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Vuelta 2018 - Rest Day #2
« on: September 10, 2018, 08:18 »
Vuelta 2018 - Rest Day #2

One week after rest day #1, and with what felt like a lot of up and down for most, the standings in the top 3 are nonetheless the same. Yates still leads ahead of the two Movistars by a handful of seconds

1      #red   SIMON PHILIP YATES       -
2      #movistar   ALEJANDRO VALVERDE       + 00h 00' 26''
3      #movistar   NAIRO QUINTANA       + 00h 00' 33''
4      #astana   MIGUEL ANGEL LOPEZ MORENO       + 00h 00' 43''
5      #jumbo   STEVEN KRUIJSWIJK       + 00h 01' 29''
6      #quickstep   ENRIC MAS NICOLAU       + 00h 01' 55''
7      #fdj   THIBAUT PINOT       + 00h 02' 10''
8      #ef   RIGOBERTO URAN       + 00h 02' 27''
9      #bahrain   JON IZAGUIRRE INSAUSTI       + 00h 03' 03''
10      #bora   EMANUEL BUCHMANN       + 00h 03' 15''

Tomorrow's time trial is likely to change the order a bit, but not by too much. It should be a battle between the top 4 for the win, unless Kruijswijk can up his game or Pinot deliver a time trial like he used to do two or three years ago.

1      #green   ALEJANDRO VALVERDE       115 PTS
2      #bora   PETER SAGAN       83 PTS
3      #astana   MIGUEL ANGEL LOPEZ MORENO       71 PTS
4      #dimension   BENJAMIN KING       69 PTS
5      #bmc   DYLAN TEUNS       68 PTS
6      #quickstep   ELIA VIVIANI       66 PTS
7      #mitchelton   SIMON PHILIP YATES       65 PTS
8      #fdj   THIBAUT PINOT       56 PTS
9      #jumbo   DANNY VAN POPPEL       56 PTS
10      #sky   MICHAL KWIATKOWSKI       54 PTS

Still 6 stages to come, two straight forward bunch sprints, one time trial, and three mountain top finishes. So even if Sagan wins both sprints, he is unlikely to win the jersey. Same as Ben King, unless he wins another three stages from a breakaway. So Valverde should have this one in the bag, unless he completely cracks and Lopez wins all remaining mountain stages.

1      #vkom   LUIS ANGEL MATE MARDONES       64 PTS
2      #lotto   THOMAS DE GENDT       57 PTS
3      #dimension   BENJAMIN KING       56 PTS
4      #trek   BAUKE MOLLEMA       50 PTS
5      #ef   PIERRE ROLLAND       31 PTS
6      #astana   MIGUEL ANGEL LOPEZ MORENO       25 PTS
7      #fdj   THIBAUT PINOT       22 PTS
8      #mitchelton   SIMON PHILIP YATES       22 PTS
9      #sky   MICHAL KWIATKOWSKI       17 PTS
10      #movistar   ALEJANDRO VALVERDE       16 PTS

This one looked almost like a done deal last week with Mate picking up points left and right without much competition, but since then he started to pay for his efforts, fell sick, and was unable to collect many points over the past days, which has brought de Gendt, King and Mollema back in contention.

There are only three more days with mountain points on the table, one of those a one-climb stage (with 10pt at the MTF), unlikely to offer much chances to breakaways. So we have stage #17 and #20:

The Basque stage only offers 27 points, and with the contenders fighting each other, the changes in the standings will probably be minimal, even if a breakaway succeeds. So it's coming down to stage #20 with 5-10-10-10-3 points underway and 15 at the finish. It's real mountain stage in this Vuelta, so I guess the best climber from the Four will win, which at the moment seems to be #dimension Benajmin King.

Also the GC guys - Lopez in particular - still have theoretical chances, but I think they can be discounted. Even if he wins all remaining mountain stages, his points score would only add up to 57, so he would still need to pick up quite a lot of points underway.

He has a better chance to win the combined classification though...

1      #white   ALEJANDRO VALVERDE       13 PTS
2      #astana   MIGUEL ANGEL LOPEZ MORENO       13 PTS
3      #mitchelton   SIMON PHILIP YATES       16 PTS
4      #fdj   THIBAUT PINOT       22 PTS
5      #dimension   BENJAMIN KING       32 PTS
6      #movistar   NAIRO QUINTANA       40 PTS
7      #jumbo   STEVEN KRUIJSWIJK       44 PTS
8      #sky   MICHAL KWIATKOWSKI       45 PTS
9      #trek   BAUKE MOLLEMA       51 PTS
10      #bora   RAFAL MAJKA       52 PTS

...while the team classification will be decided between Movistar and Bahrain. Movistar will probably take it

1      #bahrain   BAHRAIN - MERIDA       -
2      #movistar   MOVISTAR TEAM       + 00h 03' 13''
3      #bora   BORA - HANSGROHE       + 00h 27' 23''
4      #sky   TEAM SKY       + 00h 36' 32''
5      #jumbo   TEAM LOTTO NL - JUMBO       + 00h 36' 51''
6      #astana   ASTANA PRO TEAM       + 00h 41' 16''
7      #ef   TEAM EF EDUCATION FIRST - DRAPAC P/B CANNONDALE       + 00h 44' 06''
8      #dimension   TEAM DIMENSION DATA       + 00h 49' 37''
9      #ag2r   AG2R LA MONDIALE       + 00h 56' 16''
10      #mitchelton   MITCHELTON - SCOTT       + 01h 01' 33''
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    Re: Vuelta 2018 - Rest Day #2
    « Reply #1 on: September 10, 2018, 10:19 »

    De Gendt is all in for a stage win and the KoM jersey.
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Vuelta 2018 - Rest Day #2
    « Reply #2 on: September 10, 2018, 13:29 »
    Izaguirre should win the ITT. The rest playing limiting their losses against Valverde.
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  • t-72

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    Re: Vuelta 2018 - Rest Day #2
    « Reply #3 on: September 10, 2018, 21:34 »
    I just like to leave it somewhere...

    #red #mitchelton Yates looks strong and he may ride more economically than in the Giro but
    #movistar Valverde actually looks just as strong

    however, both of those cater for many accelrations, one chasing the other or both chasing someone else

    The rider that doesn't do a lot of accelrations is
    #jumbo Steven Kruijswijk -- he is always on his own schedule it seems
    #movistar Quintana tries to follow that example, but he can't quite sit still with Valverde jumping around him

    Riders keep dropping (#ef uran, #sunweb Kelderman, #sky de la Cruz) from contention in the GC, but the among the top 5 nothing is decided yet, it all depends on who does better in the mythical third week.

    I don't think the colombian pecking order is written in stone...10 seconds  from Quintana to Superman is nothing, it can be flipped already after the time trial. The last stages...

    Stage 16 timetrial....advantage #movistar  #champes Valverde
    Stage 17 Balcon de Biscaya ...murito finish ... advantage #movistar Valverde #mitchelton Yates
    Stage 18 El viento puede cambiar todo  ... but it might just end in  a sprint finish...although, seriously this is 185 km naked road in a Europe's largest treeless plain.... outcome is random!
    Stage 19 that's what they call flat, actually a long soft monoclimb in the finale- advantage #astana Lopez, #jumbo Kruijswijk (hey Yates...remember that Paris Nice stage, yes that one...?)
    Stage 20 short stage with lots of up and down in the mountains. Quintana won something like that in the tour, Izaguirre wasn't bad in Paris-Nice final stage stay clear of your brother, ok! 
    Stage 21 victory parade

    It is  c o m p l e t e l y  o p e n, I have no idea of who will win except it is a rider in current top 5 I, make that 7....and it will be decided on stage 20.
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Vuelta 2018 - Rest Day #2
    « Reply #4 on: September 11, 2018, 10:19 »
    You’d imagine that the last few days will start to take their toll on Valverde.

    Oh wait...
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