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Tour de France 2018: Grand Départ

Stages 1-3, on July 7th to 9th

For the 6th time in the history of the Tour de France, Vendée will host the Grand Départ of the race.

Many of us will still remember the spectacular Passage du Gois stretch of the race from 1999, when a 25-rider crash caused several pre-race favourites to lose 6 minutes to their rivals. The four-kilometre causeway, submerged by the tide twice a day, same as in 2011 will also host the start of this year's race.

With six foreign starts over the the last couple of years and those in France taking place in the Principality of Monaco, on Corsica, at the island monastery of Mont-Saint-Michel in Normandy, and now for the 2nd time on the island of Noirmoutier, this means that none of the past 10 Grand Départs of the race has taken place on the French mainland.

It'll not take them long before the riders reach the Côte de Lumière coastline though. They'll cover it for 110 km then and make their way across the Marais poitevin before finishing in Fontenay le Comte.

Stage 1: Noirmoutier-en-l'Île / Fontenay-le-Comte

In 2011, the peloton rolled over the Passage du Gois in procession ahead of racing starting at kilometre 0 once it hit the coast, but this does not seem to be the case this time. So with the wet roads and (dependent on the weather conditions) a potentially windy passage afterwards, we may get to see some action right from the start. Nonetheless, a sprint probably seems to be the most likely outcome for the first day of the race.

Stage 2: Mouilleron-Saint-Germain / La Roche-sur-Yon

The second stage then sets off on 8 July 2018 from Mouilleron-Saint-Germain, the home of Georges Clemenceau. The 176 riders will travel 183 kilometres on rolling roads before arriving in La Roche-sur-Yon for another sprint finish.

Stage 3: Cholet / Cholet

The Vendée region is hosting the 2018 Grand Départ jointly with the Pays de la Loire region which lies to the east, and where a team time trial takes place in Cholet on Stage 3 the following day:

[M Gee]

Excellent commentary for stage 1, with the Passage de Gois, and the 110 km of coastline to follow. While it is unlikely to affect many, it is possible. And, it is certainly possible that one or two GC contenders will be put on a disadvantage - losing time early. Remember, 2015 was only 3 years ago - and Quintana lost more time in the first week than he was able to make up. The final deficit to Froome in Paris was less than that time lost.

[Carlo Algatrensig]

Have I read that they won't be going over the passage du gois this time. With the race being a week later than originally planned the timing of the tides means it will be under water.

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Have I read that they won't be going over the passage du gois this time. With the race being a week later than originally planned the timing of the tides means it will be under water.

you are right indeed, they are using the bridge instead. I missed that. Too bad, too bad

[M Gee]

Well, well, well. A LOT more excitement for stage one than I expected. We have time gaps for GC! So, Nibali and Dumoulin managed to stay with the front group - and Bob Jungels, did too. although I didn't put him on the list of GC favs. Quintana, Froome - gapped.

[Drummer Boy]

https://twitter.com/Vaughters/status/1015618718280404992

[t-72]

Uhmmm... I think we need a results post as a warmer up to today's stats-nerd overdose (wait for it!)


The Wolfpack simply wolfpacking the sprint, with 4 riders up there where other teams had 2 (bora) and 1 all the others.
From the results, all the other sprint trains apparently (maybe not ) derailed long before the sprint. Gaviria was not the fastest today but he had the team to make his speed count.

Also noted how "fading" sprinters Kittel and Kristoff suddenly are ... almost there again (and that, quite unsupported in the final, as far as I could see). And  Sagan, back at whaht he is beyond doubt best at - 2nd place stage finishes in the Tour de France 

The GC was absolutely carnage due to the last 10 km or so, with all the 3 big favorites Quintana, Porte, Froome loosing time - and my comment to that is in the next, slightly more nerdy post...   

[M Gee]

Yeah, the Craddock thing - painful. But there is good news for Uran, and others:

Stage 1 Results
COL  1  GAVIRIA RENDON, Fernando (QUICK - STEP FLOORS)     4:23:32
SVK  2  SAGAN, Peter (BORA - HANSGROHE)                   
GER  3  KITTEL, Marcel (KATUSHA ALPECIN)                   
NOR  4  KRISTOFF, Alexander (UAE TEAM EMIRATES)           
FRA  5  LAPORTE, Christophe (COFIDIS, SOLUTIONS CREDITS)   
NED  6  GROENEWEGEN, Dylan (LOTTO NL - JUMBO)             
AUS  7  MATTHEWS, Michael (SUNWEB)                         
GER  8  DEGENKOLB, John (TREK - SEGAFREDO)                 
DEN  9  FUGLSANG, Jakob (ASTANA)                          
POL  10 MAJKA, Rafal (BORA - HANSGROHE)                   
ITA  11 NIBALI, Vincenzo (BAHRAIN - MERIDA)               
BEL  12 DUPONT, Timothy (WANTY - GROUPE GOBERT)           
FRA  13 BOUDAT, Thomas (DIRECT ENERGIE)                   
GBR  14 THOMAS, Geraint (SKY)                              
LUX  15 JUNGELS, Bob (QUICK - STEP FLOORS)                 
DEN  16 VALGREN ANDERSEN, Michael (ASTANA)                 
ARG  17 RICHEZE, Maximiliano Ariel (QUICK - STEP FLOORS)   
BEL  18 GILBERT, Philippe (QUICK - STEP FLOORS)           
NOR  19 BOASSON HAGEN, Edvald (DIMENSION DATA)             
ITA  20 COLBRELLI, Sonny (BAHRAIN - MERIDA)               
BEL  21 STUYVEN, Jasper (TREK - SEGAFREDO)                 
ITA  22 PASQUALON, Andrea (WANTY - GROUPE GOBERT)         
FRA  23 ALAPHILIPPE, Julian (QUICK - STEP FLOORS)          
BEL  24 VAN AVERMAET, Greg (BMC RACING)                   
KAZ  25 GRUZDEV, Dmitriy (ASTANA)                         
GER  26 GREIPEL, André (LOTTO SOUDAL)                     
NED  27 DUMOULIN, Tom (SUNWEB)                             
FRA  28 BARGUIL, Warren (TEAM FORTUNEO - SAMSIC)          
BEL  29 BENOOT, Tiesj (LOTTO SOUDAL)                       
SLO  30 KOREN, Kristijan (BAHRAIN - MERIDA)               
ESP  31 SANCHEZ, Luis León (ASTANA)                       
ESP  32 LANDA MEANA, Mikel (MOVISTAR)                      
BEL  33 LAMPAERT, Yves (QUICK - STEP FLOORS)               
FRA  34 BARDET, Romain (AG2R LA MONDIALE)                  
RSA  35 JANSE VAN RENSBURG, Reinardt (DIMENSION DATA)     
GBR  36 CAVENDISH, Mark (DIMENSION DATA)                   
BEL  37 NAESEN, Oliver (AG2R LA MONDIALE)                 
ESP  38 VALVERDE, Alejandro (MOVISTAR)                     
GER  39 ZABEL, Rick (KATUSHA ALPECIN)                     
NED  40 MOLLEMA, Bauke (TREK - SEGAFREDO)                 
FRA  41 MOLARD, Rudy (GROUPAMA - FDJ)                     
NED  42 KRUIJSWIJK, Steven (LOTTO NL - JUMBO)             
RUS  43 ZAKARIN, Ilnur (KATUSHA ALPECIN)                   
COL  44 URAN, Rigoberto (EF EDUCATION FIRST - DRAPAC)     
ITA  45 OSS, Daniel (BORA - HANSGROHE)                     
FRA  46 CALMEJANE, Lilian (DIRECT ENERGIE)                 
FRA  47 SIMON, Julien (COFIDIS, SOLUTIONS CREDITS)         
FRA  48 TURGIS, Anthony (COFIDIS, SOLUTIONS CREDITS)       
NZL  49 SMITH, Dion (WANTY - GROUPE GOBERT)               
ESP  50 IZAGIRRE INSAUSTI, Gorka (BAHRAIN - MERIDA)       
GER  51 POLITT, Nils (KATUSHA ALPECIN)                     
IRL  52 MARTIN, Daniel (UAE TEAM EMIRATES)                 
FRA  53 PICHON, Laurent (TEAM FORTUNEO - SAMSIC)           
SLO  54 ROGLIČ, Primož (LOTTO NL - JUMBO)                 
USA  55 VAN GARDEREN, Tejay (BMC RACING)

And some lost time:
AUS  83 PORTE, Richie (BMC RACING)                            + 51
GBR  84 YATES, Adam (MITCHELTON - SCOTT)                   
FRA  85 ROLLAND, Pierre (EF EDUCATION FIRST - DRAPAC)     
FRA  86 VICHOT, Arthur (GROUPAMA - FDJ)                   
NED  87 MINNAARD, Marco (WANTY - GROUPE GOBERT)           
ESP  88 IZAGIRRE INSAUSTI, Ion (BAHRAIN - MERIDA)         
NED  89 TOLHOEK, Antwan (LOTTO NL - JUMBO)                 
NED  90 DE KORT, Koen (TREK - SEGAFREDO)                   
GBR  91 FROOME, Chris (SKY)           

With Quintana losing even more time:
112    NAIRO QUINTANA   71   MOVISTAR TEAM   +  01' 15''   

The formula used to be that the first week didn't really matter. What mattered was what happened in the mountains. It seems to me that has been less true this past decade or so. Still has some truth, but not as much. And given the depth of competition in this Tour, I think it will be more true this year.

And I think a Movistar showdown in the Alps is now a sure thing.

[t-72]

OK, after that warmer-up, here comes my stats - nerd post of the day!

I have visited ProCyclingStats, looked at their ranking system and noted down how many one-day race PCS points and GC PCS points all the GC riders have.

On the profile, it looked like a sprint stage. It could have turned out to be the longest crosswind sailing race of the year, but this was the first stage and the flat profile hid a couple of sharp turns and narrow roads in the final 10 km. And thehoa....there you go - suddenly the whole race looked a lot more like a sprint-friendly spring classic, where getting to the sprint is a big deal and actually performing in the sprint becomes secondary.

My point is - among the GC racers (both yellow and white jersey candidates) this really did split the field quite well, between the GC candidates with extensive top-level one-day racing experience and success on one side - and the pure stage racers that don't do one-day races (Hi, Chris!) on the other side.

Only one GC candidate (of 12) with more than 500 one-day points lost time - Adam Yates.
6 out of 10 GC candidates with less than 500 one-day points lost time today.
This means, that on a stage like today it is more than 7 times more probable that a GC candidatew with limited one-day results to loose time.


In the table, the groups have different background color and the riders with less than 500 one-day points have pink text, whereas the ones with more than 500 one-day points have black text. It is easy to see (if your're not colorblind...) that the black text signifying "top one-day racers" dominate the upper part and the pink text signifying "pure GC stage-racers" the lower part of the table.

This  indicate quite clearly that there is a value (measured in Tour de France seconds) of preparing for and performing in major one-day races, for stages like today. The question is, why?
 

[M Gee]

Now if only you could hear a val-girl in your head: "OMG, like, where are you from? Some baseball sports bar?"   [1]

1.	Lovin' it, dude, lovin' it!

[Joelsim]

Gaviriaaaaaaaaa!

Couldn’t watch it today as there was something else on.

[Leadbelly]

https://twitter.com/VelonCC/status/1015613932575305729

There has to be some sort of correlation going on, but despite the finishing positions I don't know if today's closing kilometres were necessarily classic-ish enough to show it. Was it not just one of those days you get early on in the Tour? More than a few nerves, jostling for position etc etc.

[M Gee]

https://twitter.com/VelonCC/status/1015613932575305729

There has to be some sort of correlation going on, but despite the finishing positions I don't know if today's closing kilometres were necessarily classic-ish enough to show it. Was it not just one of those days you get early on in the Tour? More than a few nerves, jostling for position etc etc.

Could be, could be! We've been getting those "nervous early days" more and more over the years I've watched. Just like races are now often raced full gas from the gun. It seems like we always get them now. I've not watched the stage yet myself, either. Download recording time!

[AG]

OK, after that warmer-up, here comes my stats - nerd post of the day!

I have visited ProCyclingStats, looked at their ranking system and noted down how many one-day race PCS points and GC PCS points all the GC riders have.

On the profile, it looked like a sprint stage. It could have turned out to be the longest crosswind sailing race of the year, but this was the first stage and the flat profile hid a couple of sharp turns and narrow roads in the final 10 km. And thehoa....there you go - suddenly the whole race looked a lot more like a sprint-friendly spring classic, where getting to the sprint is a big deal and actually performing in the sprint becomes secondary.

My point is - among the GC racers (both yellow and white jersey candidates) this really did split the field quite well, between the GC candidates with extensive top-level one-day racing experience and success on one side - and the pure stage racers that don't do one-day races (Hi, Chris!) on the other side.

Only one GC candidate (of 12) with more than 500 one-day points lost time - Adam Yates.
6 out of 10 GC candidates with less than 500 one-day points lost time today.
This means, that on a stage like today it is more than 7 times more probable that a GC candidatew with limited one-day results to loose time.


In the table, the groups have different background color and the riders with less than 500 one-day points have pink text, whereas the ones with more than 500 one-day points have black text. It is easy to see (if your're not colorblind...) that the black text signifying "top one-day racers" dominate the upper part and the pink text signifying "pure GC stage-racers" the lower part of the table.

This  indicate quite clearly that there is a value (measured in Tour de France seconds) of preparing for and performing in major one-day races, for stages like today. The question is, why?
 

Very Interesting indeed

I did not think that classics experience would have mattered quite so much - but it clearly does.

From looking at the results, I think my CQ game choice of Thomas is a good one - I can see him in yellow for quite some time from stage 3 onwards.

[Leadbelly]

https://twitter.com/LeTour/status/1016007756464078848

[Leadbelly]

TTT order:

https://cyclingpro.net/spaziociclismo/tour-2018/tour-de-france-2018-ordine-di-partenza-della-cronosquadre-sky-per-seconda-nibali-oltre-unora-dopo/

MITCHELTON – SCOTT
TEAM SKY
MOVISTAR TEAM
GROUPAMA – FDJ
BMC RACING TEAM
TEAM EF EDUCATION FIRST – DRAPAC
UAE TEAM EMIRATES
AG2R LA MONDIALE
TEAM FORTUNEO – SAMSIC
DIRECT ENERGIE
LOTTO SOUDAL
TEAM LOTTO NL – JUMBO
COFIDIS SOLUTIONS CREDITS
TEAM SUNWEB
TEAM DIMENSION DATA
TEAM KATUSHA ALPECIN
BAHRAIN – MERIDA
TREK – SEGAFREDO
ASTANA PRO TEAM
WANTY – GROUPE GOBERT
QUICK – STEP FLOORS
BORA – HANSGROHE

Reverse order of team classement, but with Bora and the Yellow Jersey going last.

[Mellow Velo]

 Avondetappe point the finger at Sagan for not only cutting up Degenkolb, but also initiating Impey's crash that took out Gaviria and the rest.
Seen in close up, he switches from the left side to the right to dive bomb into the corner and clips Impey, who then has nowhere to go, so hits Pasqualon's wheel.

[M Gee]

Avondetappe point the finger at Sagan for not only cutting up Degenkolb, but also initiating Impey's crash that took out Gaviria and the rest.
Seen in close up, he switches from the left side to the right to dive bomb into the corner and clips Impey, who then has nowhere to go, so hits Pasqualon's wheel.

I really enjoy Sagan, but I STILL think he caused last year's crash with Cav. He was moving to the right and closing Cav out. Sure Cav was moving up, but Sagan shut the door on him. I looked at the replay trying to see it differently, and just can't. I haven't seen today's stage yet, but if he caused this crash - well - he just needs to get his .... together and straighten that ..... out. Can't be having stuff like that.

[M Gee]

A more positive sort of post:

https://twitter.com/belmcleod/status/1015567241130082304

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TTT result including splits

		INT 1		INT 2		FIN
1		14:13.30 (03.)	<- 14:43.53 (02.) ->	28:56.83 (01.)	<- 09:49.45 (04.) ->	38:46.28
2		14:13.03 (02.)	<- 14:49.62 (04.) ->	29:02.65 (02.)	<- 09:47.80 (01.) ->	38:50.45
3		14:15.27 (05.)	<- 14:47.56 (03.) ->	29:02.83 (03.)	<- 09:50.19 (05.) ->	38:53.02
4		14:12.82 (01.)	<- 14:53.43 (07.) ->	29:06.25 (04.)	<- 09:48.94 (03.) ->	38:55.19
5		14:27.68 (09.)	<- 14:41.66 (01.) ->	29:09.34 (05.)	<- 09:48.38 (02.) ->	38:57.72
6		14:27.23 (08.)	<- 14:53.28 (06.) ->	29:20.51 (06.)	<- 10:00.85 (09.) ->	39:21.36
7		14:25.97 (06.)	<- 15:07.16 (10.) ->	29:33.13 (08.)	<- 10:03.37 (10.) ->	39:36.50
8		14:49.58 (15.)	<- 14:52.28 (05.) ->	29:41.86 (11.)	<- 09:55.89 (07.) ->	39:37.75
9		14:43.60 (12.)	<- 14:57.92 (08.) ->	29:41.52 (10.)	<- 09:57.07 (08.) ->	39:38.59
10		14:14.55 (04.)	<- 15:14.97 (13.) ->	29:29.52 (07.)	<- 10:10.14 (15.) ->	39:39.66
11		14:33.53 (10.)	<- 15:03.06 (09.) ->	29:36.59 (09.)	<- 10:15.54 (17.) ->	39:52.13
12		14:44.06 (13.)	<- 15:10.43 (11.) ->	29:54.49 (12.)	<- 10:06.88 (12.) ->	40:01.37
13		14:55.17 (19.)	<- 15:11.72 (12.) ->	30:06.89 (15.)	<- 09:54.76 (06.) ->	40:01.65
14		14:27.21 (07.)	<- 15:30.03 (18.) ->	29:57.24 (13.)	<- 10:05.17 (11.) ->	40:02.41
15		14:43.07 (11.)	<- 15:18.90 (14.) ->	30:01.97 (14.)	<- 10:22.71 (20.) ->	40:24.68
16		14:53.36 (17.)	<- 15:27.60 (17.) ->	30:20.96 (18.)	<- 10:07.14 (13.) ->	40:28.10
17		14:47.09 (14.)	<- 15:32.20 (19.) ->	30:19.29 (17.)	<- 10:13.39 (16.) ->	40:32.68
18		14:53.00 (16.)	<- 15:37.58 (21.) ->	30:30.58 (20.)	<- 10:07.35 (14.) ->	40:37.93
19		14:55.61 (20.)	<- 15:21.62 (15.) ->	30:17.23 (16.)	<- 10:20.77 (19.) ->	40:38.00
20		14:54.46 (18.)	<- 15:27.39 (16.) ->	30:21.85 (19.)	<- 10:17.07 (18.) ->	40:38.92
21		15:04.29 (22.)	<- 15:33.85 (20.) ->	30:38.14 (21.)	<- 10:31.92 (21.) ->	41:10.06
22		14:59.06 (21.)	<- 16:27.07 (22.) ->	31:26.13 (22.)	<- 10:43.27 (22.) ->	42:09.40