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Joelsim

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
« Reply #210 on: March 25, 2020, 17:46 »
About 53% of businesses in Cardiff city centre fear the coronavirus outbreak will lead to their permanent closure, a survey has found.

Completely depends on the level of support and the duration of everything. But, not good news at all.
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #211 on: March 25, 2020, 20:00 »
    It appears that Sweden is adopting a more laissez-faire attitude towards the virus? :slow

    Lockdown can wait: Sweden goes its own way

    Quote
    Stockholm (AFP) - While most of Europe is firmly locked down in a bid to curb the spread of COVID-19, Sweden is taking a softer line, keeping primary schools, restaurants and bars open and even encouraging people to go outside for a nip of air.

    This stands in stark contrast to the urgent tone elsewhere and has sparked heated debate whether Sweden is really doing the right thing.

    "We cannot allow the human desperation in Wuhan and Bergamo to be repeated in Sweden. That would be a gamble that violates society's most fundamental principle: that every person has an inherent value," the editor-in-chief of Sweden's biggest newspaper, Dagens Nyheter, wrote on Sunday, calling for either tougher measures or more widespread coronavirus testing.
    Quote
    - 'Take reponsibility' -

    Prime Minister Stefan Lofven, in a televised speech on Sunday, urged people to "take responsibility" and follow the government's recommendations.

    Those include working from home if you can, staying home if you feel sick, practice social distancing, and stay home if you belong to a risk group or are over the age of 70.

    Gatherings of more than 500 people have been banned -- compared to more than two people in Britain and Germany -- and the government has advised secondary schools and universities to close their facilities and conduct classes online.

    On Tuesday, the government announced that restaurants and bars would only be allowed to provide table service to avoid crowding but stopped short of actually closing them.

    Quote
    - Experts rule -

    Grilled by media about their apparently relaxed response to the pandemic, Swedish politicians respond that the government will take its cue from experts at the country's Public Health Agency.

    The agency has yet to call for stricter measures, arguing that the elderly should stay home, not children.

    "As soon as the Public Health Agency requests that the government make a decision, we will do it this quickly," Health Minister Lena Hallengren, snapping her fingers, said earlier this month.
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #212 on: March 25, 2020, 20:19 »
    Ahh time for the Stockholm correspondent.

    1st thing Swedes trust their Government, so when they say work from home don't go to your holiday house, leave grand mothers alone. They do it.

    Most Swedes don't really like others, if they don't know you from growing up or work with then you are dead to them.

    2 things have caused the increase, returns from ski holidays and in many of the new Swedish living in multi generation housing. So I think 5 of the deaths were from Somalia who socialise on a whole different way to the ice cold Swedes.

    Also they are still waiting for the trigger, basically human's will only do what they are told for a period of time, even the good Swedes. So we are getting closer to a lock down. But not yet.

    The hospital I work with has 30 CoVid-19 patients ready for 50 more before it gets too much.

    My guess is Easter with be the 2 week lock down. School holidays are planned as are trips sking and to the holiday house. They will not want city folks taking CoVid-19 to the country as the Hospital system will not cope
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #213 on: March 25, 2020, 20:22 »
    Ahh time for the Stockholm correspondent.

    That's where you are? How timely!  :)


    Quote
    Most Swedes don't really like others

    Duly noted!  :D

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  • just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #214 on: March 25, 2020, 20:25 »
    Hehe I am Australian though so it is just all wrong for me
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #215 on: March 25, 2020, 20:38 »
    Sweden are where the UK was a week or two ago, rather than doing anything different.
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #216 on: March 25, 2020, 20:41 »
    I was out doing some light shopping earlier and there are still sections of the stores that are totally bare.

    And yet, as I've mentioned before, there seems to be a palpable calm over everything and everyone. People seem to be more polite and considerate of one another. It's most curious. And it is surprisingly reassuring.

    Also, it looks like the government is going deliver on their stimulus package, which will reduce a lot of the anxiety that many are experiencing.

    Most individuals below a certain level of salary are to receive $1,200, plus $500 for each child. This may very well be followed another payment of the same amount in a matter of weeks.

    On top of that, they're guaranteeing most workers unemployment coverage equivalent to what they had been earning, for up to four months. Small businesses can also access interest-free loans, with 18 months to pay it back, to cover various operating expenses. That way both sides win: the employer can keep the business alive, while the workers still get paid until some sense of normalcy returns.

    There are always some details to be hammered out, but everyone agrees that urgency is of the utmost importance, and it seems that they're just about to get this rolling.

    It still amazes me that the government can magically make $2 trillion appear when they need it.  :S

    In the meantime, they've forbidden landlords from evicting anyone, and utility companies from shutting anyone off.
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #217 on: March 25, 2020, 20:49 »
    Sweden are where the UK was a week or two ago, rather than doing anything different.

    Not sure that they are as they had infection pretty much at the same time. Their graphs just look...............different.
    Talking of which, it is starting to look as if the measures in Italy are finally having some effect on their upward curve.
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    just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #218 on: March 25, 2020, 20:58 »
    Maybe Joel. There has been over 24 000 tests done though. Which maybe not huge number but a little over 9 million people live in Sweden so not too bad
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #219 on: March 25, 2020, 21:02 »
    I’m guessing they are less densely populated than where most of the cases are happening in the UK, so probably won’t see the same speed of growth.
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #220 on: March 25, 2020, 23:20 »
    I’m guessing they are less densely populated than where most of the cases are happening in the UK, so probably won’t see the same speed of growth.
    I'd say! Sweden is basically empty:
    It has ~1/3 the population density of Scotland.
    Not the UK[1], Scotland. The part of the UK that is the emptiest.
    And Sweden is yet three times emptier. :)
     1. it has less than 1/11 compared to the whole UK, and less than 1/18 compared to England. England: 424.3/m², UK: 270/m², Scotland: 67.5/m², Sweden: 23/m²
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #221 on: March 26, 2020, 07:32 »
    does it matter though, if 85% live in urban areas anyway?
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    Mellow Velo

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #222 on: March 26, 2020, 07:38 »
     Where I live isn't densely populated and borders onto the least populated county in Wales, yet my area is now a virus hot spot and described as having: 'the pattern is the same seen in Italy'.....


    Wimbledon now considering postponing or cancelling, with a decision expected next week.
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  • « Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 07:54 by Mellow Velo »

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #223 on: March 26, 2020, 09:51 »
    Wimbledon now considering postponing or cancelling, with a decision expected next week.

    It would seem to be the perfect "social distancing" sport, though.

    They've even got a divider between the players to remind them not to get too close!

    Like golf, the players not only expect, but demand silence from the crowd when it suits them, so why not just give them what they want? With zero interruptions, it could be an exercise in pure self-indulgence.

    I know that would never happen, but you have to wonder what television ratings would be like after so much isolation taking place across the globe. Might they have record numbers for viewership?

    I don't watch basketball, but I was hoping to see a game or two with no crowds. I think it would've been fascinating to see how the players interacted under the circumstances, and to be able to hear the game in a unique way without all the crowd noise.

    Of course I was also hoping that the collection of arrogant and entitled millionaires would get to experience the game without the fan adulation, as a stark reminder of just how meaningless it all is, but alas.

    On a different note...

    I am very curious to see if the UFC manages to pull off the upcoming bout between Khabib Nurmagomedov and Tony Ferguson for what would be UFC 249 on April 18. If they can, it will be a massive pay-per-view success, perhaps their greatest to date—live audience or not. UFC president Dana White has vowed that the match-up will happen, one way or another. This, too, would be fascinating to see and hear without a live crowd. It would be most odd, but fascinating.

    For those unaware, it's perhaps one of the greatest sporting events never to have taken place. Five years in the making, this fight has been cancelled four times now in the past due to mostly last-minute injury or illness from one of the two competitors. One the most highly anticipated contests in the history of the sport, it will pit the undefeated (28-0) lightweight champion Nurmagomedov against the enigmatic (25-3) Ferguson, thought to be the only man alive able to defeat him.

    For martial arts enthusiasts, it's the fight that simply must take place, but one that fate has deemed otherwise. As it stands, the UFC is insisting that the event, originally scheduled to take place in Brooklyn, NY, will go ahead as planned but in a yet-to-be-revealed location. They all have also stated that it will be a "closed door" event.

    If anyone can pull this off successfully, it's Dana White and the UFC. And I have full confidence that they will. What I'm most curious about at this point is how they will take advantage of not having a live audience. If they're clever enough, they could really explore the possibility of an unprecedented audio experience, as well as multiple camera angles simply not available to them when the line-of-sight of the audience has to be taken into consideration.

    When you don't have to worry about blocking anyone's view, and there's no roar of the crowd, the result could be something truly unique in the history of televised sport, and I'm eager to learn how they might augment that viewing experience. With a massive global audience tuning in, it could be one for the ages: The Dagestani vs the Mexican-American.



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  • « Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 10:05 by Drummer Boy »

    just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #224 on: March 26, 2020, 10:10 »
    does it matter though, if 85% live in urban areas anyway?

    That is it Search

    4 city areas

    Stockholm Malmo Göteborg and Uppsala

    Take away those population and areas and Sweden's population is very small. Hence why Easter is key here. They need to stop city folk going country
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #225 on: March 26, 2020, 16:50 »
    Things are ramping up especially in Stockholm.

    The hospital I work with now has 4 wards open for CoVid-19 patients. 24 hours after there was 1.

    I was up there today in a ward above to CoVid-19 one, saw 2 patients being transported. Saw lots of beds in corridors waiting for patients.

    All a bit sobering tbh

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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #226 on: March 26, 2020, 18:34 »
    Things are ramping up especially in Stockholm.

    Wow, we've got our own embedded reporter on the front lines. Will be very interested to learn how things develop there.

    Stay safe and healthy, jsg!
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #227 on: March 26, 2020, 19:04 »
    Not front lines more practice squad reserve

    Unfortunately people still break bones etc and that's when I get called up.

    But as waited for a lift a CoVid-19 patient came past and also waited for the lift. The Gentleman I am I let the older lady and her nurse ride up on their own and I got another lift. :D

    The Nurse smiled at me as she went past in all her PPE. What a hero.
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #228 on: March 26, 2020, 19:55 »
    Not front lines more practice squad reserve

    Unfortunately people still break bones etc and that's when I get called up.

    But as waited for a lift a CoVid-19 patient came past and also waited for the lift. The Gentleman I am I let the older lady and her nurse ride up on their own and I got another lift. :D

    The Nurse smiled at me as she went past in all her PPE. What a hero.

    Just some nurse.

    Did you get her number? Hero indeed as they always are. Claps at the door in 5 mins here for our wonderful NHS people.
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #229 on: March 26, 2020, 20:58 »
     USA have gone top of the Covid league, with more cases reported today, than Italy and Spain combined.
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #231 on: March 26, 2020, 21:19 »
    USA have gone top of the Covid league, with more cases reported today, than Italy and Spain combined.

    I suspect the thickoes, of which there are many, will still support the orange twit.

    It’s always the same in the UK, the people who vote for the tyrants have the least to gain and the most to lose, yet they still do it. I despair.

    Punch yourself in the face here.
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #232 on: March 26, 2020, 21:52 »
    I suspect the thickoes, of which there are many, will still support the orange twit.

    It’s always the same in the UK, the people who vote for the tyrants have the least to gain and the most to lose, yet they still do it. I despair.

    Punch yourself in the face here.

    Don't forget he reckons he'll have the virus in lockdown by Easter. #godcomplex
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #233 on: March 26, 2020, 22:02 »
    he may realize that easter is a tad too early though. He should better save the world (well, America) a bit closer to the elections.
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #234 on: March 26, 2020, 23:42 »
    USA have gone top of the Covid league, with more cases reported today, than Italy and Spain combined.

    *usa :win *usa :win *usa :win *usa :win *usa :win

    Without the Olympics, we'll take what we can get!
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  • Kiwirider

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #235 on: March 27, 2020, 00:17 »
    Sampling results from Canada as of today ...

    And if someone is enough of a stats whizz kid to be able to work out the exact sample implications, that'd be awesome ...
    For now, I'll do a 1:1 - if we get 10% in the sample, that means we get 10% in the total population -  which I know isn't necessarily right. So, if we have any epidemiologists out there - my apologies and please set me right with the data!

    From the Public Health Agency Canada website:

    Total positive - 3731 - note: includes recovered cases and deaths ... and, because of how Quebec counts positives, includes probable but not confirmed by second test
    Total negative - 142161
    Total deaths - 39

    (There are about 12000 tests waiting for results ... which may or may not shift the results ...)

    Based on that:
    disease incidence in the population - 2.55%

    Based on the stated likelihood of hospitalisation (6%) and ending up in ICU (2% - which is part of the 6%), that means:
    hospitalised cases - 0.15% of the population (note: based on positive cases to date - 223 hospitalisations)
    ICU cases - 0.05% of the population  (note: based on positive cases to date - 75 ICU hospitalisations)

    current mortality rate relative to positive cases - 1%

    If we extrapolated these proportions to all of Canada getting covid in one flu season/winter - with our population of 34m - that'd mean:
    infected - 867,000
    hospitalised - 51,000
    ICU - 17,000
    deaths - 8670

    Apparently we have a total of about 5000 ICU beds across the country ...

    Not sure what the various probabilistic models are for infection penetration (ie., will 2% or 75% of the population be infected and over what time horizon), so don't know how the bed capacity truly compares to the worst case ...

    And to compare to the current flu season (approx numbers):
    infected - 40101
    hospitalisations - 1900 normal; 260 ICU - most of which are pediatric
    deaths - 40 (as far as I can see, which seems low as PHAC say that the average is 500 - 1500 deaths)

    Anyhow, I thought that, if nothing else, it's an interesting piece of maths ... (which, sadly, if I share with people around where I live, I get slammed as a "covid denier" or for "recklessly encouraging people to stop social distancing" ... sigh ...) Not trying to push any point or tell any story ... just to show a picture of the state of play ...
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  • « Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 01:10 by Kiwirider »

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #236 on: March 27, 2020, 01:10 »
    Daily update from West Australia

    we have a bit of a standoff with some cruise ships at the moment.    While in various places, cruise ships cancelled cruises etc ... a lot of the boats came here because Australia didnt quarantine/still allowed cruises.   

    So even after the Diamond Princess fiasco, we still have a LOT of people who got on cruises in early March :fp    and now there are ports everywhere who wont take them, and they are stuck.

    In addition we had a situation where a cruise ship was allowed to dock last week in Sydney.  No health checks were done, the captain said 'no one is sick' and that was enough ... so all the passengers went home, and now it turns out that 200 or 300 odd of them had Covid19, and it was spread everywhere.

    So we have 3 boats sitting off the coast.   
    1 - left from here 10 days ago, is full of Australians and will be allowed to dock.  The West Aussies will be placed in quarantine on Rottnest Island (holiday island just off hte coast of WA, owned by govt and cleared of tourists to be used for quarantine)    Australians from other states will be flown straight home to self isolate

    2 - a boat with mostly German passengers who has 7 passengers +ve with Corona Virus.  They have taken off 2 passengers for emergency medical treatment, but otherwise passengers are not allowed to depart.    Today they have finally worked out a deal with the German Govt to charter a flight home for these passengers ... but its tough when no one wants anything to do with them

    3 - is a round-the-world cruise commenced in January - docked here a few days ago to refuel and resupply.  Govt said no one can get off, but you can refuel etc.  They did that, and said they were going on ....  but now they are not allowed to dock in Dubai or anywhere else, and are unsure if they will be able to get provisions.  It is very unclear whether or not there are sick people on the boat, but they obviously dont want to take the chance that there are, and take 3 weeks to get back to the Europe/UK where they left from - even if they can resupply, whcih isnt guaranteed.    But WA doesnt want them either ... so they are just sitting there waiting for someone to come up with a solution.

    This brings out the absolute worst in people though.  You read hte comments on News articles and it is so depressing ... that so many would deny medical treatment or help to people just because they arent from here so 'not our probelm'.  :(   

    Anyway - they are finally closing schools next week ... so that is a plus.
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  • just some guy

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    just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #238 on: March 27, 2020, 06:56 »
    I  had a discussion at work with someone.

    That were saying it a flu

    I disagree.... But the point of the story is

    Say for argument we say it is.

    Stats say that 6 people die every season.

    So I said 6 people is 6 beers, at  BBQ you over 5 hours drink 6 beers. Have a good night wake up a little down and tired but ok ish.

    Now I  give you 6 beers but you have 5 min to drink them and see what happens.

    The guy maybe not the smartest looked at me and said am I the health system and a light bulb went off.

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #239 on: March 27, 2020, 08:09 »
    Total positive - 3731 - note: includes recovered cases and deaths ... and, because of how Quebec counts positives, includes probable but not confirmed by second test
    Total negative - 142161
    Total deaths - 39

    (There are about 12000 tests waiting for results ... which may or may not shift the results ...)

    Based on that:
    disease incidence in the population - 2.55%

    as you mention yourself though, there are "second tests". And third. And fourth, all for the same person. Sometimes every couple of days for people working in healthcare. So the numbers can not transfered 1:1 to get a full image of the population, I'd say.

    The thing with the ICU capacity is also, how many of those are available, and how far can it be extended. In Italy for example, in this time of the year ~90% are/were taken anyway by other patients, which probably had a huge influence on the outcome. I don't know what it's like elsewhere.
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