    [November 15, 2017, 20:35]



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