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Joelsim

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You are of course forgetting the fact that CCC should get relegated at the end of the year unless GvA has an absolutely tremendous season and Marezcko comes good at WT level. They have literally no one else.
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    I think that part of the 2020 reform was scrapped, wasn't it?!

    Edit: yep, can't see anything that speaks against them getting a WT license again

    Quote
    Eighteen teams will possess a UCI WorldTeam licence awarded for a period of three years after a full evaluation of all the candidate teams (and not only the teams already in possession of a licence) according to ethical, administrative, financial and organisational criteria. The teams will need to fulfil these criteria every year. The sporting criterion will be evaluated at the end of a three-year period. The UCI WorldTeams will comprise 27 to 30 professional riders.

    https://www.uci.org/inside-uci/press-releases/men%27s-professional-road-cycling-changes-for-2020
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    Leadbelly

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    There won't be promotion and relegation once those 3 year licences have been handed out, but it's not a fait accompli that they or any other of the current WT teams will get those licences. Cofidis and Direct Energie have both talked about applying for 2020, so two teams from the twenty applicants will miss out.

    #wanty

    I used to think of Wanty as a bit of a joke team, probably very unfairly. Cisse de Greef might have had something to do with that. It's patently not the case any more. Winning the European Tour team classement for the past three years means they have to be taken very seriously.

    A smaller squad than their other main rivals, but with nearly as many potential big scorers. The main strengths lie in of course northern classics, punchy finishes and sprints. Martin is an option in tougher climbing races, but his lack of a kick means wins are going to be in short supply for him.

    A couple of negatives. Their transfer dealings over the winter probably weakened them in the short term (ie this year) as Smith + GVK > Vliegen + De Gendt and my gut feeling is that with them already punching above their weight, the chances of them being able to raise the bar much higher are slim.

    Top (ten?) riders:

    Backaert
    Baugnies
    De Gendt
    Dupont
    Eiking
    Martin
    Meurisse
    Pasqualon
    Vliegen
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  • Leadbelly

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    Ante-post ramblings done!

    My thoughts haven't changed much since I gave my initial rankings. I think it will be Cofidis and either Wanty or Direct Energie. Between those two a lot will depend on how Terpstra gets on. He won't repeat his 2018 performances, but if he can get 1000+ points that could be enough to edge DE ahead.
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  • Joelsim

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    Ante-post ramblings done!

    My thoughts haven't changed much since I gave my initial rankings. I think it will be Cofidis and either Wanty or Direct Energie. Between those two a lot will depend on how Terpstra gets on. He won't repeat his 2018 performances, but if he can get 1000+ points that could be enough to edge DE ahead.

    It has to be Cofidis for me.

    Bouhanni, Laporte, Touze and Hofstetter for the sprints.

    Hansen, Atapuma and Herrada for the mountains.


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    #androni Gianni Savio agrees with you:

    "I can tell you right now what the classification will be for the Pro Continental teams in 2019: first will be Cofidis, second will probably be Direct Energie, and then in third it could be Wanty, us or many other teams," Savio said. "We have a budget of €2.5 million. How can we compete with Cofidis who have €8 million at their disposal?

    To my mind, the original draft for the WorldTour reforms was better, because if you remember, the plan was that there were only going to be 15 WorldTour teams. That was fair – and not only to help the Pro Continental teams, but because I don't think there are 18 big teams out there in the first place. By big teams, I mean teams with riders who can challenge on GC in a Grand Tour."


    http://www.cyclingnews.com/features/a-balancing-act-analysing-the-giro-ditalia-wildcards/
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  • Joelsim

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    #androni Gianni Savio agrees with you:

    "I can tell you right now what the classification will be for the Pro Continental teams in 2019: first will be Cofidis, second will probably be Direct Energie, and then in third it could be Wanty, us or many other teams," Savio said. "We have a budget of €2.5 million. How can we compete with Cofidis who have €8 million at their disposal?

    To my mind, the original draft for the WorldTour reforms was better, because if you remember, the plan was that there were only going to be 15 WorldTour teams. That was fair – and not only to help the Pro Continental teams, but because I don't think there are 18 big teams out there in the first place. By big teams, I mean teams with riders who can challenge on GC in a Grand Tour."


    http://www.cyclingnews.com/features/a-balancing-act-analysing-the-giro-ditalia-wildcards/

    Clearly he knows his onions.

    :)
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    or even earlier ;). Just stumbled across this in an interview with #academy August Jensen on procycling.no:

    [...]

    And they probably also will consider to go to Langkawi and Qinghai Lake this year.

    or not

    Malaysia to not host any more events involving Israel
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  • Leadbelly

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    https://twitter.com/EyalFidel/status/1093916529152983041

    I'm not convinced this is 100% correct (where are Direct Energie?), but it's a rough idea of how the land lies at this early stage.
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  • LukasCPH

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    https://twitter.com/EyalFidel/status/1093916529152983041

    I'm not convinced this is 100% correct (where are Direct Energie?), but it's a rough idea of how the land lies at this early stage.
    This is only on points from 2019, I believe.

    Also, the WT-PCT promotion/relegation at least has been postponed until 2023:
    https://www.wielerflits.nl/nieuws/uci-stelt-promotie-degradatieregeling-uit/
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    LukasCPH

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    Also, the WT-PCT promotion/relegation at least has been postponed until 2023:
    https://www.wielerflits.nl/nieuws/uci-stelt-promotie-degradatieregeling-uit/
    Picking something from that article to comment on:
    It says there could be 19 or even 20 WorldTour teams if a ProConti team (or two) that's placed in the top-18 decides to apply while the existing WorldTour teams' three-year licences are still running (e.g. after one year).

    What if the same happens the year after that?! There are 20 WT teams already - what if another two PCTs make the top-18 in the second year and also apply for a WT licence? The original 18 WT teams still have one year left on their licence, and the two new teams may also have finished in the top-18, so you can't take theirs away. Will there then be 22 WT teams?!
    :slow

    This all sounds not terribly well thought out. :S
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  • LukasCPH

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    If it weren't before, it's official now: #academy are going for the auto-wildcards

    https://www.nieuwsblad.be/cnt/dmf20190214_04175773

    "We are permanently on the road with three teams to get enough points for that top 2 spot in the ranking that enables us to ride all 3 GTs in 2020."
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  • Joelsim

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    If it weren't before, it's official now: #academy are going for the auto-wildcards

    https://www.nieuwsblad.be/cnt/dmf20190214_04175773

    "We are permanently on the road with three teams to get enough points for that top 2 spot in the ranking that enables us to ride all 3 GTs in 2020."

    Makes sense. And with that more money will come in and more points for the following year.
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  • LukasCPH

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    Makes sense. And with that more money will come in and more points for the following year.
    More money, certainly. And let's not forget that they'd get auto-invited to all other WT races, too, not just the GTs.

    More points? I'm not so sure about that. It's not out of the question, but history has shown that domination of Continental races doesn't necessarily translate to taking the same number of points at a higher level.
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  • Leadbelly

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    So naturally there still isn't an easy way to see how the teams are doing in this competition. The UCI have their World Ranking for teams, but it's on a rolling basis and at this time of the year it's relevance is limited.

    Here it is anyway:



    One thing we can do however is to compare these points with what they were at the beginning on January. This should show how well the riders and teams are defending or bettering their results.

    Current Rank Team January Score April Score Change
    1 Wanty 4516 4996 +480
    2 Cofidis 5263 4797 -466
    3 Direct Energie 5155 4173 -982
    4 Israel Cycling Academy 3326 3311 -15
    5 Vital Concept 2768 2854 +86
    6 Roompot-Charles 2814 2803 -11
    7 Corendon-Circus 2745 2751 +6
    8 Androni Giocattoli 2753 2725 -28

    Direct Energie the big losers at the moment. That's not the fault of Terpstra particularly, though that could change as he has very big points to defend these upcoming two weekends. The point loss is spread about, but Hivert sticks out. He had a great start to 2018, but couldn't replicate it this year.

    Things are looking good for Wanty. Martin is responsible for a lot of those point gains.

    Strange that Androni are 28 points down. I thought they'd had a good start to the season.
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  • Leadbelly

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    An update for the beginning of May. There's still no official confirmation that this is happening of course.

    Current Rank Team January Score April Score May Score Change
    1 Cofidis 5263 4797 5003 +206
    2 Wanty 4516 4996 4721 -275
    3 Total 5155 4173 4195 +22
    4 Corendon-Circus 2745 2751 3979 +1228
    5 Israel Cycling Academy 3326 3311 3852 +541
    6 Androni Giocattoli 2753 2725 3398 +673
    7 Vital Concept 2768 2854 3372 +518
    8 Wallonie Bruxelles 2757 2569 3245 +676

    Wanty starting to struggle a bit now. Martin gave them a great start to the season, but the classics have been a bit of a letdown for them. They have lots of points to defend towards the end of season.

    I was sure Total were going to lose a huge amount after Terpstra crashed out of RVV, but they've managed to turn a small profit on the month. There was a great 2nd for Turgis at DDV and then various bits and bobs from smaller .1 races.

    Massive gains for the teams further down. Having MVDP helped one team and the others had some good results combined with not having many points to defend from the corresponding races last year.
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  • Leadbelly

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    One month later and we can't be far off halfway through the season.

    Current Rank Team January Score May Score June Score Change
    1 Cofidis 5263 5003 4596 -407
    2 Total 5155 4195 4354 +159
    3 Wanty 4516 4721 4336 -385
    4 Israel Cycling Academy 3326 3852 3895 +43
    5 Corendon-Circus 2745 3979 3720 -259
    6 Androni Giocattoli 2753 3398 3623 +225
    8 Wallonie Bruxelles 2757 3245 3351 +106
    7 Vital Concept 2768 3372 3281 -91

    The consensus at the moment seems to be that with the promotion of Cofidis to WT (top of cumulative 3 year table) and the UCI fudge of Dimension Data being relegated, but still guaranteed all WT invites will mean that number of auto-wildcards will be reduced by one ie. just the one for Grand Tours and two for everything else.

    Taking into account all the points that Wanty have to defend later in the year, things look good for Total to grab the sole Golden Ticket. That second spot is very much up in the air though.

    Corendon could score nothing the next couple of months, but what odds MVDP comes back and wins BinckBank, the Worlds and a couple of other small races to grab second from under the noses of the bigger teams?
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  • Leadbelly

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    The rumour mill has both Cofidis and Total becoming WT next year. If true that would mean this competition would become solely about the next best finisher after excluding those two, and the wildcard invite to everything except the GTs. However since I'm not sure how Total are achieving their promotion, that part of the rumour may remain unsubstantiated.

    Current Rank Team January Score June Score July Score Change
    1 Cofidis 5263 4596 5040 +444
    2 Wanty 4516 4336 4596 +260
    3 Total 5155 4354 4556 +202
    4 Corendon-Circus 2745 3720 3924 +204
    5 Israel Cycling Academy 3326 3895 3815 -80
    6 Androni Giocattoli 2753 3623 3656 +33
    7 Wallonie Bruxelles 2757 3351 3543 +192

    Herrada with big gains for Cofidis. Most of the other teams can be pleased with their month's effort as well. Pasqualon is finally showing some signs of life for Wanty. De Bondt and Merlier picking up some impressive points in MVDP's absence.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Just two months and a bit left for the competition.

    Current Rank Team January Score July Score August Score Change
    1 Cofidis 5263 5040 5119 +79
    2 Wanty 4516 4596 4700 +104
    3 Total 5155 4556 4613 +57
    4 Corendon-Circus 2745 3924 3924 0
    5 Androni Giocattoli 2753 3656 3879 +223
    6 Israel Cycling Academy 3326 3815 3802 -13
    7 Wallonie Bruxelles 2757 3543 3413 -130

    Munoz and Rivera providing a large boost to Androni. Vliegen's win in Wallonie came just a bit too late to feature in this month's update, but those points could be vital as they are the team in the top-three with the most points to defend in the run-in.
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  • Armchair Cyclist

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    I can't remember now where I read it, but some publication was making the point that essentially the race to qualify for the big events rewards the PC teams for omitting their best riders from those events.

    The point being made was that getting a wild card for the Tour commits 8 riders to 21 race days, and in effect at least 5 weeks out of their schedule, during which they have precious little chance of getting any UCI points that will contribute towards them appearing in it next year.  The GP Cerami and tours of Austria and Wallonie are more likely to yield points to these teams than the grand boucle, so common sense would determine that that is where they shoudl send  their better riders.  It would certainly seem that Wanty's chances of making the 2020 Tour was strengthened by omitting  gained by leaving Vliegen and Dupont from their team for the 2019 edition.
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  • Leadbelly

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    I think Dupont might have had an injury/niggle and that's why he wasn't at the Tour, and tbh you can understand them wanting to have some of their better riders at Wallonie - it is their home race after all.

    On the other hand Van Melsen was a strange selection for the Tour, but ASO declared afterwards that they were more than happy with Wanty and their showing as a wildcard team. Martin and Meurisse even picked up a decent haul of UCI points. The duo would probably confirm however that they were not easy ones.

    The only team that has entertained this thought to my knowledge is ICA and that was solely for the Giro, where they didn't send Hermans (California was his intended destination, but he got injured) or TVA (easier points in Norway that didn't materialize).
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  • Leadbelly

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    A month and a half-ish left for the competition.

    Current Rank Team January Score August Score September Score Change
    1 Total 5155 4613 4788 +175
    2 Cofidis 5263 5119 4762 -357
    3 Wanty 4516 4700 4576 -124
    4 Israel Cycling Academy 3326 3802 3976 +174
    5 Corendon-Circus 2745 3924 3903 -21
    6 Androni Giocattoli 2753 3879 3823 -56

    Strange that there is such a drop in the score of Cofidis. I don't see a massive difference between their August results in 2018 and 2019.

    Ignoring this competition for a bit and looking at the 3-year collective scores ones, things were looking a bit ropey for Cofidis in it a couple of weeks ago as Wanty were closing the gap, but Laporte's and Hofstetter's recent points have built up that cushion again.

    If Wanty did finish ahead of them (in 18th), that would mean no WT for Cofidis, and as you can see the auto-GT wildcard spots are far from decided. Mind you their continuing sponsorship of the Vuelta would probably get them an auto-wildcard of a different sort if they did miss out for whatever reason.
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  • Leadbelly

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    A quick mid-month update.



    Remember that these are the rolling points and include some results from the end of last year.

    There is definitely a case to be made that Katusha, CCC and Dimension Data should all be relegated.

    From the PCT teams, Total and Wanty have the most points to defend from last year, so the real gap between them and ICA/Corendon is much smaller. Remember if you win the Worlds you get 600 points. If MVDP wins that then other teams will really be scrabbling around for points. Could be an exciting finish to the season.
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  • Leadbelly

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    I might as well do an update per week now until the competition is over.



    A UCI error has Corendon on over 6000 points, but it's actually only 4031. So even if MVDP wins on Sunday the team will still need other points from elsewhere in the remainder of the season to upset the apple cart.
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  • LukasCPH

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    A UCI error has Corendon on over 6000 points, but it's actually only 4031.
    Not as if any of this is important or anything ... :fp :S :fp
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  • Leadbelly

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    So we still to wait for official confirmation about the ICA/Katusha merger and about Cofidis doing enough in the aggregated 3-year scores, but it looks like the WT will consist of 19 teams next year.

    What this should mean for the competition is that there is now only 1 auto-wildcard for all WT events next year and not two.
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  • Leadbelly

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    It was looking so good for MVDP and Corendon, but it was not to be.

    Even with De Bondt's points this week, their chances of winning this competition have now gone. Not that they'll mind one iota and their star rider is an auto-wildcard is his own way. Next year he's focusing on the Olympics, but if in 2021 he fancies riding the Tour, then I'm sure ASO will find a way to get his team there.

    Assuming the ICA/Katusha merger goes ahead (should hear tomorrow or Tuesday) and Cofidis get promoted (mid-November for some reason), then that only leaves Total vs Wanty for the main prize.

    Some important points today from Turgis to leave Total with a bit of a buffer, but they may need this as Wanty have 12 races left and the French team only have 9.
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  • Leadbelly

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    https://twitter.com/WielerFlits/status/1181093132840181760

    Last week I was talking about how it was over for Corendon, but I didn't take into account more UCI cock-ups. Tim Merlier's points are missing from their overall tally!



    Add in his 607 points (and take away Rickaert's 29) and they're actually now on 4611. Factor in the good results that Wanty got at the end of last year and they're neck and neck. The Belgian team are still favourites as they have more opportunities (Taihu and Guangxi) than their opponent to score points, but a couple of Corendon wins in their remaining three races could be enough to grab second.
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  • Leadbelly

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    https://twitter.com/WielerFlits/status/1183425909778460672

    Corendon put in a great performance yesterday and according to De Bondt, it was all about scoring as many points as possible. It's not going to be enough though.



    The rolling scores have pretty much now caught up with the actual 2019 points and therefore it's a lot easier to see how things stand.

    Since these points were calculated last night, they don't include any points from Taihu (stage or GC). Brandle and Raim picked up quite a few for ICA there and Vallee also grabbed a decent amount for Wanty. His points should be enough to see Wanty re-overtake Corendon.

    Taking those points into account, Total should have a lead of ~180 over Wanty heading into the final two races. Both them and Wanty are racing Guangxi, but only Total (for the moment) are at Chrono des Nations. You could imagine Terpstra picking up some more points there.

    Therefore to stand a chance of winning the competition, I think Wanty will need to podium Guangxi and maybe even have another top-ten in addition to that, to stand a chance of overhauling Total (and that's assuming the French team don't score many themselves).
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  • Leadbelly

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    Needless to say I didn't realise that there is one more stage of Taihu to go. There could be some point shuffling if Raim or Vallee picked up some more bonifications.
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