t-72

  • Road Captain
  • Country: no
  • Posts: 1514
  • Liked: 2649
Giro 2018 - Rest Day #2
« on: May 13, 2018, 21:45 »
From my morning coffee grumblings today:

Quote
....This will of course include #rosa #mitchelton Yates and  #mitchelton Chaves. I think their dream scenario is that both of them manage to break free from the #sky #sunweb train and they ride off into the sunset together.

So, i think this must have been very much a dream come true for the #mitchelton team then:


It is actually not just Yates and Chaves, the whole #mitchelton team is on fire at the moment, and they managed to convert their good physical form to results. Superior performance.

The other topic that will be discussed I think is #sky Froome who seemed to suffer a bonk like 2013 Alpe D'Huez? I think this comes close to the worst mountain stage I have ever seen him ride, if not injured. Somewhere there are probably more informed guessings with respect to what is "wrong".

#sunweb Tom Dumoulin lost a comfortable number of seconds, I think more or less according to plan. His team seems to be a little  better than I thought but they are not a match for Astana and Mitchelton.
   
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: May 14, 2018, 08:04 by search »

    search

    • World Champion
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 10797
    • Liked: 11270
    • Awards: Member of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Member of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Giro 2018 - Rest Day #2
    « Reply #1 on: May 13, 2018, 21:51 »
    #sunweb Tom Dumoulin lost a comfortable number of seconds, I think more or less according to plan. His team seems to be a little  better than I thought but they are not a match for Astana and Mitchelton.
     

    for the moment, more or less, yeah. But I think he needs to improve drastically to still be a factor in this Giro
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: May 14, 2018, 08:05 by search »
    "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    Capt_Cavman

    • Road Captain
    • Country: jp
    • Posts: 1917
    • Liked: 1283
    Re: Giro 2018 - Rest Day #2
    « Reply #2 on: May 13, 2018, 22:28 »
    for the moment, more or less, yeah. But I think he needs to improve drastically to still be a factor in this Giro
    Dunno, barring mishaps there's going to be little change in GC until next weekend* which doesn't give the opposition much opportunity to overturn Dumoulin's TT advantage which I'm guessing at 3:30 over Yates, maybe more over Pinot & Chaves.

    On the other hand it doesn't give much opportunity to ride into/out of form. You can read it either way.



    *Stage 11 could produce time gaps I suppose.
  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • World Champion
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 10797
    • Liked: 11270
    • Awards: Member of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Member of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Giro 2018 - Rest Day #2
    « Reply #3 on: May 13, 2018, 22:41 »
    at the moment he just doesn't look as strong to me as last year (or also in the Vuelta, when he nearly won). But you're right of course, yeah, there's still almost a week of time left to improve before the Zoncolan

    on paper I would still think Pinot is the better time trials than Yates btw - although he didn't show much of that in last year's Giro
  • ReplyReply

  • Carlo Algatrensig

    • National Champion
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 767
    • Liked: 879
    Re: Giro 2018 - Rest Day #2
    « Reply #4 on: May 13, 2018, 23:27 »
    Dunno, barring mishaps there's going to be little change in GC until next weekend* which doesn't give the opposition much opportunity to overturn Dumoulin's TT advantage which I'm guessing at 3:30 over Yates, maybe more over Pinot & Chaves.

    On the other hand it doesn't give much opportunity to ride into/out of form. You can read it either way.



    *Stage 11 could produce time gaps I suppose.

    Chances are I'll be proved wrong but I think Yates will lose somewhere between 2 to 2 minutes 30 seconds with Chaves and Pinot losing 30 seconds to a minute more so given the climbing to come after the TT Yates might be happy to go into the second rest day with just a minute over Dumoulin and with the TT and subsequent climbing after that still feel he has a good chance of winning.
  • ReplyReply

  • M Gee

    • Road Captain
    • Country: us
    • Posts: 1681
    • Liked: 1437
    • The user formerly known as hiero
    Re: Giro 2018 - Rest Day #2
    « Reply #5 on: May 13, 2018, 23:37 »
    Ah well, wishful thinking I guess...

    Well, since I'm rooting for Dumoulin, it would be wishful thinking on my part. It looked to me like your wish came 75% true - they only didn't bounce Dumoulin around - but he's not a climber - and tends to set his pace and just hold on as best he can.

    T A P P O N E !  :cool
     . . .

    From my morning coffee grumblings today:

    So, i think this must have been very much a dream come true for the #mitchelton team then:
    It is actually not just Yates and Chaves, the whole #mitchelton team is on fire at the moment, and they managed to convert their good physical form to results. Superior performance.

    The other topic that will be discussed I think is #sky Froome who seemed to suffer a bonk like 2013 Alpe D'Huez? I think this comes close to the worst mountain stage I have ever seen him ride, if not injured. Somewhere there are probably more informed guessings with respect to what is "wrong".

    #sunweb Tom Dumoulin lost a comfortable number of seconds, I think more or less according to plan. His team seems to be a little  better than I thought but they are not a match for Astana and Mitchelton.
       

    I'll have to look at the stage details, but I think you are right. #sunweb is for sure no match for #mitchelton, maybe #astana as well. But I don't think Tom is at all off pace. He should be a little concerned, truly, but he's still very much in there, I think.

    Oh, yes, and chapeau to #mitchelton for excellent team riding. Really good stuff from them. I'll be happy if they take 2-3. ;)
  • ReplyReply
  • . . .He had the bit between his teeth, and he loiked the taste, mate . . .

    AG

    • Monument Winner
    • *
    • Country: au
    • Posts: 6510
    • Liked: 3915
    • Awards: Winner, 2013 National Championships prediction gameFan of the Year 2013
    Re: Giro 2018 - Rest Day #2
    « Reply #6 on: May 14, 2018, 00:59 »
    yeah froome seemed to bonk pretty hard ... it wasnt his usual yo-yoing off the back either, he was there one minute and gone the next.  He had Kiry with him and he didnt last that long so must have been pretty tough.

    The rest just seemed to keep chugging away.  Astana had set a furious pace for a long time on the front, so I think everyone was pretty much empty well before the top.

    I do think Froome (if he stays in the race) and Dumoulin have a very good advantage in the TT against the other contenders, so they can afford to lose a bit.  Dumo looked pretty good so far.

    Still a looonnngggg way to go in this Giro
  • ReplyReply

  • M Gee

    • Road Captain
    • Country: us
    • Posts: 1681
    • Liked: 1437
    • The user formerly known as hiero
    Re: Giro 2018 - Rest Day #2
    « Reply #7 on: May 14, 2018, 01:55 »
    You know, I've been dissing Yates, as it seems both bros suffer from some malady or another in week 2 or 3 of whatever they've done.

    But I may have to adjust my stance here. Take a look at the prologue. Yates only lost 20 seconds over 9 km. Over 34 km that would be something just over half a minute. Chavez, otoh, was WAY down. Like 46 seconds off the winning pace. Dumo will clobber him in the ITT. But if Yates DOESN'T have a bad day, this could be a real competition.

    Capt Cavman, getting it right?

    http://velorooms.com/index.php?topic=9006.msg2239938#msg2239938

    [Edit]
    I've just scanned thru the stage profiles, and I have to conclude that Dumoulin is in big trouble. Yates is in #pink, with 4 riders down between 30" and 1'. Another 2 riders down less than 2'. And two, remotely possible more, GC riders who might have the chops to make up that much time and more in the stages to come (Froome, Aru, etc). Dumoulin is merely 38" off the pace ATM. Key words there being ATM.

    BARRING ACCIDENTS OR INCIDENTS:

    Stage 10 will see no change in GC.
    Stage 11 - the finishing ramps are steep, and present opportunities.
    Stage 12 - NC for GC
    Stage 13 - another one for the sprinters only
    Stage 14 - Monte Zoncolan. What more can be said? A day for Yates and Chavez, et al, and for Dumoulin to survive.
    Stage 15 - a mountain stage, but the finishing profile is not severe. Should be NC for GC.

    Stage 16 - the ITT. If Dumo only gains 30-40 seconds on Yates here, I think he will lose his chance for #pink in Rome.
    Stage 17 - sprinters or break. NC for GC
    Stage 18 - not technically a mt stage, and no severe ramps - just a long gradual climb - but Yates and Chavez have already picked up time on exactly this sort of profile. Danger, Will Robinson, danger!
    Stage 19 - mt stage
    Stage 20 - mt stage



    So, a lot of places for the climbers to gain more time, and only one TT for Dumo to kill. This is not good.



  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: May 14, 2018, 02:33 by M Gee »

    AG

    • Monument Winner
    • *
    • Country: au
    • Posts: 6510
    • Liked: 3915
    • Awards: Winner, 2013 National Championships prediction gameFan of the Year 2013
    Re: Giro 2018 - Rest Day #2
    « Reply #8 on: May 14, 2018, 03:03 »
    I would think Dumo could count on at least a minute in the ITT.    9km is very different to 34km ... and it was 20 seconds in 9 .. so 4 times that is 1 minute 20 ... and I think actually it will be a little more.

    Still - Dumoulin will lose more time on the other mountains for sure.  He just has to keep his own pace and hold his nerve.  Trying to go with them when he cant will be his undoing. 
  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • World Champion
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 10797
    • Liked: 11270
    • Awards: Member of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Member of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Giro 2018 - Rest Day #2
    « Reply #9 on: May 14, 2018, 08:07 »
    the GC discussion from the Stage 9 thread has been moved over here. Feel free to add whatever you like :cool
  • ReplyReply

  • Capt_Cavman

    • Road Captain
    • Country: jp
    • Posts: 1917
    • Liked: 1283
    Re: Giro 2018 - Rest Day #2
    « Reply #10 on: May 14, 2018, 08:31 »
    Chances are I'll be proved wrong but I think Yates will lose somewhere between 2 to 2 minutes 30 seconds with Chaves and Pinot losing 30 seconds to a minute more so given the climbing to come after the TT Yates might be happy to go into the second rest day with just a minute over Dumoulin and with the TT and subsequent climbing after that still feel he has a good chance of winning.
    Yes, with more careful analysis it does look as if the days of putting 3-4 minutes into GT rivals over a medium length TT are in the past for now. So I'll go with your guess.

    Yates vs Pinot, well Yates  has never done a TT of note but they have tended to come in GTs after he'd already started to fade and his 7th in the prologue was on the money and coming from the track should give him a sound technique although it doesn't always translate into results. So whereas I agree that Pinot is stronger on paper, I think there are good grounds for reality being different.

    M Gee, no not really the scenario I was after, I wanted Chaves to bridge across and Haig to swing off. It was all very attritional, keeping it controlled and going for bonuses paying off with limited risk. Doesn't make for exciting racing though.
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: May 14, 2018, 10:26 by Capt_Cavman »

    Mellow Velo

    • Road Captain
    • Country: wales
    • Posts: 2231
    • Liked: 2296
    • Awards: 2015 CQ Vuelta Game winnerVelogames Classics Champion 20142013 CQ Ranking Giro Game
    Re: Giro 2018 - Rest Day #2
    « Reply #11 on: May 14, 2018, 08:32 »
     Accidents aside, Dumoulin should have around a 2 minute lead over Yates after the ITT.
    Probably close to 3 over Chaves. I'm less sure about Pinot and Pozzo as the can surprise.

    Last year Dumoulin took 2'42" from Pinot and 3'07" from Pozzovivo over just under 40kms. This year it's 35kms.
    He came into that stage level with Pinot and already 54" ahead of diddy Domenico.
    He then took another 1'-42" from Pinot and a whopping 2-49" from Pozzovivio over another 30kms in Milan.


    So accumulative ITT gains gave Tom a lead of  4'-24" over Pinot and accumulative gains of a whopping 6'-50" over Pozzovivo.

    The final GC:-
    Tom Dumoulin
    Thibaut Pinot  @ 1'-17"
    Domenico Pozzovivo  @ 3'-11"

    However, this year he does not have that 30km safety net waiting for him Rome.
    Do the Math, as the Americans say. (we say maths, cos of it's many branches)
  • ReplyReply
  • "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.

    Capt_Cavman

    • Road Captain
    • Country: jp
    • Posts: 1917
    • Liked: 1283
    Re: Giro 2018 - Rest Day #2
    « Reply #12 on: May 14, 2018, 12:07 »
    I've just had a look at Simon Yates's prediction for Stage 11 on the BBC https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cycling/43891228 and his pre-race favourite for the stage was...
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .
    .

    Simon Yates.
  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • World Champion
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 10797
    • Liked: 11270
    • Awards: Member of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Member of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Giro 2018 - Rest Day #2
    « Reply #13 on: May 14, 2018, 13:52 »
    Accidents aside, Dumoulin should have around a 2 minute lead over Yates after the ITT.

    https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/996009687958147072

    Currenly he is 38s ahead, so that would be ~1:30 then. And Yates (and others) should gain quite a bit of time on the Zoncolan
  • ReplyReply

  • Caruut

    • 2nd Year Pro
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 375
    • Liked: 502
      • Sporcle quizzes on cycling.
    • Awards: Post of 2014
    Re: Giro 2018 - Rest Day #2
    « Reply #14 on: May 14, 2018, 16:28 »
    Agree we've never seen Froome like this. I think he's either injured or was hoping to ride himself into form, thinking the damage would be very limited on these early climbs. The presence of Dumo may be haunting him a little too - the TT is not the same confidence-boosting comfort blanket with him lurking. The 2 minutes to Dumoulin are probably more of a worry for Froome than the 2.5 to Yates as I see him losing probably 30s to big Tom in the TT, which means 2m30 to make up in attacks somewhere even if he can overhaul his deficit to Yates in the TT. That's not happening on current form and even if it did could leave him exposed to attacks from #mitchelton

    I see Yates probadly losing about 2.5-3 minutes to Dumoulin, Chaves about 30s more, so Dumoulin'll lead after the TT, and then hopefully the 1-2 punches from #mitchelton begin. Stage 19 looks like the killer to me. One of Kreuziger or Nieve in the break up the Cat 2 climb, the other guarding the leaders, and hopefully either Haig or Juul Jensen in the break too. Then Chaves takes it on over Finestre or Sestriere, linking up with the break in the valley. That valley is so dangerous to an isolated rider with attackers up the road, you could easily end up dragging your rivals along for 20km if the situation plays out that way. Then either Chaves takes #pink or Yates springs on the final climb for a knockout blow.

    That's what I'm hoping for at least :shh

  • ReplyReply

  • Caruut

    • 2nd Year Pro
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 375
    • Liked: 502
      • Sporcle quizzes on cycling.
    • Awards: Post of 2014
    Re: Giro 2018 - Rest Day #2
    « Reply #15 on: May 14, 2018, 16:35 »
    Accidents aside, Dumoulin should have around a 2 minute lead over Yates after the ITT.
    Probably close to 3 over Chaves. I'm less sure about Pinot and Pozzo as the can surprise.

    Last year Dumoulin took 2'42" from Pinot and 3'07" from Pozzovivo over just under 40kms. This year it's 35kms.
    He came into that stage level with Pinot and already 54" ahead of diddy Domenico.
    He then took another 1'-42" from Pinot and a whopping 2-49" from Pozzovivio over another 30kms in Milan.


    So accumulative ITT gains gave Tom a lead of  4'-24" over Pinot and accumulative gains of a whopping 6'-50" over Pozzovivo.

    The final GC:-
    Tom Dumoulin
    Thibaut Pinot  @ 1'-17"
    Domenico Pozzovivo  @ 3'-11"

    However, this year he does not have that 30km safety net waiting for him Rome.
    Do the Math, as the Americans say. (we say maths, cos of it's many branches)


    I think if we're gonna start adding and subtracting time to judge a rider's "true" level it's probably only fair to assume Dumoulin's sorted his nutrition issues and give him an extra 2m for "the incident"
  • ReplyReply

  • Slow Rider

    • Classics Winner
    • Country: nl
    • Posts: 2603
    • Liked: 2494
    Re: Giro 2018 - Rest Day #2
    « Reply #16 on: May 14, 2018, 18:27 »
    Honestly, I think there is no way Dumoulin is going to win this Giro. He'll lose some time on every major MTF in this race, and won't get enough back in the time trial. He'll finish with a respectable 3rd-5th place and 2 time trial stage wins, but that won't satisfy him.

    Yates, Chaves and Pinot are the main contenders for me, and from those somehow Pinot feels the most likely winner. Pozzovivo is also still up there in time, but the thought of him potentially winning a GT is just too weird to even consider.

    Major disappointments so far: Froome and Aru obviously, but also Miguel Angel Lopez. I had expected much more from him. Hopefully he'll improve and do some crazy things in the third week.
  • ReplyReply

  • t-72

    • Road Captain
    • Country: no
    • Posts: 1514
    • Liked: 2649
    Re: Giro 2018 - Rest Day #2
    « Reply #17 on: May 14, 2018, 19:18 »
    Someone said something about the correct way to spell mathematics.

    There is a discussion about how much Dumoulin can take in the time trial, and I think one of the better data points isn't in the discussion. I have disassembled the results from last year's world championship, found the split time at 27.6 km - the "bike change stop" in Vetrlidsalmenningen, just where the climbing part started. In other words, these are the results for the flat part, and it is a little bit shorter than the upcoming  stage 16 time trial. Keep in mind, that is not until after the next rest day!

    teamriderintermediate time @ 27.6 kmdifference/km (seconds) difference 34.2 km
    #sunweb Tom Dumoulin00:34:300,000
    #sky Vasil Kyrienka00:35:101,4550
    #katusha Tony Martin00:35:201,8162
    #sky Chris Froome00:35:211,8563
    #lotto Victor Campenaerts00:35:432,6490
    #bmc Rohan Dennis00:35:563,12107
    #bmc Nicholas Roche00:35:563,12107
    #astana Alexey Lutsenko00:36:354,53155
    #trek Jarlinson Pantano00:37:115,83200
    #wilier Eugert Zhupa00:40:5213,84473
    Note differences are shown in seconds.

    I am only showing riders competing both in the Bergen world championship last year and the Giro now. It can be assumed that most present at the championship actually tried their best (representing their country and all that) for the day, but I don't think any competitors except Tom Dumoulin and Primoz Roglic really targeted the race, eyeing a chance to win. Froome came right out of the Vuelta, and was quite cautious and defensive in pre-race interviews (maybe we know why, now...)

    However, it is a starting point for a discussion - how bad are "the climbers" in this race really? Can we expect #mitchelton Yates to perform on par with #bmc Dennis in the worlds? That will be just short of 2 minutes behind TD. No one expects #mitchelton Chaves to perform as good as Yates in the ITT, so he might be down there with compatriot Pantano, perhaps? - 200 seconds. 3 minutes and then some.

    And what about #sky Froome? if he looses one more minute to Dumoulin, where is he going to claw back the 3 he'll be trailing them. Is that in advance, maybe on the Zoncolan - or the stage after, which will be very hard for all those that dig really deep on the 15% slopes...

    Personally, I don't really like the Zoncolan. It is ridiculously steep and just a little accelration sends the riders into the red, so it is more like a tortoise version of a drag race. Not completely uninteresting but not that fun either. I expect something like the Gran Sasso, minus team tactics, and thus less interesting to watch. At 15 kilometers an hour, drafting isn't really important.

    I think it is the stage after the Zoncolan, next Sunday,  from Tolmezzo to Sapada, 175 km up and down up and down up and down etc, which will be this week's fireworks stage. Lots of options for tactics, team riding and for bonking on a climb. Whoever starts the days with two tanks of lactic acid where their legs should be,  is going to loose the giro on that day. I am sorry it is so long to wait for the good stuff this week  :)
  • ReplyReply

  • Carlo Algatrensig

    • National Champion
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 767
    • Liked: 879
    Re: Giro 2018 - Rest Day #2
    « Reply #18 on: May 14, 2018, 19:37 »
    Someone said something about the correct way to spell mathematics.

    There is a discussion about how much Dumoulin can take in the time trial, and I think one of the better data points isn't in the discussion. I have disassembled the results from last year's world championship, found the split time at 27.6 km - the "bike change stop" in Vetrlidsalmenningen, just where the climbing part started. In other words, these are the results for the flat part, and it is a little bit shorter than the upcoming  stage 16 time trial. Keep in mind, that is not until after the next rest day!

    teamriderintermediate time @ 27.6 kmdifference/km (seconds) difference 34.2 km
    #sunweb Tom Dumoulin00:34:300,000
    #sky Vasil Kyrienka00:35:101,4550
    #katusha Tony Martin00:35:201,8162
    #sky Chris Froome00:35:211,8563
    #lotto Victor Campenaerts00:35:432,6490
    #bmc Rohan Dennis00:35:563,12107
    #bmc Nicholas Roche00:35:563,12107
    #astana Alexey Lutsenko00:36:354,53155
    #trek Jarlinson Pantano00:37:115,83200
    #wilier Eugert Zhupa00:40:5213,84473
    Note differences are shown in seconds.

    I am only showing riders competing both in the Bergen world championship last year and the Giro now. It can be assumed that most present at the championship actually tried their best (representing their country and all that) for the day, but I don't think any competitors except Tom Dumoulin and Primoz Roglic really targeted the race, eyeing a chance to win. Froome came right out of the Vuelta, and was quite cautious and defensive in pre-race interviews (maybe we know why, now...)

    However, it is a starting point for a discussion - how bad are "the climbers" in this race really? Can we expect #mitchelton Yates to perform on par with #bmc Dennis in the worlds? That will be just short of 2 minutes behind TD. No one expects #mitchelton Chaves to perform as good as Yates in the ITT, so he might be down there with compatriot Pantano, perhaps? - 200 seconds. 3 minutes and then some.

    And what about #sky Froome? if he looses one more minute to Dumoulin, where is he going to claw back the 3 he'll be trailing them. Is that in advance, maybe on the Zoncolan - or the stage after, which will be very hard for all those that dig really deep on the 15% slopes...

    Personally, I don't really like the Zoncolan. It is ridiculously steep and just a little accelration sends the riders into the red, so it is more like a tortoise version of a drag race. Not completely uninteresting but not that fun either. I expect something like the Gran Sasso, minus team tactics, and thus less interesting to watch. At 15 kilometers an hour, drafting isn't really important.

    I think it is the stage after the Zoncolan, next Sunday,  from Tolmezzo to Sapada, 175 km up and down up and down up and down etc, which will be this week's fireworks stage. Lots of options for tactics, team riding and for bonking on a climb. Whoever starts the days with two tanks of lactic acid where their legs should be,  is going to loose the giro on that day. I am sorry it is so long to wait for the good stuff this week  :)


    Thanks for the analysis. Anything with numbers and extrapolation like that always interests me.

    I suppose the analysis that you've made all depends on which way you look at it. You ask the question

    "Can we expect #mitchelton Yates to perform on par with #bmc Dennis in the worlds?" to which my answer would be no.

    had you asked

    "Can we expect #mitchelton Yates to perform on par with #bmc Roche in the worlds?" I would probably say yes. Given the 2 BMC's performed identically in the worlds I would have made two seemingly contradictory responses.

    I do agree with you about stage 15. Could be where Dumoulin could be open to the sort of day he had when he lost the 2015 Vuelta.
  • ReplyReply

  • LukasCPH

    • World Champion
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 11045
    • Liked: 6917
      • lukascph.media
    • Awards: Staff of the year 2016Staff of the year 2015Velorooms Tour de France BINGO champion 2014National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014Velorooms Monday Quiz ChampionPoster of the Year 2013
    Re: Giro 2018 - Rest Day #2
    « Reply #19 on: May 14, 2018, 19:52 »
    Agree we've never seen Froome like this. I think he's either injured or was hoping to ride himself into form, thinking the damage would be very limited on these early climbs. The presence of Dumo may be haunting him a little too - the TT is not the same confidence-boosting comfort blanket with him lurking. The 2 minutes to Dumoulin are probably more of a worry for Froome than the 2.5 to Yates as I see him losing probably 30s to big Tom in the TT, which means 2m30 to make up in attacks somewhere even if he can overhaul his deficit to Yates in the TT. That's not happening on current form and even if it did could leave him exposed to attacks from #mitchelton

    I see Yates probadly losing about 2.5-3 minutes to Dumoulin, Chaves about 30s more, so Dumoulin'll lead after the TT, and then hopefully the 1-2 punches from #mitchelton begin. Stage 19 looks like the killer to me. One of Kreuziger or Nieve in the break up the Cat 2 climb, the other guarding the leaders, and hopefully either Haig or Juul Jensen in the break too. Then Chaves takes it on over Finestre or Sestriere, linking up with the break in the valley. That valley is so dangerous to an isolated rider with attackers up the road, you could easily end up dragging your rivals along for 20km if the situation plays out that way. Then either Chaves takes #pink or Yates springs on the final climb for a knockout blow.

    That's what I'm hoping for at least :shh


    I'll take it! :cool
  • ReplyReply
  • Cyclingnews Women's WorldTour Correspondent
    2017 0711|CYCLING PR Manager; 2016 Stölting Content Editor
    Views presented are my own. RIP Keith & Sean

    t-72

    • Road Captain
    • Country: no
    • Posts: 1514
    • Liked: 2649
    Re: Giro 2018 - Rest Day #2
    « Reply #20 on: May 14, 2018, 19:58 »
    Oh... Finestre!

    Remember that this climb eats some of the lighter climbers, Contador was basically chanceless up here agains Landa, Aru and ... Hesjedal? (Can't remember details except Contador lost more than 2 minutes on that stage!)

    It was a bit like watching climbers fail at cobbles racing, he seemed to not get enough traction to propel himself forwards!
  • ReplyReply

  • M Gee

    • Road Captain
    • Country: us
    • Posts: 1681
    • Liked: 1437
    • The user formerly known as hiero
    Re: Giro 2018 - Rest Day #2
    « Reply #21 on: May 14, 2018, 22:18 »
    I would think Dumo could count on at least a minute in the ITT.    9km is very different to 34km ... and it was 20 seconds in 9 .. so 4 times that is 1 minute 20 ... and I think actually it will be a little more.

    Still - Dumoulin will lose more time on the other mountains for sure.  He just has to keep his own pace and hold his nerve.  Trying to go with them when he cant will be his undoing. 

    Yep, my Mathematics was bad. Sorry.

    Still, I'm rooting for Tom, but I think there is a consensus that he is in big trouble - this will be a difficult win. Esp compared to last year, which, all in all, was pretty comfortable except for a few moments.
  • ReplyReply

  •  



    Top
    Back to top