Poll

Who will win PR ?

Greg van Avermaet
1 (3.6%)
Peter Sagan
2 (7.1%)
Phillipe Gilbert
5 (17.9%)
Nikki Terpstra
1 (3.6%)
Zdenek Stybar
11 (39.3%)
Sep van Marcke
0 (0%)
Jasper Stuyven
0 (0%)
John Degenkolb
1 (3.6%)
Alexander Kristoff
1 (3.6%)
Luke Rowe
0 (0%)
Wout van Aert
1 (3.6%)
Oliver Naeson
1 (3.6%)
Arnead Demare
1 (3.6%)
Other
3 (10.7%)

Total Members Voted: 28

Voting closed: April 08, 2018, 11:54


AG

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2018 Paris Roubaix
« on: April 05, 2018, 07:38 »
Yes - its finally here.  That 'One Sunday in Hell" that each year we wait anxiously for, and pray for rain.

2018 Paris Roubaix


There is simply no other race like it.  257km long, with 29 cobbled sections totalling 54.5km ... and the cobbles are very different to those of Flanders that the riders have spent the last 6 weeks riding on.  These are the cobbles of France ... they are big, mossy, slippery, rough and hard. 

Each cobbled section is rated ... lowest of 1 star to the super difficult 5 star sections such as the Forest of Arenberg - which is where things traditionally kick off.  Mind, the race for position heading into the famous trench is almost as hectic as the finish line of any other race.

The finish - who doesnt dream of a solo celebration lap around the velodrome of Roubaix, with the coolest trophy in cycling waiting for you.



Route

This year we have 257km, with 29 sections of cobbles. 









The Contenders


Like the rest of the spring, the might of the Quickstep team will prove to be a huge factor in determining this race.  Can anyone overcome their pure weight of numbers?

Will Sagan, Van Avermaet and the other contenders be able to work together?

Van Avermaet comes into the race as the defending champion, and in good form - but not the super confidence-inspiring winning form of last spring.  Still, he is in good shape, and if things go right for him he could find himself with back to back wins here. 

Sagan too is that tiny bit off his best shape - but perhaps that might work to his advantage if other riders figure that finally they might have a chance and might work with him.  He comes here with a better team than he has ever had - but made mistakes in how to deploy them at Flanders so needs to do better here.

For Gilbert this is the race he wants this season.  His #striveforfive campaign is in full force and he WANTS this.  But for Quickstep that could prove to be an issue if the cards fall differently and it is one of the other team members up front.  Can he put aside his ambitions and execute team orders?  Is he even strong enough ... this is a race he has not ridden in 10 years (mind, he had not ridden Flanders in the 5 years prior to winning it last year .. so I am saying yes :D )

Terpstra, Stybar and even Lampaert all have a good chance too given the strength of the team.  They can simply put guy after guy off the front until one of them sticks - and then rely on the others not to work together

And then there are lesser favourites that are strong, train hard and desperately want this ... who only need that bit of luck going their way to make their mark.

So - who's dream will come true ... and who's dreams will lay broken on the cobbles of France?


Star Rating

:* :* :* :* :*   Van Avermaet, Sagan, Gilbert

:* :* :* :*   Terpstra, VanMarcke, Naeson

:* :* :* Stybar, Van Aert, Stuyven, Demare

:* :* Degenkolb, Haussler, Trentin

:* Stannard, Rowe, Durbridge


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    Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
    « Reply #1 on: April 05, 2018, 11:19 »
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  • Of course, if this turns out someday to be the industry standard integrated handlebar-computer-braking solution then I'll eat my kevlar-reinforced aerodynamic hat.

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    Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
    « Reply #2 on: April 05, 2018, 12:05 »
    Dry, overcast and 19 Celsius on Sunday. No epic rainy edition this year.
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    Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
    « Reply #3 on: April 05, 2018, 13:52 »
    The wife said might take the kids with some friends they can cook some sausages play outside. You want to come.

    Me might do some stuff at home.

    Wife ok cool see closer to Sunday.

    Wife what flipping bike race is on

    Me Roubaix

    Wife ahh no chance you coming then

    Me nice :lol
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
    « Reply #4 on: April 05, 2018, 14:37 »
    ...big, mossy, slippery, rough and hard.
    The worst Tinder profile ever.
    [Sorry, just couldn't resist]  :-x


    Dry, overcast and 19 Celsius on Sunday. No epic rainy edition this year.
    You trying to get yourself banned from Velorooms, or something? :angry

    :D

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    Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
    « Reply #5 on: April 05, 2018, 14:50 »
    As difficult as it has become over the years, I'm really going to try to find a decent live feed on Sunday.

    Not that it matters in the grand scheme, but it appears that there is only one, solitary American rider even entering the race this year—Taylor Phinney? After winning the junior race twice, he was never a threat in Roubaix as a pro. I haven't been following along, so is he even healthy? Has he accomplished anything of note this season that would put him on anyone's radar? Truth be told, I hadn't even realized he was still even riding professionally.


    No wonder American TV is giving zero priority to Roubaix this year.  :secretlol
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    Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
    « Reply #6 on: April 05, 2018, 15:04 »
    he is riding.

    He rode Flanders last weekend, but didnt do anything of note.

    to be totally honest - he has never been even close to the same rider since his accident.  I am glad he is riding this race as he does love it, but I dont know if he will ever get back to that level
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
    « Reply #7 on: April 05, 2018, 17:19 »
    The wife said might take the kids with some friends they can cook some sausages play outside. You want to come.

    Me might do some stuff at home.

    Wife ok cool see closer to Sunday.

    Wife what flipping bike race is on

    Me Roubaix

    Wife ahh no chance you coming then

    Me nice :lol
    *se Jättebra! :cool :D

    to be totally honest - he has never been even close to the same rider since his accident.  I am glad he is riding this race as he does love it, but I dont know if he will ever get back to that level
    I don't think he will.
    I also think he's not beating himself up about that, but has accepted this 'fate', enjoying to be a classics super-domestique instead. And painting some paintings in his spare time.
    :)
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    Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
    « Reply #9 on: April 06, 2018, 23:09 »
    I tried to improve the map of the cobbled sectors , just because  :)

    The secteurs are color coded according to difficulty (star rating) + added a few key names for reference.



    Pay attention to the Saint-Python and Querenaing areas, before the Arenberg. These are two areas of many intermediate difficulty cobbled sections with little space in between them. To the riders they will feel more like two long cobbled sections with short rest points. If you rate the cobbles on difficulty*length instead if difficulty alone, these areas score higher than the Arenberg(!)

    If you see #mitchelton Matt Hayman sneaking away on one of these sections :-x ...it's his last lap! He's the most experienced rider here now, and he won one of the most exciting vintages of the last few years, on the velodrome! Be warned!
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    Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
    « Reply #10 on: April 07, 2018, 09:07 »
    first Star ratings in the papers today:

    *be Het Nieuwsblad
    :*:*:*:*:* Terpstra
    :*:*:*:* Stybar, Sagan
    :*:*:* Gilbert, Démare, van Avermaet
    :*:* Vanmarcke, Stuyven, van Aert, Naesen
    :* Lampaert, Degenkolb, Pedersen, Moscon, Trentin

    t-72 will not approve :D
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    Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
    « Reply #11 on: April 07, 2018, 13:06 »
    first Star ratings in the papers today:

    *be Het Nieuwsblad
    :*:*:*:*:* Terpstra
    :*:*:*:* Stybar, Sagan
    :*:*:* Gilbert, Démare, van Avermaet
    :*:* Vanmarcke, Stuyven, van Aert, Naesen
    :* Lampaert, Degenkolb, Pedersen, Moscon, Trentin

    t-72 will not approve :D

    I couldn't let that one go  :angry

    Or, actually - I don't think it is that bad  :) I agree that Terpstra is top favorite, he knows how to win here, he is in very good shape and he rides for the best team. Sagan, Van Avermaet, and Gilbert should also always be included as candidates. However, further down the list I am less certain.
    Statistically, the Paris-Roubaix is the most difficult to win of all the monuments. There are very few if any in the past 10s of years that have won the Paris-Roubaix without previous experience from the race and at least one top 10 finish. Filtering Het Nieuwsblaads list by that criteria will be hard on the young ones on the list.

    Let me present the P-R experience of the riders in a simple table:

    ShirtTeamNameAgeparticipatons Best resultTOP 5TOP 10
    #bmcBMCGreg van Avermaet328133
    #quickstepQuickstep FloorsNiki Terpstra3310133
    #trek Trek-SegafredoJohn Degenkolb296123
    #ef EF – Drapac p/b CannondaleSep Vanmarcke296233
    #quickstepQuickstep FloorsZdenek Stybar325234
    #trek Trek-SegafredoJasper Stuyven254411
    #skyTeam SkyGianni Moscon232511
    #boraBora-HansgrohePeter Sagan286611
    #fdjGroupama-FDJArnaud Demare264601
    #quickstepQuickstep FloorsYves Lampaert263701
    #ag2rAG2ROliver Naesen2733100
    #mitcheltonMitchelton-ScottMatteo Trentin2853600
    #quickstepQuickstep FloorsPhilippe Gilbert3515200
    #trek *dkTrek-SegafredoMads Pedersen2219500
    #verandasVerandas WilhelmsWout van Aert230

    4 riders on the list are top 10 candidates, not winner candidates:
    #verandas Wout van Aert: hasn't even done the race before, cyclocross worlds doesn't count here - OUT
    #trek *dk Mads Pedersen has  only one previous participation, finished in 95th position - OUT
    #mitchelton Mateo Trentin: 5 previous participations, best previous result 46th, - OUT
    #quickstep Philippe Gilbert: 1 previous participation long ago, and not very good - OUT

    In place of these I would put some other riders with previous top 10 finishes, for example:
    #ef Sebastian Langeveld
    #mitchelton Matt Hayman
    #sky Ian Stannard
    #didata Edvald Boasson Hagen  :D (you knew I had too  :angel )

    EDIT: surprised me a little bit too see how few top results Sagan has in this race. Moscon already has better results than him!


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    Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
    « Reply #12 on: April 07, 2018, 13:14 »
    actually I was more thinking about Kristoff than EBH after his (to me) surprisingly strong showing in the Ronde - but I didn't realize that somehow he has never been a real factor in Paris Roubaix

    Generally I agree that experience is important, and we'll probably see more or less the same guys in front as usual. I'm not so sure about Langeveld though. In top shape he is a contender (although on paper better suited to the Ronde, despite finishing 3rd here last year) but tbh from the position on the road he had last week he should have been able to fight for the win and not finish in 22nd
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    Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
    « Reply #13 on: April 07, 2018, 13:33 »
    Edvald Boasson Hagen remains more hellbent on one day winning the Paris-Roubaix than most people realize. There have been quite a few critical remarks about him gaining weight and sacrificing climbing performance, critics suggest he would get better results if he had focused on more hilly races. (Preferably with his 2011 body). When confronted with this type of statements in a tv portrait interview he just said no: "the most important race for me is the Paris-Roubaix. That's the one I would really like to win, because it is the most difficult one to win."

    It looks like he has recovered from his operation early this year and his form curve is still rising, so I am pretty sure he's motivated. If he has extended his endurance with some 800 m since 2016, he should be in the finale  :D

    Aleksander Kristoff has a top 10 but always says he doesn't like the Paris-Roubaix cobbles, preferring the explosive hills of de Ronde to the flat French variety. He has been struggling with the cold on a couple of occasions this year and I think #uae policy of keeping him in the race even if not in shape has backfired. He doesnt look as strong as he should be this time of year. OR he's tricking everyone, talking down his own chances to fly more under the radar. The only monument he hasn't won that he can win, is this one. However, I don't think it'll be this year.
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    Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
    « Reply #14 on: April 07, 2018, 13:49 »
    first Star ratings in the papers today:

    *be Het Nieuwsblad
    :*:*:*:*:* Terpstra
    :*:*:*:* Stybar, Sagan
    :*:*:* Gilbert, Démare, van Avermaet
    :*:* Vanmarcke, Stuyven, van Aert, Naesen
    :* Lampaert, Degenkolb, Pedersen, Moscon, Trentin

    t-72 will not approve :D

    Recon the winner comes from someone not on the list
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    Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
    « Reply #15 on: April 07, 2018, 15:10 »
    Despite my dooming review of his Paris-Roubaix statistics, Philippe Gilbert is hungry for more:

    https://twitter.com/PhilippeGilbert/status/982544672827551744
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    Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
    « Reply #16 on: April 07, 2018, 19:25 »
    more stars:

    *nl de Telegraaf
    :*:*:*:*:* Terpstra
    :*:*:*:* Sagan, van Avermaet, Gilbert
    :*:*:* Stybar, Pedersen, Vanmarcke, van Aert
    :*:* van Baarle, Langeveld, Démare, Stuyven, Naesen, Trentin
    :* Teunissen, Lampaert, Degenkolb, Kristoff, Roelandts, Moscon, EBH
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    Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
    « Reply #17 on: April 07, 2018, 19:40 »
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    Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
    « Reply #18 on: April 07, 2018, 20:33 »
    Most open race for a while in my opinion. Just can't call it.
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    Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
    « Reply #19 on: April 07, 2018, 22:01 »
    he is riding.

    He rode Flanders last weekend, but didnt do anything of note.

    to be totally honest - he has never been even close to the same rider since his accident.  I am glad he is riding this race as he does love it, but I dont know if he will ever get back to that level
    Exactly. Which is a shame, but I don't blame him. His reconstruction included more than just the bone - it included joint and soft tissue. Nasty.
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  • . . .He had the bit between his teeth, and he loiked the taste, mate . . .

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    Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
    « Reply #20 on: April 07, 2018, 22:44 »
    ed: beautiful Het Nieuwsblad cover

    Wouldn't say they might be a bit partial, eh?
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    Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
    « Reply #21 on: April 08, 2018, 06:47 »
    With everyone looking at Quickstep (and Sagan?) I really like the chance of an outsider to win today. And it will be especially interesting to see what happens if #quickstep Lampaert or Senechal manages to get into an "early" move - are BMC, Bora and EF willing to give Terpstra, Gilbert and Stybar and armchair ride into the finale?

    ...and talking about outsiders: there was an interview with #direct Damien Gaudin in Ouest France today and he said "with Chavanel, [Petit and me,] we have three protected riders for the win. Just like Quickstep.".

    Not sure if that's a fair comparison... but anyway. Let the green army #europcar #europcar #europcar role like it's 2013.

    Also Bert de Backer could be someone to watch out for. He was a super dom for Degenkolb in recent years and still finished close to the Top 10 several times - now he is the captain for #vital Vital Concept. And what about #sky Rowe?! Knaven said he will win! Oh my... can't wait :D
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    Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
    « Reply #22 on: April 08, 2018, 07:50 »
    I notice Thomas has said that this (type) of race is where his heart lies. He needs to get a grip and have a word with himself because a couple of years ago it was all about being a stage racer. I think he's a better one day racer than stage racer (also less chances to crash if you're only racing for one day). I'd like to see him commit to being a classics racer going forward.
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    Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
    « Reply #23 on: April 08, 2018, 08:14 »
    Barbie is going to win that it all
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    Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
    « Reply #24 on: April 08, 2018, 08:24 »
    Here's some statistics for you, this is why I say no-one wins this race first time they try. The racers listed include some of this years favorites and all winners from the last 15 years.  The results are listed per year from the year of their first participation. None of the winners won until the 4th year after their first participation. Both Boonen and Cancellara won their first victory in their 4th participation. If someone wins it first year, they will be nominated for instant league of legends status!
    I also heard, and recounted, that in order to win in this race, you need at least 1 top 10 finish earlier. For the winners from the last 15 years, that is almost true. Stuart O'Grady won in 2007, without a previous top 10.
    Now there's a lot of hype surrounding Wout van Aert especially, but I hope his management has done a good job of making him understand that a victory is highly unlikely, a top 5 is an exceptional debut (only Boonen managed this), and a top 10 is a very good start (Boonen/Bäckstedt/Stybar). If van Aeart really thinks he is going to win this, I hope he thinks "but maybe not this year".
     


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    Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
    « Reply #25 on: April 08, 2018, 08:26 »
    I notice Thomas has said that this (type) of race is where his heart lies. He needs to get a grip and have a word with himself because a couple of years ago it was all about being a stage racer. I think he's a better one day racer than stage racer (also less chances to crash if you're only racing for one day). I'd like to see him commit to being a classics racer going forward.

    oh, no worries, he already crashed during the recon on Thursday, so he is able to manage that :D
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    Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
    « Reply #26 on: April 08, 2018, 08:31 »
    I also heard, and recounted, that in order to win in this race, you need at least 1 top 10 finish earlier. For the winners from the last 15 years, that is almost true. Stuart O'Grady won in 2007, without a previous top 10.
    Now there's a lot of hype surrounding Wout van Aert especially, but I hope his management has done a good job of making him understand that a victory is highly unlikely, a top 5 is an exceptional debut (only Boonen managed this), and a top 10 is a very good start (Boonen/Bäckstedt/Stybar). If van Aeart really thinks he is going to win this, I hope he thinks "but maybe not this year".

    yeah, I also checked those stats earlier on:
    • last Rookie winner: Jean Forestier in 1955
    • last Rookie on the podium: Tom Boonen in 2002
    • Rookies in the Top 10 during the past 15 editions:
      • Zdenek Stybar 6th in 2013
      • Martijn Maaskant 4th in 2008
      • Bjorn Leukemans 4th in 2007
      • Staf Scheirlinckx 10th in 2006
      • Fabian Cancellara 4th in 2005
      • Arnaud Coyat 10th in 2005
    Stybar could have come pretty close to winning it as a rookie hadn't he crashed into that spectator late in the race though.
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    Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
    « Reply #27 on: April 08, 2018, 08:36 »
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    Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
    « Reply #28 on: April 08, 2018, 08:49 »
      Rookies in the Top 10 during the past 15 editions:
      • Zdenek Stybar 6th in 2013
      • Martijn Maaskant 4th in 2008
      • Bjorn Leukemans 4th in 2007
      • Staf Scheirlinckx 10th in 2006
      • Fabian Cancellara 4th in 2005
      • Arnaud Coyat 10th in 2005
      [/list]
      Stybar could have come pretty close to winning it as a rookie hadn't he crashed into that spectator late in the race though.
      According to ProCyclingStats, Cancellara participated in 2003 with DNF result, so he should not be on that list, if that is correct ?
      You're quite right when it comes to Stybar, his record is the only one of the present bunch that looks like it can come close to a Boonen/Cancellara statistic. With the hype surrounding van Aert, consider that Stybar matches him on CX experience and then has the Paris-Roubaix experience in addition.
      Then look at Philippe Gilbert's statistics in this race; he is more or less at the same level as Mads Pedersen.
      (Take away stars from van Aert, Gilbert, give to Stybar  :D ).

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      Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
      « Reply #29 on: April 08, 2018, 08:55 »
      According to ProCyclingStats, Cancellara participated in 2003 with DNF result, so he should not be on that list, if that is correct ?

      ah, yeah, I used cq as it's easier to search for results from a particular race only - and they don't seem to have the DNFs listed from 2003 unfortunately, so he didn't show up there
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