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Stage 16: Circuito de Navarra › Logroño
« on: September 04, 2017, 10:06 »
Stage 16: Circuito de Navarra › Logroño

The day of truth?! Not sure if anyone will be left to challenge Froome after this stage...



there are some wind gusts, but generally the weather seems to be fine:




Starting order:



Riders of interest:

ORDEN HORA EQ. NOMBRE APELLIDO
2      13:35:00      #orica      TUFT Svein
                  
8      13:41:00      #katusha      TAARAMÄE Rein
                  
24      13:57:00      #quickstep      LAMPAERT Yves
                  
45      14:18:00      #sunweb      HAGA Chad
                  
57      14:30:00      #bmc      CARUSO Damiano
58      14:31:00      #bahrain      BOARO Manuele
                  
66      14:39:00      #sunweb      *KÄMNA Lennard
                  
89      15:02:00      #bmc      DENNIS Rohan
                  
102      15:15:00      #lotto      DE GENDT Thomas
                  
104      15:17:00      #fdj      ROUX Anthony
                  
106      15:19:00      #fdj      LUDVIGSSON Tobias
                  
125      15:38:00      #quickstep      *JUNGELS Bob
                  
130      15:43:00      #uae      COSTA Rui
                  
132      15:45:00      #movistar      OLIVEIRA Nelson
                  
138      15:51:00      #sky      *MOSCON Gianni
139      15:52:00      #astana      SANCHEZ Luis León
                  
149      16:12:00      #jumbo      CLEMENT Stef
150      16:14:00      #uae      ATAPUMA HURTADO Jhon
151      16:16:00      #ag2r      BARDET Romain
152      16:18:00      #movistar      MORENO Daniel
153      16:20:00      #bmc      ROCHE Nicolas
154      16:22:00      #cajarural      PARDILLA BELLON Sergio
155      16:24:00      #sky      NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel
156      16:26:00      #uae      *MEINTJES Louis
157      16:28:00      #bmc      VAN GARDEREN Tejay
158      16:30:00      #jumbo      KRUIJSWIJK Steven
159      16:32:00      #quickstep      DE LA CRUZ M. David
160      16:34:00      #sky      POELS Wout
161      16:36:00      #trek      CONTADOR VELASCO
162      16:38:00      #cannondale      WOODS Michael
163      16:40:00      #astana      ARU Fabio
164      16:42:00      #astana      *LOPEZ MORENO Miguel
165      16:44:00      #orica      CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan
166      16:46:00      #sunweb      KELDERMAN Wilco
167      16:48:00      #katusha      ZAKARIN Ilnur
168      16:50:00      #bahrain      NIBALI Vincenzo
169      16:52:00      #sky      FROOME Chris
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  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

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    Re: Stage 16: Circuito de Navarra › Logroño
    « Reply #1 on: September 04, 2017, 17:05 »
    well, this should open up the fight for the win quite a bit...

    Quote
    Rohan Dennis and Kilian Frankiny have been forced to withdraw from the Vuelta a España on the second rest day due to illness and injuries respectively.

    Dennis has developed an upper respiratory tract infection, BMC Racing Team doctor, Dr. Daniele Zaccaria confirmed.

    “Yesterday after a very hard stage we had a long transfer from Sierra Nevada to the north of Spain. Overnight Rohan Dennis developed an upper respiratory tract infection and is not fit to continue racing tomorrow. Taking Rohan’s upcoming goal of the UCI World Championships into consideration, it is in Rohan’s best interests to stop now and recover fully before he goes to Norway,” Dr. Zaccaria said.

    Dennis, the Australian time trial champion, is disappointed to withdraw from racing before the stage 16 individual time trial.

    “I had a bit of a dry throat during the travel after stage 15 and then I woke up in the middle of the night in a full sweat and with a bad throat and it only got worse by this morning. It’s difficult to pull out now knowing that I’m one of the favorites for the time trial tomorrow. But my priority is getting my health right before the UCI World Championships so I know it’s the right thing to do,” Dennis said.

    http://www.bmc-switzerland.com/au-en/experience/the-feedzone/dennis_and_frankiny_forced_to_withdraw_from_vuelta_a_espana/
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  • t-72

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    Re: Stage 16: Circuito de Navarra › Logroño
    « Reply #2 on: September 04, 2017, 20:41 »
    @Velofacts take on who are the best TT riders: I am not sure this is "facts" - seems more like output from their mathematical equation. The equation could need some more work?

    https://twitter.com/velofacts/status/904780439365316609

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  • hiero

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    Re: Stage 16: Circuito de Navarra › Logroño
    « Reply #3 on: September 05, 2017, 01:19 »
    well, this should open up the fight for the win quite a bit...



    With tongue firmly in cheek, eh?   :s

    @Velofacts take on who are the best TT riders:  . . .


    Man, i really wish that I had an opportunity to work with people doing data-mining and using it like this. Lovely, absolutely lovely. Said completely soberly. No irony, nothing - I love crap like this.

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  • Eeyore sez . . .

    LukasCPH

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    Re: Stage 16: Circuito de Navarra › Logroño
    « Reply #4 on: September 05, 2017, 10:01 »
    @Velofacts take on who are the best TT riders: I am not sure this is "facts" - seems more like output from their mathematical equation.
    This is presenting the end result without the calculations you made in between.
    Not very mathematical or scientific.

    It's hard to disagree with the end result, though ...
    ...although I have to say, Johan Le Bon in the rank as Froome? :o :slow
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  • 2017 0711|CYCLING PR Manager; 2016 Stölting Content Editor
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    LukasCPH

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    Re: Stage 16: Circuito de Navarra › Logroño
    « Reply #5 on: September 05, 2017, 18:00 »
    So, Froome won another GT time trial, taking half a minute on Kelderman, a minute on Nibali, and way more than that on anyone else.


    Nibali looks content just following Froome and maybe taking a few seconds here and there, but I don't see that getting him the two minutes he now needs to make up.
    Kelderman is more than busy trying to defend his podium spot (and I think he'll still lose it), and in my opinion isn't anywhere near able to challenge Froome.
    Zakarin doesn't look likely to gain more time than Nibali, so while he may challenge for a podium place, Froome is simply out of reach.
    Contador rides his last-ever GT with lots of panache - but five minutes? That would take some extraordinary things. And not just on one stage, but on several. He might be able to do it (if we're generous), but he's running out of opportunities.
    Superman is doing great, but he's just so far down by now. He can take time on Froome on every of the remaining mountain stages - but like Contador, he's running out of opportunities. There simply aren't that many mountain stages left, he'd need to take 2+ minutes on each and every one of them.
    Everyone from Aru and down is just not on the same rung of the ladder.

    In short: This Vuelta is Froome's to lose.
    That said, so was last year's Vuelta after two weeks, and then Formigal happened. Never say never.
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  • killswitch

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    Re: Stage 16: Circuito de Navarra › Logroño
    « Reply #6 on: September 05, 2017, 18:29 »
    So, Froome won another GT time trial, taking half a minute on Kelderman, a minute on Nibali, and way more than that on anyone else.

    ...

    In short: This Vuelta is Froome's to lose.
    That said, so was last year's Vuelta after two weeks, and then Formigal happened. Never say never.

    Another Froomigal is unlikely to happen. Last year Sky went to the Vuelta with a cobbled together team of tired and out of form riders while this year a flat/medium mountains domestique like Puccio can hold climbers like MAL and a resurgent Contador close for several kilometres on the last climb of a multi-mountain stage at the end of the second week...
    Not to mention Moscon (who disrespected the Italian jersey today to be fresh for tomorrow), Poels who is peaking in the 3rd week and just did the TT of his life and the always dependable King in the North.
    I don't think Nibali is content, he's just feeling powerless but I still expect him to try and break Sky along with Contador.
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    Re: Stage 16: Circuito de Navarra › Logroño
    « Reply #7 on: September 05, 2017, 20:18 »
    yeah, Nibali and Zakarin will try I think, but taking more than a minute looks unlikely at the moment. And for Contador and Lopez, now 5 minutes down, it's probably too much to ask for. But Lopez' comeback really reminded me of Santi Perez in 2004... so who knows.
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  • t-72

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    Re: Stage 16: Circuito de Navarra › Logroño
    « Reply #8 on: September 05, 2017, 21:14 »
    Agree with those above, the GC spot #1 looks cemented "unless something extraordinary happens", #2 is perhaps more contestable and #3 is definetly still up for grabs and it may be there we will see action in the rest of the week with strong climbers many minutes down and good TT'ers with decent climbing currently in the lead. Question is if all of this can take place while Froome just leans back and collects his big bag of red t-shirts or if a general explosiveness in the race can lead to some poor decisions.

    The stage to Formigal became what it was not so much when Contador's group split from Froome's group but wen Froome's group split from the one behind (where the most of Sky was sitting) A hot-headed Froome did not wait for his team, but started chasing with only one or two team members present.

    There's still room for a really bad call, but Sky looks so much better than they did last year (then again my last year lasting impression is that Formigal stage and the last mountain stage...perhaps a bit biased by the time that passed). It looks really unlikely they will fail this time again.
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  • hiero

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    Re: Stage 16: Circuito de Navarra › Logroño
    « Reply #9 on: September 06, 2017, 01:05 »
    Absolutely agree with previous - and said as much in another thread somewhere.

    Froome AND Sky learned from last year - and both are making a concerted effort to amend their ways. Froome is very aware of los Machucos - probably too aware to be taken advantage of. And, as pointed out, Froomigal was as much, or more, a failure of the team as it was of Froome. Froome is NEVER isolated early - he is ALWAYS the last one isolated - except that one time.

    So the odds for Froome to lose at this point have to be astronomic. But we should see some valiant attempts yet.
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Stage 16: Circuito de Navarra › Logroño
    « Reply #10 on: September 06, 2017, 08:15 »
    No surprises in the ITT as far as I'm concerened.
    If anything Nibali did slightly better than I expected. I am sure that on a 40km flat ITT course, he would settle for third every time, especially with less than a minute lost.
     Kelderman, in second, rode to his potential. Both Contador and Zakarin went very well.
    Realistically, nobody could expect more from the guys chasing Froome in the GC, than to fill the top 5 on the stage.
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  • "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.

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    Re: Stage 16: Circuito de Navarra › Logroño
    « Reply #11 on: September 06, 2017, 08:57 »
    the gaps were more or less as expected, yeah, Contador and Zakarin a better than what I thought, Chaves worse. What I didn't expect though were five gc riders in the Top 5. Maybe the wind was a bit for favorable in the end?

    Here are the split times btw:

    INT IINT IIFIN
    1 #sky FROOME CHRIS15:23 (4.)<-18:20 (1.)->33:43 (1.)<-13:17 (1.)->47:00
    2 #sunweb KELDERMAN WILCO15:00 (1.)<-18:50 (3.)->33:50 (2.)<-13:39 (3.)->47:29
    3 #bahrain NIBALI VINCENZO15:25 (8.)<-18:56 (5.)->34:21 (5.)<-13:36 (2.)->47:57
    4 #trek CONTADOR ALBERTO15:18 (3.)<-18:59 (8.)->34:17 (4.)<-13:42 (5.)->47:59
    5 #katusha ZAKARIN ILNUR15:16 (2.)<-18:53 (4.)->34:09 (3.)<-13:50 (8.)->47:59
    6 #fdj LUDVIGSSON TOBIAS15:23 (6.)<-18:58 (6.)->34:21 (6.)<-13:46 (7.)->48:07
    7 #sky POELS WOUT15:44 (20.)<-18:48 (2.)->34:32 (7.)<-13:39 (4.)->48:11
    8 #sunweb KÄMNA LENNARD15:39 (16.)<-19:01 (9.)->34:40 (9.)<-13:50 (9.)->48:30
    9 #quickstep JUNGELS BOB15:23 (5.)<-19:12 (11.)->34:35 (8.)<-14:06 (16.)->48:41
    10 #bmc OSS DANIEL15:59 (33.)<-18:58 (7.)->34:57 (11.)<-13:52 (10.)->48:49
    11 #ag2r GOUGEARD ALEXIS15:34 (12.)<-19:12 (10.)->34:46 (10.)<-14:04 (15.)->48:50
    12 #bmc VAN GARDEREN TEJAY15:37 (14.)<-19:22 (12.)->34:59 (12.)<-13:56 (12.)->48:55
    13 #quickstep LAMPAERT YVES15:27 (10.)<-19:38 (19.)->35:05 (15.)<-14:02 (13.)->49:07
    14 #jumbo KRUIJSWIJK STEVEN15:46 (21.)<-19:39 (21.)->35:25 (23.)<-13:44 (6.)->49:09
    15 #quickstep TRENTIN MATTEO15:24 (7.)<-19:45 (25.)->35:09 (17.)<-14:03 (14.)->49:12
    16 #jumbo CLEMENT STEF15:43 (17.)<-19:40 (22.)->35:23 (21.)<-13:52 (11.)->49:15
    17 #quickstep TERPSTRA NIKI15:43 (19.)<-19:23 (13.)->35:06 (16.)<-14:11 (19.)->49:17
    18 #aquablue KONING PETER15:26 (9.)<-19:33 (18.)->34:59 (13.)<-14:20 (28.)->49:19
    19 #lotto DE GENDT THOMAS15:33 (11.)<-19:26 (15.)->34:59 (14.)<-14:26 (36.)->49:25
    20 #quickstep DE LA CRUZ DAVID15:47 (25.)<-19:30 (16.)->35:17 (18.)<-14:10 (18.)->49:27
    21 #aquablue HANSEN LASSE NORMAN15:56 (31.)<-19:23 (14.)->35:19 (20.)<-14:11 (20.)->49:30
    22 #astana LOPEZ MIGUEL15:46 (22.)<-19:32 (17.)->35:18 (19.)<-14:16 (25.)->49:34
    23 #astana LUTSENKO ALEXEY15:48 (26.)<-19:44 (24.)->35:32 (25.)<-14:14 (22.)->49:46
    24 #movistar OLIVEIRA NELSON15:36 (13.)<-19:52 (28.)->35:28 (24.)<-14:19 (27.)->49:47
    25 #astana SANCHEZ LUIS LEÓN15:46 (24.)<-19:38 (20.)->35:24 (22.)<-14:25 (34.)->49:49
    26 #astana ARU FABIO16:07 (37.)<-19:49 (27.)->35:56 (32.)<-14:07 (17.)->50:03
    27 #cofidis ROSSETTO STÉPHANE15:46 (23.)<-20:00 (32.)->35:46 (27.)<-14:22 (30.)->50:08
    28 #fdj ROUX ANTHONY15:43 (18.)<-20:04 (37.)->35:47 (30.)<-14:24 (32.)->50:11
    29 #bmc ROCHE NICOLAS15:48 (27.)<-19:57 (30.)->35:45 (26.)<-14:27 (37.)->50:12
    30 #cajarural MAS BONET LUIS15:53 (29.)<-20:07 (43.)->36:00 (34.)<-14:14 (23.)->50:14
    31 #quickstep ALAPHILIPPE JULIAN15:50 (28.)<-19:56 (29.)->35:46 (28.)<-14:34 (43.)->50:20
    32 #trek IRIZAR MARKEL15:54 (30.)<-20:04 (38.)->35:58 (33.)<-14:22 (31.)->50:20
    33 #jumbo BOUWMAN KOEN15:39 (15.)<-20:16 (57.)->35:55 (31.)<-14:35 (48.)->50:30
    34 #sunweb KRAGH SØREN16:33 (79.)<-19:46 (26.)->36:19 (38.)<-14:12 (21.)->50:31
    35 #lotto MONFORT MAXIME15:56 (32.)<-20:07 (42.)->36:03 (36.)<-14:34 (44.)->50:37
    36 #movistar SOLER MARC16:03 (35.)<-19:43 (23.)->35:46 (29.)<-14:51 (62.)->50:37
    37 #cannondale WOODS MICHAEL16:21 (56.)<-20:04 (39.)->36:25 (44.)<-14:15 (24.)->50:40
    38 #uae MEINTJES LOUIS16:11 (41.)<-20:13 (52.)->36:24 (43.)<-14:18 (26.)->50:42
    39 #sky STANNARD IAN16:12 (43.)<-20:00 (33.)->36:12 (37.)<-14:41 (56.)->50:53
    40 #ag2r HOULE HUGO16:18 (53.)<-20:02 (35.)->36:20 (40.)<-14:34 (46.)->50:54
    41 #cofidis PEREZ ANTHONY16:00 (34.)<-20:02 (34.)->36:02 (35.)<-14:52 (64.)->50:54
    42 #bmc VENTOSO FRANCISCO16:14 (47.)<-20:08 (44.)->36:22 (41.)<-14:34 (47.)->50:56
    43 #aquablue GATE AARON16:09 (38.)<-20:27 (71.)->36:36 (53.)<-14:21 (29.)->50:57
    44 #cajarural REIS RAFAEL16:24 (63.)<-20:05 (40.)->36:29 (46.)<-14:31 (39.)->51:00
    45 #orica CHAVES ESTEBAN16:18 (52.)<-20:18 (61.)->36:36 (54.)<-14:25 (35.)->51:01
    46 #movistar MORENO DANIEL16:06 (36.)<-20:23 (64.)->36:29 (47.)<-14:32 (41.)->51:01
    47 #uae POLANC JAN16:19 (54.)<-20:23 (65.)->36:42 (60.)<-14:24 (33.)->51:06
    48 #sky KNEES CHRISTIAN16:25 (66.)<-20:12 (50.)->36:37 (56.)<-14:36 (49.)->51:13
    49 #uae MOHORIC MATEJ16:14 (46.)<-20:05 (41.)->36:19 (39.)<-14:55 (67.)->51:14
    50 #orica YATES ADAM16:34 (81.)<-20:03 (36.)->36:37 (57.)<-14:38 (52.)->51:15
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  • Capt_Cavman

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    Re: Stage 16: Circuito de Navarra › Logroño
    « Reply #12 on: September 06, 2017, 11:07 »
    No surprises in the ITT as far as I'm concerened.
    If anything Nibali did slightly better than I expected. I am sure that on a 40km flat ITT course, he would settle for third every time, especially with less than a minute lost.
     Kelderman, in second, rode to his potential. Both Contador and Zakarin went very well.
    Realistically, nobody could expect more from the guys chasing Froome in the GC, than to fill the top 5 on the stage.

    You could turn that on its head and say that Froome didn't do as well as he might have hoped; I wonder if he's running out of steam.

    I don't quite get why Nibali's gone from threat to outsider since Saturday. Since then he's lost 6 seconds on one climb (having attacked and left to dangle in the breeze) but then finished within a minute on the TT, a result that exceeded anyone's prediction. I get that he's lost one opportunity to make up time but surely he's as close as anyone expected him to be following the last two stages' racing?
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