Mellow Velo

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 Saturday, 26 May 2018 - The final mountain stage of the Giro d'Italia is going to finish at the base of the Matterhorn, in Cervinia. The last mountains of the 2018 edition of the Giro d'Italia are tucked away in the last 84 kilometres of the 214 kilometres haul.
Cervinia lies on the southern slopes of the Matterhorn, a giant that’s peaking at 4,478 metres. The village itself is located at 2,006 metres and to get there the riders face a long and irregular climb. False flat sections are interspersed with steeper parts, while the real drudgery is the sheer length of 18.2 kilometres. Just before halfway the steepest kilometre goes up at 9.3%.
In the 2015 Giro Fabio Aru won in Cervinia after a 236 kilometres mountain stage. Three years before that, in 2012, Andrey Amador took the stage honours, while Ryder Hesjedal climbed to pink in the ski-resort.
Following 130 kilometres on the flat the Col Tsecore and Col de Saint-Pantaléon are the prelude to the last climb to Cervinia. Arguably, the Tsecore is the hardest climb of the day. At 16 kilometres, the average gradient is 7.7%, while the last 5 kilometres go up at 9.3%.

Up next is the Col de Saint-Pantaléon, a 16.5 kilometres climb at 7.2%. The first half is averaging 7.9% before the second half is an irregular affair with kilometres at 3.2% and 4.1%, while the steepest section is the last 2 kilometres before the top, which rises at 8.9%.

The first 3 kilometres to Cervinia go up at 3.2% and then the slope continues at 7% until halfway up the mountain. But that average gradient is biased as some parts are merely a false flat and the riders also tackle the aforementioned kilometre at 9.3%. After 9.5 kilometres the climb becomes more steady with an average gradient of 6.6% before the last 2 kilometres flatten out to 1.3%.

The home straight (450 m long, on 7-m wide asphalt road) has a 4% gradient. Note that the route passes through two well-lit tunnels over the final 6 km.

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SUSA
 I have been to Susa more times than I can count.

 Susa is located where the plain and the mountains meet at 50 km from Turin.
The town gained the title of “Gateway to Italy” thanks to its strategic position at the crossroads between the Moncenisio and the Monginevro passes.
It was a Celtic settlement, thrived under the Roman Empire and, after a period of decline, flourished again in the Middle Ages.
The town’s long history is apparent in its numerous, exceptional monuments.
Today Susa is a lively town much appreciated by tourists and animated by events which reconnect it to its illustrious past.


CERVINIA

Breuil-Cervinia is one of the main tourist resorts of the Aosta Valley, belonging to the municipality of Valtournenche. Word-class winter and summer destination, it is located at an altitude of 2050 meters a.s.l. in an alpine setting dominated by the unique Matterhorn pyramid (4478 m.).


Favourites 20th stage 2018 Giro d’Italia
:*:*:*:*:* Miguel Ángel López, Domenico Pozzovivo
:*:*:*:* Fabio Aru, Chris Froome, Thibaut Pinot
:*:* Tom Dumoulin, Simon Yates, Wout Poels
:* Richard Carapaz, Davide Formolo, Luis Leon Sanchez, George Bennett, Pello Bilboa

I'm really guessing here, though, with stage 19 to come...
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  • "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.

    t-72

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    On the long and twisting descent from Col Tsecore, the race will pass this place, where someone will make a stupid mistake, making someone else angry  :)

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    well well, this should be a nice fight for the win and for the podium, with 1st and 2nd as well as 3rd and 4th only separated by 40 seconds.

    Also the mountain classification is still up for grabs though, with 105pt (3x35pt) on the table tomorrow.

    The following riders are still the fight for it:

    Team Corridore punti
    1      #sky      FROOME Chris      123
    2      #blue      YATES Simon Philip      91
    3      #fdj      PINOT Thibaut      70
    4      #movistar      CARAPAZ Richard      65
    5      #bardiani      CICCONE Giulio      52
    6      #sunweb      DUMOULIN Tom      49
    7      #mitchelton      CHAVES Jhoan Esteban      47
    8      #bahrain      POZZOVIVO Domenico      40
    9      #ag2r      MONTAGUTI Matteo      37
    10      #astana      LOPEZ MORENO Miguel Angel      37
    11      #quickstep      SCHACHMANN Maximilian      35
    12      #androni      MASNADA Fausto      35
    13      #uae      CONTI Valerio      34
    14      #astana      SANCHEZ Luis Leon      22

    There's quite a good chance for a successful breakaway tomorrow I guess - and even if not, with high certainty an early escape group will take the points of the first climb at least, so that basically leaves Pinot, Carapaz, Dumoulin, Pozzovivo and Lopez without much of a chance to win the jersey. Even if anyone of them takes full points on two climbs, Froome is likely to be not too far away either and thereby make up the deficit again. The points scheme is 35-18-12-9-6-4-2-1 for the Top 8

    So we realistically have nine contenders for #blue

    Team Corridore punti
    1      #sky      FROOME Chris      123
    2      #blue      YATES Simon Philip      91
    5      #bardiani      CICCONE Giulio      52
    7      #mitchelton      CHAVES Jhoan Esteban      47
    9      #ag2r      MONTAGUTI Matteo      37
    11      #quickstep      SCHACHMANN Maximilian      35
    12      #androni      MASNADA Fausto      35
    13      #uae      CONTI Valerio      34
    14      #astana      SANCHEZ Luis Leon      22

    starting at the bottom of the table:

    • #astana Luis Leon Sanchez takes the jersey, if he wins on all three climbs, Froome doesn't score more than 3 points and Yates not more than 36. All others are irrelevant. So basically, if he wins from a breakaway of 7 guys or more, without Yates
    • #uae Valerio Conti takes the jersey if he wins on all three climbs, Froome doesn't score more than 17 points and Yates doesn't come 2nd to him on all three climbs. All others are irrelevant.
    • #androni Fausto Masnada or #quickstep Max Schachmann takes the jersey if either of them wins on all three climbs, Froome doesn't score more than 16 points and Yates doesn't come 2nd to him on all three climbs. All others are irrelevant.
    • #ag2r Matteo Montaguti takes the jersey if he wins on all three climbs, Froome doesn't score more than 17 points and Yates doesn't come 2nd to him on all three climbs. Or if he comes 1st, 1st, and 2nd on the climbs, Froome scores less than 2 points, and Yates not more than 33. All others are irrelevant.
    • #mitchelton Esteban Chaves takes the jersey if he wins on all three climbs and Froome doesn't score more than 28 points. Or if he wins 2 climbs, comes and least 4th on the other, with Froome scoring less than 3, 6 or 12 points (depending on Chaves' position) and Yates less than 35, 38 or 44. All others are irrelevant.
    • #bardiani Giulio Ciccone takes the jersey if he wins on all three climbs and Froome doesn't score more than 33 points. Or if he wins two climbs, comes at least 7th on the other, with Froome scoring less than 1, 3, 5, 8, 11 or 17 points (depending on Ciccone's position) and Yates less than 33, 35, 38, 41, 44 or 50. All others are irrelevant.
    • #mitchelton Simon Yates takes the jersey, if he takes 33 points more than Froome and neither of the scenario above occure to happen
    • #sky Chris Froome keeps the jersey íf neither of the scenario above occure to happen

    so to cut a long story short (this took way more time than I planed to spend...  :S): Yates is unlikely to recover and score any points anyway and Montaguti and Masnada are just not good enough. So that leaves us with the following options:

    • #astana Luis Leon Sanchez takes the jersey, if he wins on all three climbs and Froome doesn't score more than 3 points
    • #uae Valerio Conti takes the jersey if he wins on all three climbs and Froome doesn't score more than 17 points.
    • #quickstep Max Schachmann takes the jersey if he wins on all three climbs and Froome doesn't score more than 16 points
    • #mitchelton Esteban Chaves takes the jersey if he wins on all three climbs and Froome doesn't score more than 28 points. Or if he wins 2 climbs, comes and least 4th on the other, with Froome scoring less than 3, 6 or 12 points (depending on Chaves' position).
    • #bardiani Giulio Ciccone takes the jersey if he wins on all three climbs and Froome doesn't score more than 33 points. Or if he wins two climbs, comes at least 7th on the other, with Froome scoring less than 1, 3, 5, 8, 11 or 17 points (depending on Ciccone's position)
    • #sky Chris Froome keeps the jersey íf neither of the scenario above occure to happen
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  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    Joelsim

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    Aru DNF today.
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  • LukasCPH

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    Also the mountain classification is still up for grabs though, with 105pt (3x35pt) on the table tomorrow.
    So really only Lulu, Chaves, Ciccone, or Froome. ;)

    Schachmann is still a bit sick (cold), finished in Yates' group today, will be happy to get through this final mountain stage without losing too much time.
    And Conti I don't see taking that many points. Maybe I missed the days he was showing himself, but I haven't seen him much at all this Giro. Where did he get his 34 points? Picked them up in several (doomed) breakaways?

    Chaves ... I think he just wants to get this Giro over with by now. And Lulu has to overcome a huge deficit.

    To sum up, it's Ciccone or Froome for me. :shh
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    Chaves ... I think he just wants to get this Giro over with by now. And Lulu has to overcome a huge deficit.

    To sum up, it's Ciccone or Froome for me. :shh

    yes, the deficit is huge - but (surprisingly) it doesn't really make much of a difference compared to Ciccone. If Sanchez wins all three climbs, Ciccone finishes behind him, no matter what.
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  • LukasCPH

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    yes, the deficit is huge - but (surprisingly) it doesn't really make much of a difference compared to Ciccone. If Sanchez wins all three climbs, Ciccone finishes behind him, no matter what.
    That is true - but I don't see them leaving this to the break all the way to the finish.

    Ciccone could take points on the first two climbs, then be caught in the final kilometre, and still take the jersey (I think). For Sanchez, that's not enough.
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    Ciccone could take points on the first two climbs, then be caught in the final kilometre, and still take the jersey (I think). For Sanchez, that's not enough.

    indeed, yeah. Winning the first two climbs (probably against others still trying to compete for it as well), then getting caught and still finishing 7th at least (and ahead of Froome!) at the finish is a super hard ask for Ciccone as well though.

    Either way, Froome is probably going to take it in the end. Let's hope we'll get to see a fight for it at least though :cool
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  • M Gee

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    Aru abandoned? WTF??? Chavez has been way under par, and Aru somewhat the same, although not quite as much. But another wow for this Giro.
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  • Eeyore sez . . .

    Mellow Velo

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     Just to warn folks that for today, the race schedule breaks to mold.
    Due to finish one hour earlier than normal.
    Live coverage starts one hour early to compensate.

    http://www.steephill.tv/2018/giro-d-italia/timetable-20.pdf
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Now confirmed as Astana's motivation for riding on the front.

    "Pinot was riding in the red all week, today he cracked, he already had a bad night, I had a bad feeling for today, it was tragic, it was total misery" - Jeremy Roy.

    So sad, both him and Yates, but perhaps it adds some context to the stage 19 debate.
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    this is really a bit heartbreaking for him. 2nd year in a row Pinot gets on the podium during the final weekend but loses it right the day after.
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  • LukasCPH

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    this is really a bit heartbreaking for him. 2nd year in a row Pinot gets on the podium during the final weekend but loses it right the day after.
    And now he's apparently transported to hospital in an ambulance with symptoms of exhaustion. :(

    I hope he'll be alright.
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  • Joelsim

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    Well done to Superman in his first Giro.

    Without the ITT losses and a field he’d have been right up there.

    I personally think there should never be more time trialling than 15km in total in a GT.
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    definitely a good result for him, finishing on the podium. He also was a bit sick during week 2, which surely didn't help... but wasn't that performance on the climbs still quite a bit below expectations?!
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  • LukasCPH

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    I personally think there should never be more time trialling than 15km in total in a GT.
    I beg to differ.
    In my opinion there should be variety. Some years where a GT has a lot of timetrialling, some years where there's hardly any, and some years where the amount of TT is average.
    And they can also adapt it by having different ITTs - not just in length, but in type as well: Flat power, hilly, technical, MTTs, and those with real climbs (the Giro had some of those a few years back).

    There shouldn't be any one formula for a GT route.
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  • Joelsim

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    I just think that when a good ITT guy can put 3+ minutes into a small climber it’s a bit unfair. I understand time trailing should be pat of it, but nowhere near as much as we have.
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  • Joelsim

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    definitely a good result for him, finishing on the podium. He also was a bit sick during week 2, which surely didn't help... but wasn't that performance on the climbs still quite a bit below expectations?!

    Maybe. Or your could argue that he’s shot his bolt a couple of times in smaller races, so he may have been just seeing how he went in what was his first real attempt at GC. We saw what happened to Pinot and Yates.

    I guess the Vuelta will be indicative.
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  • LukasCPH

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    #mitchelton Nieve gets free rein after Yates is out of GC contention, goes into the break and wins the stage.
    Behind, #groupama Pinot is today's victim, imploding completely on the Finestre, losing almost 30 minutes to the #rosa Froome at the finish; after the stage, he's admitted to hospital for observation. Yates also trundles along in the gruppetto.

    Froome is essentially unthreatened, able to respond to every little move Dumoulin makes on the Jafferau climb.




    News on Pinot:
    https://twitter.com/GroupamaFDJ/status/1000448485882294272

    I guess he'll be DNS tomorrow.
    EDIT: I hear now that he's apparently abandoned already (though that would still be a DNS tomorrow, technically).
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  • M Gee

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    . . .

    I guess he'll be DNS tomorrow.
    EDIT: I hear now that he's apparently abandoned already (though that would still be a DNS tomorrow, technically).

    Geez, I hope he is all right. I've come to admire him immensely for his willingness to attack, and consistency.
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    I guess he'll be DNS tomorrow.
    EDIT: I hear now that he's apparently abandoned already (though that would still be a DNS tomorrow, technically).

    if he is still in Aosta, that means he didn't take the flight to Rome, yeah. Too bad
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