Leadbelly

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Stage 4 - La Baule > Sarzeau (192km)
« on: June 18, 2018, 12:00 »
Stage 4 - La Baule > Sarzeau (192km)



Expect to see Lappartient at the finish of the stage. He moonlights as the Mayor of Sarzeau.

Quote from: Prudhomme
The profile of the first stage in Brittany of the 2018 Tour will inspire the sprinters and require hard work from their team mates, while the breakaway riders will count on destiny. After a probable explanation by the sea between the “muscle-men” of the pack, the hierarchy between the sprint kings should start being established.





There really isn't a lot to say about this stage. That's why I chose it!

Expect the break to contain the riders who have picked up KoM points on the first two stages. Each of those contained only 1 cat 4 climb each, as does this stage. It's a much more up and down stage the day after, so this is the final chance for people who can't climb (Teklehaimanot?) to temporarily get their mitts on the polka dots.

Stages 1 and 2 should have given us a clue as to who is going well in the sprints. Some at the moment look decidedly out of form, but they'll be hoping it's alright on the night.

The yellow jersey could be up for grabs as well. It will depends on the gaps in the TTT, but if Gaviria/Sagan/Ewan/Matthews manage to pick up some bonifications today (along with some on earlier stages) that could be enough to effect a change.
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: Stage 4 - La Baule > Sarzeau (192km)
    « Reply #1 on: June 18, 2018, 13:24 »
    Expect to see Lappartient at the finish of the stage. He moonlights as the Mayor of Sarzeau.
    France. :D



    There really isn't a lot to say about this stage. That's why I chose it!
    Maybe you can say what that yellow B on the profile stands for, though?! :slow
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    Leadbelly

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    Re: Stage 4 - La Baule > Sarzeau (192km)
    « Reply #2 on: June 18, 2018, 13:53 »
    Maybe you can say what that yellow B on the profile stands for, though?! :slow

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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: Stage 4 - La Baule > Sarzeau (192km)
    « Reply #3 on: June 18, 2018, 18:57 »

    So an intermediate sprint without sprint points, just bonus seconds. Thanks! :cool

    A couple of years they replaced their three intermediate sprints with one big intermediate sprint that carried more points ... now that they realised that this limited the number of available bonus seconds too much, they just make up another category?
    Silly. :fp
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Stage 4 - La Baule > Sarzeau (192km)
    « Reply #4 on: July 09, 2018, 18:56 »
    Expect the break to contain the riders who have picked up KoM points on the first two stages. Each of those contained only 1 cat 4 climb each, as does this stage. It's a much more up and down stage the day after, so this is the final chance for people who can't climb (Teklehaimanot?) to temporarily get their mitts on the polka dots.

    After three stages the KoM situation is that Dion Smith and Kevin Ledanois are both on 1 point. Since we've only had the two category 4 climbs so far, the deciding factor between the two is GC position ie. Smith is the leader. So that means if you want to take the jersey off the New Zealander tomorrow you'll obviously need to win the single point on offer, but also be ahead of him in the GC (unless ofc you are Ledanois in which case taking the point will suffice).

    The two names currently ahead of Smith that might be bothered about the jersey are Hardy and Pichon. Both of Fortuneo. Could be a bit of a fight in the morning between the two PCT teams to see who gets away.

    Quote
    The yellow jersey could be up for grabs as well. It will depends on the gaps in the TTT, but if Gaviria/Sagan/Ewan/Matthews manage to pick up some bonifications today (along with some on earlier stages) that could be enough to effect a change.

    The only vaugely realistic chance of it changing hands tomorrow is if TJ finishes 70+ places in front of GVA.
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  • t-72

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    Re: Stage 4 - La Baule > Sarzeau (192km)
    « Reply #5 on: July 09, 2018, 22:26 »
    #quickstep Gilbert vs #bmc Van Avermaet..anyone heard that before?  :cool

    Forecast: Westerly wind up to some 10-12 m/s in gusts, so with the last half of the stage heading west, into the wind. Doesn't look like the day for a breakaway win, so expect it to be pro-conti only! (at least second part of the day). Quickstep too reel in the break before the bonification sprint, so Gilbert can attack Van Avermaet for the seconds.

    For the stage win...something seems to not work very well in #jumbo so I will put the money on #quickstep Gaviria again.
    Outsider: #lotto Andre Greipel has not shown his cards yet, and the stage profile seems to be just the way he likes it.
    #bora Sagan was clearly off the pace in the TTT today, so I think he'll not win - probably take 2nd.  :)

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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Stage 4 - La Baule > Sarzeau (192km)
    « Reply #6 on: July 10, 2018, 17:48 »
    https://twitter.com/LeTour/status/1016715304465027077

    ...... but the big news is that Smith kept hold of the KoM jersey. ;)

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  • t-72

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    Re: Stage 4 - La Baule > Sarzeau (192km)
    « Reply #7 on: July 10, 2018, 21:53 »
    My call for Greipel wasn't that bad... just a meter or so wrong. Anyway, good to see I was right that he wasn't in terrible shape and hadn't shown his hand just yet.

    The missing man in the sprints so far have been Groenewegen, but today he was closer to the action - even if all the buzz about the Beetrain has died down a little, and today it was weakened further after Jansen Valverde was involved in a fall. They chose to spend the train early as they were worried they couldn't keep up with the speed later, yet Groenewegen made it in in the second group of sprinters, after Gaviria/Sagan/Greipel.
    I wonder if Groenewegen is the sprint edition of #movistar Quintana: in the fourth week he has more left on the tank than any of the others!


     
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Stage 4 - La Baule > Sarzeau (192km)
    « Reply #8 on: July 11, 2018, 07:43 »
    Groenewegen was in my thoughts when I was putting together my Velogames team for the Tour. In my head he'd put in some impressive performances this year, but funnily enough when I went to PCS and checked out the results I didn't see many.

    I remember the first stage of Dubai where he had a great leadout, but that was the first race of the season for many, so we can't read too much into that. A win at KBK followed, but I didn't see that and a sprint at the end of a classic is different to a sprint at the end of a pan flat stage. Victory on stage 2 at PN is the only one I see where he beat numerous other top names in a big race (Sagan and Gaviria weren't there though).

    Anyway I don't know if that shows anything or not, but I decided in the end not to select him.
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