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ciranda

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
« Reply #90 on: March 17, 2020, 11:47 »
Interesting, as this very much contradicts much of the noise I've read online. Is this generally accepted as true?


I think that was an older paper from WHO that I can't find now so maybe wrong Idk. There is this which says ninth https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)30994-2/fulltext#fig1 this comparison says fourth https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-19/u-s-near-bottom-of-health-index-hong-kong-and-singapore-at-top

The above was just my impression from media and talking to people who know more.

@kiwirider I read about the comorbidity factor as well from danish authorities, who said that so far almost everyone admitted are chronically ill with something but then I read articles in italian papers about some of the dead who were often people that were just old but with no medical history (not data just people's stories).
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #91 on: March 17, 2020, 13:02 »
    ... and that Italy's healthcare system has consistently had funding cuts since about 2012 as the government has sought to bring budgets under control ... so it would be interesting to see how much the impacts of those cuts have shown through.

    from this statistics it looks like it's rather steady

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/788691/share-of-gdp-on-health-expenditure-in-italy/

    and given that there's quite a huge difference between the North and the South...

    https://www.thelocal.it/20180219/italy-north-south-health-inequality

    ... personally I'd say, the health care system in that part of the country is pretty good (compared to other European countries)
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    ciranda

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #92 on: March 17, 2020, 13:24 »
    Age is definitely a factor. i read a study that showed that for Italy either the average or median (again, sorry, can't remember the source - and I'm writing this before I race down for breakfast at my hotel and off to work!) age is 80 years ...  Whichever parameter it is, we're (with all due respect to the dead) dealing with a lot of people who are naturally nearing the end of their life and so are seeing what, based on my experience with older friends and family, is just a normal slight acceleration of their end. (Again, as I say, with all due respect to people's loss.)
    I agree a great number of old people with chronic respiratory or other problems will think to themselves or maybe say out loud; if this is my time to go that's ok. Maybe they have been ill and hospitalized a lot already. But their families will surely not think like that. In addition it is not at all a quiet way to die. Patients are sedated heavily towards the end because otherwise they will choke to death isolated in a sterilized room with no relatives there to visit and say hi or just be there.

    If comorbidity is as low as 50 percent that's a lot of people with basically just weakened immune defense because of age that had otherwise been healthy.

    The papers I linked to are from 2016 and 2018.
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #93 on: March 17, 2020, 14:06 »
    Just found out that my work while a long way from the frontline, is going to have to stay open if/when we have a 14 day lockdown.

    1st day at the Hospital that we noticed big changes, not where I work but we are there working with Patients. Non essential departments are closing, ortho ops not going ahead.

    Very different to 24 hours ago
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #94 on: March 17, 2020, 14:07 »
    Back to the slightly less scary Olympics side of the debate...

    The only option there is 2021 then 3 years before the next.
    4 years is a non starter. Imagine if London 2012 had to wait until 2016.
    Get this wrong and there may never be another Olympics.


    Hi MV not sure that I get why is 4 years a non starter? 

    I mean it's about as far from ideal as possible; and gives the Japanese government 4 years to carry the infrastructure debt; before any ticket returns etc.  But when you look at London there would have been no issue with not putting up the temporary structures and simply somewhat perversely using the other stadia in a post Games usage pattern in advance of the Games.

    My worry is that no one is quite sure that the essential and now much impacted event pre-qualifying etc will even be viable in Q1 or Q2 2021; and another enforced delay might be terminal?
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #95 on: March 17, 2020, 14:09 »
    Word is Olympics in 2 years if cancelled ie 2022. Commonwealth games probably loose out
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #96 on: March 17, 2020, 14:40 »
    Interesting view from the ground. The first few minutes are telling.

    SOCIAL DISTANCE CYCLING


    Quote
    Just a few days before the Coronavirus Lockdown riding through TIMES SQUARE, NEW YORK. Not sure why people are still out crowding restaurants and bars. I hope you all are practicing social isolation/ quarantine

    -----------------

    Then this...

    https://twitter.com/Vaughters/status/1239927810849832961
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  • « Last Edit: April 09, 2020, 19:29 by Drummer Boy »

    Mellow Velo

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #97 on: March 17, 2020, 16:01 »
    Back to the slightly less scary Olympics side of the debate...

    Hi MV not sure that I get why is 4 years a non starter? 



     It's simply too long to maintain all of the facilities, especially when many sites are usually designated to future urban projects/developments.
     At least, that's what I am assuming, given the Tokyo Bay Zone, is said to be: designed to serve as a “model for innovative urban development.”

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  • "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #98 on: March 17, 2020, 16:06 »
    so far Bach seems to see no reason to postpone the Games at all

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  • t-72

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #99 on: March 17, 2020, 22:55 »
    For those that can read *se Swedish (actually it is about Finland):


    For the rest, this is about the way that the Finnish are usually caricatured in film and literature. Finnish TV-drama used to be a weekly screening when I grew up and it was mostly small groups lost in the woods finding a sauna and a few bottles of vodka so they they could sit down and be properly melancholic  ;)

    Anyway, an attempt at translating it:
    "Finnish authorities requests that citizens stay away from other people".

    The comment:
    "And now,  bastards, you are about to see quarantine that really works.
    WE WERE BORN FOR THIS!"

     :D
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #100 on: March 17, 2020, 23:11 »
    "Finnish authorities requests that citizens stay away from other people".
    Parties in ... well, not in the streets of Helsinki.

    Parties by every Finn separately, in their own homes. :lol
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    Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #101 on: March 18, 2020, 02:29 »
    I returned to the super market this afternoon. It was actually a pleasant surprise to see much of the store completely restocked with fresh meat and produce, all displayed on recently-well cleaned shelves. They were still very much in the process of restocking parts of the frozen food section, and cleaning materials along with paper goods were still nowhere to be found. But it was encouraging to see that desperate shoppers hadn't ruined the supply chain (yet).

    The crowds were about what I would normally expect for a Tuesday afternoon, and everyone seemed very relaxed and chilled out. Hopefully this means that the first wave of hysterical shopping was a one-and-done ordeal.

    But now I see that New York City is considering a "Shelter-in place" order, much like what San Francisco has already adopted. Personally, I have a serious problem with such policies.

    Under the strict public health measure, all non-essential businesses would be shut down. That means only police and fire departments, hospitals, grocery stores, pharmacies and perhaps gas stations, banks and laundromats would remain open.

    Quote
    “It’s taking some of the rules we’re encouraging people to follow now making them tighter and reducing the workforce greatly and reducing travel greatly,” Mayor Bill de Blasio said, warning that food service and retail could be shut down.

    Folks would need to have a reason to be outside that would be deemed “essential” — like picking up groceries or medicine. Only essential workers would be allowed to move about.

    In San Francisco, leaving the house for exercise such as walking, hiking or running, is allowed — as long as they remain six feet away from people who don’t live with them. The mayor didn’t specify whether that would be the case in the Big Apple, but did say that activities like Little League would be “gone.”

    Also in San Francisco, anyone in violation of the order could be charged with a misdemeanor.

    It’s not clear whether New York will follow suit, but de Blasio did say that the [police] NYPD would be deployed in the streets for enforcement, as would, perhaps, the [fire dept] FDNY.

    Quote
    De Blasio also didn’t rule out travel out of the city being banned.  :S
    I've no idea how that would even be legal. It's just mind-boggling to think how quickly, and with such apparent ease, that a police state could be put in place.

    Edit:
    More local news just in:

    The school year has just gone from a two-week hiatus to termination. What was supposed to be Spring Break has become the end of the semester. That will reek havoc with all the high school seniors as far as final grades, sports records, proms and graduations go.

    For everyone else it's probably party time.  :party

    I despised high school as a teen. Something like this would've been like a gift from God.
    Maybe it's a blessing in disguise for teachers as well. If they still get paid, they may just end up with a nice six-month break before the fall semester begins.

    I've no idea how this is all going to shake out. So many unknowns; so many variables; so many implications.
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  • « Last Edit: March 18, 2020, 02:39 by Drummer Boy »

    Mellow Velo

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #102 on: March 18, 2020, 07:03 »
    A second patient in Wales has died from coronavirus, it has been confirmed.

    The 96-year-old patient was being treated..........


    Age not a factor, then. :S
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #103 on: March 18, 2020, 08:51 »
    Age is a factor so is previous medical conditions, but not always.

    But being over 50 - lower immunity add to that being sick

    Not officially yet but France , Seattle and NYC have seen very fit 30-40 year old with severe symptoms only link anti inflammatory drugs

    Quiet a few very healthy Drs and Nurses are getting very sick FWIW
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #104 on: March 18, 2020, 12:42 »
     The UCI are extending the season, initially to November 1st and looking to overlap races.

    https://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/racing/uci-extends-cycling-season-451978

     I think they could easily go a couple of weeks further into November before there's much chance of the weather matching that at the early stages of the season.
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #105 on: March 18, 2020, 12:53 »
    I think they could easily go a couple of weeks further into November before there's much chance of the weather matching that at the early stages of the season.

    yeah, I don't think anyone would mind an edition of Paris-Roubaix in early December even ;D
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #107 on: March 18, 2020, 13:51 »
    Age has been a factor so far now it seems that the virus is more and more affecting younger people. In Belgium, on 15 March the majority of the women infected ranged between 40 and 44 and men between 45 and 49. Also we had eleven babies or 4- year old kids infected. So younger people are not immune to the virus. I think they will survive but they are having a real bad time.

    https://www.dhnet.be/actu/belgique/coronavirus-en-belgique-11-des-886-cas-sont-des-bebes-ou-enfants-de-moins-de-4-ans-la-tranche-d-age-la-plus-touchee-se-situe-entre-45-et-49-ans-5e6e6becf20d5a29c66e491d

    The case of Camille, 31 years old, living in Brussels, has upset many of us. She had no health issues prior to getting the virus and regularly did sport. She is now bedridden, with breathing complication and constantly gasping. At first she felt pain in the bowels like gastro-enteritis. Then four days later, headaches, extreme fatigue, stretched back and fever. Two days later, she could no longer prepare a meal as she was short of breath and could no longer move. She collapsed. "When you are lying down on the ground, you know that coronavirus is more than a flu". A special ambulance took her (as she was quarantined).

    https://www.facebook.com/ka.mille.94/posts/10219296927106929

    Pretty sure that Camille is going to survive but nobody wants to live what she's living. That's why she's encouraging us to be careful (wear gloves, masks, or a scarf).   :cool
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  • "Paris-Roubaix is the biggest cycling race in the world, bigger than the Tour de France, bigger than any other bike race" (Sir Bradley Wiggins)

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #108 on: March 18, 2020, 15:02 »
    The case of Camille, 31 years old, living in Brussels, has upset many of us.

    Understandably, but with such severe symptoms and reactions, I have to wonder of she's battling other health issues as well. Her condition does not sound consistent with anything else I've read about.

    As far as young children: I don't think there's any question that they are susceptible to contracting the virus, but the overall consensus is that symptoms will typically be very mild, if present at all. Were that to change, however, then we'd be looking at a much more concerning global trend.
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #109 on: March 18, 2020, 15:08 »
    I don't think that it will be anything outside the borders -

    Speaking of which:

    They've just closed the borders between Canada and the U.S. for travelers.

    As far as I know, this does not apply to goods and services

    That's a news headline I never imagined seeing in my lifetime.

     *ca   :sick  :wut  :disapointed *usa
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #110 on: March 19, 2020, 01:59 »
    There's a shift in the narrative taking place, and it's quite concerning.

    As more data emerges, the younger generation appears to be at greater risk than previously believed. This is significant, and not something to be dismissed too easily. If anything, alarm bells should be going off. Initially, it appeared that the youth were not at any great risk, and that the main concern was their ability to spread it to other, more vulnerable, members of society.

    But now there are reports of permanent lung damage being sustained, and other damaging effects of the virus on pre-teens, teens, and those in their early twenties. This is quite a contrast to what we were being told only a few days ago.

    Everything is moving so quickly that it will likely take a bit more time to sort this all out, but it's the most frightening development I've seen since the pandemic set in, and the data seems to be moving in that direction.

    Speaking of...
    Spring Break seems to be in full swing in my favorite state of Florida, and there's no shortage of dumb college kids gathering for drunken revelry, with zero concern for themselves or others. They would appear to be graduates of Tide Pod U. after making statements such as, "Ya' know, if I get corona, I get corona."

    They still probably haven't been told that it's not a lifetime supply of Mexican beer. I just don't understand why the local governments are allowing this (besides the obvious profit motive). But the Florida governor should've stepped in and just said No. Now these mentally challenged morons are going to scatter back home across the country, bringing with them god-only-knows what.

    If I were on the receiving end of that, as governor of their destination state, I would impose a mandatory 4-week quarantine in the least hospitable warehouse I could find. Bologna sandwiches and water to soothe their hunger pangs, along with all the comforts of sleeping on a concrete floor.
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #112 on: March 19, 2020, 14:00 »
    I was able to sleep in much later than usual today, but I'm not sure what I'm waking up to.

    The warnings are becoming more dire. Some local hospitals are expecting to be at capacity by this weekend.

    40% of patients so far are 20 to 54-years-old.

    The veneer is slowly slipping from newscasters as some of them are no longer pretending that this won't be terrible. They don't want to create panic, but they seem to be moving on from the idea that this requires anything less than a very serious response. There's less and less room for niceties and formalities.

    I'll admit that I wasn't quite expecting this. I think it's still too early to know just how bad it may or may not get, but the next five days or so are going to be somewhat grim and very telling. If the virus turns out to be much more dangerous than we were originally led to believe, then it may be too late by the time we come to terms with that. Too late in terms of proper containment, that is.

    The U.S. may very soon become the next epicenter. I guess we'll find out which country has the most dumb people, too. I would think that we could secure that title with ease, I'm just wondering if we'll get a chance to prove it to the world. 
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #113 on: March 20, 2020, 00:18 »
    Here is Aus they still have not closed schools. 

    They have announced closed borders at least, and some social distancing measures ... but people dont really take them that seriously.  People are still going out to eat and socialise and some sport is still on.

    We dont have many cases ... but it is trending the exact same way as everywhere else, so I am not sure why the govt believes that we will be any different.
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #114 on: March 20, 2020, 14:38 »
    They have announced closed borders at least

    I thought those were called the Indian and Pacific oceans? :slow  :P

    Surprised to hear that it's not being taken more seriously otherwise, though. Are they waiting for a bigger case study than what most of the planet is already offering?
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #115 on: March 20, 2020, 18:44 »
    The restrictions and confinements are creeping ever-closer to our state line.  :wut

    New York Governor Cuomo shuts down "non-essential" businesses amid coronavirus


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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #116 on: March 20, 2020, 23:03 »
    well, the circumstances in Singapore are a bit different though, located on an island with just a handful of ways inside the city/country.

    They did a good job keeping it under control for sure, especially as they acted early on, completely isolating the cases and tracking back all contacts they had. But we are far beyond the point where similar measures could still work out elsewhere.
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #117 on: March 20, 2020, 23:42 »
    Those things aren't necessarily bad ... check out what Singapore did

    Thanks for sharing that. That was quite an interesting read.

    One thing that was conspicuously missing was any mention of the climate/temps. There was initial speculation that warmer whether inhibited the spread of the virus, and I remember some pointing to Singapore as possible validation of that. But then I saw a report that disputed this notion, and I haven't heard much about it since. But I do wonder if climate played a role at all, however minor, in curbing the effects of the virus in Singapore.

    Three main things jumped out for me in that article:

    1) Keeping the schools open (without any apparent crisis arising as a result).

    2) The importance of clear and orderly communication from the government top-down.

    3) The fact that the previous Sars outbreak served as a valuable dress-rehearsal. Which is made even more impressive when one realizes that that was nearly 20 years ago, and yet the country still remained vigilant so many years later.

    That's what I feel can be the silver lining to the current COVID-19 pandemic. If there's anything positive to come out of this, it's that, hopefully, all countries and will be better prepared in terms of stock piling the necessary medical supplies ahead of time, and systems of quick-reaction will be put in place to respond in the event of something even much more serious.

    The other, and perhaps much more significant, gain to be made from all this is a general public that now fully understands the concept of what a pandemic is, what it can do, and how quickly it can escalate. Even more beneficial is having a public that understands shut-down mode. Prior to all this (and this only goes back a few weeks), it was nearly inconceivable that so much travel would be restricted, and that so many people would be forced to stay at home. Should the need for a similar response arise in the near future, it would be exponentially easier for people to wrap their heads around what needs to be done, and what it looks and feels like to do it.
     
    That, to me, is an invaluable lesson to be learned from all this, and there's really no substitute for the real thing. There's just no way we could've staged a world-wide preparatory drill before this. It could only be done when faced with reality. But considering the fact that scientists have been warning of pandemics, super-bugs, and even the potential for bio-warfare, for many years, this may turn out to be little more than a "fire-drill" for the future.
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #118 on: March 21, 2020, 02:14 »
    Basically science is confirming what Grandma knew - sunlight, warm temps and fresh air beats a bug ...!

    Thanks, I'll check out those links. As to the above...

    I was joking among some friends that, won't it just be the case that those idiotic college kids in Florida, flaunting their participation in Spring Break, will dodge the bullet simply because coronavirus does not like sand, sunshine and saltwiter. (And who knows, maybe the virus is not fond of Mexican beer either, so those dumb kids may just be inadvertently inoculating themselves with hubris.)

    (Btw, the Gov of Florida has finally closed the beaches and sent those brats packing.)
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #119 on: March 21, 2020, 02:43 »


    It appears that my home state is joining in the fun too.  :wut

    Gov. Lamont Orders Non-Essential Businesses Closed; Urges Residents to Stay Home

    Lamont is issuing an executive order to slow the growth of coronavirus in Connecticut and allow for as many available hospital beds as possible.

    ----------------

    What to Know

    - Governor Ned Lamont is signing an executive order as part of a new campaign called "Stay Safe, Stay at Home" that will require non-essential businesses to close.

    - The order will take effect at 8 p.m. on Monday, March 23.

    - A number of exemptions of essential services will be laid out in the coming days, but will include grocery stores, pharmacies, gas stations, ongoing major construction projects and defense industry manufacturing.[/quote]

    "Those retail stores that are non-essential, do not open," he said.

    Businesses that don't comply could face civil fines, Lamont said.

    The closures will take effect at 8 p.m. on Monday, March 23 and could last for weeks, he said:sick

    --------------

    Exemptions from the order will likely include:

    Grocery stores
    Take out and delivery food service
    Gas stations
    Pharmacies
    Major construction projects already underway
    Major defense manufacturing facilities
    Public transportation
    Childcare services
    Auto repair stores
    Hardware stores
    Banks/Financial institutions

    and...

    Package stores.
    You can only push people so far!  :yuush

    ------------------

    Serious question though:
    What about bike shops? Do I need to stock up now on tyres, tubes, chain lube, etc.? :slow

    I'm not sure they've fully thought this through!   :o


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