M Gee

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  • The user formerly known as hiero
. . .

Yates - doing well but needs time on Dumoulin

Dumoulin - in the best position here.  Has it pretty much in hand, but not in pink so has no responsibility

Pinot - looking fine but needs time on Dumoulin and Yates

Pozzivivo - never going to win but looking great for a nice GC position

Froome - nearly getting to the point where he cant come back from some of those guys ... and definitely not to Dumoulin.

Ok, MV, I watched the stage from about 80km out. Yup - I can see the teams worked harder than they wanted to - but not as hard as they could have. So we had a few teams - out of the GC battle - willing to push the pace. Hmmmm, interesting.

AG's estimation is pretty good in my thinking. I am not as optimistic for Dumoulin as AG, but it is a close thing. I am not as pessimistic regarding Froome as AG, either.

However, traditionally, the GC would be as good as decided by now - at least who would be in the top 5. However, a number of factors affect my crystal-balling of results this time. Like
* Yates is more than "unproven" over 3 weeks
* Froome IS proven over 3 weeks, and we have some monster mt stages coming up. He is way far back, if we were dealing with the usual GC contenders, it would surely be unrecoverable. However,
* Dumoulin is solid over 3 weeks - that is proven. However, while he may be a "climber", he is a bigger, heavier rider than the "climbers", and both Froome and Yates likely have an advantage on him on the real climbs.
* Yates is picking up seconds, and bonus seconds, using late accelerations. Well-timed, and amazingly strong - but he isn't really gaining time on the CLIMB - he is gaining late seconds by being able to accelerate late in a climb. Contador had a similar talent, but on the big climbs, it would frequently be smothered by other riders taking their pace and working their way back.

The result is that I am not convinced we know the Giro winner yet. I could go with a bet on either Yates or Dumoulin. Froome is, at this point, a dark horse, but a good bet as the underdog.

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  • . . .He had the bit between his teeth, and he loiked the taste, mate . . .

     



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