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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
« Reply #270 on: March 29, 2020, 10:59 »
Yep the CoVid-19 even occurring is I am not even sure the odds.

1 virus probably in bats infects another type of animal, it then combines with another virus to form CoVid-19, and then that 1 animal infects a human.

Well that is the latest theory.
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  • Of course, if this turns out someday to be the industry standard integrated handlebar-computer-braking solution then I'll eat my kevlar-reinforced aerodynamic hat.

    Larri Nov 12, 2014

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    Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #272 on: March 29, 2020, 14:33 »
    And to be honest, it's difficult to prepare for something, that may either happen tomorrow, or in 1000 years.

    So you're saying we may have to wait until 3020 for the next TdF?  :o
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #273 on: March 29, 2020, 14:49 »
    So you're saying we may have to wait until 3020 for the next TdF?  :o

    Valverde’s already said he’ll be targeting a podium.
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #274 on: March 29, 2020, 15:14 »
    Valverde’s already said he’ll be targeting a podium.
    He'll have to battle Chris Horner for the top step.
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #276 on: March 29, 2020, 17:01 »
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8163761/Chinese-markets-selling-bats.html

    Will this mob never learn.......

    Quote
    The correspondent who visited Dongguan said: 'The markets have gone back to operating in exactly the same way as they did before coronavirus.

    But of course. Why would anyone expect it to be otherwise? It would require a paradigm shift of such magnitude that it's not likely to ever happen on its own. And certainly not in the course of just a few weeks. Something as deeply culturally embedded as these practices would only change if the culture changes.

    Imagine Italians being told that wine production is hazardous to global health. Imagine Central and South Americans being told to stop harvesting and producing coffee. Imagine expecting the French to stop producing cheese in the course of just a few weeks.

    As an aside, I've always viewed much of the traditional Chinese culture—as depicted with those cats in cages, awaiting slaughter—to be one of widespread sociopathy. There's just something deeply troubling about many, many aspects of their behavior. Such a culture is not likely to change one bit over a little virus and a few weeks of inconvenience. Should anyone find my perspective to be bigoted or racist, I'm totally fine with that. There's something very wrong with many of those people and the culture surrounding them.
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #277 on: March 29, 2020, 18:43 »
    Is it possible that in your countries, the official death counts are underrated?

    Because in France, so far, only the people who had died in hospitals were taken into account. It wasn't until last Friday that the "Haut Conseil de la Santé publique" made it clear that the figures only included hospitalised cases.

    Many of course had died in retirement homes or else at home. In several cases, you didn't even have any post mortem testing, so that you'd never know if those people had the virus or not.

    Next week they say they will include those who pass away at retirement homes.

    We all have doubts about the Iranian or the Chinese counts but even in our democracies, there is doubt.  :S
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  • "Paris-Roubaix is the biggest cycling race in the world, bigger than the Tour de France, bigger than any other bike race" (Sir Bradley Wiggins)

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #278 on: March 29, 2020, 18:53 »
    it's hard to say, I guess, with the different ways of counting. Italy for example "admitted" that everyone who dies in a hospital is counted now, no matter what - which I guess makes sense, as they are better off using their ressources for other things than double checking who died because of what desease exactly. But it makes it difficult to compare of course.
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    Kiwirider

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #279 on: March 29, 2020, 21:01 »
    Since it's a rainy, cold Sunday, and I already went for a run this morning, I've been having a look and a play with some numbers ...  :angel :angel

    If we take out China - who is effectively in the "past tense" phase of covid - there are currently about 610,000 cases (active, recovered and deaths)

    Those cases are concentrated in seven countries - US, Italy, Spain, Germany, Iran, France and the UK.

    Those seven countries account for approximately 75% of all of the world's cases - or about 461,000 cases

    Yet, those same countries only account for 9% of the world population or about 738 million people out of a total 7.8 billion!

    (Take out part of the US - since covid doesn't seem to be impacting the warmer south; just the colder north - and that proportion of population is even less, for a relatively minor impact on case counts.)

    Which means that the other quarter of cases (150,000) are clustered amongst the remaining 91% of the population - or about 7 billion people ...


    Just made me think a bit ...

    ... and not just about policy responses and media attention ... but also about questions of first world vs third world; northern hemisphere vs southern; and old world (order?) vs new world ...

    Also makes me wonder if we'll really see an acceleration of the rise of "Asia" (which is typically defined in that discussion to run from the Middle East to Oceania)??
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #280 on: March 29, 2020, 22:00 »
    But of course. Why would anyone expect it to be otherwise? It would require a paradigm shift of such magnitude that it's not likely to ever happen on its own. And certainly not in the course of just a few weeks. Something as deeply culturally embedded as these practices would only change if the culture changes.

    Imagine Italians being told that wine production is hazardous to global health. Imagine Central and South Americans being told to stop harvesting and producing coffee. Imagine expecting the French to stop producing cheese in the course of just a few weeks.
    The difference, though, is that every Italian drinks wine, etc.

    Yes, the Chinese are 'famous' for eating anything possible (and then some) - but most of the 'exotic' species are apparently only consumed by a thin layer at the top of society, as a status symbol: Importing exotic animals (often illegally, in contravention of worldwide bans on trade with these species) and keeping them alive until they're sold for consumption, isn't cheap.

    Of course, the so-called "1%" of the Chinese population would be approximately 15 million people, so ...
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    just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #282 on: March 30, 2020, 10:47 »
    Since it's a rainy, cold Sunday, and I already went for a run this morning, I've been having a look and a play with some numbers ...  :angel :angel

    If we take out China - who is effectively in the "past tense" phase of covid - there are currently about 610,000 cases (active, recovered and deaths)

    Those cases are concentrated in seven countries - US, Italy, Spain, Germany, Iran, France and the UK.

    Those seven countries account for approximately 75% of all of the world's cases - or about 461,000 cases

    Yet, those same countries only account for 9% of the world population or about 738 million people out of a total 7.8 billion!

    (Take out part of the US - since covid doesn't seem to be impacting the warmer south; just the colder north - and that proportion of population is even less, for a relatively minor impact on case counts.)

    Which means that the other quarter of cases (150,000) are clustered amongst the remaining 91% of the population - or about 7 billion people ...


    Just made me think a bit ...

    ... and not just about policy responses and media attention ... but also about questions of first world vs third world; northern hemisphere vs southern; and old world (order?) vs new world ...

    Also makes me wonder if we'll really see an acceleration of the rise of "Asia" (which is typically defined in that discussion to run from the Middle East to Oceania)??

    the truth is that there are MANY MANY cases in many other countries - they either are not testing, or are not counting/reporting to WHO.

    The countries listed are merely the ones who are actually keeping medical records ...

    Indonesia for example are in a world of pain right now ...
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #283 on: March 30, 2020, 10:48 »
    https://twitter.com/stuckinoregon/status/1244473100206395393?

    that we were getting (and still are getting) totally meaningless and made up info from China about this was never in doubt.
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #285 on: March 30, 2020, 12:16 »
    the truth is that there are MANY MANY cases in many other countries - they either are not testing, or are not counting/reporting to WHO.

    The countries listed are merely the ones who are actually keeping medical records ...

    Indonesia for example are in a world of pain right now ...
    Your assertion that the countries listed are the only ones keeping records is false.

    For example NZ, Canada, Australia, Switzerland, Denmark, Netherlands, Japan, Singapore are all well known to be keeping records, but are not on that list ...
    In fact, most of Europe isn't on that list ...

    (Yes, all countries are under-reporting ... but that's more to do with the lack of severity of symptoms for the vast majority of cases than medical system quality ...)

    Also be interested to know a source for your comment on Indonesia - not to challenge, but to educate myself if that is the case ...
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  • « Last Edit: March 31, 2020, 16:24 by Kiwirider »

    Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #286 on: March 30, 2020, 12:34 »
    (take out part of the US - since covid doesn't seem to be impacting the warmer south; just the colder north - and that proportion of population is even less, for a relatively minor impact on case counts.)

    I'm not sure that's true. It's reeking havoc in the south in places like New Orleans, and Florida is likely to be one of the next epicenters. Plus, it hasn't been very cold in the north this year. It's been extremely mild with a very early arrival of Spring.
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  • « Last Edit: March 30, 2020, 13:04 by Drummer Boy »

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #288 on: March 30, 2020, 13:08 »
    I'm not sure that's true. It's reeking havoc in the south in places like New Orleans, and Florida is likely to be one of the next epicenters. Plus, it hasn't been very cold in the north this year. It's been extremely mild with a very early arrival of Spring.

    Just going off data that I can see:
    Florida - 4900 cases
    Texas - 2800 cases
    California - 6500 cases

    Relative to their populations, that's nothing - and especially not compared to northern states.

    This is off worldometer - which isn't always accurate in its aggregation ... so happy to be corrected ...   :)
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #289 on: March 30, 2020, 13:25 »
    Relative to their populations, that's nothing - and especially not compared to northern states.

    The numbers in Florida will be the ones to watch closely. A lot of people have been traveling there, especially from New York, which currently has the most cases of the virus. It's one of the main reasons that Trump was threatening to quarantine of all New York state. Plus, you had Spring Break with kids coming in from all over the country, which presented its own set of problems.

    The governor of Florida has been particularly problematic in his response as well. He was very, very slow to react to the influx of possibly-infected people, so local mayors had to take it upon themselves to close beaches, etc. The governor has since changed his tune a bit, but his lag in response time is sure to prove disastrous.

    More significantly, though, is the aging population of Florida. It's long been a destination for retirement, so most people are expecting the virus take a very serious toll on the elderly, of which there are significant numbers.
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #290 on: March 30, 2020, 14:01 »
     So, many of the Floridian cases are really Northern generated cases?
    There does seem to be mileage in the idea that the virus does not function well in warm climates.
     Again, I was using Worldometer as the source.


     I have to say that some of the restrictions being placed on individuals do seem to be cosmetic PR to me and even counter productive.
    A quick, or rather slow visit to the local supermarket confirmed my suspicions.
    Instead of a stealthy visit for the very basic essentials, my shop lasted three times as long as it would have, queuing behind a line of trolleys, all spaced out by the now compulsory 2 metres.
    While waiting my turn to enter the almost empty shop, it occurred to me that the primary source of infection would be via the handles of trolleys or hand baskets. ( I have been using my own bags for the last two weeks)
    These trolleys are used time and time again, without any form of sterilisation, or even a quick rub down of said handles.
    Not much point in being spatially aware and wearing face masks, while pushing these germ magnets around, with bare hands....
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  • "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.

    Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #291 on: March 30, 2020, 14:07 »
    Speaking of border skirmishes...

    In all the bizarre events that have been unfolding around the coronavirus, the following is near the top of the list. I keep on claiming that "I never imagined I see (X) in my lifetime." But I really, really never imagined this.

    I previously mentioned the "Tri-State" area, of which I'm a part, as it consists of Connecticut, New York and New Jersey. Trump had recently threatened a mandatory quarantine of the area, to slow the spread of the virus. He has since rescinded that, and instead issued a "strong travel advisory."

    Now, no one really believes that such a quarantine would have even been possible, not to mention the questionable legality of it. For one, there are just far too many roads connecting the those state to ever hope to enforce such a policy. Also, the State police and National Guards of each respective state report, and answer to, the governor of their state, not the President. But it did set off a series of cultural alarm bells. Pitting states against states isn't really something that's happened here since the Civil War of the 1860s, but a revival of that mentality is slowly creeping to the surface.

    That thing that I never imagined I'd see?
    Rhode Island—the smallest of all the states, and which borders Connecticut just to our east—has recently issued a restriction on travel to their state from anyone coming from New York. The governor of Rhode Island was very firm in her assertion that anyone with New York license plates would be stopped at the major bridges and other significant points of entry. Seeing as New York is such a hotspot to the coronavirus, she is hoping to halt the spread at her border.

    They have actually brought in the National Guard to assist with local police, not only in traffic stops, but actually going door-to-door to those locations where people from New York are thought to own secondary properties or places they may be temporarily staying. From what I understand, one of the main objectives is to insist the these people self-quarantine for a period of 14 days. They're not shipping them back to New York, or detaining them, yet, but who knows what lies ahead.

    Seeing military police setting up border controls between neighboring states is a first in my lifetime. It's really unprecedented. Now the governor of New York, Andrew Cuomo, has threatened to sue Rhode Island over the policy, but I can't imagine he'll have much success with that. He feels that it's an unconstitutional restriction on the travel of New Yorkers, but individual states do have certain rights, and the power to enforce those rights. It's a very murky, and largely untested, legal area though.

    It's somewhat amusing that Rhode Island hasn't yet been so strict about Connecticut residents, as we're the ones who actually share a border, and New Yorkers would mostly have to go through Connecticut to even get to Rhode Island. But it's creating a lot of bad blood between the two.

    Inter-state friction like this is just something I've never experienced. It's really quite odd, and totally unfamiliar. The borders between the states are about as informal as you'll find anywhere, but that seems to be changing as the very definition of such things is being pushed to the extreme. It just seems that whatever restrictions they hope to enact, it will all turn out to be too little, too late.
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #292 on: March 30, 2020, 14:16 »
    While waiting my turn to enter the almost empty shop, it occurred to me that the primary source of infection would be via the handles of trolleys or hand baskets. ( I have been using my own bags for the last two weeks)

    These trolleys are used time and time again, without any form of sterilisation, or even a quick rub down of said handles.

    Not much point in being spatially aware and wearing face masks, while pushing these germ magnets around, with bare hands....

    Oh, the cleaning of those things is a big priority around here. Most people are wearing gloves before even touching those handles of doom, and store employees will frequently be seen wiping them down with chemically-treated towels or spray.

    Even on a good day, I always worry about germs on grocery carts. I treat them like gasoline pumps: filthy germ factories that if touched without gloves will necessitate a thorough washing of one's hands as soon as possible, or at least the use of hand-sanitizer. Yuck.
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  • AG

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #293 on: March 30, 2020, 14:27 »
    Your assertion that the countries tested are the only ones keeping records is false.

    For example NZ, Canada, Australia, Switzerland, Denmark, Netherlands, Japan, Singapore are all well known to be keeping records, but are not on that list ...
    In fact, most of Europe isn't on that list ...

    (Yes, all countries are under-reporting ... but that's more to do with the lack of severity of symptoms for the vast majority of cases than medical system quality ...)

    Also be interested to know a source for your comment on Indonesia - not to challenge, but to educate myself if that is the case ...

    definitely some countries have significantly less cases than others. 

    Japan and Singapore both have responded very well to the crisis.  They did have major issues with the SARS epidemic a few years ago, and their reaction to this was put in place early, and it has certainly kept things down for them.

    Australia too is pretty fortunate - we did quarantine and close off flights from China very early.  Most of our early cases actually came from Europe and the US ... so we are a couple of weeks behind the main European situation ... and so putting into place the social restrictions has been a bit more successful.  Wait and see on that one.

    Indonesia - my only knowledge is from friends and family returning from Bali and Jakarta - saying the situation in both places is not good.  No social distancing or any measures in place, completely business and usual - and the hygene in many areas is not good to begin with.
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #294 on: March 30, 2020, 15:56 »
    Tough day for the Swedish experiment. 36 dead and cases rising. Not massive number until you consider cases per million
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #295 on: March 30, 2020, 16:25 »
    So, many of the Floridian cases are really Northern generated cases?

    I don't know if they're even sure of the percentages, because they just don't have the necessary tracking data. But the influx of people from New York is certainly not helping. I have relatives in Orlando, where Disney is located, and it's getting worse down there by the day.

    I think they're dealing mostly with projected estimates, which may turn out to be better or worse than what the models show. It's a bit of a waiting game at this point. Of course the numbers may be convoluted by an already-aging populous that would've had a certain death rate regardless.
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #296 on: March 30, 2020, 16:45 »
    Tough day for the Swedish experiment. 36 dead and cases rising. Not massive number until you consider cases per million

     Interesting to compare to the UK, as both countries had the first case on January 30th.
    Sweden 14 deaths per million. Cases per million pop: 399
    UK 21 deaths per million. Cases per million pop: 288

    So, all in all, it seems that the softly softly approach hasn't done too badly.......yet.

    Also, Spain also had their first case on January 30th.......
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #297 on: March 30, 2020, 16:52 »
    It does help that most Swedish people practice social distancing as a norm.
    :lol
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #298 on: March 30, 2020, 16:57 »

    It will be 2022 before the TDF gets back to normal as the Olympics again steals it's 2021 slot.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/52091224


    Also:
    The World Athletics Championships, originally set to take place in Oregon, USA, between 6 August and 15 August 2021, will now be postponed until 2022.
    If that is moved back exactly a year it would clash with the Commonwealth Games in Birmingham which is set to take place between 27 July and 7 August.
    :fp
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  • Echoes

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #299 on: March 30, 2020, 17:38 »
    Commonwealth Games and Euro Championships are not universal events. So the best athletes would peak for the Worlds. Anyway if Commonwealth Games keep the same slot, they can still arrange things. For instance, if the 100 m at the Games is held on Day 1 (27 July), you can easily have the 100 m Worlds on August 7, etc. Besides, you won't have the same competitors.

    But well, at least Greg remains Olympic Champion for one more year. :win
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