collapse


hiero

  • Road Captain
  • Country: us
  • Posts: 1127
  • Liked: 824
Stage 17: Villadiego --> Los Machucos
« on: August 29, 2017, 14:37 »
Today presents an opportunity. So far, the stage routes have been more traditional, with little opportunity, other than the traditional massively hard climbs. Stage 17 will be a bad day for someone. The question is, who? It could also be a great day for the GC contest.

We are past the  2nd rest day now. The second week, with challenging mountains (stage 11), or mountain finishes (stages 12, 14, and 15) presented plenty of chances to demonstrate who has the climbing chops this year. Stage 16 was the  intermediate TT, where Froome is expected to dominate. The GC battle could be all but set in stone - or it might still be on. Today could see a lucky and smart group effort succeed in making up a lot of time for GC favorites who are behind. The final climb, on the Alto de los Muchacos, will be for the serious contenders alone.

The day starts on the central plateau in Spain's historic interior. This is traditionally a region of small farmholdings, and tons of history. The route heads north, into and across the Cantabrian mountains, to the province of Cantabria, on the northern coast of Spain. The scenery will change dramatically as we leave the dry and dusty interior and head into the moist and lush coastal region. Before we reach the coast, the route makes a u-turn and heads south, back into the Cantabrians, to attack the Alto de los Muchacos.

The first opportunity for action will be crossing the Cantabrians, at Portillo de Lunada. After heading south, the riders will take on the second climb, the Puerto de Alisas. The last climb of the day is a monster. The Alto de los Machucos presents sections greater than 25% gradient. This is a 9 km climb, on a narrow, concrete, corrugated, uneven surface of a road. A fall on this surface will be like on sandpaper and gravel - there will be blood.[1]

If a team, or a group of teams can engage a Froomigal style attack on one of the first climbs, and isolate Froome, we could see an upset in GC (assuming Froome is still in, or close to, the  #red). If Froome is not in #red for some reason, this stage will present a battle royale, with potential to be a far more exciting stage than Saturday's climb up the Angliru. This stage could also set up enough fatigue that tomorrow's medium mountain stage could be ripe for a GC assault.





 1. If you want to see photos of this incredibly bad road go here: Cycling Weekly "Incredibly Steep Climb"
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: August 29, 2017, 15:40 by hiero, Reason: draft complete - post finalized »
    Eeyore sez . . .

    Mellow Velo

    • Road Captain
    • Country: wales
    • Posts: 1965
    • Liked: 1709
    • Awards: 2015 CQ Vuelta Game winnerVelogames Classics Champion 20142013 CQ Ranking Giro Game
    Re: Stage 17: Villadiego --> Los Machucos
    « Reply #1 on: September 06, 2017, 08:24 »
     Looks like we will get a 60km battle to get into the break. Orica, Astana and Trek will be trying to join the usual suspects, plus teams now desperate for a win, in going up the road.
    After that, and 30-40 kms of calm, Contador will probably launch on the opening second cat, seventy kms from the finish.
    Astana could send Aru up the road, as he is far enough back on the GC, but my guess is that he won't play ball.
    So, maybe Lopez will join Berto again.
    Orica will go all out for the the stage.
    Keldeman will probably ride in a similar fashion to Uran at the Tour.
    Zakarin will look to attack Wilco. So, probably late, if he survives the crippling gradients.
    Perhaps the biggest question of all is: how much does Nibali fancy the downhill between the climbs?
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: September 06, 2017, 09:11 by Mellow Velo »
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.

    search

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 9519
    • Liked: 9239
    • Awards: Member of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Reigning Worlds Prediction ChampReigning Autumn Classics Prediction ChampMember of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Stage 17: Villadiego --> Los Machucos
    « Reply #2 on: September 06, 2017, 09:23 »
    Looks like we will get a 60km battle to get into the break.

    and for whatever reason, we get to see it on TV. Live from the start :cool
  • ReplyReply
  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    Mellow Velo

    • Road Captain
    • Country: wales
    • Posts: 1965
    • Liked: 1709
    • Awards: 2015 CQ Vuelta Game winnerVelogames Classics Champion 20142013 CQ Ranking Giro Game
    Re: Stage 17: Villadiego --> Los Machucos
    « Reply #3 on: September 06, 2017, 18:11 »
    A great win for Aqua Blue!

    Nibali has a chance, now. Tomorrow is potentially another day on which to attack Sky, before the Angliru.
    Froome is definitely weakening. He couldn't even hold Nieve's wheel at the end.
    Amazing ride from Contador, who's form is going in the opposite direction, having raced pretty much the same, July schedule.

     Los Machucos joins this place in froome's hall of infamy.

  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 9519
    • Liked: 9239
    • Awards: Member of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Reigning Worlds Prediction ChampReigning Autumn Classics Prediction ChampMember of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Stage 17: Villadiego --> Los Machucos
    « Reply #4 on: September 06, 2017, 18:26 »
    yeah, decent stage, good winner. Good introduction for Fuente De tomorrow. Now there's hope again :cool
  • ReplyReply

  • t-72

    • National Champion
    • Country: no
    • Posts: 946
    • Liked: 1452
    Re: Stage 17: Villadiego --> Los Machucos
    « Reply #5 on: September 06, 2017, 22:44 »
    I am a bit surprised by the results here, I thought #sky Froome would be really good on this climb. Maybe it was the appearance of raindrops that sets him back a bit, but I still think it will take snowflakes before Nibali gets the better of him. #astana Lopez another disappointment today (but I always thought he'd do better on autostrada climbs, think swiss quality not goat's path).
    Contador's resurgence here reminds me of Chris Horner except he doesn't smile as much.
    The Angliru might turn into something quite interesting if this theme continues.

  • ReplyReply

  • hiero

    • Road Captain
    • Country: us
    • Posts: 1127
    • Liked: 824
    Re: Stage 17: Villadiego --> Los Machucos
    « Reply #6 on: September 07, 2017, 03:14 »
    I am a bit surprised by the results here, I thought #sky Froome would be really good on this climb. Maybe it was the appearance of raindrops that sets him back a bit, but I still think it will take snowflakes before Nibali gets the better of him. #astana Lopez another disappointment today (but I always thought he'd do better on autostrada climbs, think swiss quality not goat's path).
    Contador's resurgence here reminds me of Chris Horner except he doesn't smile as much.
    The Angliru might turn into something quite interesting if this theme continues.  . . .
    Snowflakes:lol
    Lopez - you are not the first person I've heard that from. Apparently the mountain roads in Columbia are wide, good roads, not goat paths. Think Swiss! ;)  According to this theory, he should not be doing well on a climb like los Muchacos.
    Contador: please, please, no. Yes, I can understand the parallel. I won't say it did not occur to me as well. But knock on wood, he seems to have been wiser these past years. Pray that wisdom continues. We certainly can NOT say we have not seen Contador attack, time and time again, in every GT he has entered, whenever he seems to have enough in his legs.
  • ReplyReply

  • hiero

    • Road Captain
    • Country: us
    • Posts: 1127
    • Liked: 824
    Re: Stage 17: Villadiego --> Los Machucos
    « Reply #7 on: September 07, 2017, 13:45 »
    Matteo Trentin, having a bit of fun on the climb!

    https://twitter.com/AlvaroGonzalez_/status/905507804479442948
  • ReplyReply

  •  



    Top
    Back to top