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Stage 10: Jurançon › Pau (ITT)
« on: September 02, 2019, 07:54 »
Stage 10: Jurançon › Pau (ITT)

September 3rd

For the first time in the history of the Spanish stage race, the French city of Pau decided to welcome the Vuelta for a day of racing in the département Pyrénées-Atlantiques. And same as in this year's Tour de France, the city will host a hilly individual time trial:



As usual, it's way more "hilly" than what it actually looks like on the official profile:





La-flamme-rouge lists the stage with 525m of climbing over those 36k, which means that it's significantly harder than in the past couple of years. In terms of climbing per km it actually equals the one in this year's Tour (both ~14,5m), so we may take it as an indication, although the Vuelta one is significantly longer:



Juan Manuel Garate said that it would be perfect for #ef Rigoberto Uran, who won a similar time trial in the Giro a couple of years back - but well... this won't happen again any time soon. And with #jumbo Roglic around, it would probably have been a race for 2nd anyway.

In both Grand Tours Roglic did for GC so far, his time trials were way below par though, so there may be some hope for the competition. In the 2018 Tour he finishes 8th only:



and in the Giro this year he came 10th:



So after a hard race, he seems to struggle to unleash his full time trialing abilities. This time, the time trial comes relatively early though, and after a rest day, so that may play into his hands. If not, guys #ccc Patrick Bevin, #movistar Nelson Oliveira, #ineos Vasil Kiryienka, #lotto Thomas de Gendt or #groupama Tobias Ludvigsson are good candidates to take the stage win instead. Or even #movistar Alejandro Valverde?!
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    Re: Stage 10: Jurançon › Pau (ITT)
    « Reply #1 on: September 02, 2019, 08:24 »
    here is the ~pdf start list for the day btw. I was inclined to add #uae Fabio Aru to the list of favorites, but I fear those kind of miracles only happen in Italy ;)

    # TIME TEAM NAME GC GAP
    7      13:47:00      #jumbo      MARTIN Tony       
                            
    16      13:56:00      #ineos      KIRYIENKA Vasil       
                            
    27      14:07:00      #ccc      *BARTA William       
                            
    57      14:37:00      #groupama      *THOMAS Benjamin       
                            
    66      14:46:00      #ag2r      DILLIER Silvan       
                            
    71      14:51:00      #dimension      HAGEN Edvald Boasson       
                            
    80      15:00:00      #sunweb      ARNDT Nikias       
                            
    93      15:13:00      #groupama      LUDVIGSSON Tobias       
                            
    102      15:22:00      #ccc      BEVIN Patrick       
                            
    104      15:24:00      #movistar      OLIVEIRA Nelson       
                            
    107      15:27:00      #lotto      DE GENDT Thomas       
                            
    124      15:44:00      #ineos      POELS Wout       
                            
    129      15:49:00      #astana      SANCHEZ Luis Leon       
                            
    145      16:05:00      #ef      *MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe       
                            
    147      16:07:00      #movistar      SOLER Marc       + 00h 12' 57''
    148      16:09:00      #katusha      *GUERREIRO Ruben       + 00h 12' 29''
    149      16:11:00      #astana      FUGLSANG Jakob       + 00h 12' 21''
    150      16:13:00      #murias      *RODRIGUEZ GARAICOECHEA Oscar       + 00h 10' 17''
    151      16:15:00      #astana      IZAGUIRRE INSAUSTI Ion       + 00h 10' 03''
    152      16:17:00      #jumbo      BENNETT George       + 00h 07' 07''
    153      16:19:00      #mitchelton      CHAVES RUBIO Jhoan Esteban       + 00h 06' 51''
    154      16:21:00      #ef      *HIGUITA GARCIA Sergio Andres       + 00h 06' 41''
    155      16:23:00      #bahrain      PERNSTEINER Hermann       + 00h 06' 23''
    156      16:25:00      #mitchelton      NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel       + 00h 05' 19''
    157      16:27:00      #bahrain      TEUNS Dylan       + 00h 04' 46''
    158      16:29:00      #sunweb      KELDERMAN Wilco       + 00h 03' 53''
    159      16:31:00      #bora      MAJKA Rafal       + 00h 03' 22''
    160      16:33:00      #cofidis      EDET Nicolas       + 00h 02' 21''
    161      16:35:00      #lotto      HAGEN Carl Fredrik       + 00h 01' 46''
    162      16:37:00      #uae      *POGAČAR Tadej       + 00h 01' 42''
    163      16:39:00      #movistar      VALVERDE Alejandro       + 00h 00' 20''
    164      16:41:00      #astana      *LOPEZ MORENO Miguel Angel       + 00h 00' 17''
    165      16:43:00      #jumbo      ROGLIČ Primož       + 00h 00' 06''
    166      16:45:00      #movistar      QUINTANA Nairo    

    The early weather forecast indicates that it should be a sunny day, but the wind could be a factor, as it's more or less steadily decreasing over the day:



    On such a twisty course, it's hard to say if that could be an advantage for any early- or late starters though. And at least for all the GC contenders it should be more or less the same, I guess
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: Stage 10: Jurançon › Pau (ITT)
    « Reply #2 on: September 02, 2019, 09:59 »
    Stage 10: Jurançon › Pau (ITT)
    When they have two GTs, in the same year, visit the same city for a time trial stage, why don't they just use the same course? :P

    Would have been interesting to compare times etc.
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    Re: Stage 10: Jurançon › Pau (ITT)
    « Reply #3 on: September 02, 2019, 14:15 »
    I'm curious about Pogačar. He won the Slovenian National TT (without having to compete against Roglič) but I'm still trying to dig up a profile of what that 44km course was like.

    Interesting quote from his DS earlier in the year:

    Quote
    Although some would like to see what he could do at a Grand Tour, the team's director, Neil Stephens, told Cyclingnews at the Tour of California that Pogačar won't be racing Grand Tours until 2021.

    "We knew he could do the performances that he's accomplished," Stephens said. "It has surprised us, though, that he's accomplishing so much, so soon. We always knew he could, but maybe in a year or two.
     :P

    So I wonder if the plan is to pull him out of the Vuelta early? If so, he could really aim for the iTT without having to worry about saving himself for much beyond that. Unless they've changed their ambitions and are willing to see if he can make it to Madrid with a good GC positioning?

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    Re: Stage 10: Jurançon › Pau (ITT)
    « Reply #4 on: September 02, 2019, 14:34 »
    So I wonder if the plan is to pull him out of the Vuelta early? If so, he could really aim for the iTT without having to worry about saving himself for much beyond that. Unless they've changed their ambitions and are willing to see if he can make it to Madrid with a good GC positioning?

    yes, the initial plan was changed a while ago. In Slovenian media it said:

    Quote
    After his formidable form in the spring, his employers changed their mind, and Pogacar, who will be accompanied by Slovenian coach Andrej Hauptman as one of the UAE's sports directors, is also not afraid to "burn out" in Spain.

    “Although racing in the heat is not perfect for me, the steep slopes of Spain fit me. After a break from racing, I only did San Sebastian, where I didn't have the best day, but I'm not worried. An intense preparations lies behind me, with the main part of it taking place in Planica, where I also stayed in the altitude room [tent?!]. I do not know if my shape is comparable to the one that led me to victory in California, but judging from my last training sessions, I will be well prepared, ”said the optimistic young racer, who turns 21 on 21st of September.

    [...]

    And where does Pogacar see himself in three-week races in a couple of years? “I always like to race full out, but this year I will be pleased to learn from my more experienced colleagues. For the future, however, the desire is a fight for the top places in the ranking. In this Vuelta I would like to see how I will survive the third week, which is still unknown to me. Last year, I was stellar on Avenir from the first to the last day, everyone else had at least one bad day, which gave me an edge over rivals, "Pogacar hopes that even at the highest level, his remarkable ability to regenerate will come to the fore.

    https://www.delo.si/sport/kolesarstvo/ucno-leto-sampiona-tadeja-pogacarja-219194.html

    His couch Hauptman said:

    Quote
    "In the sprint stages we bet on Fernando Gavirio, and for the overall ranking, we will ride for Fabio Aru. With Pogacar we just want to see how it goes. He is only 20 years old, it will be a new experience for him, so he will race without the pressure of getting results, of which he has shown a lot in his first season among the pros already. Of course, no one will stop him if he feels well. He did very well in the training sessions we did together. He will have free hands."

    https://www.delo.si/sport/kolesarstvo/roglic-sodi-v-vrh-pogacarja-pa-ne-bodo-zavirali-218885.html

    So #uae UAE didn't really plan for him to go for GC (at least that's what they communicated), but from what Pogacar says, the idea was always to stay around for the whole three weeks, and I doubt he will just let go now. It would still be no surprise to see him struggling in week three, I guess.
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