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Cordi

  • Sunday Rider
  • Country: es
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Re: 2018-20 Emerging Riders CQ game
« Reply #60 on: November 28, 2020, 20:41 »
Yupi!  :lol
 
2 games and 2 podium spots!
2nd & 3rd tho, a little poulidoresque... And I'm afraid next year the record is going to stop.
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  • Leadbelly

    • World Champion
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 11696
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    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: 2018-20 Emerging Riders CQ game
    « Reply #61 on: December 06, 2020, 18:00 »
    Not bad at all from Team CT in this edition.

    Quote
    Leadbelly

                ASGREEN Kasper   
                BURGAUDEAU Mathieu   *
                BURKE Jack   *
                DEWULF Stan   
                EYOB Metkel   *
                FOSS Tobias Svendsen   
                FOUCHE James   *
                HIRSCHI Marc   
                JOHANSEN Julius   *
                LAUK Karl Patrick   
                PEAK Barnabas   *
                PIDCOCK Thomas   
                POGACAR Tadej   
                PRONSKIY Vadim   
                STANNARD Robert   
                THIJSSEN Gerben   
                VANHOUCKE Harm   
                VEYHE Torkil   *

    I can't remember if Pogacar's future transfer to UAE was already known when I picked him or not. It feels like it's pushing the boundaries of my self-enforced rule if a big transfer is lined up, but hey, his presence really helped here.

    Him, Hirschi and Asgreen were the big point scorers. There are a couple others who I obviously picked a year or two (or three) too early for this game and there's a few who really bombed - Burgaudeau who I thought might be the next Calmejane for example.

    Anyway thanks Armchair for running the game as always. :cool
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  • Cordi

    • Sunday Rider
    • Country: es
    • Posts: 33
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    Re: 2018-20 Emerging Riders CQ game
    « Reply #62 on: December 15, 2020, 00:15 »
    Not bad at all from Team CT in this edition.

    I can't remember if Pogacar's future transfer to UAE was already known when I picked him or not. It feels like it's pushing the boundaries of my self-enforced rule if a big transfer is lined up, but hey, his presence really helped here.




    I think it wasn't known. This team was done after 2017 season, first season of Pogi in u23 ranks. He won Paix and Avenir later on, in 2018.
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  • Armchair Cyclist

    • Classics Winner
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    • Awards: 2020 Tour de France Prediction Champ2020 Worlds Prediction Champ2019 Spring Classics Prediction Champ2018 Tour de France CQ game winner
    Re: 2018-20 Emerging Riders CQ game
    « Reply #63 on: January 11, 2021, 19:27 »
    The final analysis
    Firstly, Year 3 months 11b-12 (16th November to the end of the year) changed none of the scores at all, so the final table is exactly as it was last month, so now Squire can be officially congratulated, as can Fauniera and Cordi on their podiums.


    The best possible team
    Rider Points Teams
    POGACAR Tadej         3924      16
    EVENEPOEL Remco         1870      0
    JAKOBSEN Fabio         1839      27
    VLASOV Aleksandr         1802      0
    PHILIPSEN Jasper         1757      21
    HIRSCHI Marc         1632      7
    HIGUITA GARCIA Sergio Andres         1536      0
    ASGREEN Kasper         1529      2
    MADOUAS Valentin         1488      10
    GANNA Filippo         1480      23
    SOSA CUERVO Ivan Ramiro         1293      12
    ALMEIDA Joao Pedro Gonçalves         1290      0
    HODEG CHAGUI Alvaro Jose         1175      22
    BALLERINI Davide         1113      1
    DE GENDT Aimé         1038      1
    BOL Cees         983      1
    ARANBURU DEBA Alexander         936      0
    MCNULTY Brandon         886      18
    Of riders in the CQ era (emerging 1999 or later), Pogacar comes 4th in the rules of this game: behind Valverde, Sagan and Bernal, but ahead of any of the other 'greats' of this century.  I can't help but wonder what position Evenepoel will occupy in a year's time.

    That best possible selection would have scored 27571pts: Squire scored 65.1% of this, rather short of Madrazo's record of 69.5% in 2015-17, but still well ahead of anyone here.


    Of the top teams, who had who of these top selections?
    RankTeam Points Main riders
    1      Squire      17954 Pogacar/Jakobsen/Philipsen/Hirschi/Madouas/Ganna/Bol/McNulty
    2      Fauniera      17340 Pogacar/Philipsen/Hirschi/Madouas/Ganna/Sosa/Hodeg/McNulty
    3      Cordi333      16880 Pogacar/Jakobsen/Philipsen/Hirschi/Ganna/Hodeg/McNulty
    4      HugoKoblet      16785  Pogacar/Jakobsen/Philipsen/Madouas/Ganna/Hodeg
    5      Laarsland      16333 Pogacar/Jakobsen/Philipsen/Madouas/Ganna/Sosa
    6      Skidmark      16327 Pogacar/Jakobsen/Philipsen/Ganna/Hodeg/McNulty
    7      Kazistuta      15749 Pogacar/Jakobsen/Philipsen/Madouas/Ganna/McNulty
    8      Nathanptz      15641 Pogacar/Philipsen/Madouas/Sosa/Hodeg/McNulty
    9      AlyKaptan      15356 Pogacar/Jakobsen/Madouas/Ganna/Sosa/McNulty
    10      Comodoro      15305 Pogacar/Jakobsen/Philipsen/Sosa/Hodeg/McNulty
    Other than Bol (who could be said to hold the difference between Squire's win and coming second), the other unique picks to make the best possible team was Madrazo's choice: Ballerini and Aimé De Gendt for North American Scum.  Leadbelly and Lukas were the pair who went for Asgreen.
    Those were the only teams to finish ahead of the Collective Ignorance team (virtual 11th is the worst performance yet of this anti-selection, which has actually dropped down the table every edition of the game), featuring Evenepoel, Vlasov, Higuita, Almeida and Aranburu.



    2020 was not a great year for point scoring in CQ given the number of cancellations: only 31.9% of the games points came in year 3 (28.7 in Yr 1, 39.5 in year 2): in all previous editions year 3 has been the top scoring year by some amount.

    In order of the scores earned in 2020:
    Team Score at 31/12/19 rank at 31/12/19 2020 points Final position Change in year 3
    Squire      11565      1      6389      1      0
    Cordi333      10506      9      6374      3      6
    Fauniera      10985      2      6355      2      0
    HugoKoblet      10821      6      5964      4      2
    Kazistuta      10059      11      5690      7      4
    Skidmark      10647      8      5680      6      2
    Laarsland      10678      7      5655      5      2
    AlyKaptan      10165      10      5191      9      1
    Vladimir      8082      20      5097      17      3
    RoteLaterne      9126      15      4889      12      3
    LukasCPH      7900      23      4831      18      5
    Nathanptz      10829      5      4812      8      -3
    Comodoro      10857      3      4448      10      -7
    LosBrolin      9022      16      4361      15      1
    Leadbelly      5908      32      4337      29      3
    Karaev      10848      4      4230      11      -7
    TheAsian      9914      13      3975      13      0
    Kryvo      9424      14      3864      16      -2
    Armchair_Cyclist      7940      22      3578      22      0
    Ludwigzgz      9916      12      3521      14      -2
    Scrooll07      8874      18      3505      19      -1
    Flo      8305      19      3475      21      -2
    Hakkie2      8887      17      3339      20      -3
    JonEzeitza      7579      27      3249      26      1
    Blues_in_the_Bottle      7719      25      3184      25      0
    Joelsim      7373      29      3166      28      1
    Josedin      7971      21      3128      23      -2
    Madrazo      7646      26      3114      27      -1
    Shalgo      7899      24      3070      24      0
    AmisVelo      7549      28      2583      30      -2
    Monsieur_Hulot      7032      30      2450      31      -1
    DJW      6386      31      1949      32      -1
    NorthAmericanScum      4022      33      1713      33      0
    Trudgin      3151      34      1218      34      0
    CollectiveWisdom      11402            5784            
    CollectiveIgnorance      9381            5790         



    Collective Wisdom
    There were 34 teams, and while 119 different riders were chosen, there were 18 ( a team's worth) who were on 11 or more teams.  And they didn't do badly, apart from the perennially popular but disappointing in this game Albanese
    Rider Points Teams
    POGACAR Tadej      3924      16
    JAKOBSEN Fabio      1839      27
    PHILIPSEN Jasper      1757      21
    GANNA Filippo      1480      23
    SOSA CUERVO Ivan Ramiro      1293      12
    HODEG CHAGUI Alvaro Jose      1175      22
    MCNULTY Brandon      886      18
    KNOX James      820      14
    NARVAEZ PRADO Jhonatan Manuel      706      26
    RIABUSHENKO Aliaksandr      523      28
    BJERG Mikkel      500      18
    PADUN Mark      460      19
    EG Niklas      454      21
    PEDERSEN Casper Phillip      396      11
    RIVERA SERRANO Kevin      375      20
    CRAS Steff      295      13
    VANHOUCKE Harm      201      13
    ALBANESE Vincenzo      102      18

    This team would have come third overall, which is a best for the CW team in the 5 completed editions.  I'm not sure whether that speaks well of us (many of us chose many successful riders) or if it is a bad reflection on us (for nearly all of us, the ones that should have been fairly obvious that we omitted are better than the ones we picked instead)



    All Time lists
    Well, scarcely all time, but 5 rounds of the game have now been completed.  11 managers entered all of them (and I think have been in the subsequent ones too), and the top ten cumulative scores are:
    1 Skidmark 77902
    2      Ludwigzgz      72713
    3      Madrazo      72021
    4      Kazistuta      69381
    5      Vladimir      66653
    6      Flo      66644
    7      Rote Laterne      66290
    8      Comodoro      65563
    9      Armchair Cyclist      64235
    10      HugoKoblet      60967
    Ludwigzgz has moved up one spot since last year, Kazistuta and Vladimir 4 places each.  This was Hugo Koblet's 4th participation, but he beats two teams that have had one more go than him to make tenth.

    And to give those who have not been quite so consistent in entering, or moissed early editions, the best averages for those who have completed at least three games.
    1 Skidmark 15580
    2      HugoKoblet      15242
    3      Jakob747      14551
    4      Ludwigzgz      14543
    5      Alykaptan      14519
    6      AmisVelo      14449
    7      GPBlanco      14409
    8      Madrazo      14404
    9      MC_Mountain      14337
    10      Blues_in_the_Bottle      14295
    but the Collective Wisdom team has an average of 15698, and the Collective Ignorance team still leads the long term rankings with 16281.


    The failed picks

    If the presence of Vincenzo Albanese in the Collective Wisdom team is a bit of an embarrassment, that more than half of us picked a rider who has scored just over 100 points in three years, that is not the end of the story.  There are 31 riders that we picked who have gained fewer points than Albanese, 11 of them were picked by more than one of us, and one (Logan Owen) very nearly made the Collective Wisdom team. Two of them didn't manage a single point in the three years, and 28 of them are still eligible for the 2021-23 game.


    If that has not exhausted every piece of data you could hope to extract from the spreadsheet, and you still want to explore further, here it is.
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  • « Last Edit: January 12, 2021, 09:27 by Armchair Cyclist »

     



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