Leadbelly

  • Monument Winner
  • Country: gb
  • Posts: 7317
  • Liked: 6695
  • Awards: National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014

rote_laterne

  • Neo Pro
  • Country: at
  • Posts: 265
  • Liked: 144
Re: World Championships 2018
« Reply #1 on: March 10, 2018, 20:36 »
I think I like that.
  • ReplyReply

  • AG

    • Monument Winner
    • *
    • Country: au
    • Posts: 6510
    • Liked: 3915
    • Awards: Winner, 2013 National Championships prediction gameFan of the Year 2013
    Re: World Championships 2018
    « Reply #2 on: March 11, 2018, 00:52 »
    reduced teams are a good idea

    interesting ...
  • ReplyReply

  • AG

    • Monument Winner
    • *
    • Country: au
    • Posts: 6510
    • Liked: 3915
    • Awards: Winner, 2013 National Championships prediction gameFan of the Year 2013
    Re: World Championships 2018
    « Reply #3 on: July 29, 2018, 12:20 »
    so - worlds are looking super interesting this year.

    Super hard climbing course ... even the ITT is for the climbers

    who is going to have the best team?
  • ReplyReply

  • AG

    • Monument Winner
    • *
    • Country: au
    • Posts: 6510
    • Liked: 3915
    • Awards: Winner, 2013 National Championships prediction gameFan of the Year 2013
    Re: World Championships 2018
    « Reply #4 on: July 29, 2018, 12:54 »
    Columbia will be up there - dunno how many spots they will have, but they have a crazy strong team

    Quintana
    Chavez
    Bernal
    Henao
    Uran
    Lopez
    Pantano
    Betancur
    Atapuma


    Spain

    All in for Valverde surely?  The course is made for him

    Valverde
    Landa'
    Soler
    Ion Izaguirre
    Gorka Izaguirre
    Lulu Sanchez
    ... then 2 of any number of support climbers



    France also very strong

    Alaphilippe
    Bardet
    Pinot
    Barguil
    Calmejane
    Gallopin
    Latour

    then maybe Guillaume Martin, Rolland, Vuillermoz, Sicard, Edet, Moinard, Cherel ... they have a pretty good selection


    Italy  - also all in behind 1 leader
    Nibali
    and then whoever Nibs wants  :D 

    (Aru, Visconti, Moscon, Pozzovivo, Caruso, DeMarchi, Formolo ....)


    for this kind of course I also think the Dutch have a decent chance
    Dumoulin
    Kelderman
    Kruijswijk
    Poels
    Mollema
    Gesink


    Belguim not nearly as strong as the usual Belgian teams.  They dont seem to have a major climber ... but they do have lots of puncheur types who will be itching to get away.  GVA won the Olympic RR which was pretty hard after all.

    Australia looking pretty lame :o
  • ReplyReply

  • Caruut

    • 2nd Year Pro
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 375
    • Liked: 502
      • Sporcle quizzes on cycling.
    • Awards: Post of 2014
    Re: World Championships 2018
    « Reply #5 on: July 29, 2018, 13:13 »
    According to http://www.uci.ch/mm/Document/News/News/18/54/12/CMR-Syst%C3%A8medequalification2018-ENG_English.PDF,

    Quote
    Qualification through the UCI World Ranking by nations on 12 August 2018 (200 riders to start)
    A. Nations ranked 1 to 10 may enter 8 riders to start (80 riders to start)
    B. Nations ranked 11 to 20 may enter 6 riders to start (60 riders to start)
    C. Nations ranked 21 to 30 may enter 4 riders to start (40 riders to start)
    D. Nations ranked 31 to 50 may enter 1 rider to start (20 riders to start)

    And on http://www.uci.ch/road/ranking/, Colombia sit in a fairly comfortable 7th with 8100 points; 11th placed Slovenia are on 5200, so would need pretty much the entire top 10 in both San Seb and Poland to overhaul them by the August 12th deadline.
  • ReplyReply

  • Caruut

    • 2nd Year Pro
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 375
    • Liked: 502
      • Sporcle quizzes on cycling.
    • Awards: Post of 2014
    Re: World Championships 2018
    « Reply #6 on: July 29, 2018, 13:24 »
    For Belgium, you'd have to think this is a climb too far for Greg, but we all thought that before Rio too. They have so many puncheurs who can sort of climb but aren't going to fancy winning from the group of favourites - De Gendt, Wellems, Benoot, Hermans, Pauwels. Very interesting to see what they come with.

    I think the Yateses are an interesting shout for GB and, if he fancies it, Thomas's displays of power sprinting for mountain stages show that he could be a contender. It'll be the first time in a long time that we have a decent shout at a lumpy Worlds. Poland, with Majka and Kwiat, are a bit of a dark horse team. Denmark are a bit similar to Belgium, lots of nearlys but no standout.

    That Colombia team are kinda terrifying, Spain likewise. France with Bardet and Pinot have two strong racers with unfinished business this year. Netherlands also gonna bring a lethal team to this one - Tom to pull off the triple crown of runners up spots?

    Top pick for me has to be Vincenzo - he knows this is his last best chance, and after his Tour crash he'll be putting everything on the line for this. Went so strong at Rio too before that crash.
  • ReplyReply

  • Slow Rider

    • Classics Winner
    • Country: nl
    • Posts: 2603
    • Liked: 2494
    Re: World Championships 2018
    « Reply #7 on: July 29, 2018, 13:35 »
    A number of really strong teams. In addition to those AG mentioned, don't forget the Brits: Yates x2, Thomas, Froome. The Yates brothers and Thomas all have a more than decent kick at the end of a hard ride. The Polish double-act of Kwiatkowski and Majka will also be dangerous. But in sheer numbers of top climbers, hard to beat the Colombians - although they lack a single, clear leader.

    Personally, I am quite excited for the Dutch here. I hope Dumoulin can get back into shape after the Giro-Tour double madness, he'd be the favourite for the TT and has an outside shot at winning the road race. The Dutch team does lack a killing edge - as Dutch riders generally do. None of the climbers have anything resembling a sprint finish. Maybe Poels, probably our best bet as leader, but otherwise we'll have to rely on long-distance attacks.

    Nibali should be the favourite if he's in top shape. He has shown he knows how to peak late in the season, his Lombardia wins are evidence of that. Plenty of strong supporting riders for Italy too.

    But despite my support for the Dutch and Nibali... just how cool would Dan Martin in rainbows be?
  • ReplyReply

  • LukasCPH

    • World Champion
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 11079
    • Liked: 6941
      • lukascph.media
    • Awards: Staff of the year 2016Staff of the year 2015Velorooms Tour de France BINGO champion 2014National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014Velorooms Monday Quiz ChampionPoster of the Year 2013
    Re: World Championships 2018
    « Reply #8 on: July 29, 2018, 16:23 »
    And on http://www.uci.ch/road/ranking/, Colombia sit in a fairly comfortable 7th with 8100 points; 11th placed Slovenia are on 5200, so would need pretty much the entire top 10 in both San Seb and Poland to overhaul them by the August 12th deadline.
    Yes, I think that the only countries that have to worry about their positions (and subsequent Worlds spots) in the next two weeks are:
    *no Norway - currently 10th, ~530 points ahead of Slovenia; should be safe though
    *lu Luxembourg - currently 20th, ~34 points ahead of *usa & ~85 points ahead of *pt; *pt will score a lot in the Volta and almost certainly pass *lu
    *lv Latvia - currently 30th, ~9 points ahead of *ec & ~18 ahead of *er
    *tr Turkey - currently 40th, ~33 points ahead of *hk & ~39 points ahead of *cr; should be safe though

    *at Austria is currently 19th, ~220 points ahead of *usa & ~270 ahead of *pt - but as host nation, they're guaranteed six places anyway.
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: July 29, 2018, 16:46 by LukasCPH »
    Cyclingnews Women's WorldTour Correspondent
    2017 0711|CYCLING PR Manager; 2016 Stölting Content Editor
    Views presented are my own. RIP Keith & Sean

    t-72

    • Road Captain
    • Country: no
    • Posts: 1520
    • Liked: 2658
    Re: World Championships 2018
    « Reply #9 on: August 26, 2018, 22:02 »
    Yes, I think that the only countries that have to worry about their positions (and subsequent Worlds spots) in the next two weeks are:
    ....
    *no Norway - currently 10th, ~530 points ahead of Slovenia; should be safe though
    .....

    Oh yeah, there aren't any good slovenians in cycling this year  :o

    The other perspective: *no Norway don't care - there isn't a man that can ride Norway into top 10-position in this race. That's the downside of making courses "only for climbers". There are no mountains here, so where should our cyclists learn any of that....  :lol

    I guess that counting doesn't work for the women because Kathrine Aalerud seems like our best chance. ( And possibly Tobias Foss in the U-23)

    So I just wrote in this thread to post this little message from Bergen last year:

    I hope it will be as fun as we had it, and that it doesn't become an economical disaster for town and cycling community. The hangover has been so bad it aches to write about it, but it was quite a party, too.
  • ReplyReply

  • LukasCPH

    • World Champion
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 11079
    • Liked: 6941
      • lukascph.media
    • Awards: Staff of the year 2016Staff of the year 2015Velorooms Tour de France BINGO champion 2014National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014Velorooms Monday Quiz ChampionPoster of the Year 2013
    Re: World Championships 2018
    « Reply #10 on: August 27, 2018, 14:27 »
    Oh yeah, there aren't any good slovenians in cycling this year  :o
    I forgot about Roglic. Seriously. :angel

    That's how little I cared about the Tour this year.
    Mohoric's biggest results were after the 12 August deadline, so they don't count (for this year's Worlds).
  • ReplyReply

  • t-72

    • Road Captain
    • Country: no
    • Posts: 1520
    • Liked: 2658
    Re: World Championships 2018
    « Reply #11 on: September 03, 2018, 22:16 »
    I forgot about Roglic. Seriously. :angel

    That's how little I cared about the Tour this year.
    Mohoric's biggest results were after the 12 August deadline, so they don't count (for this year's Worlds).

    I might put money on Mohorics greatest results this year coming towards the end of september. He is so insanely fast downhill he can actually win the rainbows. He might benefit from the teams of other not-so-fast-climbers-but-great-classics riders like Belgium (van Avermaet) and Slovakia (Sagan), Poland (Kwiatkowski) but may struggle to contain the really fast climbers like *fra Alaphilippe *es Valverde or find himself outsmarted by the shark - but he can also just simply win it. 
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Monument Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7317
    • Liked: 6695
    • Awards: National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: World Championships 2018
    « Reply #12 on: September 04, 2018, 08:17 »
    *nl

    https://www.knwu.nl/nieuws/wk-selectie-wegwielrennen-bekend

    Men

    Tom Dumoulin
    Bauke Mollema
    Wout Poels
    Wilco Kelderman
    Sam Oomen
    Steven Kruijswijk
    Antwan Tolhoek
    Pieter Weening

    Dumoulin, Kelderman and Van Baarle for the TT.

    Women

    Ellen van Dijk
    Annemiek van Vleuten
    Anna van der Breggen
    Lucinda Brand
    Amy Pieters
    Chantal Blaak
    Sabrina Stultiens
    Janneke Ensing

    Brand, Van Der Breggen, Van Dijk and Van Vleuten for the TT.
  • ReplyReply

  • LukasCPH

    • World Champion
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 11079
    • Liked: 6941
      • lukascph.media
    • Awards: Staff of the year 2016Staff of the year 2015Velorooms Tour de France BINGO champion 2014National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014Velorooms Monday Quiz ChampionPoster of the Year 2013
    Re: World Championships 2018
    « Reply #13 on: September 04, 2018, 09:32 »
    *nl
    I definitely see the possibility of a Dutch double #rainbow in the elite ITTs.

    And I see five possible RR winners out of the eight women selected: Van Vleuten, Van der Breggen, Brand, Blaak, and Stultiens.[1]

    However, I don't really see a likely winner for the men's squad.
    The best bet, in my opinion, would be Poels, not Dumoulin. Like Froome, Dumoulin is a stage racer. He may have the power required to win this Worlds - but a one-day race needs tactical nous, and of a different sort than stage racing.
     1. I guess we will now see Ellen van Dijk win ...
  • ReplyReply

  • t-72

    • Road Captain
    • Country: no
    • Posts: 1520
    • Liked: 2658
    Re: World Championships 2018
    « Reply #14 on: September 04, 2018, 20:37 »
    ....
    However, I don't really see a likely winner for the men's squad.
    The best bet, in my opinion, would be Poels, not Dumoulin. Like Froome, Dumoulin is a stage racer. He may have the power required to win this Worlds - but a one-day race needs tactical nous, and of a different sort than stage racing.

    Either of those will have to crest the last climb (the ultrasteep Hölle) alone with a significant time gap because there are so many that descend faster than them, even among the good climbers: we know how Froome alone fared against Dumoulin and some friends.

    Poels would be the captain, we haven't seen him climbing crazy fast on steep classics climbs, but remember his inside turns on the Angliru last year? Add to this the fact that he has won the L-B-L, so he is a proven monuments man. Looking at Team Sky in the Tour of Britain yesterday, it actually seems like his British teammates will not challenge him for the win?  ;)

  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Monument Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7317
    • Liked: 6695
    • Awards: National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: World Championships 2018
    « Reply #15 on: September 06, 2018, 19:29 »
    *co

    http://www.federacioncolombianadeciclismo.com/ruta/nomina-seleccion-colombia-manzana-postobon-campeonato-mundial-de-ruta-austria-2018/

    Nairo Quintana (Movistar)
    Rigoberto Uran (EF/Drapac)
    Miguel Ángel López (Astana)
    Sergio e Sebastian Henao (Team Sky)
    Daniel Martinez (EF/Drapac)
    Rodrigo Contreras (EPM)
    Winner Anacona (Movistar)

    Sosa is riding the U23 event.
  • ReplyReply

  • LukasCPH

    • World Champion
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 11079
    • Liked: 6941
      • lukascph.media
    • Awards: Staff of the year 2016Staff of the year 2015Velorooms Tour de France BINGO champion 2014National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014Velorooms Monday Quiz ChampionPoster of the Year 2013
    Re: World Championships 2018
    « Reply #16 on: September 06, 2018, 19:42 »
    *co
    Sosa is riding winning the U23 event.
    Fixed that for you. ;)
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Monument Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7317
    • Liked: 6695
    • Awards: National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: World Championships 2018
    « Reply #17 on: September 10, 2018, 08:20 »
    *be

    https://www.nieuwsblad.be/cnt/dmf20180909_03725988

    Greg Van Avermaet (BMC)
    Tim Wellens (Lotto-Soudal)
    Tiesj Benoot (Lotto-Soudal)
    Dylan Teuns (BMC)
    Laurens De Plus (Quick Step Floors)
    Serge Pauwels (Dimension Data)
    Xandro Meurisse (Wanty-Groupe Gobert)
    Ben Hermans (Israel Cycling Academy)
  • ReplyReply

  • AG

    • Monument Winner
    • *
    • Country: au
    • Posts: 6510
    • Liked: 3915
    • Awards: Winner, 2013 National Championships prediction gameFan of the Year 2013
    Re: World Championships 2018
    « Reply #18 on: September 10, 2018, 09:51 »
    *co

    http://www.federacioncolombianadeciclismo.com/ruta/nomina-seleccion-colombia-manzana-postobon-campeonato-mundial-de-ruta-austria-2018/

    Nairo Quintana (Movistar)
    Rigoberto Uran (EF/Drapac)
    Miguel Ángel López (Astana)
    Sergio e Sebastian Henao (Team Sky)
    Daniel Martinez (EF/Drapac)
    Rodrigo Contreras (EPM)
    Winner Anacona (Movistar)

    Sosa is riding the U23 event.

    that is a crazy strong team ...    Interesting to see if they ride as a team though
  • ReplyReply

  • M Gee

    • Road Captain
    • Country: us
    • Posts: 1696
    • Liked: 1451
    • The user formerly known as hiero
    Re: World Championships 2018
    « Reply #19 on: September 10, 2018, 12:56 »
    that is a crazy strong team ...    Interesting to see if they ride as a team though

    Uh, yah. Wonder who'll they'll vote in as leader. It's almost too easy to predict they'll spend more time watching each other than winning. I dare them to prove me wrong. Double dare.
  • ReplyReply
  • . . .He had the bit between his teeth, and he loiked the taste, mate . . .

    search

    • World Champion
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 10837
    • Liked: 11321
    • Awards: 2018 Autumn Classics Prediction ChampMember of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Member of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: World Championships 2018
    « Reply #20 on: September 10, 2018, 13:45 »
    a couple of days ago van Avermaet said he has a 2,5% chance to win - compared to 5% in Rio, which was still enough to take gold ;)

    https://www.wielerkrant.be/nl/nieuws/lees/2018-09-07/van-avermaet-stoomt-zich-klaar-voor-wk-in-rio-had-ik-5-kans-in-innsbruck-25
  • ReplyReply
  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    t-72

    • Road Captain
    • Country: no
    • Posts: 1520
    • Liked: 2658
    Re: World Championships 2018
    « Reply #21 on: September 10, 2018, 20:50 »
    *co

    http://www.federacioncolombianadeciclismo.com/ruta/nomina-seleccion-colombia-manzana-postobon-campeonato-mundial-de-ruta-austria-2018/

    Nairo Quintana (Movistar)
    Rigoberto Uran (EF/Drapac)
    Miguel Ángel López (Astana)
    Sergio e Sebastian Henao (Team Sky)
    Daniel Martinez (EF/Drapac)
    Rodrigo Contreras (EPM)
    Winner Anacona (Movistar)

    Sosa is riding the U23 event.

    Sergio Henao for capitan? He's riding the Vuelta and doesn't impress much but that may be just the intended plan, I guess. He was quite good in Rio de Janeiro RR until Nibali brought him down on the Vista Chinesa descent last time. (Not Henao's fault!)

    If healthy, Jairlinson Pantano is better than a lot of those listed here on such a course and would have been a second choice for captain. Uran ... doesn't look his best even though he certainly tries. What I am getting at is ... it is only Henao that is fast enough on a crazy steep climb to win if the field comes reasonably compact in to the last climb, and the new three musketeers can only win it by going early (on the other climb) and getting a gap.
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Monument Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7317
    • Liked: 6695
    • Awards: National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: World Championships 2018
    « Reply #22 on: September 11, 2018, 08:37 »
    I certainly wouldn't bother having Quintana there. That's the equivalent of picking Froome/Porte. Great climber in stage races = climber in one dayers. Sosa would be an obvious selection instead, but you can understand them targeting the lower fruit with him.

    As for a captain, I would lean towards Uran, but both him and Sergio would be protected and I'd leave it till the day and probably the last lap to see who was feeling better etc.
  • ReplyReply

  • M Gee

    • Road Captain
    • Country: us
    • Posts: 1696
    • Liked: 1451
    • The user formerly known as hiero
    Re: World Championships 2018
    « Reply #23 on: September 11, 2018, 14:34 »
    . . .
    Australia looking pretty lame :o
    Owww. Things must be pretty serious then! 

    :pray   
    Sometimes that works!

    . . . and I'd leave it till the day and probably the last lap to see who was feeling better etc.
    Oh, yah, I'm sure that's exactly the sort of planning they'll do. No doubt in my mind.

    To be fair. Henao and Uran seem to be able to think ahead a bit more than the rest. If there is any sort of consensus that either of those two should be the protected ones, they might stand a chance. And I can see going for two protected riders.
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Monument Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7317
    • Liked: 6695
    • Awards: National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: World Championships 2018
    « Reply #24 on: September 11, 2018, 15:11 »
    *cz

    http://www.ceskysvazcyklistiky.cz/clanek/6337_nominace-na-silnicni-ms-innsbruck-2018

    RR - Josef Černý, Jan Hirt, Karel Hník, Roman Kreuziger, Michael Kukrle, Zdeněk Štybar

    TT - Jan Bárta, Josef Černý
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Monument Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7317
    • Liked: 6695
    • Awards: National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: World Championships 2018
    « Reply #25 on: September 11, 2018, 15:17 »
    *usa

    https://www.usacycling.org/article/usa-cycling-names-2018-uci-road-world-championships-elite-teams

    Ben King (Richmond Va.; Team Dimension Data)
    Sepp Kuss (Durango, Colo.; Team LottoNL – Jumbo)
    Brent Bookwalter (Asheville, N.C.; BMC Racing Team)
    Peter Stetina (Boulder, Colo.; Trek-Segafredo)

    Rosskopf and TJ will ride the TT.
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Monument Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 7317
    • Liked: 6695
    • Awards: National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: World Championships 2018
    « Reply #26 on: September 11, 2018, 17:02 »


    *lu

    https://twitter.com/DucalSports/status/1037986881680670720

    A point of order that maybe Fus can answer, Tom Wirtgen is down to ride the U23 TT along with the Elite RR, surely he can't mix and match his categories like this?
  • ReplyReply

  • rote_laterne

    • Neo Pro
    • Country: at
    • Posts: 265
    • Liked: 144
    Re: World Championships 2018
    « Reply #27 on: September 11, 2018, 19:41 »
    I didn't know Didier Laurent rides for Luxembourg.  :S

    Colombia should ride for Uran.
  • ReplyReply

  • M Gee

    • Road Captain
    • Country: us
    • Posts: 1696
    • Liked: 1451
    • The user formerly known as hiero
    Re: World Championships 2018
    « Reply #28 on: September 11, 2018, 20:55 »
    Leadbelly: That Road to Innsbruck with Flecha is great. Thx!
  • ReplyReply

  • t-72

    • Road Captain
    • Country: no
    • Posts: 1520
    • Liked: 2658
    Re: World Championships 2018
    « Reply #29 on: September 11, 2018, 21:50 »
    Leadbelly...I agree with MGee, Flecha is a great presenter! Do you also have a presentation of the main lap ?
  • ReplyReply

  •  



    Top
    Back to top