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just some guy

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
« Reply #240 on: March 27, 2020, 08:34 »
Germany is taking Italian CoVid-19 patients 47 at the moment
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  • Of course, if this turns out someday to be the industry standard integrated handlebar-computer-braking solution then I'll eat my kevlar-reinforced aerodynamic hat.

    Larri Nov 12, 2014

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #241 on: March 27, 2020, 09:13 »
    Germany is taking Italian CoVid-19 patients 47 at the moment
    yeah, some from France as well. We still have plenty of free capacities at the moment

    https://divi.de/register/kartenansicht

    (most hospitals are not sending over the data, so the numbers are not accurate, but you can get an idea from the map on the right, showing the free ICU beds per federal state from those hospitals which do)
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  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #242 on: March 27, 2020, 11:21 »
    Boris Johnson has CoVid-19 says Swedish news
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #243 on: March 27, 2020, 11:24 »
    Boris Johnson has CoVid-19 says Swedish news

    Damn, you were fast on the draw there, jsg. This story is just breaking, and you got the message out even before Boris!

    https://twitter.com/BBCBreaking/status/1243497891978756096

    https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1243496858095411200
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #244 on: March 27, 2020, 11:28 »
    Boris Johnson has CoVid-19 says Swedish news

    That would be the guy who has been basically telling us to do what I say, not what I do?
    Hardly surprising then.
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  • "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.

    Kiwirider

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #245 on: March 27, 2020, 11:46 »
    as you mention yourself though, there are "second tests". And third. And fourth, all for the same person. Sometimes every couple of days for people working in healthcare. So the numbers can not transfered 1:1 to get a full image of the population, I'd say.


    Those are second test results - as second test is needed to confirm a case in Canada (except QC, where first test is enough - and then they remove numbers if the second is negative).

    So any variance from population will be a combination of:
    - asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic people not testing - which, since day 1, has been cited by WHO etc as likely understating the infection rate and overstating the treatment/fatality rate
    - statistical sampling theory - as I say, the maths that is beyond me ...  :S :S

    And I remember seeing somewhere that the ICU beds are actually significantly less full than normal at this time of year - would quote the source if I could, but suffice to say that I avoid media for any of this and look to the government agencies only - which may in part tie in to the flu numbers?
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #246 on: March 27, 2020, 11:52 »
    Yes, there are more beds than at flu time of year.
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #247 on: March 27, 2020, 12:16 »
    Those are second test results - as second test is needed to confirm a case in Canada (except QC, where first test is enough - and then they remove numbers if the second is negative).

    okay, didn't hear about that. In most other countries all tests just seem to be aggregated, no matter if there are one or ten of them for a single person.
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  • Kiwirider

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #248 on: March 27, 2020, 12:20 »
    okay, didn't hear about that. In most other countries all tests just seem to be aggregated, no matter if there are one or ten of them for a single person.

    One of those "fun" differences between countries that makes it hard for Joe Public to get a good picture of what's going on ... and sadly allows the misinformation that spreads on FB and the like to take hold.

    On that note, latest one that I saw is someone confidently stating how rapidly the virus is mutating ...
    ... contrast that to this article in the Washington Post - which quotes, among other people, the scientists who were part of the disease naming (which is more than just choosing a name)

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/the-coronavirus-isnt-mutating-quickly-suggesting-a-vaccine-would-offer-lasting-protection/2020/03/24/406522d6-6dfd-11ea-b148-e4ce3fbd85b5_story.html
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #249 on: March 27, 2020, 12:35 »
    One of those "fun" differences between countries that makes it hard for Joe Public to get a good picture of what's going on ... and sadly allows the misinformation that spreads on FB and the like to take hold.

    I wouldn't call it all "misinformation", but there's always more than one side of it, sure. Last week for example there were those reports about Chloroquine being the wonder drug everyone was waiting for - and now, probably after selling millions of doses worldwide, there are other reports saying that it's in fact completely useless.

    At the moment there's massive power and influence in the hands of very few people, which is a very dangerous situation of course. For sure there's reason to be sceptical, no one of us knows whether they are always aiming for good, ot if there's also personal interest in whatever way involved.
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #250 on: March 27, 2020, 13:28 »
    Sweden have changed rules a little bit still free. No more than 50 people together. But only being asked to stay home no lockdown yet.

    All the social distancing stuff ofc
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #251 on: March 27, 2020, 13:40 »
    Indefinite sporting lockdown then? Not going to happen as the BBC report that here in the uk, the cracks are already beginning to show:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52063085

    Picking up on one line that also relates to pro cycling:

    What the Premier League is reliant on is the goodwill of broadcasters and sponsors.

    Also. The England and Wales Cricket Board could install coronavirus checkpoints and isolation units at grounds in order to resume the game behind closed doors.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/52063330
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  • Archieboy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #252 on: March 27, 2020, 22:05 »
    Boris Johnson has CoVid-19 says Swedish news

    Apparently he has been put on one of them new Dyson ventilators and is picking up nicely
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #253 on: March 28, 2020, 04:36 »
    This is a little too close to home!  :o

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8161191/DOCTOR-arrested-deliberately-coughing-workers-ignoring-social-distancing.html

    Quote
    Connecticut DOCTOR is arrested for deliberately coughing on his co-workers and ignoring social distancing while treating patients during coronavirus pandemic

     - Dr Cory Edgar, an assistant professor of orthopedic surgery at UConn Health, was arrested and charged with breach of peace on Thursday morning.

     - He allegedly coughed on two co-workers at the health center 'in close proximity.'

     - Witnesses told police that  they believe Dr Edgar 'was purposely disregarding space and safety concerns.'
    Um, this is my hospital.  :S

    This is where I ended up for four days when I had a staph infection in my leg after my bike accident in 2018 (I never did get around to sharing that story). It's also where I'm currently on hold as a dental patient, awaiting a crown after having had a root canal. My final appointment was to have been April 2, but of course they've bumped all such procedures for the time being. And my father was just a patient there last weekend for some heart issues.

    I hadn't even heard about this story though!
    I'm not sure it even made the local news. :slow
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  • just some guy

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    Joelsim

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    just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #256 on: March 28, 2020, 17:11 »
    Yep Joel fluid is the word
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  • Echoes

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #257 on: March 28, 2020, 17:19 »
    I wouldn't call it all "misinformation", but there's always more than one side of it, sure. Last week for example there were those reports about Chloroquine being the wonder drug everyone was waiting for - and now, probably after selling millions of doses worldwide, there are other reports saying that it's in fact completely useless.

    I just heard an interview of Dr Éric Menat, a French GP. He argued that chloroquine (or hydroxychloroquine) is not a wonder drug indeed but in the state of knowledge that we currently have, it's still the best treatment you may give to the patients. If a researcher comes up with a better treatment, he would be open to it but for the moment, it would be the best solution. However he also points out to the fact that in France, chloroquine is only administered to hospitalised patients with heavy symptoms and though it's painful to say, for them, it's too late. That's maybe how some might come to the conclusion that it is useless, as you say. Chloroquine should be prescribed to patients in the early stage of the disease when the symptoms are still mild. That's when it can work. That's what Pr. Didier Raoult of Marseille is doing, running counter to what is done elsewhere in France. Raoult also seems to be the only one testing massively. There might be a huge schandal in France regarding chloroquine. First, the "Haut Conseil de la Santé publique" (Council for Public Healthcare) disregarded Raoult's work for several months and then, it seems that their chloroquine stock had been ... robbed, mysteriously... However there really seems to be evidence that chloroquine does work to some extent. The Nice mayor Christian Estrosi, the same one who refused to have the Paris-Nice final stage in his town and a close friend of former President Sarkozy's had contracted the virus and claims to have recovered thanks to chloroquine and the treatment by Pr. Raoult. Now Prince Albert II of Monaco is calling him for advice, it seems.
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  • "Paris-Roubaix is the biggest cycling race in the world, bigger than the Tour de France, bigger than any other bike race" (Sir Bradley Wiggins)

    Joelsim

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #258 on: March 28, 2020, 17:26 »
    Went out with Remco and Pauline F-P today.



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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #259 on: March 28, 2020, 17:36 »
    Trying to upload a photo on here is nigh on impossible. Either too big, when it isn't, or too full. Any help gratefully accepted.
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #260 on: March 28, 2020, 17:39 »
    A little read on Swedish model for CoVid-19

    In other words: nobody really knows.

    At least when this is all said and done, there will be some very interesting data for the experts to mull over and give a thorough review of.

    FWIW: I never knew Sweden was so sparsely populated. Judging by the previous comments in this thread, it sounds like Vermont to me.
    :slow

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  • just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #261 on: March 28, 2020, 17:42 »
    9 million maybe 10 now days about 4 million live in Stockholm 7th biggest Euro country land area.

    So yep all except for Stockholm lots of space
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  • Echoes

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #262 on: March 28, 2020, 17:51 »
    FWIW: I never knew Sweden was so sparsely populated. Judging by the previous comments in this thread, it sounds like Vermont to me.
    :slow

    Yeah it absolutely is. My aunt is living in Southern Sweden. She got married with a Swede. I visited her twice up there, in Båstad, very small place but which still has an ATP tennis tournament. It's a few miles away from Helsingborg and Elsinore, Denmark isn't far away either. What was immediately striking for us Belgians - Belgium is the second most densely populated country in Europe, to the Netherlands - is how sparse the traffic on the road is. Quite enjoyable, I have to say. I've never been to the Swedish major cities. So this is still very much the memory I have from my trips to Sweden. That's why my aunt refuses to come back to Belgium, only on some odd occasions, to see the family. :)
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #263 on: March 28, 2020, 19:01 »
    Trying to upload a photo on here is nigh on impossible. Either too big, when it isn't, or too full. Any help gratefully accepted.



    Hmmm. I used your same source code plus the "img" tag from Velorooms. Not sure why yours shows the photobucket watermark and mine doesn't though.

    Were you referring to this pic, or some other images?

    Edit:
    Actually, my html is slightly different from yours. If you quote my post you'll see the differences in code. I just right-clicked the "copy image address" from your source to get the link I used.
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #264 on: March 28, 2020, 20:53 »
     I am beginning to think that maybe the best statistical pointer we have is the case of the Diamond Princess.
    While it is of no use in determining the rate of spread etc, it should give us a reasonably accurate determination of the mortality rate, since we already know the specific number of infections.
     Given that the average age of those infected is high, the fact that there have only been ten deaths from over seven hundred cases, supports current reports claims that coronavirus is much less lethal than the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918-19.

     At the same time, it also supports claims that the number of actual infections is many times higher than those confirmed.
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #265 on: March 28, 2020, 20:55 »
    I am beginning to think that maybe the best statistical pointer we have is the  case of the Diamond Princess.
    While it is of no use in determining the rate of spread etc, it should give us a reasonably accurate determination of the mortality rate, since we already know the specific number of infections.
     Given that the average age of those infected is high, the fact that there have only been ten deaths from over seven hundred cases supports current reports claims that coronavirus is much less lethal than the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918-19.

     At the same time, it also supports claims that the number of actual infections is many times higher than those confirmed.

    You may be right there mate, given (I assume) that the demographic on that was fairly old, average age I suspect around 70.
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  • Archieboy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #266 on: March 28, 2020, 21:05 »
    You may be right there mate, given (I assume) that the demographic on that was fairly old, average age I suspect around 70.

    Thanks Joel, that's me brown bread then..
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #267 on: March 28, 2020, 21:18 »
    Thanks Joel, that's me brown bread then..

    It’d indicate that you only had a 10/700 chance of that Archie. Which is about the same as West Ham winning the World Cup.
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #268 on: March 29, 2020, 03:15 »
    If only someone had seen a pandemic like this coming.  :-x

    Event 201 - a global pandemic exercise

    October 18, 2019, New York, NY


    Quote
    The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation hosted Event 201, a high-level pandemic exercise on October 18, 2019, in New York, NY. '

    The exercise illustrated areas where public/private partnerships will be necessary during the response to a severe pandemic in order to diminish large-scale economic and societal consequences.

    Quote
    In recent years, the world has seen a growing number of epidemic events, amounting to approximately 200 events annually. These events are increasing, and they are disruptive to health, economies, and society. Managing these events already strains global capacity, even absent a pandemic threat. Experts agree that it is only a matter of time before one of these epidemics becomes global—a pandemic with potentially catastrophic consequences. A severe pandemic, which becomes “Event 201,” would require reliable cooperation among several industries, national governments, and key international institutions.


    So did just nobody pay attention to this?  :S






    After watching that video, really it's just academics being academics.
    What's most disturbing is just how quickly some of those geniuses jump to the tactic of, "We'll need to control, censor or shutdown the internet in order to remove 'Fake News' and reduce panic." As if doing so wouldn't create far more panic? How dumb are these intellectuals? They view humanity through such cynical lens, assuming we'll all be at each other's throats. I'm sure the lot of them never imagined Italians singing from their balconies in solidarity.

    Then, after all their number crunching and prognostications, they actually missed the timeline by half. At the end the speaker envisions a virus reaching most countries after six months. Pretty sure we got COVID-19 to that level in three.

    It seems that they just assembled a panel of people who weren't actually in a position to implement any of this. Like so many "committees" and "panels," in the end, it's literally all just talk.
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  • « Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 03:38 by Drummer Boy »

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #269 on: March 29, 2020, 09:13 »
    So did just nobody pay attention to this?  :S

    it was also one of the threats reported to the German Bundestag in 2013:

    https://dipbt.bundestag.de/dip21/btd/17/120/1712051.pdf (page 55 onwards)

    Those potential threats are classified in 5 groups though (I guess it's more or less the same in the US):

    a) very unlikely (once every 10.000 years)
    b) unlikely (once every 1.000 to 10.000 years)
    c) conditionally probable (once every 100 to 1.000 years)
    d) likely (once every 10 to 100 years)
    e) very likely (once every 10 years)

    "Pandemie durch einen Virus" was rated with a c). And to be honest, it's difficult to prepare for something, that may either happen tomorrow, or in 1000 years.
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