Men's Road Cycling > Connect the Dots - Transfer Predictions 2018/19
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Leadbelly

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Connect the Dots - Transfer Predictions 2018/19
« on: June 09, 2018, 10:01 »
The 'Transfers and Rumors' thread very much is full of news from other sources. This is a more speculative version of the same thread, asking "who should go where?"

...or as it's been said in previous years' threads, "predict the transfer before the rumour".

So we don't want to hear about GVA to Bahrain please. ;)

I'll say we got a couple right last year, even if I'm sure the Kittel one had already been rumoured beforehand.
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  • L'arri

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    Mezgec #mitchelton --> #bora
    Good leadout man but if Ewan is leaving anyway ...

    Cavagna #quickstep --> #ag2r
    Massively strong rouleur, underused at an overtalented team

    Elissonde #sky --> #ag2r
    Bardet needs a better climbing dom with Sky insider knowledge

    Gougeard #ag2r --> #efd
    Naesen rules at AG2R while EF's Classics team is ageing; guy needs to stop wasting his talents on attacks and become more of a leader

    Frank #ag2r --> #trek
    Hasn't done much good with Lavenu. Bit of a loner, so suits this team.

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  • Cycling is a Europe thing only and I only watch from Omloop on cause I am cool and sh*t
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    t-72

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    OK, I predict that following the drama following the verdict and the appeal and god knows what comes out of Chris Froome's Salbutamol case, he will have a fallout with the management in his current team and the eventual outcome will be (6 months, 1 year  or maybe even 2-3 years ahead):

    #sky Chris Froome -----> #didata

    Like Cavendish, he'll bring some sponsors of his own and he'll build 40-50% of the team around himself.

    EDIT: I first hinted at this in the Chris Froome thread on the darkside forum a few days back, but I think it is so wilidly speculative it belongs here  :D
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  • L'arri

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    #sky Chris Froome -----> #didata

    And what a brave new world that would be. Almost a different pro cycling. :D
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  • LukasCPH

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    #sky Chris Froome -----> #didata
    I'd put the chance of this happening at maybe 0.01%.
    But if it did ... oh boy.

    Back in the #mtn2013 days in 2013, their DS Jens Zemke (now with #bora) told me that while they would love to sign Froome, there was just no way in hell they could afford him.

    Even with Dimension Data on board now and some 'personal sponsors' brought on by Froome, I still don't see it happening.
    Not so much because it would fly in the face of the team's vision to develop African cycling - Froome is the first African GT winner, after all! But Doug Ryder doesn't strike me as the guy who would put absolutely his entire team behind one rider in that way.

    Then again, I thought much the same before they signed Cav, so what do I know. :D
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    pastronef

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    Elissonde #sky --> #ag2r
    Bardet needs a better climbing dom with Sky insider knowledge


    Dave please, splash the cash and keep him ;)
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  • pastronef

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    the spanish guy says Thomas to Trek is a badly kept secret.
    I think it´s just a rumor for now

    https://www.twitter.com/alexrodrigo29/status/1005509999513276422

    I´d love that anyway
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  • t-72

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    I'd put the chance of this happening at maybe 0.01%.
    But if it did ... oh boy.

    Back in the #mtn2013 days in 2013, their DS Jens Zemke (now with #bora) told me that while they would love to sign Froome, there was just no way in hell they could afford him.

    Even with Dimension Data on board now and some 'personal sponsors' brought on by Froome, I still don't see it happening.
    Not so much because it would fly in the face of the team's vision to develop African cycling - Froome is the first African GT winner, after all! But Doug Ryder doesn't strike me as the guy who would put absolutely his entire team behind one rider in that way.

    Then again, I thought much the same before they signed Cav, so what do I know. :D

    WAIT WAIT WAIT! There is precedence, and it is just not about Cavendish - you just haven't thought about it: A mid size European squad previously known as Netapp-Endura was transmogrigified into the #bora team that we know today. If you can sign riders at the Sagan level, they bring so much market value with them, the economy seems to sort itself out anyway. Froome is at the Sagan level, but as a sponsor object not equally valuable for obvious reasons.

    Basically what needs to happen for Froome to sign anywhere else is for Froome to decide that he wants to ride for a different team , and then his contractual commitments to Sky to be fulfilled. (I assume none of us know the terms). He can make  any grand tour he want to at this point (except maybe the 2017 Vuelta ;) ) and he can also make any cycling team he wants.
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  • Leadbelly

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    ...or as it's been said in previous years' threads, "predict the transfer before the rumour"

    the spanish guy says Thomas to Trek is a badly kept secret.
    I think it´s just a rumor for now

    https://www.twitter.com/alexrodrigo29/status/1005509999513276422

    Pastryyyyyy! :angry :spank :P
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  • Leadbelly

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    Navardauskas --------> #academy

    Bahrain are on a big recruitment drive, so there'll have to be some casualties. Ramunas will complete the Baltic Connection for the Bike Geeeeeeeeeks. It's either him or Baggy.

    Jorgenson ---------> #axeon

    At Jelly Belly at the moment, but been riding entirely so far this year with the US U23s in Europe. Has impressed with some good performances in his first year out of juniors.
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  • L'arri

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    Mertz #lotto --> #wanty

    A good lad but hasn't done much beyond domestique duties in his two seasons with Sergeant. Maybe just a Walloon quota thing. :P

    Wouters #lotto --> #crelan

    Solid at U23 but not much to show for his two seasons at Lotto either. When you think about what Benoot or Lambrecht did in their first showings ...

    James Shaw #lotto might get to hang on though.

    Martin #katusha --> #bora

    A last hurrah for a fading legend? He can't have had happy times at KAT though.
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  • Carlo Algatrensig

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    the spanish guy says Thomas to Trek is a badly kept secret.
    I think it´s just a rumor for now

    https://www.twitter.com/alexrodrigo29/status/1005509999513276422

    I´d love that anyway

    When I saw the annual/biennial article on cyclingnews about Thomas having offers from other teams my first reaction was that it'll follow its usual path of announcing a contract extension with Sky on one of the Tour rest day and I still think that will happen. He should have left 5 or 6 years ago if he was going to go, at 32 years old I think it would take a massive offer to move him away from Sky now.
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  • « Last Edit: June 09, 2018, 21:37 by Carlo Algatrensig, Reason: I originally said bianual when i meant biennial »

    LukasCPH

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    Here's one from me:
    Alexander Krieger #leopard --> #wallonie or #wanty
    Krieger has found a nice niche for himself at #leopard - but he's shown his versatility and strength in several .1 and .HC races now, with 5th in hilly Luxembourg and 9th in hilly-but-still-finishing-in-a-sprint Köln the latest results.
    It's unusual these days for a rider to turn pro only at 27, but I can see some teams taking a punt on him.

    After several years with a *lu team (and having grown up in Baden-Württemberg), his French ought to be decent enough for it not to be a barrier if he's offered a contract by #wallonie. Alternatively, there's #wanty who have had the odd German (in no small part because of bike sponsor Cube).
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  • bikeracer33

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    Mezgec #mitchelton --> #bora
    Good leadout man but if Ewan is leaving anyway ...


    or join his compats at #bahrain
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  • Leadbelly

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    Well if Ewan goes to Lotto, how about someone going the other way...

    Greipel -------> #mitchelton

    If Ewan left they'd only have Trentin and Edmondson (?) for sprints. I'm not aware of any good young Aussie sprinters coming through, so why not use Andre as a stop gap for a couple of years.

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  • Carlo Algatrensig

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    Not exactly connecting the dots but give recent performances is

    Stephen Williams  #seg  ----->  #sky

    A completely unrealistic transfer?
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  • search

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    #manzana Fabio Duarte --> #movistar Movistar

    Looking at their transfer policy (Betancur, Valls, Sepulveda...) Fabio's performance so far this season must be poor enough to attract Movistar's interest :D
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  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    L'arri

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    Not exactly connecting the dots but give recent performances is

    Stephen Williams  #seg  ----->  #sky

    A completely unrealistic transfer?

    I think there will be a lot of interest in Williams and he is ready to step up now at 22, but I don't see #sky signing him with all the talent it hired in 2017. Elsewhere the future of #bmc might also play a role in how many doors are open to him.

    As well as his team, #seg is also his agent, so it will look to place him wherever it has firm connections. So far this has been in teams with a strong *be and *nl management presence: #quickstep #katusha #roompot #jumbo. I could also see a path to #mitchelton depending on what the Yateses do.

    As an aside, SEG's placement rate so far is pretty low in comparison to a similar team like #axeon. Some of the team's alumni (e.g. Schultz, Bokeloh) look like they went off and got their own deals elsewhere. And although Jakobsen has been an instant hit, Lefevere seems to be talking up his future relationship with Merckx these days.

    SEG will also be looking to shift Jan Maas off the books this year. A talented lad and a shoo-in for #sunweb or Jumbo if they have space on their rosters.
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  • L'arri

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    « Last Edit: June 15, 2018, 14:05 by LukasCPH »

    pastronef

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    http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/bouhanni-its-complicated-at-cofidis/

    Bouhanni #cofidis --> ANYWHERE!  :o

    maybe they strike a deal: Bouhanni cancels his 2019 deal with Cofidis and Cofidis re-ups with Laporte for 2019 (his contract ends this year)

    ;)
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  • L'arri

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    maybe they strike a deal: Bouhanni cancels his 2019 deal with Cofidis and Cofidis re-ups with Laporte for 2019 (his contract ends this year)

    ;)

    I think this is indeed what will happen eventually. Bouhanni is never going to want to stay unless he can't get a deal anywhere else, while there will be nobody else at #cofidis to take the #1 sprinter role from Laporte.
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  • L'arri

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    This thread needs some good guesses in the event of a #bmc meltdown. Even if Ochowicz hangs on, some riders will inevitably leave.

    #katusha should buy up a few riders if it has the money because it badly needs experienced riders. That team is in a woeful state after putting up for Kittel and, so far at least, getting very little in return.

    Caruso or De Marchi could be a good fit, because Zakarin appears to lack climbing support. #trek might fancy them too. Teuns has wilted in 2018 and he would be a good buy for any WT team, such as #jumbo or #sunweb, which might need something more in the Ardennes Classics and short stage races.

    Dennis ... well he might expect absolute leadership. Not #ef again but perhaps #didata. Personally I still don't see him as a GT contender and he doesn't see himself as that either, he might fit in at #sky or #bahrain or even #uae, which lacks a decent TTer.

    Van Avermaet I just don't know. #sky might have the money for a standout cobbled Classics man. It still doesn't have one yet until Moscon matures, Kwiatkowski decides to focus on them or Thomas (assuming he is re-signed) comes to understand his proper place again. GVA and the Sky culture though ... hmm, does not compute, but then again if GVA were allowed to do things his way ...
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  • Carlo Algatrensig

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    [quote author=L'arri link=topic=9060.msg2241513#msg2241513 date=1529497297

    Van Avermaet I just don't know. #sky might have the money for a standout cobbled Classics man. It still doesn't have one yet until Moscon matures, Kwiatkowski decides to focus on them or Thomas (assuming he is re-signed) comes to understand his proper place again. GVA and the Sky culture though ... hmm, does not compute, but then again if GVA were allowed to do things his way ...
    [/quote]

    My guess for GVA would be one of the Lottos.
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  • Leadbelly

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    This thread needs some good guesses in the event of a #bmc meltdown. Even if Ochowicz hangs on, some riders will inevitably leave.

    Unsurprisingly there are a lot of rumours flying around already for these guys.

    Dennis is 90% certain of going to #bahrain according to CN.

    GVA has been heavily linked to #bahrain and #lotto.

    Caruso. Can't remember exactly, but I think #ag2r and one of the Gulf teams have been mentioned.

    I will have a proper guess though and say that I can see Jempy at AG2R if it goes tits up at BMC.
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  • pastronef

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    no place for Caleb Ewan in the Mitchelton team for the TDF
    I guess he already signed elsewhere for 2019 (maybe Lotto-Soudal as the rumors said)
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  • AG

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    yeah just came here to say exactly that ... I am guessing he has already signed somewhere else
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  • Carlo Algatrensig

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    A few more suggestions for the grand liquidation of  #bmc

    Gerrans ---------> Retirement
    TJVG ------------->  #efd
    Roche ------------>  #uae or a French team that he hasn't previously ridden for.
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  • L'arri

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    A few more suggestions for the grand liquidation of  #bmc

    Gerrans ---------> Retirement
    TJVG ------------->  #efd
    Roche ------------>  #uae or a French team that he hasn't previously ridden for.

    Good picks. I do think Gerrans is headed for the glue factory. He's too pro to 'phone his lines in but it's weird not to see him wheelsucking in the vanguard of races this season.

    The fragility of #bmc might represent the right moment for Van Garderen to look for pastures new. At #efd he would be a big fish in a very small pond and nobody else there would clash with his rider profile. Woods and Uran he ain't. What he might struggle with is the diet they all have to follow there because this team is generally way too skinny.

    Roche, well, he's like an old-timer road captain sort of guy now. Very pro and very limited but solid for any team that craves the gravitas of a senior figure. I don't seem him willing to step down from WT though. Like with Gerrans, I think he'd see that as beneath him.
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  • pastronef

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    Caleb Ewan has followed Trek-Segafredo on instagram  ;) ; :lol
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  • L'arri

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