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LukasCPH

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
« Reply #90 on: March 17, 2020, 09:37 »
Second, I was reading an article about Canada's opportunity to "flatten the curve" in a very respectable local magazine.
They have tracked cases back to the first observed in the Canada back on 25 Jan. That curve shows a long tail, a slight rise, some limited acceleration and, overall, a pretty low level of cases (400 or so in a population of 34m).
However, that tail doesn't show the exponential growth that the author of the article wanted to prove .., so he did the classic "drunk and lamp post" trick with stats ... and cut off the tail!! Taking out all cases below the 100 cases level - which was about March 10 or 11.
Cutting off those first 45 days and only focusing on the last 6 shows the exponential curve that lets certain groups sell their story.
Of course, it also provides a deeply skewed picture ... not to mention a false one (even without breaking down the stats into ages, province, heatlh, comorbidity, etc)
This isn't great.

Here's another thing: Given that the virus began in China in mid-November, and Hubei province was only locked down in mid-January, plus there's a lack of testing basically everywhere, the likelihood of there being a massive dark figure of undiagnosed cases is higher than the opposite.

For all we know, some of us may have had this and, if it was asymptomatic, not even noticed.
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #91 on: March 17, 2020, 11:14 »
    actually a lot of the stats are only starting when the country reaches 100 cases.  It is a bit odd ...
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  • ciranda

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #92 on: March 17, 2020, 11:47 »
    Interesting, as this very much contradicts much of the noise I've read online. Is this generally accepted as true?


    I think that was an older paper from WHO that I can't find now so maybe wrong Idk. There is this which says ninth https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)30994-2/fulltext#fig1 this comparison says fourth https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-19/u-s-near-bottom-of-health-index-hong-kong-and-singapore-at-top

    The above was just my impression from media and talking to people who know more.

    @kiwirider I read about the comorbidity factor as well from danish authorities, who said that so far almost everyone admitted are chronically ill with something but then I read articles in italian papers about some of the dead who were often people that were just old but with no medical history (not data just people's stories).
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  • Kiwirider

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #93 on: March 17, 2020, 12:22 »

    @kiwirider I read about the comorbidity factor as well from danish authorities, who said that so far almost everyone admitted are chronically ill with something but then I read articles in italian papers about some of the dead who were often people that were just old but with no medical history (not data just people's stories).

    Global stats show an approximatley 50% comorbidity with some serious respiratory condition, cancer or diabetes.

    Another significant factor that seems to be popping up - sorry, I can't remember hte source - is the environment.
    For example, Northern Italy has Europe's worst air pollution and, for a city like Milan, a really high population density (approx 7700/km2 - which is higher than Toyko and just under Singapore!!!)

    Age is definitely a factor. i read a study that showed that for Italy either the average or median (again, sorry, can't remember the source - and I'm writing this before I race down for breakfast at my hotel and off to work!) age is 80 years ...  Whichever parameter it is, we're (with all due respect to the dead) dealing with a lot of people who are naturally nearing the end of their life and so are seeing what, based on my experience with older friends and family, is just a normal slight acceleration of their end. (Again, as I say, with all due respect to people's loss.)

    (Remember also that Italy has Europe's oldest average population by some measure ...)

    Again, not a specialist in these fields, but as someone who works with data, interpretation of info, etc these are all the sorts of factors that, if they related to something that I encountered at work, woudl give me pause to think  ...
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  • Kiwirider

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #94 on: March 17, 2020, 12:30 »
    This isn't great.

    Here's another thing: Given that the virus began in China in mid-November, and Hubei province was only locked down in mid-January, plus there's a lack of testing basically everywhere, the likelihood of there being a massive dark figure of undiagnosed cases is higher than the opposite.

    For all we know, some of us may have had this and, if it was asymptomatic, not even noticed.
    Agreed ... and I say that as someone who spent all of last year living and working in an Asian country. My work place has some significant influx of foreign workers from other parts of Asia at the end of the year - including China. The conditions at the site were also less than sanitary - which, combined with the mass of humanity and the climate, to my simple mind spells "incubator" in capital letters ...

    I came home in mid-December with an annoying cough and used to find myself breathing more heavily than normal when I lay in bed. I also found that exercise was harder than normal - despite me doing very regular and decent duration aerobic exercise in my country of work for the entire time that I was there! Symptoms disappeared in about 2-3 weeks after getting home, so that I was good by early in the new year.

    Some of this was more than likely temperature/climatic change between the workplace and home ... but after reading about the start of cases in November, I naturally ask the question ...??
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  • Kiwirider

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #95 on: March 17, 2020, 12:42 »

    I think that was an older paper from WHO that I can't find now so maybe wrong Idk. There is this which says ninth https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)30994-2/fulltext#fig1 this comparison says fourth https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-19/u-s-near-bottom-of-health-index-hong-kong-and-singapore-at-top

    The above was just my impression from media and talking to people who know more.


    Let's not forget that most of those measures are based on access to care - not standard of care and true availability of care (no matter what the country) ...
    (That in part also describes the US result, given the barriers to system entry vs actual standard of care)

    ... and that Italy's healthcare system has consistently had funding cuts since about 2012 as the government has sought to bring budgets under control ... so it would be interesting to see how much the impacts of those cuts have shown through. There are definitely numerous articles on the impact of finance on the results we're seeing (sadly behind paywalls that I'm not subsribed to for the full article ...)
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #96 on: March 17, 2020, 13:02 »
    ... and that Italy's healthcare system has consistently had funding cuts since about 2012 as the government has sought to bring budgets under control ... so it would be interesting to see how much the impacts of those cuts have shown through.

    from this statistics it looks like it's rather steady

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/788691/share-of-gdp-on-health-expenditure-in-italy/

    and given that there's quite a huge difference between the North and the South...

    https://www.thelocal.it/20180219/italy-north-south-health-inequality

    ... personally I'd say, the health care system in that part of the country is pretty good (compared to other European countries)
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    ciranda

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #97 on: March 17, 2020, 13:24 »
    Age is definitely a factor. i read a study that showed that for Italy either the average or median (again, sorry, can't remember the source - and I'm writing this before I race down for breakfast at my hotel and off to work!) age is 80 years ...  Whichever parameter it is, we're (with all due respect to the dead) dealing with a lot of people who are naturally nearing the end of their life and so are seeing what, based on my experience with older friends and family, is just a normal slight acceleration of their end. (Again, as I say, with all due respect to people's loss.)
    I agree a great number of old people with chronic respiratory or other problems will think to themselves or maybe say out loud; if this is my time to go that's ok. Maybe they have been ill and hospitalized a lot already. But their families will surely not think like that. In addition it is not at all a quiet way to die. Patients are sedated heavily towards the end because otherwise they will choke to death isolated in a sterilized room with no relatives there to visit and say hi or just be there.

    If comorbidity is as low as 50 percent that's a lot of people with basically just weakened immune defense because of age that had otherwise been healthy.

    The papers I linked to are from 2016 and 2018.
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #98 on: March 17, 2020, 14:06 »
    Just found out that my work while a long way from the frontline, is going to have to stay open if/when we have a 14 day lockdown.

    1st day at the Hospital that we noticed big changes, not where I work but we are there working with Patients. Non essential departments are closing, ortho ops not going ahead.

    Very different to 24 hours ago
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  • Of course, if this turns out someday to be the industry standard integrated handlebar-computer-braking solution then I'll eat my kevlar-reinforced aerodynamic hat.

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #99 on: March 17, 2020, 14:07 »
    Back to the slightly less scary Olympics side of the debate...

    The only option there is 2021 then 3 years before the next.
    4 years is a non starter. Imagine if London 2012 had to wait until 2016.
    Get this wrong and there may never be another Olympics.


    Hi MV not sure that I get why is 4 years a non starter? 

    I mean it's about as far from ideal as possible; and gives the Japanese government 4 years to carry the infrastructure debt; before any ticket returns etc.  But when you look at London there would have been no issue with not putting up the temporary structures and simply somewhat perversely using the other stadia in a post Games usage pattern in advance of the Games.

    My worry is that no one is quite sure that the essential and now much impacted event pre-qualifying etc will even be viable in Q1 or Q2 2021; and another enforced delay might be terminal?
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #100 on: March 17, 2020, 14:09 »
    Word is Olympics in 2 years if cancelled ie 2022. Commonwealth games probably loose out
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #101 on: March 17, 2020, 14:40 »
    Interesting view from the ground. The first few minutes are telling.

    SOCIAL ISOLATION CYCLING


    Quote
    Just a few days before the Coronavirus Lockdown riding through TIMES SQUARE, NEW YORK. Not sure why people are still out crowding restaurants and bars. I hope you all are practicing social isolation/ quarantine

    -----------------

    Then this...

    https://twitter.com/Vaughters/status/1239927810849832961
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  • « Last Edit: March 17, 2020, 14:58 by Drummer Boy »

    Mellow Velo

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #102 on: March 17, 2020, 16:01 »
    Back to the slightly less scary Olympics side of the debate...

    Hi MV not sure that I get why is 4 years a non starter? 



     It's simply too long to maintain all of the facilities, especially when many sites are usually designated to future urban projects/developments.
     At least, that's what I am assuming, given the Tokyo Bay Zone, is said to be: designed to serve as a “model for innovative urban development.”

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  • "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #103 on: March 17, 2020, 16:06 »
    so far Bach seems to see no reason to postpone the Games at all

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  • Kiwirider

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #104 on: March 17, 2020, 17:21 »
    In addition it is not at all a quiet way to die. Patients are sedated heavily towards the end because otherwise they will choke to death isolated in a sterilized room with no relatives there to visit and say hi or just be there.
    What you have described is pretty much how a couple of my grandparents died as a result of pneumonia ... so, as always with all due respect to the loss of the individuals involved, this is a relatively normal part of our whole process of life and death.
    My experience is that the sweet and peaceful image of death is much more a part of the movies than real life ...


    If comorbidity is as low as 50 percent that's a lot of people with basically just weakened immune defense because of age that had otherwise been healthy.

    The comorbidity for those factors that I listed is 50% - not the total comorbidity for pre-existing conditions.

    According to a study of 73,000 Chinese cases, only 0.9% of deaths had no pre-existing condition ... Not sure about you, but to me, that's a pretty clear indication that you need to already be compromised to have any real concern ...

    As for the comments on Italian health care spending - a very quick look shows this from the OECD (and I acknowledge the age of the document, but I am not invested strongly enough in the argument to spend the time needed to search out the latest data):
    https://www.oecd.org/els/health-systems/Country-Note-ITALY-OECD-Health-Statistics-2015.pdf

    And something that I hate doing even more is to use Wikipedia (but same lack of investment in the case as above), but if you sort by per capita amounts, you'll see that Italy is basically the cusp/transition point between OECD/first world and less developed countries in terms of its health spend per capita. Not a good look with an age pyramid that shows a large older cohort ...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_total_health_expenditure_per_capita
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  • t-72

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #105 on: March 17, 2020, 22:55 »
    For those that can read *se Swedish (actually it is about Finland):


    For the rest, this is about the way that the Finnish are usually caricatured in film and literature. Finnish TV-drama used to be a weekly screening when I grew up and it was mostly small groups lost in the woods finding a sauna and a few bottles of vodka so they they could sit down and be properly melancholic  ;)

    Anyway, an attempt at translating it:
    "Finnish authorities requests that citizens stay away from other people".

    The comment:
    "And now,  bastards, you are about to see quarantine that really works.
    WE WERE BORN FOR THIS!"

     :D
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #106 on: March 17, 2020, 23:11 »
    "Finnish authorities requests that citizens stay away from other people".
    Parties in ... well, not in the streets of Helsinki.

    Parties by every Finn separately, in their own homes. :lol
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #107 on: March 18, 2020, 02:29 »
    I returned to the super market this afternoon. It was actually a pleasant surprise to see much of the store completely restocked with fresh meat and produce, all displayed on recently-well cleaned shelves. They were still very much in the process of restocking parts of the frozen food section, and cleaning materials along with paper goods were still nowhere to be found. But it was encouraging to see that desperate shoppers hadn't ruined the supply chain (yet).

    The crowds were about what I would normally expect for a Tuesday afternoon, and everyone seemed very relaxed and chilled out. Hopefully this means that the first wave of hysterical shopping was a one-and-done ordeal.

    But now I see that New York City is considering a "Shelter-in place" order, much like what San Francisco has already adopted. Personally, I have a serious problem with such policies.

    Under the strict public health measure, all non-essential businesses would be shut down. That means only police and fire departments, hospitals, grocery stores, pharmacies and perhaps gas stations, banks and laundromats would remain open.

    Quote
    “It’s taking some of the rules we’re encouraging people to follow now making them tighter and reducing the workforce greatly and reducing travel greatly,” Mayor Bill de Blasio said, warning that food service and retail could be shut down.

    Folks would need to have a reason to be outside that would be deemed “essential” — like picking up groceries or medicine. Only essential workers would be allowed to move about.

    In San Francisco, leaving the house for exercise such as walking, hiking or running, is allowed — as long as they remain six feet away from people who don’t live with them. The mayor didn’t specify whether that would be the case in the Big Apple, but did say that activities like Little League would be “gone.”

    Also in San Francisco, anyone in violation of the order could be charged with a misdemeanor.

    It’s not clear whether New York will follow suit, but de Blasio did say that the [police] NYPD would be deployed in the streets for enforcement, as would, perhaps, the [fire dept] FDNY.

    Quote
    De Blasio also didn’t rule out travel out of the city being banned.  :S
    I've no idea how that would even be legal. It's just mind-boggling to think how quickly, and with such apparent ease, that a police state could be put in place.

    Edit:
    More local news just in:

    The school year has just gone from a two-week hiatus to termination. What was supposed to be Spring Break has become the end of the semester. That will reek havoc with all the high school seniors as far as final grades, sports records, proms and graduations go.

    For everyone else it's probably party time.  :party

    I despised high school as a teen. Something like this would've been like a gift from God.
    Maybe it's a blessing in disguise for teachers as well. If they still get paid, they may just end up with a nice six-month break before the fall semester begins.

    I've no idea how this is all going to shake out. So many unknowns; so many variables; so many implications.
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  • « Last Edit: March 18, 2020, 02:39 by Drummer Boy »

    Kiwirider

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #108 on: March 18, 2020, 03:30 »
    But it was encouraging to see that desperate shoppers hadn't ruined the supply chain (yet).
    The thing that I find interesting is that the break in the chain comes from both irrational and rational behaviours.

    The irrational bits are the obvious ... the King & Queen of Loo Rolls and Hand Sanitiser ...

    The rational bit is the people who are not panicked, but who recognise the impacts of those who are on the supply chain and on essential goods. They make a rational decision to stock up while they can ... which further depletes and strains the system ...


    The crowds were about what I would normally expect for a Tuesday afternoon, and everyone seemed very relaxed and chilled out. Hopefully this means that the first wave of hysterical shopping was a one-and-done ordeal.
    I share your hope ... but do think that there will be another threshold.

    It may be passing a total number of local/national cases or deaths or some time marker.

    Or it may be a government action. I had expected to see that trigger from the states of emergency declared in ON, AB and BC recently - but thankfully was wrong.

    I don't think that it will be anything outside the borders - other than say something like one million cases globally. The pandemic seems to have created a really high level of local focus in most people, so that what happens overseas is "other people" - unless travel brings their impacts close to home.

    On the flip side, I hope that the longer that we all go without impact in our immediate circles will get more and more people developing a sense of perspective.



    The school year has just gone from a two-week hiatus to termination. What was supposed to be Spring Break has become the end of the semester. That will reek havoc with all the high school seniors as far as final grades, sports records, proms and graduations go.
    Same thing has happened in AB and BC - but not in ON and QC yet.

    Person I was talking to today has a real issue as she has a special needs son. He can be home schooled (and apparently is for part of each week anyhow), but finding suitable curricula is really hard.
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #109 on: March 18, 2020, 07:03 »
    A second patient in Wales has died from coronavirus, it has been confirmed.

    The 96-year-old patient was being treated..........


    Age not a factor, then. :S
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #110 on: March 18, 2020, 08:51 »
    Age is a factor so is previous medical conditions, but not always.

    But being over 50 - lower immunity add to that being sick

    Not officially yet but France , Seattle and NYC have seen very fit 30-40 year old with severe symptoms only link anti inflammatory drugs

    Quiet a few very healthy Drs and Nurses are getting very sick FWIW
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #111 on: March 18, 2020, 12:42 »
     The UCI are extending the season, initially to November 1st and looking to overlap races.

    https://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/racing/uci-extends-cycling-season-451978

     I think they could easily go a couple of weeks further into November before there's much chance of the weather matching that at the early stages of the season.
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #112 on: March 18, 2020, 12:53 »
    I think they could easily go a couple of weeks further into November before there's much chance of the weather matching that at the early stages of the season.

    yeah, I don't think anyone would mind an edition of Paris-Roubaix in early December even ;D
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #114 on: March 18, 2020, 13:51 »
    Age has been a factor so far now it seems that the virus is more and more affecting younger people. In Belgium, on 15 March the majority of the women infected ranged between 40 and 44 and men between 45 and 49. Also we had eleven babies or 4- year old kids infected. So younger people are not immune to the virus. I think they will survive but they are having a real bad time.

    https://www.dhnet.be/actu/belgique/coronavirus-en-belgique-11-des-886-cas-sont-des-bebes-ou-enfants-de-moins-de-4-ans-la-tranche-d-age-la-plus-touchee-se-situe-entre-45-et-49-ans-5e6e6becf20d5a29c66e491d

    The case of Camille, 31 years old, living in Brussels, has upset many of us. She had no health issues prior to getting the virus and regularly did sport. She is now bedridden, with breathing complication and constantly gasping. At first she felt pain in the bowels like gastro-enteritis. Then four days later, headaches, extreme fatigue, stretched back and fever. Two days later, she could no longer prepare a meal as she was short of breath and could no longer move. She collapsed. "When you are lying down on the ground, you know that coronavirus is more than a flu". A special ambulance took her (as she was quarantined).

    https://www.facebook.com/ka.mille.94/posts/10219296927106929

    Pretty sure that Camille is going to survive but nobody wants to live what she's living. That's why she's encouraging us to be careful (wear gloves, masks, or a scarf).   :cool
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  • "Paris-Roubaix is the biggest cycling race in the world, bigger than the Tour de France, bigger than any other bike race" (Sir Bradley Wiggins)

    Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #115 on: March 18, 2020, 15:02 »
    The case of Camille, 31 years old, living in Brussels, has upset many of us.

    Understandably, but with such severe symptoms and reactions, I have to wonder of she's battling other health issues as well. Her condition does not sound consistent with anything else I've read about.

    As far as young children: I don't think there's any question that they are susceptible to contracting the virus, but the overall consensus is that symptoms will typically be very mild, if present at all. Were that to change, however, then we'd be looking at a much more concerning global trend.
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #116 on: March 18, 2020, 15:08 »
    I don't think that it will be anything outside the borders -

    Speaking of which:

    They've just closed the borders between Canada and the U.S. for travelers.

    As far as I know, this does not apply to goods and services

    That's a news headline I never imagined seeing in my lifetime.

     *ca   :sick  :wut  :disapointed *usa
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #117 on: March 19, 2020, 01:59 »
    There's a shift in the narrative taking place, and it's quite concerning.

    As more data emerges, the younger generation appears to be at greater risk than previously believed. This is significant, and not something to be dismissed too easily. If anything, alarm bells should be going off. Initially, it appeared that the youth were not at any great risk, and that the main concern was their ability to spread it to other, more vulnerable, members of society.

    But now there are reports of permanent lung damage being sustained, and other damaging effects of the virus on pre-teens, teens, and those in their early twenties. This is quite a contrast to what we were being told only a few days ago.

    Everything is moving so quickly that it will likely take a bit more time to sort this all out, but it's the most frightening development I've seen since the pandemic set in, and the data seems to be moving in that direction.

    Speaking of...
    Spring Break seems to be in full swing in my favorite state of Florida, and there's no shortage of dumb college kids gathering for drunken revelry, with zero concern for themselves or others. They would appear to be graduates of Tide Pod U. after making statements such as, "Ya' know, if I get corona, I get corona."

    They still probably haven't been told that it's not a lifetime supply of Mexican beer. I just don't understand why the local governments are allowing this (besides the obvious profit motive). But the Florida governor should've stepped in and just said No. Now these mentally challenged morons are going to scatter back home across the country, bringing with them god-only-knows what.

    If I were on the receiving end of that, as governor of their destination state, I would impose a mandatory 4-week quarantine in the least hospitable warehouse I could find. Bologna sandwiches and water to soothe their hunger pangs, along with all the comforts of sleeping on a concrete floor.
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  • just some guy

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    Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #119 on: March 19, 2020, 14:00 »
    I was able to sleep in much later than usual today, but I'm not sure what I'm waking up to.

    The warnings are becoming more dire. Some local hospitals are expecting to be at capacity by this weekend.

    40% of patients so far are 20 to 54-years-old.

    The veneer is slowly slipping from newscasters as some of them are no longer pretending that this won't be terrible. They don't want to create panic, but they seem to be moving on from the idea that this requires anything less than a very serious response. There's less and less room for niceties and formalities.

    I'll admit that I wasn't quite expecting this. I think it's still too early to know just how bad it may or may not get, but the next five days or so are going to be somewhat grim and very telling. If the virus turns out to be much more dangerous than we were originally led to believe, then it may be too late by the time we come to terms with that. Too late in terms of proper containment, that is.

    The U.S. may very soon become the next epicenter. I guess we'll find out which country has the most dumb people, too. I would think that we could secure that title with ease, I'm just wondering if we'll get a chance to prove it to the world. 
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