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Mellow Velo

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
« Reply #60 on: March 15, 2020, 20:42 »
Italy awful, Switzerland too.

 Yet the Balkans seem relatively unaffected.
I find this odd, given Switzerland and the proximity of Italy to both.
Hungary and Poland, too.

Looks like there is some evidence to support the theory that the virus doesn't do well in heat, but even there we find anomalies.
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  • "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.

    Joelsim

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    Echoes

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #62 on: March 16, 2020, 01:20 »
    Yet the Balkans seem relatively unaffected.
    I find this odd, given Switzerland and the proximity of Italy to both.

    Looks like there is some evidence to support the theory that the virus doesn't do well in heat, but even there we find anomalies.

    Switzerland has a non mountainous border with Lombardy. Ticino is one of the most infected cantons (at least on 14 March!), along with the Vaud and Basel but Basel is close to Alsace, one of the most infected region in France. So I think there's some logic there.

    I discussed with a colleague about the heat factor. He wasn't too sure about it. He gave me Singapore as a counter-example but if you look at the figures from Singapore, you'd see that it's not that high and there's high recovery rate (212 infected cases, no dead, 105 healed) and I guess Singapore as a major port and crossroad is "importing" a lot of cases.

    What could work against that theory to me is the situation in the US. California, Florida and Louisiana are among the most infected states but then again you also have Washington, New York, Massachusetts, Illinois, Colorado. At the end of the day, Northern states are still more infected than the Southern ones. What do you think?

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/03/health/us-coronavirus-cases-state-by-state/index.html
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  • "Paris-Roubaix is the biggest cycling race in the world, bigger than the Tour de France, bigger than any other bike race" (Sir Bradley Wiggins)

    Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #63 on: March 16, 2020, 03:02 »
    Things are turning weirder and darker here...and fast.

    The CDC is recommending suspending gatherings of 50 or more people for the next 8 weeks.

    California, Ohio, Illinois, Massachussetts and Washington state all closing restaurants and bars, likely for 30 days at least. I'm certain other states will soon follow.

    Five counties in Pennsylvania ordered to do the same by the state's governor.

    New York City, New York friggin' City!, ordering all nightclubs, theaters and concert venues to close by Tuesday morning. Restaurants will be restricted to takeout and delivery only. Los Angeles implementing a similar strategy.

    New Orleans, of course, has an entirely different concept when it comes to strictly limiting human interaction.
    Mayor LaToya Cantrell announced all restaurants would need to close by 9 p.m., and bars and nightclubs by midnight.
    Now that's sacrifice! :beer  :D

    Seriously, though, the economic impact of this is going to be devastating. Not to mention the decline in morale as this drags on longer. If stores are not able to adequately restock along the way, there is going to be some serious social unrest.

    I'm not even particularly freaked out, because none of this even seems real.
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  • « Last Edit: March 16, 2020, 07:14 by Drummer Boy »

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #64 on: March 16, 2020, 07:59 »
    Update from *no outback: as you may remember I had decided to hide in my family´s cabin. With few people around (as in Friday: I saw the tracks of another skier....) the risk for infection (or even spreading it if I should carry it around without noticeable symptoms) should be very low and it should be a very good if minor contributor for the ´flatten the curve´mathematics.

    However, the small communities in the Norwegian outback aren´t set up to handle large amounts of people from the city if they should fall ill and hence we were effectively sent back to the city - by a new law (!) announced this weekend  - for fear that these communities permanent inhabitants wouldn´t get their healthcare, as their services could become flooded by people from the city. (Yep this resembles an internalized anti immigration policy  :-x )

    While the reasoning makes sense to a certain degree (ie... they don´t seem to account for the time it will take for more people to become infected) by setting more people in the densely packed city area, this decision actually speeds up the infection rate in the population. Infection rate depends on number of interactions between host organisms, which is dependent on density of people, which is much higher here in the city than in the outback. 
    In my head, counterproductive measures at the national scale - even if it may help the small communities.

    Next big decsions to come concerns the economical impact of stopping the country for a long time - the ethics of it are definetly difficult: If this disease primarily kills people 80+ and people with a pre-existing condition - just how much production should you sacrifice for their survival? Keep in mind that businesses will run bankrupt, people will lose their jobs, and that will impact society, for years ahead.

    A particular concern of mine is children in low-income families if/when the parents become unemployed. It is not right to «purchase» increased survival in the 80+ age bracket at all cost, and the price tag is already high, in the very beginning of the epidemic. I am concerned that longer term societal effect of the slow-down could be worse than the epidemic itself  :(
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #65 on: March 16, 2020, 09:20 »
    Switzerland has a non mountainous border with Lombardy. Ticino is one of the most infected cantons (at least on 14 March!), along with the Vaud and Basel but Basel is close to Alsace, one of the most infected region in France. So I think there's some logic there.

    I discussed with a colleague about the heat factor. He wasn't too sure about it. He gave me Singapore as a counter-example but if you look at the figures from Singapore, you'd see that it's not that high and there's high recovery rate (212 infected cases, no dead, 105 healed) and I guess Singapore as a major port and crossroad is "importing" a lot of cases.

    What could work against that theory to me is the situation in the US. California, Florida and Louisiana are among the most infected states but then again you also have Washington, New York, Massachusetts, Illinois, Colorado. At the end of the day, Northern states are still more infected than the Southern ones. What do you think?

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/03/health/us-coronavirus-cases-state-by-state/index.html

    I read somewhere the other day that it's not just about the level of infection in hot places, it's also about the strength of coronavirus bugs like colds and flu when the temperature is higher.

    The science suggests, if I remember rightly, that at 15*C or below these types of viruses promote much more severe symptoms in their hosts (us) than they do when it's 25*C. So, the virulence gets much higher as the temperature drops, hence flu season. If you get the flu in the summer, you don't feel anywhere near as poorly.

    That may well explain places like Singapore.
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  • AG

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #66 on: March 16, 2020, 10:19 »
    Here in Aus things are starting to get a bit more serious.

    On Friday the government announced a ban on mass gatherings over 1000 people (starting from Monday though as the PM wanted to go to the footy :fp )

    A LOT of sport and community activities have been cancelled - but so far schools still open, businesses and restaurants still open and people going about their daily lives.

    The feeling is that schools will be closed - matter of when not if. 

    Supermarkets are empty - people are just plain stupid.

    Quite a few big businesses are trying to put 'work from home' plans in place - but a LOT of people will be in huge financial difficulty before this is done.  :(
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #67 on: March 16, 2020, 10:22 »
    On Friday the government announced a ban on mass gatherings over 1000 people (starting from Monday though as the PM wanted to go to the footy :fp )

    some countries in Europe are down to 5 or so, in Austria for example you are not allowed to meet with anyone who doesn't live in the same household. We are not on the same level in Germany yet (only asked to avoid all unnecessary social contacts), but it's only a matter of a couple of days, I guess.

    Where you do meet a lot of people indeed, is in the supermarkets though. I would guess that's where the virus spreads the most currently
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  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    Joelsim

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #68 on: March 16, 2020, 10:26 »
    some countries in Europe are down to 5 or so, in Austria for example you are not allowed to meet with anyone who doesn't live in the same household. We are not on the same level in Germany yet (only asked to avoid all unnecessary social contacts), but it's only a matter of a couple of days, I guess.

    Where you do meet a lot of people indeed, is in the supermarkets though. I would guess that's where the virus spreads the most currently

    Supermarket baskets and trolleys, petrol pumps, public transport, that sort of thing.
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #69 on: March 16, 2020, 12:18 »

    Where you do meet a lot of people indeed, is in the supermarkets though. I would guess that's where the virus spreads the most currently

     Having stayed away over the weekend, I have just found this out for myself, while just shopping for essentials.
    My conclusion is that the majority of folks are morons: huge numbers of individuals congregating in supermarkets to take part in the panic buying frenzy, oblivious to the fact that they are therefore in a contagion central of their own making.
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  • Echoes

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #70 on: March 16, 2020, 12:39 »
    This Monday, we've recorded a 5th deceased person in Belgium linked with the virus and 172 new cases in half a day :o (I'm not sure about this day though, perhaps it's the record from yesterday, Sunday). We've passed 1,000 infected cases, today.

    For the moment, Flanders (650 cases) are a lot more infected than Wallonia (270) and Brussels (115). Even in a ratio per million inh. 252 patients are being hospitalised, 53 of them in intensive care, 31 of them need breathing assistance and one need breathing and heart assistance.  :o

    My family town Namur is much less infected than other places in Wallonia but still the town is unusually deserted (of course the footage I saw was on Sunday but normally even on Sunday you've got cars crossing the streets. Now, people can walk in the middle of the road safely)

    Also as I expected, a lot of orders at my online food delivery company. So mostly last Saturday a lot of work for my colleagues at the call centre but also from today on a lot of work for me at the back office because since restaurant owners realise that their only solution to make business is home delivery, a lot of new ones want to partner with us. Wish me strength.  ;)

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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #71 on: March 16, 2020, 13:57 »
    I was just reading the latest article on CN about the restrictions being placed on cyclists in both Spain and Italy.

    So the fear of a cyclist crashing, and then requiring hospitalization (which would take away from the needs of others) is the primary driving force behind such limitations?

    I had assumed that originally they didn't want cyclist spreading or receiving the virus, so that's why they didn't want people out and about (which seemed a bit extreme), but is that not the case? Is this really based solely around the concern of hospitalization and other medical demands?

    If people are being prevented from even riding their bikes, then this is a level of overbearing control that I never expected to see in my lifetime, be it justified or not.

    Especially in light of everything that's going on, if I were told that I wasn't allowed to ride, I would have a very serious problem with that.
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #72 on: March 16, 2020, 16:07 »
    When you consider that Doctors are already having to choose which patients are ‘worth’ saving due to massive overcrowding, it doesn’t seem an irresponsible measure to be honest.
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #73 on: March 16, 2020, 16:10 »
    Having stayed away over the weekend, I have just found this out for myself, while just shopping for essentials.
    My conclusion is that the majority of folks are morons: huge numbers of individuals congregating in supermarkets to take part in the panic buying frenzy, oblivious to the fact that they are therefore in a contagion central of their own making.

    I suspect it’s also because they think it’s somewhat safe now and that it may not be next week.
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #74 on: March 16, 2020, 16:36 »
    When you consider that Doctors are already having to choose which patients are ‘worth’ saving due to massive overcrowding, it doesn’t seem an irresponsible measure to be honest.

     Eh? I haven't heard of anybody going around painting red crosses on doors.
     Where are the doctors having to do that?
     

    I suspect it’s also because they think it’s somewhat safe now and that it may not be next week.

     You give them way too much credit in the thinking department.
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  • « Last Edit: March 16, 2020, 17:41 by Mellow Velo »

    Joelsim

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #75 on: March 16, 2020, 18:05 »
    Italy Huw. There’s a priority list been compiled, the oldest and most infirm at the bottom. Nowhere near enough beds, staff or treatments to treat everyone currently. Sadly.

    https://www.businessinsider.com/italys-doctors-are-forced-to-prioritize-saving-the-young-2020-3
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #76 on: March 16, 2020, 18:09 »
    Italy Huw. There’s a priority list been compiled, the oldest and most infirm at the bottom. Nowhere near enough beds, staff or treatments to treat everyone currently. Sadly.

    That would be the government then.  :D
    No doubt about it: Italy's health system running about as smoothly as a 20 year old Alfa Romeo.
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #77 on: March 16, 2020, 18:50 »
    That would be the government then.  :D
    No doubt about it: Italy's health system running about as smoothly as a 20 year old Alfa Romeo.


    Alfa Romeos struggle after 3 years, I had one. Lovely car, but Jesus did it need to go to the garage every 3 months. From new too Huw.

    On a more serious note, I think we’ll be seeing more of what’s happening in Italy as healthcare services get oversubscribed.

    Just been speaking to my old man, dread to think of the implications if he gets it and faces that scenario. Just said I’ll have a lot of time on my hands as business is actually dead now for however many months, 95% of my bookings have gone now. At least I can do the supermarket runs for him if he’s put into over 70s isolation.
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #78 on: March 16, 2020, 19:05 »


    Ain't going to happen.

    But... :slow

    Olympic supremo Coates in isolation but says Games will go on


    Australian Olympic Committee president John Coates will spend the next fortnight in quarantine after flying in from Europe, but maintains Tokyo 2020 will go ahead and has revealed there is no May deadline to decide whether to cancel the Games or not as senior International Olympic Committee member Dick Pound suggested last month.


    Quote
    But while much of world sport has ground to a half in an effort to combat the coronavirus pandemic, Olympic officials insist the Games will start on July 24. Speaking from Switzerland, Coates told The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age that Tokyo organisers would not have to decide whether or not to stage the Olympics by May, as had been widely accepted since Pound raised the issue of a deadline last month.

    “The IOC didn’t recognise any dates that Dick came up with and I think Dick backed off that as well. It’s all proceeding to start on the 24th of July,” Coates said.

    Can this be real? :S

    This is all about money. They're not going to let this slip through their grasp if they can at all help it.
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #79 on: March 16, 2020, 19:14 »
    The Olympics won’t happen, clearly. Head in the sand stubbornness.
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  • Servais Knavendish

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #80 on: March 16, 2020, 19:53 »
    yes agree - but why the dithering - its already clear that can't go ahead; so why not call it now and then give everyone more time to organize the 2021 or 2022 games; or give Tokyo 2024 and punt LA 4 years later.  Other events /expos / shows etc have stalled their own cancellation pending government instruction re insurance etc; but this is independent of all that.
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #81 on: March 16, 2020, 20:51 »
    yes agree - but why the dithering - its already clear that can't go ahead; so why not call it now and then give everyone more time to organize the 2021 or 2022 games; or give Tokyo 2024 and punt LA 4 years later.  Other events /expos / shows etc have stalled their own cancellation pending government instruction re insurance etc; but this is independent of all that.

     The only option there is 2021 then 3 years before the next.
    4 years is a non starter. Imagine if London 2012 had to wait until 2016.
    Get this wrong and there may never be another Olympics.
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #82 on: March 16, 2020, 22:19 »
    The only option there is 2021 then 3 years before the next.

    2022 could actually be an option, with the World Cup scheduled to take place during the Winter that year.
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  • ciranda

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #83 on: March 17, 2020, 01:30 »
    Italy
    Reports are scary and has been for more than two weeks and there's no sign of letting up. In some hospitals fifty, seventy people turn up a day with heavy symptoms who will then be asked to go home because there are no ressources for treatment. The personal stories that you can read are heartbreaking, the dying in isolation, the newspaper with ten pages of obituaries.

    Old people who get this will die. The italian health care sector is rated second best in the world and better than the danish by some distance. I don't see how it will not be at least as bad here in three weeks although the lockdown will maybe buy time and with other lessons learned maybe make it less severe. In countries that have acted later or more undecisively like Sweden and Belgium it could be worse.
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  • « Last Edit: March 17, 2020, 01:43 by ciranda »

    AG

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #84 on: March 17, 2020, 02:05 »
    and that is the biggest problem.  The mortality rate should be less than 1% ... but if the health system is overwhelmed, and people cant be treated - that is when the death rate goes way up.

    Italy scares me.  I have family in Lombardy, and it is really frightening what is happening there.

    There are only so many intensive care beds available, so many respirators and limited staff to work ... once these are bursting, things are going to get very hard, very quickly.

    However - there is significant hope that some of the isolation measures being taken in many countries last week and this week start to kick in and we level off the spiralling cases, and keep the situation where the various health care systems can manage. 
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #85 on: March 17, 2020, 02:13 »
    The Italian health care sector is rated second best in the world
    Interesting, as this very much contradicts much of the noise I've read online. Is this generally accepted as true?


    Quote
    I don't see how it will not be at least as bad here in three weeks

    Where is "here"?
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #86 on: March 17, 2020, 02:23 »
    Things are getting a bit more concerning by the day. I try not to use the term "scary" because I'm still having a hard time wrapping my head around the reality of all this.

    I'm just getting reports of two U.S. ER doctors who are in critical condition from the virus, and one of them is only in his 40s.

    I'm having to tune out much more than I'm tuning in, but as a result I feel that I'm losing some perspective. The signal to noise ratio is increasing daily, and it doesn't seem to be helping things. I'm in a situation where I really don't have to interact with the outside world too much if need be, with the exception of a few instances which could prove to be problematic (sorry if I'm being too vague, but that's all I really care to share at this point).

    Both my parents are quite old, and would seem to be prime targets for the worst of this. They've tended to outlive most of their friends, and have a knack at defying the odds. Only time will tell, however.

    I'm not losing sleep over any of this, though, because it truly feels surreal.

    On the lighter side:

    https://twitter.com/rouleur/status/1239537082219089925
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  • « Last Edit: March 17, 2020, 02:34 by Drummer Boy »

    Kiwirider

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #87 on: March 17, 2020, 03:15 »


    So the fear of a cyclist crashing, and then requiring hospitalization (which would take away from the needs of others) is the primary driving force behind such limitations?

    I was talking to a couple of medical people (wont say their roles in the system), a policy maker and an epidemiologist over the past few days. (I know ... a really weird circle - but some really interesting conversations!!)

    Long and short of what I took from those conversations was:
    - the policy approach is not consistent with stopping the impact of disease in vulnerable populations - otherwise we'd see older people locked away and the rest of the populace left to function as normal. (Yes, I know that's a simplistic description ... but you get the point ...)
    - given the fact that the disease has a combination of a high incidence of asymptomatic infection, a high incidence of minor symptomology and a very high comorbidity with pre-existing chronic health or respiratory conditions, teh actual risk factor is low ... certainly much lower than would be expected for a policy response such as this
    - the lack of splitting the population into cohorts when assessing everything from infection to morbidity sets off alarm bells in a good number of those I talked to
    - the "expert commentary" caused much concern - with some people even saying that it was more about attracting funding than offering true advice ...
    - aside from the age and comorbidity factors, the worst impacted areas are characterised by high levels of air pollution and high population density - both of which are factors that place significant demand on the medical system

    To a person, they told me that the policy response is less about individual health and more about fear of overloading the respective medical systems. A couple of them even pointed me to the ratio of chronic care and emergency care beds to the populations that they serve ... and those numbers weren't pretty (in Canada at least) ...

    (DB - I read somewhere that you folks only have a total of about 900k beds nationally that could be used for covid - and any other similar widespread chronic disease treatment - such as the flu ...)

    Cynically, I interpret those statements as saying that we are seeing the effects of years of under-investment or wrongly targeted investment in the health sector ...

    But, hey ... what do I know ... I'm not a doctor or an epidemiologist ... I'm just a cynical lawyer who asks questions and knows from my own health picture that spending time outside, eating healthily, not smoking and exercising has meant that it's years since I've had any form of cold or flu ...    :angel
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  • « Last Edit: March 17, 2020, 03:29 by Kiwirider »

    Kiwirider

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #88 on: March 17, 2020, 03:25 »
    Two things that I found out today that blow me away about this situation ...

    First, Canada's government is apparently giving a researcher $1m to study the effects of covid on indigenous communities.
    For the record, many of these communities have poisoned water supplies and are dependent on water being trucked in from afar. They also lack many of the basics of normal, relatively modern (not even truly modern) life.
    They can't get jack sh*t for projects to address that ... but some prof gets big bucks to study what???

    Second, I was reading an article about Canada's opportunity to "flatten the curve" in a very respectable local magazine.
    They have tracked cases back to the first observed in the Canada back on 25 Jan. That curve shows a long tail, a slight rise, some limited acceleration and, overall, a pretty low level of cases (400 or so in a population of 34m).
    However, that tail doesn't show the exponential growth that the author of the article wanted to prove .., so he did the classic "drunk and lamp post" trick with stats ... and cut off the tail!! Taking out all cases below the 100 cases level - which was about March 10 or 11.
    Cutting off those first 45 days and only focusing on the last 6 shows the exponential curve that lets certain groups sell their story.
    Of course, it also provides a deeply skewed picture ... not to mention a false one (even without breaking down the stats into ages, province, heatlh, comorbidity, etc)

    Both of those events leave me pretty much speechless ...
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  • Drummer Boy

    • Classics Winner
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #89 on: March 17, 2020, 05:51 »
    So check this out. This is an eerily prescient warning from Bill Gates from just five years ago. To watch it now is nothing short of astounding.

    Bill Gates: The next outbreak? We’re not ready
    2015


    So fascinating to hear him refer to the Ebola outbreak as a "wake up call," when really, it's the current COVID-9 pandemic that will likely force any change in the system that might come. I've been saying how this really has been the dress rehearsal that we, as a planet, never really had. Should something truly terrifying make its way into our lives in the near future, I can only hope that the circumstances of today will have prepared us for that.
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