Murrjt

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Paris - Nice 2018
« on: February 26, 2018, 21:49 »
76th Paris-Nice


Taking place between 4th and 11th March, the first major European stage race in 2018 will start from Chatou in the Yvelines department and will present opportunities to all types of riders. Punchers will have pride of place on the very first day, before the turn of the sprinters, followed by riders strong on the flat during an individual time-trial halfway through the race in Saint-Etienne. The battle for the title could be fought by the climbers on the La Colmiane stage but the last day and its re-arranged route will provide plenty of opportunities for attacking riders before the final result on the shores of the Mediterranean in Nice.

Paris-Nice can be won by a mere matter of seconds. This scenario occurred last year with a two second victory by Sergio Henao over Alberto Contador, as well as in 2016 when Geraint Thomas finished the race four seconds ahead of Contador once again. For the 76th edition the race offers potential for surprises and gives priority to attacking riders. The Race to the Sun will start for the 9th consecutive time from the Yvelines department with a format that could once again give rise to a variety of scenarios


Parcours

Stage 1  »  Chatou  ›  Meudon   (135km)




The first stage will offer a chance for one of the puncheurs to seize the leaders jersey, there are a few short climbs preceding the last one however nothing that difficult, the stage culminates with a climb of 1.9km averaging 6%.

Weather: 10-12 degrees Celsius with a southerly wind of 9mph.

Stage 2  »  Orsonville  ›  Vierzon   (187km)



Should be one for the sprinters, there are a couple of sharp looking right hand turns just inside the last kilometer but it seems like the last 800m are in a straight line.

Weather: 9-10 degrees Celsius with a Southwesterly wind of 10mph.

Stage 3  »  Bourges  ›  Châtel-Guyon   (210km)



Another stage the sprinters will be targeting however the terrain is more favourable than the previous stage for a breakaway or indeed a sprint from a reduced peloton, a couple of climbs of around 5km @ 5% are the main difficulties and it also looks like there is a 1 kilometer climb with a similar gradient near the end. There is a roundabout and a couple of slight bends in the last ~500 meters which may play a part if a large group is contesting the win.

Stage 4 (ITT)  »  La Fouillouse  ›  Saint-Étienne   (18.4km)



The first part looks to be mainly just false flat before a gentle descent and a little more up and down but nothing too serious apart from maybe a short but steep bump near the end.

Stage 5  »  Salon-de-Provence  ›  Sisteron   (163.5km)



Perhaps the most likely chance for a break, if it doesn't go that way then it will depend entirely on how it's raced as there is the first, first category climb (11km @7%) of the race but it comes 90km from the end of the stage and there are only a couple of third category climbs following it.

Stage 6  »  Sisteron  ›  Vence   (188k)



The toughest stage so far with four second category climbs followed by the Cote de la Colle-sur-Loup, the latter peaks just under 10 kilometers from the line and is 1.8km long and averages 10%.

Stage 7  »  Nice  ›  Valdeblore La Colmiane   (175km)



The stage with the toughest test of this years Paris-Nice, 16.3km @ 6.2%, there are a few climbs before it but realistically it will come down to the final one. If we compare this to the penultimate stage last year it is not as hard, the final climb is similar but a tad easier however the run in is much simpler with no cat one immediately preceding it.

Stage 8  »  Nice  ›  Nice   (110km)



As with the last couple of years we conclude with a shortish stage containing multiple climbs whilst starting and finishing in Nice. The previous two years have provided some very exciting racing although one important element in that is missing. There are some differences compared with last years stage, the Col d'Eze is not the final climb (different side as well) and is further from the finishing line however it does come closer to the Cote de Peille. The final climb is the Col des Quatre Chemins which averages 5.5% over 5.5km and peaks with 10 kilometers remaining.

Overall Contenders

A pretty open race with a number of potential winners as far as I can see, with neither Bardet or Pinot riding home hopes rest with Barguil and Alaphilippe, I'd say the latter is more likely to win but the reasons he didn't last year may well still apply although as mentioned above there isn't a stage as hard as the one he cracked on last time. The other contenders in my opinion will be Fuglsang #astana Martin #uae Mollema #trek Poels Sergio Henao #sky Chaves #mitchelton Ion Izagirre #bahrain and my pick for the overall Zakarin #katusha.

Sprinters

A good field, main contenders may well be: Kristoff #uae Demare #groupama Bouhanni #cofidis Vivani #quickstep and Groenewegen #jumbo. There are also a number of sprinters maybe just a level below them including Bennett #bora who claimed a very good win here last year.
 

Teams

#worldtour

#ag2r #astana #bahrain #bmc #bora #didata #groupama #lotto #mitchelton #movistar #efd #quickstep #katusha #jumbo #sky #trek #uae

#proconti

#direct #fortuneo #cofidis #delko

Startlist

:twitter  :web

~pdf Paris-Nice 2018

Live Coverage



Previous Winners
2017   HENAO Sergio Luis *co
2016   THOMAS Geraint *gb
2015   PORTE Richie *au
2014   BETANCUR GOMEZ Carlos Alberto *co   
2013   PORTE Richie *au   
2012   WIGGINS Bradley *gb   
2011   MARTIN Tony *de
2010   CONTADOR Alberto *es   
2009   SANCHEZ Luis Leon *es
2008   REBELLIN Davide *it
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  • « Last Edit: March 01, 2018, 13:56 by Murrjt »

    t-72

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2018
    « Reply #1 on: February 26, 2018, 22:20 »
    Great work writing up a preview, in due time!  :cool


    Parcours

    Stage 1  »  Chatou  ›  Meudon   (135km)




    The first stage will offer a chance for one of the puncheurs to seize the leaders jersey, there are a few short climbs preceding the last one however nothing that difficult, the stage culminates with a climb of 1.9km averaging 6%.

    Stage 2  »  Orsonville  ›  Vierzon   (187km)



    Should be one for the sprinters, there are a couple of sharp looking right hand turns just inside the last kilometer but it seems like the last 800m are in a straight line.


    Just a comment, stage 1 and stage 2 - they look very much like last years, and maybe that's a parcours for a sprinter stage, for both of them but last year we had #fdj Demare beating #quickstep Alaphilippe on the first stage, from a very small group of about 10 remaining racers including Kristoff and Gilbert, Galoppin and Henao, with several if not most of the other GC favorites far far behind. The second stage was raced equally hard and #bmc Porte was caught out again but most of the others made it back to the front, as the course turned 90 degrees and the wind direction didn't favor the break anymore.

    So...are you sure you don't want to add some meteorology to the preview for those 2 stages? Just a little puff of wind from the side and they go from plain sailing to full tilt racing in no time, and the chances for seeing that in early March are quite high compared to in mid-July. Last year's stage 1 was maybe the best stage-race-stage of the season, but then ... I love watching the bordures form as the road crosses an open landscape!
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  • Murrjt

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2018
    « Reply #2 on: February 26, 2018, 23:29 »
    I've added some information in, not sure if that is exactly what you meant but those maps I've seen people do are probably beyond my abilities I'm afraid.

    Also I've just read elsewhere that Zakarin might not be in that good a shape early in the season so maybe not the best pick but I doubt anybody is betting off the back of my predictions so it doesn't really matter. :)

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2018
    « Reply #3 on: March 01, 2018, 10:38 »
    here are the interactive stage finishes via @raffilpt (Stage 7 still missing, for the moment):













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  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2018
    « Reply #4 on: March 01, 2018, 10:40 »
    so the time trial has more climbing than you could think from having a quick look at the official profile. That "false flat" at the beginning actually consists of ~6k at ~4%
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    Re: Paris - Nice 2018
    « Reply #5 on: March 03, 2018, 18:21 »
    tomorrow's finish is cobbled by the way. Doesn't look super tough (nor particularly steep), but street view may be a bit misleading

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2018
    « Reply #6 on: March 04, 2018, 18:05 »
    it turned out to be quite a leg-breaking finale, but #fdj Arnaud Demare just managed to hang on and nip #bahrain Gorka on the line, in a four-men photo finish





    there were some crashes earlier on, forcing #bmc Tejay to abandon. #katusha Zakarin and #uae Costa also dropped out of gc contention, I don't know if they were involved in the crashes or not though.

    #cofidis Jesus Herrada certainly was, limiting the damage to a 59s deficit though. Also #sunweb Sam Oomen (20s), #sky David de la Cruz (28s), #fortuneo Warren Barguil (34s) and #astana Fuglsang (1:38) lost some time.
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2018
    « Reply #7 on: March 04, 2018, 18:09 »
     Not your average stage one finish for Paris-Nice.
    A pity about the crash on the run in over some slick Paris streets.
    Scuppered one or two GC hopefuls almost before the race began but not quite the carnage of last year's echelons.
    I doubt anybody imagined it would in a blanket finish between two sprinters and two puncheurs, except maybe the ASO, in their dreams.

    I see that Search just beat me to it with the results. :fp
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    t-72

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2018
    « Reply #8 on: March 04, 2018, 22:15 »
    Not an average stage finish maybe but last year was quite similar and there's something familar with this Demare dude as well, there's something familiar,  I think he's been around these parts before.

    The stage itself was stressed and intense as usual for a first stage on small roads with many turns and intersections, but nothing like last year's carnage!

    GC status is a bit affected, this is a race that is often won by small gaps in the end..

    GC riders that lost  of time
    #bmc Van Garderen ... oua lott!
    #uae Costa did go down in that crash, definetly.     lost 17: mins


    GC riders that lost some time:
    #bmc Nicholas Roche

    #astana Jakob Fuglsang
    ... all in group 1 min 38 seconds down
    Fuglsang was involved in the fall in the finale, I think.

    #katusha Zakharin also involved in some falling..
    #cofidis Jesus Herrada

    #fortuneo WArren Barguil declared himself not a GC rider here
    #sunweb Sam Oomen 20 secs down

    and the GC riders that have only lost a litte:
    #trek Bauke Mollema
    #sky Sergio Henao
    #direct Lilan Calmejane
    #sky Wout Poels
    #uae Daniel Martin
    #mitchelton Johan Esteban Chaves
    #mitchelton Simon YAtes
    #jumbo Robert GEsing
    #ag2r Tony Gallopin
    #bora Felix Grosschartner
    #quickstep Julian Alaphilippe
    #lotto Tim Wellens
    #bahrain Gork Izaguirre

    Looking at this list I cannot help thinking that this is the best race that gets a 2nd tier GC field. Are the italians paying more for the stars?  For sure, it is not the quality of tv coverage that is the reason...

    Light winds forecast for tomorrow --> sprint coming up, and the sprinters here are good!

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2018
    « Reply #9 on: March 04, 2018, 22:43 »
    #fortuneo WArren Barguil declared himself not a GC rider here

    yeah, but he also said that he still aims at a top ~15 finish or something like that, despite being a bit overweight. And to be honest, given his non-existant time trial abilities... isn't that about the best he usually could hope for anyway?! ;)

    Zakarin initally was listed as finishing ~5 minutes behind by the way. Must have been transponder issues, it isn't quite as bad.
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    Re: Paris - Nice 2018
    « Reply #10 on: March 04, 2018, 22:55 »
    #cofidis Laporte really has upped his game this season by the way. Bouhanni looked pretty annoyed when he was caught by the camera with 10k to go or so. I wouldn't be too surprised if he has to play second fiddle tomorrow as well...
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    Re: Paris - Nice 2018
    « Reply #11 on: March 05, 2018, 06:12 »
    I wouldn't be too surprised if he has to play second fiddle tomorrow as well...

    I would pay good money to be a fly on the wall when they tell him on the bus this morning. :D
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2018
    « Reply #12 on: March 05, 2018, 07:59 »
    Looking at this list I cannot help thinking that this is the best race that gets a 2nd tier GC field. Are the italians paying more for the stars?  For sure, it is not the quality of tv coverage that is the reason...



    Maybe not the quality of tv coverage but the quantity, if my epg is to be believed! :)
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    Re: Paris - Nice 2018
    « Reply #13 on: March 05, 2018, 08:27 »
    I would pay good money to be a fly on the wall when they tell him on the bus this morning. :D

    unfortunately it's all for Bouhanni today ;). Confirmed in l'Equipe this morning

    « Quels sont les sprinteurs qui n’ont pas encore gagné cette année ?, interroge le manager nordiste en donnant aussitôt la réponse : Kittel et Bouhanni. Cela veut dire que lundi (aujourd’hui) on attend Nacer dans le rôle de leader du sprint. Avec un lanceur exceptionnel : Christophe La porte .» Message explicite complété par cette confidence :« Les cartes peuvent être rebattues pour Milan-San Remo (le 17 mars). Nacer a chuté à Doha et à Oman, on le sent crispé sur le vélo. C’est à prendre en considération s’il pleut car, si tu es crispé, tu ne peux pas descendre le Poggio tambour battant. »

    So Laporte could become leader for MSR though
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    Re: Paris - Nice 2018
    « Reply #14 on: March 05, 2018, 16:52 »
    well, they went for him indeed, but he didn't even make the first page on pcs:




    Viviani still looked in perfect position behind his train with 1k to go, but then missed the final corner, everything slowed down, and no one was able to challenge Groenewegen



    Demare finished in 4th, sticking to his approach of winning the first stage of Paris Nice (for the 3rd year in a row now) but (for the moment) nothing else

    Initially some gaps were given but in the end everyone got the same time in gc
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  • L'arri

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2018
    « Reply #15 on: March 05, 2018, 19:22 »
    Commentators in all languages are still forgetting to pick this guy in their prospects for the stage ahead. How much longer?  :P

    I hate to say it because I love the guy but I think it might be over for Greipel. He doesn't look on it at all nowadays. Nor does Degenkolb but at his age and with his status it's more concerning.  :(
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    t-72

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2018
    « Reply #16 on: March 05, 2018, 19:31 »
    #jumbo Amund Grøndal Jansen is not really a breakthrough rider. He's been going about quite quietly delivering leadouts and sprinters to great results since always. He's also capable of doing more than just that and still a developing rider. However, I really like his no-nonsense approach to giving comments and interviews. So, without further presentation,  here's an inside view of what today's stage was like:
    https://twitter.com/GroendahlJansen/status/970729487070646274

    translated: "4 hour restitution ride followed by 1 hour of kamikaze,  but if you are on the winning team,  that's a recipe for a good day too."
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2018
    « Reply #17 on: March 06, 2018, 16:25 »
    Watched today a bit behind, so couldn't chat.

    A cracking little stage that.
    Loads of action over the last 30kms and it could be that the overall was won today.
    Lulu has 38 seconds, the ITT tomorrow and very strong team.
    What is left is not the hardest set of finishing stages to overcome.
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    Re: Paris - Nice 2018
    « Reply #18 on: March 06, 2018, 18:17 »
    yeah, quite a good stage. Lulu has often struggled on longer climbs in the past, so this is far from over, but giving him almost a minute surely doesn't sound like a particular good idea...

    Poels was unlucky with the mechanical but Sky worked hard in the 2nd group to bring him back without a time loss to the other favorites. So no one of note (apart from #ef Tom Jelte Slagter maybe) didn't manage to make the cut

    Hivert played it smart, letting Lulu most of the work. Deserved win for him. Good so see #delko Remy back in front as well. To be honest, I was a bit amused when I read about his ambitions to win a stage and finish high up in GC in the live ticker earlier today... but I was proved right quickly after

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2018
    « Reply #19 on: March 06, 2018, 18:20 »
    here's the start list for tomorrow's time trial. Hard to say who is the favorite for this...

    ~pdf Ordre de depart de l'Etape 4
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  • t-72

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2018
    « Reply #20 on: March 06, 2018, 18:42 »
    (EDIT: Deleted first part of  post because Search was way quicker than me, I started looking at the climb for saturday in google earth and was lost  :lol )

    In the GC theres #astana Lulu at the front -- and then a few sprinters that won't feature in the end and then a group of 30 riders at 43 seconds down.
    Top names in that challenger list need to not loose a lot on the ITT and crack Lulu on the big climb at stage 6 on saturday
    #bahrain #bahrain Izagirre x 2 :)
    #quickstep Alaphilippe
    #lotto Wellens
    #mitchelton #mitchelton #mitchelton Kreuziger, Chaves, Yates
    #bora Grossschartner
    #ag2r Gallopin
    #movistar Soler
    #sky #sky Poels, Henao
    #uae Martin
    #jumbo Gesink
    #trek Mollema
    #ef Craddock
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    Re: Paris - Nice 2018
    « Reply #21 on: March 06, 2018, 23:06 »
    I re-checked the composition of the front group coming over the climb btw (some of them a couple of seconds in front, or behind):

    #astana LLS, Fuglsang & Cort
    #bahrain Gorka & Ion
    #direct Calmejane & Hivert
    #mitchelton Chaves & Kreuziger
    #ag2r Gallopin & Vuillermoz
    #movistar Soler & Carapaz
    #bora Konrad & Großschartner
    #quickstep Alaphilippe
    #sky Henao
    #trek Mollema
    #lotto Wellens
    #delko di Gregorio
    #uae Martin
    #bmc Teuns
    #cofidis Herrada
    #fdj Molard

    so (obviously) no #sky Poels & de la Cruz in there, but also no sign of #katusha Zakarin, #mitchelton Yates, #fortuneo Barguil, #sunweb Oomen or #jumbo Gesink
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    Re: Paris - Nice 2018
    « Reply #22 on: March 07, 2018, 19:20 »
    Yates certainly bounced back today...

    ITT result including split times

    INT INT -> FIN FIN
    1       #sky POELS Wout      12:58 (1)      <- 12:35.08 (4.) ->      25:33.08
    2       #movistar *SOLER Marc      13:12 (3)      <- 12:32.60 (2.) ->      25:44.60
    3       #quickstep ALAPHILIPPE Julian      13:23 (9)      <- 12:26.53 (1.) ->      25:49.53
    4       #bora *GROSSSCHARTNER Felix      13:10 (2)      <- 12:43.70 (10.) ->      25:53.70
    5       #bahrain IZAGIRRE Jon      13:26 (12)      <- 12:34.06 (3.) ->      26:00.06
    6       #bahrain IZAGIRRE Gorka      13:22 (7)      <- 12:38.32 (7.) ->      26:00.32
    7       #astana SANCHEZ Luis León      13:13 (4)      <- 12:48.80 (15.) ->      26:01.80
    8       #lotto WELLENS Tim      13:25 (11)      <- 12:37.57 (5.) ->      26:02.57
    9       #sky HENAO Sergio       13:24 (10)      <- 12:42.16 (9.) ->      26:06.16
    10       #mitchelton CHAVES Esteban      13:22 (6)      <- 12:44.43 (12.) ->      26:06.43
    11       #mitchelton YATES Simon      13:29 (14)      <- 12:37.79 (6.) ->      26:06.79
    12       #sky DE LA CRUZ David      13:17 (5)      <- 12:50.99 (18.) ->      26:07.99
    13       #bora KONRAD Patrick      13:31 (15)      <- 12:41.49 (8.) ->      26:12.49
    14       #direct CALMEJANE Lilian      13:22 (8)      <- 12:53.85 (23.) ->      26:15.85
    15       #bmc TEUNS Dylan      13:27 (13)      <- 12:51.37 (19.) ->      26:18.37
    16       #sky VAN BAARLE Dylan      13:35 (18)      <- 12:46.26 (13.) ->      26:21.26
    17       #astana FUGLSANG Jakob      13:32 (16)      <- 12:57.08 (28.) ->      26:29.08
    18       #bmc DE MARCHI Alessandro      13:42 (23)      <- 12:47.87 (14.) ->      26:29.87
    19       #sunweb *OOMEN Sam      13:36 (19)      <- 12:57.07 (27.) ->      26:33.07
    20       #trek PANTANO Jarlinson      13:45 (29)      <- 12:51.43 (20.) ->      26:36.43
    21       #ag2r GALLOPIN Tony      13:40 (22)      <- 12:57.19 (29.) ->      26:37.19
    22       #katusha *POLITT Nils      13:48 (31)      <- 12:49.71 (16.) ->      26:37.71
    23       #sunweb *HAMILTON Christopher      13:43 (26)      <- 12:58.97 (33.) ->      26:41.97
    24       #movistar ERVITI Imanol      13:39 (20)      <- 13:02.99 (36.) ->      26:41.99
    25       #cofidis HERRADA Jesus      13:47 (30)      <- 12:55.23 (25.) ->      26:42.23
    26       #quickstep LAMPAERT Yves      13:42 (24)      <- 13:00.51 (35.) ->      26:42.51
    27       #katusha ZAKARIN Ilnur      13:43 (27)      <- 12:59.74 (34.) ->      26:42.74
    28       #mitchelton *EDMONDSON Alexander      13:52 (35)      <- 12:50.96 (17.) ->      26:42.96
    29       #ag2r VUILLERMOZ Alexis      14:00 (40)      <- 12:44.12 (11.) ->      26:44.12
    30       #lotto DE GENDT Thomas      13:50 (33)      <- 12:54.23 (24.) ->      26:44.23

    Other surprising results on the positive side came from #movistar Soler, #bora Großschartner, #mitchelton Chaves and #bmc Teuns. #ag2r Gallopin sits on the other side of the table.

    Lulu kept his lead, but after this convincing showing by #sky Poels' strength, it'll probably not an easy task to defend yellow over the coming days. And with most of the others sitting behind usually not afraid to attack, this should be a fun couple of stages to come
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2018
    « Reply #23 on: March 07, 2018, 20:37 »
     Jon and Gorka separated by 0.26 of a second.
    The Michelton Scott twins separated by 0.36 of a second. :D
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  • AG

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2018
    « Reply #24 on: March 08, 2018, 10:10 »
    havent watched any so far - is it worth staying up for tonight?
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    Re: Paris - Nice 2018
    « Reply #25 on: March 08, 2018, 10:46 »
    looks like a breakaway stage, or maybe a reduced sprint. So probably not
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2018
    « Reply #26 on: March 08, 2018, 20:20 »
    From the breakaway, Jérôme Cousin #direct won after chancing an extreme and protracted game of chicken against the less experienced Nils Politt #katusha. The pair had managed to detach fellow breakaway companions, Nicholas Edet  #cofidis and Julian el Fares  #delko on the final climb.
    Against a more experienced rider, this gamble would undoubtedly ended with a win for André Greipel  #lotto, as the bunch sprint followed home, a matter of seconds later.

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  • « Last Edit: March 09, 2018, 17:52 by LukasCPH »

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2018
    « Reply #27 on: March 08, 2018, 21:20 »
    yeah, Cousin admitted in the post race interview that it wasn't exactly the best way to win - but better than finishing 2nd again. And I guess he has a point...
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  • t-72

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    Re: Paris - Nice 2018
    « Reply #28 on: March 08, 2018, 21:59 »
    I saw it as a classic case of "age and treachery...."  :angry however it is undoubtedly good for #katusha Politt that he now gets to play these games at a high level. Last two years he has been dragging Kristoff around more or less wherever he wanted to go and that has improved Politt's endurance but not his tactical skills and explosivity. He's still young and developing and I think  :shh he might eventually win something more valuable than a Paris-Nice stage, although that would certainly be a good start.  :cool
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    Re: Paris - Nice 2018
    « Reply #29 on: March 09, 2018, 10:26 »
    not only in Tirreno there's a wall to be climbed, also ASO found a surprisingly steep climb in southern France:



    with only 8.5k to go from the top, this should spice things up nicely. Things could come back together a bit afterwards though, and it doesn't look too unlikely that the winner will come from a surprise attack on the false flat.

    #fdj Rudy Molard comes from Antibes, only 20k away, and did a recon of the finish multiple times. He looked good in recent days, and may be a rider to watch out for today as well
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