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just some guy

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https://www.ft.com/content/f7d08906-b5c5-4210-b2c6-0ec95d533bc6

Headline says only 5% of population of Spain  have had CoVid-19

Of course some areas much higher others less.

Seems like lots this article can back up what ever bias you have
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  • Of course, if this turns out someday to be the industry standard integrated handlebar-computer-braking solution then I'll eat my kevlar-reinforced aerodynamic hat.

    Larri Nov 12, 2014

    Mellow Velo

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    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.

    just some guy

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    Was just looking on one of those projections sites linked from worldometer Sweden predictions of death rate have halved from over 10 000 to just over 5000 by early August.
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Grocery shopping is still hit or miss here. The main store I go to is generally not very crowded, but the stock levels of shelves is still very inconsistent. Some weeks there's fish, other weeks none. Some weeks a modest selection of meat, others it's very sparse. Frozen goods are still limited to two items per person, and the selection is somewhat wanting. Paper goods are slowly re-appearing, but with limits of two items per customer as well. Eggs and dairy were limited to two for several weeks, but this week the limit was down to just one per customer. Produce has mostly returned to pre-COVID levels, but other items such as rice and pastas have yet to see fully, or even partially, stocked shelves.

    At the outset of all this, I did not expect such limitations to last this long. With everyone now being required to wear masks, shopping for food has become an entirely joyless endeavor. I drove by the local Whole Foods (speciality foods, organic offerings, hard to find items, artisanal products, etc —for those unfamiliar with the national chain), and it was just as I had heard: Long lines outside the store with everyone carefully spaced the required 6 ft /2 meters between them; shoppers only allowed in at light intervals to prevent crowding inside; everyone wearing masks and gloves.

    Whole Foods is the only store where I've seen such strict policies implemented, but they would otherwise tend to be one of the busiest, so most likely to have the most densely packed aisles. This particular store is in the center of a very affluent town (they all are, actually, somewhat by design), and rich people love their organic kale and overpriced papaya smoothies, so such measures are probably necessary to tame the enthusiasm. The fact that people were lined up in the rain for the privilege of waiting at least 30 minutes to gain entry was amusing to me. I can only imagine the gleeful conformity that must be on display once rarefied access is granted. I'm guessing there's a lot of designer hemp face masks on display as well.

    Who shops regularly at a Whole Foods?

    People like this:
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    hope you enjoyed your egg this week, Drummer :D
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    LukasCPH

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    Grocery shopping is still hit or miss here.
    Interesting.
    There were shortages here in Germany back in March/early April, but only of dry pasta, toilet paper, and (for some reason) yeast.
    By early/mid April, pasta was back to normal stocks, and toilet paper, while still not filling the shelves, is available again. Even yeast has returned to the shelves.
    For any other products, I never noticed any particular difference from 'normal' stocks.

    Also, I have yet to experience having to wait outside a shop for any length of time before being allowed to enter. I've stood outside e.g. the butcher's for a minute (restricted to three customers in the shop at a time), but never faced any restrictions at supermarkets.
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    Mellow Velo

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    Interesting.
    There were shortages here in Germany back in March/early April, but only of dry pasta, toilet paper, and (for some reason) yeast.
    By early/mid April, pasta was back to normal stocks, and toilet paper, while still not filling the shelves, is available again. Even yeast has returned to the shelves.
    For any other products, I never noticed any particular difference from 'normal' stocks.

    Also, I have yet to experience having to wait outside a shop for any length of time before being allowed to enter. I've stood outside e.g. the butcher's for a minute (restricted to three customers in the shop at a time), but never faced any restrictions at supermarkets.

     We have apparently turned into a nation of bakers.
    Lukas mentions yeast, our "like gold dust" ingredient remains self-raising flour.
    Otherwise, exactly the same here, with the once absent dried pasta, toilet paper and cleaning products pretty much readily available again.

     However, we do have issue over queuing to get into supermarkets. Some are fairly minor, but others can snake around car parks, with folks waiting for anything up to a couple of hours: weekends being particularly congested.
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  • Servais Knavendish

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    We have apparently turned into a nation of bakers.
    Lukas mentions yeast, our "like gold dust" ingredient remains self-raising flour.



    Absolutely spot on - have resorted to buying flour in plain brown paper baggies from suppliers that I had no idea existed...  birthday cake armageddon averted!
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  • just some guy

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    Patient requiring ICU is dropping like a stone. No idea if they have died or not, but patients are not lining up to get in. So seems the Swedish experiment is going ok again
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  • just some guy

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    The R value for Sweden got a mention in a press conference . Nothing exact but still below 1
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  • AG

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    here in West Aus we have had 2 cases in the last 2 weeks or more ... so definitely under control.

    The vast majority of our cases were imported anyway - travel, cruise ships etc ... so no real community spread anyway.

    Our lockdown was pretty light on.  Only 2 people could visit your house, about 50% of the retail shops closed, restaurants and bars closed, but could still do takeaway etc.

    Restaurants opening tomorrow - max 20 people ... but that will ease significantly within the next 2-3 weeks I would think.  Other community facilities and gyms etc also opening tomorrow.  Most shops have reopened in the last week or two as well.  And all kids back at school.

    Slowly going back to normal - but there are still some regional travel restrictions - and hte interstate and international borders will be closed for some time to come.

    On the home front - had a birthday party for my daughter today ... Having 15 people in my house was a shock to the system after having no one for so long.  But nice.
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  • just some guy

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    here in West Aus we have had 2 cases in the last 2 weeks or more ... so definitely under control.

    The vast majority of our cases were imported anyway - travel, cruise ships etc ... so no real community spread anyway.

    Our lockdown was pretty light on.  Only 2 people could visit your house, about 50% of the retail shops closed, restaurants and bars closed, but could still do takeaway etc.

    Restaurants opening tomorrow - max 20 people ... but that will ease significantly within the next 2-3 weeks I would think.  Other community facilities and gyms etc also opening tomorrow.  Most shops have reopened in the last week or two as well.  And all kids back at school.

    Slowly going back to normal - but there are still some regional travel restrictions - and hte interstate and international borders will be closed for some time to come.

    On the home front - had a birthday party for my daughter today ... Having 15 people in my house was a shock to the system after having no one for so long.  But nice.

    Happy Birthday Miss AG
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  • just some guy

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    just some guy

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    just some guy

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    just some guy

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    just some guy

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    just some guy

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    Drummer Boy

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    Well this all just got very personal for me. I'll share my own story as it unfolds, as best I can, in the interest of all that we've been sharing thus far on the topic.

    My father just tested positive for COVID-19. This, on Tuesday, May 19th.

    For several reasons, I'll be very surprised if he survives the rest of the week.

    Here's the backstory:
    Both my parents are quite old. My Mom will be 90 in a few months, and my Dad is set to turn 91 in a few days. I'm in my mid-50s already (which, on its own, is bizarre enough for me to contemplate), and the past few years of my life have been dominated by trying to care for the two of them as I am only one of two children, and my sister is nearly 2000 km away with her own burdens and responsibilities.

    For the most part, they have been remarkably healthy for their age, with the downside of that being that they have outlived nearly all their friends and relatives. As an example, my father was not only skiing, but was a ski instructor as recently as six years ago. While my mom has required much more care than he over the years, his condition took a rapid downturn a few months ago.

    An occasional balance problem that led to occasional falls, progressed over time to more frequent occurrences of both. But he would always bounce back from whatever injuries or setbacks he encountered. He even survived heart surgery at the age of 86, the goal of which was to repair a faulty valve that he's had for decades  But he's had congestive heart failure for some time, and that has invited its own set of problems over the years. But more recently the balance issues led to a weakness and instability in his legs that left him unable to move about by himself, and other somewhat undetermined conditions were causing steady weight loss that equated to about a pound a day for nearly 25 days straight.

    He's been admitted into the hospital twice in the past two months, the first for fluid build-up in his legs and lungs (which caused breathing problems), and the second for continued back pain after yet another fall, and the concerning, ongoing weight loss. On top of all that, there was an obvious mental decline that seem to accelerate noticeably in just the past few weeks.

    After his more recent hospital stay that only lasted a couple of days, they were ready to send him home. But he was in a state of requiring full-on nursing care, and that just wasn't an option at home. Because of the current state of our health care system, he wouldn't qualify for the necessary coverage, and he certainly couldn't afford to pay out-of-pocket for private care. But insurance would cover, for a short time (a few weeks to possibly a few months, at the most) the cost of nursing home/rehab care. So that was our only option. He was no longer able to function on his own, and he needed daily medical monitoring. Our plan was to transition that into him being a full time resident at a nursing home, as it had become evident that that was the only way possible to take care of him.

    Enter coronavirus, and of course the entire scenario becomes exponentially more complicated. As I've been reporting in this thread, nursing homes have been ravaged by COVID-19, and as a result, it's very difficult right now to get admitted anywhere. Many homes are outright refusing new patients. The obvious reason being they don't want any new patients potentially bringing new cases of the virus into their facilities, the other being that so many places are currently short-staffed due to virus-related illness.

    But we literally had zero options in front of us. The hospital wouldn't keep him, and even if they did, there are obvious risks in that environment. Even with home care, now you introduce all sorts of other risks with various people coming in and out of the home on a daily basis. Nursing homes are now fully aware of COVID-19 risks, and so those that are accepting patients are doing all that they can to limit the spread (or at least that's what we're being told).

    So in order to be transferred from hospital to nursing home, my dad had to be tested for COVID-19. That was back on April 27, and it took approximately 36 hours for a negative result to come back. He was then cleared for admittance to the nursing home, where he would then be isolated for a period of 14 days to ensure that he remained asymptomatic. So far, so good.

    While there, he was still allowed controlled visits from my mom where normally patients could peer out a large bay window to friends and family, but in my parents case they allowed them to see each other through an open door on the side of one of the hallways. Everyone was masked and gloved, and the staff had all the expected layers of protection. All this time my father was still in a very weakened state, sleeping most of the time, still had pain in his back, still contending with ongoing kidney issues, and still struggling with a slowly degenerating heart condition that had been in decline for many years. Mentally he had good and bad days, and some days his speech was so garbled it was hard to make sense of what he was trying to say. On other days he was perfectly aware of his surroundings and able to communicate reasonably well.

    Yesterday, though, some sudden changes occurred. In the morning, I had actually gone to the nursing home for him to sign some financial papers, which he was able to do with only minor assistance from the nurse. He was alert, and his overall condition was considered to be anywhere from fair to slightly better than usual. But a few hours later I received a call that his blood oxygen levels were getting dangerously low, and his breathing was becoming more labored. He had been on a recent dose of antibiotics for traces of some type of pneumonia, and had also gone from needing oxygen at night only, to requiring oxygen during the day as well. But that was all in just the past few days.

    So the decision was made yesterday afternoon to send him back to the hospital. Of course he would be tested again for COVID-19 upon arrival, and we were waiting for the results of that test as a few hours ago. I spoke with one of the doctors earlier in the day, and she was concerned that he may have COVID based on the chest scans she had seen (not sure if they were x-rays or some other method). But then this evening his nurse called to tell us that the test had turned out to be negative. But false negatives are not uncommon, so she was expecting that by morning they would probably test him again for more accuracy.

    Then less than an hour later, the nurse called me back to reveal that the negative test results she had been looking at were, in fact, from his previous stay at the hospital, and those test results were dated April 29. As it turned out, just ten minutes prior to her calling me,  she had been alerted to the status of his actual test from yesterday, the results of which now confirmed that he is positive for COVID-19.

    All things considered, I feel that is now highly unlikely that he will make it to his 91st birthday. The doctors will decide the next course of action, but he's being moved to another wing of the hospital where other COVID-19-positive patients are being treated. We all know how rapidly the virus can overtake the elderly, especially those with "underlying conditions," a litany of which he already possesses.

    So that's where I'm at as the clock here moves just past midnight. Will he survive the night? I do not know. Will he survive the week? I'd say that's highly unlikely. If I come across as matter-of-fact regarding any of this, it's primarily because I've had more than enough time to contemplate almost any scenario, and for the past few months my father has been merely existing rather than living. The pain and difficulty will really be upon my mother who is feeling helpless in the midst of all this isolation, and as someone who was a nurse herself in her younger years, not being able to visit my father in the hospital and be by his side is exceptionally difficult for her.
    This, after more than 60 years of marriage to one another.

    Of course the other question on the table is:
    Did he contract coronavirus from the nursing home?
    If so, when and how?
    I'll have more to say about all of that in the coming days, as I already had a narrative developing based on some of my personal experiences.

    And should my father pass away in the near to immediate future, his will certainly be listed as yet another COVID-19 casualty, a statistic that doesn't even begin to tell half the story.

    That's all I have for now.
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  • Mellow Velo

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     Seems like our circumstances have been pretty similar, so I can empathise with what you are going through, right now.
     Although decline took several years, it was also a virus in my case and was still a shock at the time.
     Take care and best wishes.
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  • LukasCPH

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    And should my father pass away in the near to immediate future, his will certainly be listed as yet another COVID-19 casualty, a statistic that doesn't even begin to tell half the story.

    That's all I have for now.
    My deepest sympathies. :hug

    You touch upon a very important thing at the end: Every human life has a story to be told. And focusing only on the numbers ('only so-and-so many new cases this week, so we can open up again' and the like) means that those stories, each and every one of them important and valuable, can and do lose focus.
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  • AG

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    Many hugs   :hug

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  • just some guy

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    Been laughing/crying about what our work loads will be after the stop on non acute medical procedures start.

    Stockholm area 44 000 operations and the diabetic wound centre at the hospital has over 700 on their waiting list apparently. (Ran into to someone I know that works there)

    Denmark is opening up restrictions faster now as the R value keeps dropping.

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  • Drummer Boy

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    Some interesting developments on both the local front and personal side of things. I'm bit pressed for time right now but I'll try to share an abbreviated version of the personal.

    Re: my Dad
    For a guy that has, throughout his life, generally defied the norms of health and medicine by having little concern for convention, and mostly doing things his own way with little regard for habits or methods that others might avoid (I'll expand that in a subsequent post), and for someone who has always been extremely stubborn and mostly set in his own ways—the rest of the world, and anyone around him, be damned—is proving to be just as confounding by not adhering to his demise as recently projected.

    I got a call from two doctors last night, one of which is a specialist in infectious diseases. As it turns out, my fathers oxygen levels have been returning to normal, and he generally responding well without having been given any specific anti-coronavirus treatment. Part of that reason being that some the medications simply weren't available to the hospital. Well that has now changed.

    They have started my father on a 5-day infusion of Remdesivir, which Wiki describes as, "a broad-spectrum antiviral medication developed by the biopharmaceutical company Gilead Sciences. As of 2020, remdesivir is being tested as a specific treatment for COVID-19, and has been authorized for emergency use in the U.S. and approved for use in Japan for people with severe symptoms." I would imagine that most of you are familiar with it or have heard it mentioned in the news.

    In addition that, they asked for, and were granted by me, permission to enroll him in a Mayo Clinic trial of Convalescent plasma therapy, which involves an infusion from the blood plasma of someone who has successfully recovered from COVID-19, and whose blood contains antibodies capable of fighting off the virus.

    Now, both of these developments are surprising to me on a number of levels.
    1) I barely expected him to even make it to today, and not sure the doctors did either, as of just a few days ago.
    2) A 5-day treatment plan would, at the very minimum, suggest that they anticipate him being alive at least six more days from now.
    3) He is very old, and already in a very weakened and declining state, with a heart that has been slowly fading for several years now.

    But this is the guy they want to try experimental treatments on? :slow

    Okay. For one thing, I know my Dad would embrace this stuff. He loves science (he was an aeronautical engineer himself), generally has a very high regard for doctors and their opinions, and has never shied away from the notion of seeking medication to solve a problem.

    But another thing to understand about my father is that he is endlessly confounding, and easily the most frustrating person I've ever encountered in my life. Nothing is ever easy. EVER. If there's a way to complicate something—anything—he will find a way. So it came as little surprise when the specialist soon called back to inform me that my father's blood type is AB-, which, as it turns out, is the rarest of them all. Apparently only less than 1% of the entire population has AB- blood.

    What this really means is that they don't have the necessary match in plasma on hand, so there will be a delay of a few days before they can acquire it. What I find fascinating about all of this is that I have to wonder if having a rare blood type is somehow tied to the many ways in which he has thwarted disease and outlived nearly all of his friends, while simultaneously ignoring convention and common sense that guide most people's daily habits.

    As I said, I'll try to elaborate further on this in a follow-up, but part of me was actually hoping that having more expert attention focused on my dad would help reveal some aspect of his overall being that might explain his longevity and physical refusal to conform or submit to so many of the ills and pitfalls that have consumed so many others, most of them being much younger than he. I was just not expecting something as, perhaps, clear cut as an exceptionally rare blood type. It does make me wonder.

    So for now, he's doing surprisingly well, although he most definitely requires high volumes of supplemental oxygen. But he has been alert and aware during video calls, and continues to amaze all those who have encountered him. Perhaps he presents as somewhat of a medical mystery to the experts. If nothing else, what they learn from him will most certainly contribute to the greater body of knowledge that's being pieced together surrounding the coronavirus. And I'm confident that he would be pleased by that. 

    I'm not unrealistic about any of this, as I'm fully aware that at any moment he could take a turn for the worse and quickly meet his demise. But he's not in any pain or great discomfort at the moment, so further treatment seems like a logical course of action.

    I'll keep you posted as this develops.
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  • just some guy

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    Sounds like goodish news DB. Been thinking about your Dad and hoping it goes well
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  • Drummer Boy

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    And just like that...

    My father passed away two hours ago. On his 91st birthday.

    It was all incredibly sudden when it came right down to it. The decline was rapid.

    I had dropped off cards and balloons around noon, which the nurses retrieved from me in the lobby, as no visitors are allowed. About an hour later my mother and I had a Facetime call with him, which the hospital staff has been facilitating with iPads. He had two oxygen devices attached to his face, so communication was obviously limited. But he was coherent and aware of things, although obviously massively fatigued. We soon signed off with little fanfare.

    Then a few hours later I got a surprise call from one of the doctors telling me that his condition had taken a sudden turn for the worse, and when she went in to see him, he made it perfectly clear to her that he was ready to go. He'd had enough. He was done.

    He already established a "Do not resuscitate; Do not intubate" policy. He never wanted to be kept alive artificially. He was of sound enough mind on his own to make that decision, so at that point he was transitioned into more palliative or "comfort" care. They would reduce some of the procedures that were sustaining him, and administer morphine along with one or two other medications to ease any suffering. They gave him maybe 24 hours to live at that point.

    My sister then received a direct Facetime call from the hospital, as they knew she had intended to call him shortly after me and my mom had spoken to him. As soon as she took the call, he was immediately saying goodbye to her. He wished her well, and truly left her with his final words. And that was pretty much it. I then called back so my mother could have a final goodbye, but he wasn't really interested in that. I think he was just simply exhausted and could no longer stand living as he was. I suspect that his birthday really drove home the reality of his life: there he was, being kept alive in a hospital bed, away from friends and family, and he knew he would never be going home again.

    He did say goodbye, and there as a bit of a virtual touch of hands from one screen to another between my parents, and then he waved the nurse off who was holding the iPad. About an hour or so after that I got the final call from the doctor saying he had just died. It happened that quickly.

    My own feelings are mostly those of relief. He'd been declining in a number of ways for some time now, and he was no longer truly living but merely existing. It's not a life he ever would've wanted for himself.

    I must also add how incredibly impressed I've been by all the doctors and nurses that we've been in touch through all of this. After the immense burden they've had to endure throughout this pandemic, they showed an extraordinary level of care and compassion towards us at every turn. They were unbelievable helpful, patient, and communicative at every step along the way. They are every bit the heroes that the media has been making them out to be. I just can't say enough about them, and how grateful I am for all of it.

    And thus ends a significant chapter of this particular story, and of my own life's unfolding and ever-expanding experiences. At the start of this thread, I never imagined I'd be contributing in such a manner.

    Thanks to everyone who has followed along, and to all who have been supportive. I've still got more to add, but from a different perspective moving forward.

    It's set to be a beautiful Memorial Day holiday weekend here, and I very much hope to be able to get on my bike in order to clear my head a bit and process all of this.

    Best wishes to all.
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  • Archieboy

    • Road Captain
    • Country: england
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    Condolences to you Drummer..
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  • AG

    • Monument Winner
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    • Awards: Winner, 2013 National Championships prediction gameFan of the Year 2013
    oh DB I am so sorry   :hug
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  • just some guy

    • Fourth Generation humanoid bot
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    Thinking of you DB.
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