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Leadbelly

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The 2021 Auto-Wildcard Race
« on: March 05, 2020, 12:01 »
It's the same deal as last year, but this time round we know in advance how it should work.

As long as no WT team disappears at the end of the season then there is only one golden ticket to all WT events and one silver ticket for all 1-day WT races.

Handily the UCI no longer do the rolling points score, but have the actual year's tally. It makes it a lot easier.

PCT Ranking as of the start of this week:

 #arkea 1319
-----------------------------
 #cwg 639
-----------------------------
 #nippo 568
 #androni 534
 #total 467
 #vlaanderen 454
 #vinizabu 369
 #fundacion 337
 #bbhotels 292
 #cajarural 268
 #alpecin 215

With Cofidis and I-SUN both moving up last year, my thoughts beforehand were that it was going to be a three or four horse race, but who knows. Total and Alpecin especially are off to bad starts while others are doing a lot better than expected.

There is also the three-year ranking to determine the WT teams from 2023 onwards, but there's not much point looking too closely at this yet. However if ended today, both Jumbo and I-SUN would lose their spots.
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  • « Last Edit: October 08, 2020, 20:45 by Leadbelly »

    Leadbelly

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    Re: The 2021 Auto-Wildcard Race
    « Reply #1 on: July 08, 2020, 15:05 »
    Hopefully we'll get some racing soon, so I might as well update this to reflect the handful of points that were scored between the last post and lockdown starting.

     #arkea 1704
    ------------------------
     #cwg 990
    ------------------------
     #nippo 638
     #total 550
     #androni 534
     #vlaanderen 463
     #bbhotels 370
     #vinizabu 369
     #fundacion 337
     #cajarural 268
     #alpecin 250
     #wallonie 179

    I say a handful, but both Arkea and Circus scored a fair whack.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: The 2021 Auto-Wildcard Race
    « Reply #2 on: August 22, 2020, 20:42 »
    Pre-TdF is a good point to update this. I guess I could have waited until after the national championships, but I might not have time then.

     #arkea 2108
     #cwg 1193
    ------------------------
     #alpecin 1151
    ------------------------
     #androni 854
     #nippo 772
     #total 631
     #vinizabu 558
     #bbhotels 531
     #vlaanderen 484
     #cajarural 364
     #fundacion 351
     #wallonie 263

    The future looks bleak for CCC and therefore I've changed the number of qualifying spots to unofficially reflect this.

    The big mover is of course Alpecin and that's despite MVDP not exactly living up the billing (so far). One race in particular was instrumental in this rise - Dwars door het Hageland where they picked up over 400 points.

    Circus will need a great Autumn if they are to hold onto that coveted second place.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: The 2021 Auto-Wildcard Race
    « Reply #3 on: September 21, 2020, 09:01 »
    It should be an interesting update when it comes out later today (hopefully) and similarly to 2019 we might get a situation were literally every last race counts in the battle for the auto-wildcards. Will all three turn up at the Giro di Sardegna?
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: The 2021 Auto-Wildcard Race
    « Reply #4 on: September 21, 2020, 10:03 »
    Just checking and I see FirstCycling do a UCI ranking and it looks to be updated to include the Tour etc. It's probably got more chance to be correct than the official one tbh.

     #arkea 2857
     #alpecin 2540
    ------------------------
     #cwg 2304
    ------------------------
     #nippo 1367
     #unox 1131
     #androni 969
     #bbhotels 927
     #vlaanderen 887
     #vinizabu 866
     #total 785
     #wallonie 633
     #riwal 612

    Big point gains for some teams since our last update.

    Arkea will be disappointed with how their TdF went. A top-5 for Nairo-man and they could have booked their spots in the Tour next year. Bouhanni snaggled a win yesterday and him along with Barguil are their best chance of some more points in the rest of the year. Their lack of a big name for the cobbles could be their undoing.

    Coming up fast behind them are Alpecin. If MVDP on his own has a decent classics season by his standards then it's difficult to see his team not being in the top-two. Add in his team mates and they're probably the favourites for the top spot.

    Circus aren't out of it by any means. They've had a very good last week picking up lots of points all over the shop, but the 500+ points to Arkea is a lot to make up.

    Elsewhere Nippo are the best of the rest, Uno-X are on a charge and B&B had a good tour and were unlucky not to pick up more points.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: The 2021 Auto-Wildcard Race
    « Reply #5 on: September 30, 2020, 20:04 »
    Big points today for Arkea. Couple that with yesterday's shock Circus news and the pressure is starting to build on MVDP to deliver at BinckBank and on the cobbles later in October.

    Update on Monday.
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: The 2021 Auto-Wildcard Race
    « Reply #6 on: September 30, 2020, 20:39 »
    Big points today for Arkea. Couple that with yesterday's shock Circus news and the pressure is starting to build on MVDP to deliver at BinckBank and on the cobbles later in October.

    Update on Monday.
    With #circus out of the running for auto-wildcards (since they'll have a WT licence), isn't there now a massive gap (>1000 points) between #arkea #alpecin at the front and #delko #unox etc. behind?
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    Leadbelly

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    Re: The 2021 Auto-Wildcard Race
    « Reply #7 on: September 30, 2020, 20:45 »
    It will depend on what happens with NTT.

    If they continue in some form then there will be 19 WT teams and only 1 auto-wildcard.

    If they vanish and there are again only 18 teams, then of course neither Arkea or Alpecin have anything to worry about.
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: The 2021 Auto-Wildcard Race
    « Reply #8 on: October 01, 2020, 09:42 »
    If they continue in some form then there will be 19 WT teams and only 1 auto-wildcard.
    Ah yes, I forgot about the 19 WT teams.
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  • mudplugger

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    Re: The 2021 Auto-Wildcard Race
    « Reply #9 on: October 01, 2020, 17:06 »
    If Alpecin have an aim to finish top 2nd Div team, which I understand they do, then I am struggling with their approach. Circus 51 races to date,  Arkea 46, yet Alpecin only 33!
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: The 2021 Auto-Wildcard Race
    « Reply #10 on: October 06, 2020, 20:15 »
    Kaboom!

     #alpecin 3492
    -------------------------
     #arkea 3419
    -------------------------
     #cwg 2625 (but no longer part of this competition)
     #nippo 1438
     #unox 1198
     #bbhotels 1032

    It was bound to happen. Despite Barguil's best efforts at FW and LBL, MVDP has dragged Alpecin ahead of Arkea and we haven't even reached the cobbled classics yet.

    As pointed out a few posts back, a lot now will hinge on what happens with NTT. At the moment things look bleak for them and if they disappear then there will be two auto-wildcards for all WT events and Arkea can rest easy. However we all thought CCC was gonna go down the plughole, but lo and behold, Circus threw their hat (and money) into the ring. Could the same happen with NTT? Either by another PCT team or some random wealthy guy? Spending a few million and getting invites to all the big races sounds tempting.

    That's the thought that will keep Arkea awake at night.

    Cause we don't know what is happening with Quintana and co after the TDF raid, and will ASO look favourably on the team and give them a normal wildcard if the Colombian is guilty of something or other?
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: The 2021 Auto-Wildcard Race
    « Reply #11 on: October 06, 2020, 20:22 »
    Could the same happen with NTT? Either by another PCT team or some random wealthy guy? Spending a few million and getting invites to all the big races sounds tempting.

    That's the thought that will keep Arkea awake at night.
    Maybe Arkea could be that PCT team themselves?
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: The 2021 Auto-Wildcard Race
    « Reply #12 on: October 07, 2020, 21:03 »
    Maybe Arkea could be that PCT team themselves?

    They could do.

    What does play in their favour is a couple of things.

    Firstly there isn't much time for anybody to get stuff sorted. Isn't there usually a deadline of sorts in October for teams to have paperwork/money etc sorted for the next year? Secondly it's difficult to see which team could buy out NTT. In theory Rally and Uno-X might have the financial muscle, but even though Rally were linked with CCC, neither team to me seems to be the hasty sort that would jump into this. They each have other long term plans which they'll probably stick to.

    Gazprom could be a likelier name, but it's a very weak squad currently. However if they managed to keep Nizzolo as part of the team, added Zakarin and a few spare Italians it could be a decent enough first XI.
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: The 2021 Auto-Wildcard Race
    « Reply #13 on: October 07, 2020, 21:58 »
    Firstly there isn't much time for anybody to get stuff sorted. Isn't there usually a deadline of sorts in October for teams to have paperwork/money etc sorted for the next year?
    Yes.
    There are some less important deadlines (1 August for some bank guarantee paperwork, 1 September for a first instalment of the registration fee) - 1 October for the final bank guarantee, the team budget, and at least 10 rider contracts. By 20 October, you have to have 15 riders on contract, and at least 27 by 1 December.

    It is possible that the UCI may soften those requirements this year ... but I wouldn't count on it.
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