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Re: Tour 2018: Stages 1-3 / Grand Départ
« on: July 08, 2018, 00:59 »
OK, after that warmer-up, here comes my stats - nerd post of the day!

I have visited ProCyclingStats, looked at their ranking system and noted down how many one-day race PCS points and GC PCS points all the GC riders have.

On the profile, it looked like a sprint stage. It could have turned out to be the longest crosswind sailing race of the year, but this was the first stage and the flat profile hid a couple of sharp turns and narrow roads in the final 10 km. And thehoa....there you go - suddenly the whole race looked a lot more like a sprint-friendly spring classic, where getting to the sprint is a big deal and actually performing in the sprint becomes secondary.

My point is - among the GC racers (both yellow and white jersey candidates) this really did split the field quite well, between the GC candidates with extensive top-level one-day racing experience and success on one side - and the pure stage racers that don't do one-day races (Hi, Chris!) on the other side.

Only one GC candidate (of 12) with more than 500 one-day points lost time - #mitchelton Adam Yates.
6 out of 10 GC candidates with less than 500 one-day points lost time today.
This means, that on a stage like today it is more than 7 times more probable that a GC candidatew with limited one-day results to loose time.

In the table, the groups have different background color and the riders with less than 500 one-day points have pink text, whereas the ones with more than 500 one-day points have black text. It is easy to see (if your're not colorblind...) that the black text signifying "top one-day racers" dominate the upper part and the pink text signifying "pure GC stage-racers" the lower part of the table.

This  indicate quite clearly that there is a value (measured in Tour de France seconds) of preparing for and performing in major one-day races, for stages like today. The question is, why?

Very Interesting indeed

I did not think that classics experience would have mattered quite so much - but it clearly does.

From looking at the results, I think my CQ game choice of Thomas is a good one - I can see him in yellow for quite some time from stage 3 onwards.
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