collapse


Drummer Boy

  • Classics Winner
  • Country: us
  • Posts: 3214
  • Liked: 3862
  • Awards: Post of the year 2015
Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
« Reply #330 on: April 01, 2020, 16:04 »
I'm curious as to what is going on in Russia. I haven't seen them mentioned even once in the local or national news here.

According the currently available stats, they are way down the list in terms of numbers of infections. As of this writing, I'm seeing a total of only 2,777 cases compared to 189,711 in the U.S. Is that even possible? Even though they seem to be bracing for the inevitable increase, are those low numbers the result of lack of testing, or lack of honest reporting?

Then I just came across this:

Russian plane takes off for U.S. with coronavirus help onboard: state TV

Quote
MOSCOW (Reuters) - A Russian military transport plane took off from an airfield outside Moscow early on Wednesday and headed for the United States with a load of medical equipment and masks to help Washington fight coronavirus, Russian state TV reported.

The flight, which was organised by the Russian Defence Ministry, is likely to be unpopular with some critics of Trump who have urged him to keep his distance from Putin and who argue that Moscow uses such aid as a geopolitical and propaganda tool to advance its influence, something the Kremlin denies.

Which seems odd, because you'd think they'd want to sensibly be stockpiling for themselves, instead of, according to the Russian officials quoted in the article, relying on reciprocation from the U.S. down the road if need be.

Supposedly that shipment arrives today. So I guess we'll know more once it has landed and an inventory of goods is made available.
  • ReplyReply

  • Mellow Velo

    • Classics Winner
    • Country: wales
    • Posts: 2706
    • Liked: 3232
    • Awards: 2015 CQ Vuelta Game winnerVelogames Classics Champion 20142013 CQ Ranking Giro Game
    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #331 on: April 01, 2020, 16:46 »
     This is pretty much the biggest sporting news possible as far as the BBC is concerned.
     Right up there with the Olympics as it hits them where it hurts most.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/52104196
  • ReplyReply
  • "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.

    just some guy

    • Fourth Generation humanoid bot
    • Hall of Fame'r
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 31777
    • Liked: 11357
    • Awards: 2017 Spring Classics CQ game winnerBest Avatar of 2016JSG News Filter Award 2014Poster of 2014Thread of the Year 2013Most Helpful Member 2013Art of Brevity 2012Most helpful member 2012Best member of staff 2012
    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #332 on: April 01, 2020, 16:47 »
    I guess the bet isn't on acting responsibly, but on achieving population immunity faster - this will probably be achieved - but the downside is the number of seriously ill people can flood the hospitals beyond capacity at least for a while. I don't think there's any hope of less people (divided by two as Norway is about half the size of Sweden) eventually getting infected here, there's only a reason to believe it is more likely health services will function almost as normal while the crisis is running.

    Yep that is the idea, the reverse Elephant theory I mentioned early.

    Anyway 500 + more cases and 39 deaths,  up the wards for me today. Treated a person who works in our Acute section , have now almost had a bath on alcohol :D

    Intensive care places are about capacity now in Stockholm.

    6500 retired hospital staff and others willing to help have signed up to help hospitals

    Much calmer feel to the wards today,  now everyone knows what to expect people just getting there jobs done.

    There is a code system in place with post it notes under name badges. Pink and yellow

    Not sure of the meaning yet, thinking it might be tested or not will investigate
  • ReplyReply
  • Of course, if this turns out someday to be the industry standard integrated handlebar-computer-braking solution then I'll eat my kevlar-reinforced aerodynamic hat.

    Larri Nov 12, 2014

    just some guy

    • Fourth Generation humanoid bot
    • Hall of Fame'r
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 31777
    • Liked: 11357
    • Awards: 2017 Spring Classics CQ game winnerBest Avatar of 2016JSG News Filter Award 2014Poster of 2014Thread of the Year 2013Most Helpful Member 2013Art of Brevity 2012Most helpful member 2012Best member of staff 2012
    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #333 on: April 01, 2020, 16:50 »
    I'm curious as to what is going on in Russia. I haven't seen them mentioned even once in the local or national news here.

    According the currently available stats, they are way down the list in terms of numbers of infections. As of this writing, I'm seeing a total of only 2,777 cases compared to 189,711 in the U.S. Is that even possible? Even though they seem to be bracing for the inevitable increase, are those low numbers the result of lack of testing, or lack of honest reporting?

    Then I just came across this:

    Russian plane takes off for U.S. with coronavirus help onboard: state TV

    Which seems odd, because you'd think they'd want to sensibly be stockpiling for themselves, instead of, according to the Russian officials quoted in the article, relying on reciprocation from the U.S. down the road if need be.

    Supposedly that shipment arrives today. So I guess we'll know more once it has landed and an inventory of goods is made available.

    Vodka in lethal dosing for a non Russian may kill the virus ?
  • ReplyReply

  • Mellow Velo

    • Classics Winner
    • Country: wales
    • Posts: 2706
    • Liked: 3232
    • Awards: 2015 CQ Vuelta Game winnerVelogames Classics Champion 20142013 CQ Ranking Giro Game
    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #334 on: April 01, 2020, 16:59 »
     Bad day for sport as Wimbledon's cancellation is quickly followed by:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52121463


    Bad day for the UK with new cases exceeding Italy's previous two days and new deaths almost touching 600.

    So, I'd say Sweden's elephant theory ain't pink.
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: April 01, 2020, 17:09 by Mellow Velo »

    just some guy

    • Fourth Generation humanoid bot
    • Hall of Fame'r
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 31777
    • Liked: 11357
    • Awards: 2017 Spring Classics CQ game winnerBest Avatar of 2016JSG News Filter Award 2014Poster of 2014Thread of the Year 2013Most Helpful Member 2013Art of Brevity 2012Most helpful member 2012Best member of staff 2012
    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #335 on: April 01, 2020, 17:14 »
    Worse case scenario. CoVid-19 is in the nursing home system in Stockholm.

    In Swedish https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/smittade-pa-boende-for-aldre-i-stockholm

    But these are the folks that can not look after themselves and need 24 nursing.

    In some parts of the world older people will move into communities but still are healthy just want live near others with similar age groups, this in not the case in Sweden you stay in your own home or apartments until you can't. These people will not survive much :(
  • ReplyReply

  • just some guy

    • Fourth Generation humanoid bot
    • Hall of Fame'r
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 31777
    • Liked: 11357
    • Awards: 2017 Spring Classics CQ game winnerBest Avatar of 2016JSG News Filter Award 2014Poster of 2014Thread of the Year 2013Most Helpful Member 2013Art of Brevity 2012Most helpful member 2012Best member of staff 2012
    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #336 on: April 01, 2020, 17:20 »
    Bad day for sport as Wimbledon's cancellation is quickly followed by:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/52121463


    Bad day for the UK with new cases exceeding Italy's previous two days and new deaths almost touching 600.

    So, I'd say Sweden's elephant theory ain't pink.

    I almost feel like we are all in the same sh*t show but if Sweden comes through with about the same stats as the rest of the world, it should be in a better position economically and be able to start up again faster with less worry about a 2nd wave, but if it turns out not too work we are going to be losing a generation and more. Basically will be in some sort of Hell storm
  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • World Champion
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 12096
    • Liked: 13472
    • Awards: 2019 Tour prediction champMember of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Member of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #337 on: April 01, 2020, 19:04 »
    Haven't Italy have been attributing all hospital deaths to Covid 19 during this period?
    I think I read that somewhere.....

    they do, yes. The Province of Bergamo has now published a table comparing 2019 to 2020 though, which paints quite a clear picture for that part of Italy

  • ReplyReply
  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    just some guy

    • Fourth Generation humanoid bot
    • Hall of Fame'r
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 31777
    • Liked: 11357
    • Awards: 2017 Spring Classics CQ game winnerBest Avatar of 2016JSG News Filter Award 2014Poster of 2014Thread of the Year 2013Most Helpful Member 2013Art of Brevity 2012Most helpful member 2012Best member of staff 2012
    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #338 on: April 01, 2020, 19:37 »
    Pretty clear increase in death rate there. Some regions will have many years to recover +428 :o
  • ReplyReply

  • Drummer Boy

    • Classics Winner
    • Country: us
    • Posts: 3214
    • Liked: 3862
    • Awards: Post of the year 2015
    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #339 on: April 01, 2020, 21:56 »
    Connecticut has just announced the death of a seven-week-old baby, the youngest thus far, due to COVID-19.

    No other details available yet. I'll return to this post when I have more info.
  • ReplyReply

  • Echoes

    • Road Captain
    • Country: be
    • Posts: 1496
    • Liked: 1737
    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #340 on: April 01, 2020, 22:52 »
    Then it's the second baby victim of the virus in the US. First one was in Illinois, wasn't he?

    Here in Belgium, we've had to accept the death of Rachel, 12-year-old girl, living in Ghent. The youngest victim in Europe, thus far. Actually their parents of Ghanean heritage called the Emergency service and the panic they felt made their call incomprehensible for the ESU, so that eventually a neighbour took the little girl himself to the hospital, but too late. :(
  • ReplyReply
  • "Paris-Roubaix is the biggest cycling race in the world, bigger than the Tour de France, bigger than any other bike race" (Sir Bradley Wiggins)

    just some guy

    • Fourth Generation humanoid bot
    • Hall of Fame'r
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 31777
    • Liked: 11357
    • Awards: 2017 Spring Classics CQ game winnerBest Avatar of 2016JSG News Filter Award 2014Poster of 2014Thread of the Year 2013Most Helpful Member 2013Art of Brevity 2012Most helpful member 2012Best member of staff 2012

    just some guy

    • Fourth Generation humanoid bot
    • Hall of Fame'r
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 31777
    • Liked: 11357
    • Awards: 2017 Spring Classics CQ game winnerBest Avatar of 2016JSG News Filter Award 2014Poster of 2014Thread of the Year 2013Most Helpful Member 2013Art of Brevity 2012Most helpful member 2012Best member of staff 2012

    Joelsim

    • Classics Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 2990
    • Liked: 1815
      • Music To Your Ears
    • Awards: Fanboy of 2016New member of the year 2015
    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #343 on: April 02, 2020, 10:08 »
    I almost feel like we are all in the same sh*t show but if Sweden comes through with about the same stats as the rest of the world, it should be in a better position economically and be able to start up again faster with less worry about a 2nd wave, but if it turns out not too work we are going to be losing a generation and more. Basically will be in some sort of Hell storm


    You could go even further than this and say that Sweden are being reckless, not just with their own people, but with people all over the world.
  • ReplyReply

  • just some guy

    • Fourth Generation humanoid bot
    • Hall of Fame'r
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 31777
    • Liked: 11357
    • Awards: 2017 Spring Classics CQ game winnerBest Avatar of 2016JSG News Filter Award 2014Poster of 2014Thread of the Year 2013Most Helpful Member 2013Art of Brevity 2012Most helpful member 2012Best member of staff 2012
    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #344 on: April 02, 2020, 10:21 »
    You could Joel sure, maybe not and that is the issue. Until it is under control there is no right answers. Plus no one is travelling anyway so not sure it is a big issue to the rest of the world

    But say for argument it works out for Sweden not every land could have done the same. As I have said Swedes do not socialise the same as any country I have been too and the work force is somewhat different to many parts of the world
  • ReplyReply

  • Echoes

    • Road Captain
    • Country: be
    • Posts: 1496
    • Liked: 1737
    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #345 on: April 02, 2020, 12:18 »
    Belgian football/soccer league is definitively stopped. Bruges is the new Belgian champion.  :S

    Is it also in your country?

    Basketball league had already stopped on March 14. Ostend is Belgian champion.
  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • World Champion
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 12096
    • Liked: 13472
    • Awards: 2019 Tour prediction champMember of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Member of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #346 on: April 02, 2020, 12:35 »
    Belgian football/soccer league is definitively stopped. Bruges is the new Belgian champion.  :S

    Is it also in your country?

    in Germany they still plan to continue the football season at some point. Some competitions have been stopped/cancelled (Ice Hockey league for example) but they decided not to award any titles in consequence. Crowning a champion based on an incomplete intermediate result seems to be fairly unusual (I haven't read anything like that so far, at least).
  • ReplyReply

  • Drummer Boy

    • Classics Winner
    • Country: us
    • Posts: 3214
    • Liked: 3862
    • Awards: Post of the year 2015
    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #347 on: April 02, 2020, 12:37 »
    I'm having a difficult time just keeping up with news reports, stats and second-hand stories. In the Age of Information, there's just too much coming in to fully process.

    New York City is really, really, really bad...and it's going to get worse. As we hear more and more from doctors and nurses on the frontline, we're finding out just how horrific this is. There are teams of medical professionals, who have been all over the world in emergency crisis situations, who have never seen anything like it, and they're starting to crack. 

    One thing that they're reporting on more and more is just how quickly COVID-19 can kill. We're hearing about patients who are talking and alert one hour, and dead the next. The situation is so grim in the Emergency Rooms that none of these medical professionals are mincing words about any of it. They're exhausted, they're scared, and many of them are already suffering from PTSD, and there's no question that many more of them will when this finally abates.

    There is now a new directive for paramedics and other emergency responders in NYC. Should they encounter a patient who, for whatever reason, is found to be unconscious and can not be revived on the spot, they are NOT to transport that person to any hospital, for fear that they could be carrying the virus.

    This is becoming the stuff of sci-fi. There's still talk of a nationwide shutdown of travel, etc, but we're not quite there yet. I'm not sure on the exact numbers (as they change by the day) but I believe that about 40 of the 50 state have mostly shut down, and domestic travel, while greatly reduced, has not been entirely shut off.

    To make matters even worse, there was a story in the news last night of a nurse who just walked away. More accurately, she just refused to go in. There's no protective equipment, her colleagues are getting sick and dying, and she just couldn't bring herself to walk into the fire when she has a husband and children at home who need her. Heroics are one thing, but just how much can expect of these people? What are they sacrificing themselves for if they lose their own lives without the crisis even being stalled?

    These doctors and nurses are reminding me of those unfortunate workers in Fukushima who had to face certain illness or death while charging headlong into the worst of it. Statistically, the numbers are going to continue to rise for at least another month. One of the biggest threats we seem to be facing now is how the virus may decimate the medical community. The more compromised they become, the more fragile the entire situation is. I won't even try to pretend to predict where we'll be by the end of April. This is the very definition of "surreal."
  • ReplyReply

  • Mellow Velo

    • Classics Winner
    • Country: wales
    • Posts: 2706
    • Liked: 3232
    • Awards: 2015 CQ Vuelta Game winnerVelogames Classics Champion 20142013 CQ Ranking Giro Game
    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #348 on: April 02, 2020, 12:45 »
    You could go even further than this and say that Sweden are being reckless, not just with their own people, but with people all over the world.

     But who defines reckless when everybody is guessing as to the best approach? That can only be done in hindsight which is totally unfair. Especially as Sweden currently have a better batting average than the UK.
    What of London transport and their decision to cut services before all the other measures came into place, which lead to trains looking like full sardine tins? With hindsight was that not reckless?
    Images of London trains and stations still show folks jam packed with little or no regard to social distancing.
    It seems little is being done to enforce restrictions here, so it appears that we in the UK are being reckless towards the rest of the world.
    As indeed are Italy and China, judging from the Heathrow arrivals board, yesterday.



    Post Merge: April 02, 2020, 12:52
    Spain already appears to be in a desperate state, even before they get the massive hit from the failed holiday season.
    Already nearly a million have lost their jobs.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52131756
  • ReplyReply

  • Armchair Cyclist

    • Classics Winner
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 2743
    • Liked: 3087
    • Awards: 2019 Spring Classics Prediction Champ2018 Tour de France CQ game winner
    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #349 on: April 02, 2020, 13:00 »
    in Germany they still plan to continue the football season at some point. Some competitions have been stopped/cancelled (Ice Hockey league for example) but they decided not to award any titles in consequence. Crowning a champion based on an incomplete intermediate result seems to be fairly unusual (I haven't read anything like that so far, at least).

    I only have about 5% of the interest in football that I used to have, but the best solution that I have seen, assuming that resumption of this 2019-20 season becomes possible by early autumn is to finish this season off, with its cups and promotions/relegations being determined, and then having a shortened 2020-21 season, with teams playing each other once rather than twice, and fewer cup matches (single leg knockout, no replays; cancel minor cup competitions).  Teams and fans finish the full season they expected this year, and start the abridged season knowing what the rules and opportunities are, and by the summer of 2021 (unless this all drags on even longer, or another catastrophe befalls us) we are back in synch.
  • ReplyReply

  • Drummer Boy

    • Classics Winner
    • Country: us
    • Posts: 3214
    • Liked: 3862
    • Awards: Post of the year 2015
    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #350 on: April 02, 2020, 13:39 »
    As indeed are Italy and China, judging from the Heathrow arrivals board, yesterday.

    What is that about? Could you elaborate?

    Thanks
  • ReplyReply

  • Kiwirider

    • 2nd Year Pro
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 316
    • Liked: 526
    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #351 on: April 02, 2020, 13:41 »
    Pretty clear increase in death rate there. Some regions will have many years to recover +428 :o

    Yes and no ...

    Yes, as a March 2019 to March 2020 comparison, there is definitely an increase.

    But, that's a single point comparison ... We don't know if there were less deaths in March 2019 than normal.

    The graph also looks like it is a total population graph - so there are a raft of causes of death in there that you may be misreading as being covid related.

    And, of course, there's still the fact that Italy is not distinguishing between deaths from covid and deaths with covid ... so there's no way of knowing how accurate - in a causation sense - that last column is.

    Lastly, it's important to have the full context of the numbers - which, I'll confess I don't have, but to put some more context around them:
    Bergamo province = 1.2m people
    covid cases in Bergamo = 4500 (approx)
    covid related deaths = 1959 (approx)

    That means, percentage wise:
    infected people = 0.38% of the population
    deaths - both caused by and attributed to covid = 0.16% of the population

    Which raises a real difference point that a doctor friend explained to me between medicine and public health.

    Medicine - which I understand is where you work - is about the individual and their health and welfare. Which is where we all feel the natural compassion if we were to hear of friends/family/neighbours being infected

    Public Health is about the system as a whole - and doesn't look to individual cases. It looks at the proportion of the population that is vulnerable and/or infected ... a completely different view point ... and one that can look and say "X% mortality, yeah, that's doable, the system will cope" completely independently of the individuals.

    Listen to the WHO and the national/sub-national health officials and you'll realise that covid isn't a medical/health crisis ... it's a public health issue ... (hence the policy responses taken ...)
  • ReplyReply

  • just some guy

    • Fourth Generation humanoid bot
    • Hall of Fame'r
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 31777
    • Liked: 11357
    • Awards: 2017 Spring Classics CQ game winnerBest Avatar of 2016JSG News Filter Award 2014Poster of 2014Thread of the Year 2013Most Helpful Member 2013Art of Brevity 2012Most helpful member 2012Best member of staff 2012
    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #352 on: April 02, 2020, 13:47 »
    Spain seems to be about 10 days after Italy, but in worse shape, the figures are staggering.
  • ReplyReply

  • Mellow Velo

    • Classics Winner
    • Country: wales
    • Posts: 2706
    • Liked: 3232
    • Awards: 2015 CQ Vuelta Game winnerVelogames Classics Champion 20142013 CQ Ranking Giro Game
    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #353 on: April 02, 2020, 13:51 »
    What is that about? Could you elaborate?

    Thanks

    Many flights had been cancelled, almost all from Europe, yet there were 3 or 4 Alitalia flight arriving in the space of a couple of hours from Rome.
    Same with the China flights: almost all still on while the most of the rest of the world are off.

    Anyhow, here's a prime example of how the BBC are using misleading headlines and reporting to ramp up the panic.
    In the last hour, a well know UK comedian has passed and this is the story link we get from the Beeb.

    Eddie Large: Comedian dies with coronavirus.

    OK, now read the article and the truth emerges:

    His family confirmed the news "with great sadness" on Facebook, saying he had been suffering with heart failure and contracted the virus in hospital.

    "Dad fought bravely for so long," they wrote.
  • ReplyReply

  • Drummer Boy

    • Classics Winner
    • Country: us
    • Posts: 3214
    • Liked: 3862
    • Awards: Post of the year 2015
    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #354 on: April 02, 2020, 15:07 »
    Anyhow, here's a prime example of how the BBC are using misleading headlines and reporting to ramp up the panic.

    Ah yes, the tried and true tactic of the media. Headline says on thing, article reveals another.

    There was a story yesterday of how 87-year-old Supreme Court judge Ruth Bader Ginsburg was still going to a "public gym" and "refused" to self-quarantine. The article itself, though, revealed that the Supreme Court justices actually have their own gym, and that's where she had been going, with a trainer who practices all the necessary health procedures, and wipes everything down before and after. Not to mention the fact that there are only nine people total on the Supreme Court, and most of them are elderly, so how active could that gym possibly be anyway?

    Outrage, just like panic and hysteria, still sells, it would seem.
  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • World Champion
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 12096
    • Liked: 13472
    • Awards: 2019 Tour prediction champMember of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Member of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #355 on: April 02, 2020, 15:34 »
    Yes, as a March 2019 to March 2020 comparison, there is definitely an increase.

    But, that's a single point comparison ... We don't know if there were less deaths in March 2019 than normal.

    they did a study on that, so there must be numbers available somewhere, but personally I couldn't find them yet

    «We compared the number of deaths over the first three months of this year with the average figure of the last three years, in order to verify the increase in mortality across Bergamo’s territory - explains Aldo Cristadoro, founder of InTwig and professor in Digital methods for social research at Bergamo University -. Our evaluation, carried out with great accuracy by means of the official data provided by each local administration, tells us that during the month of March more than 5.400 people have died, and approximately 4.500 of these are ascribable to coronavirus. One year ago, in March, the total deaths were almost 900».

    https://www.ecodibergamo.it/stories/bergamo-citta/coronavirus-the-real-death-tool-4500-victims-in-one-month-in-the-province-of_1347414_11/

    As you can read, this study comes to the conclusion, that the number of people who died from the virus is actually way higher than the official Italian numbers, not lower (although in this newspaper article it sounds very simplified - no idea if all other potential influences were taken into account).

    Edit: this also applies for the number of positive cases btw. According to their studies, the real number of infected in the Province of Bergamo is around 288000 (26% of the population)

    https://www.ilriformista.it/i-morti-per-covid-19-a-bergamo-sono-4-500-smentiti-i-dati-ufficiali-73471/?refresh_ce
  • ReplyReply

  • Kiwirider

    • 2nd Year Pro
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 316
    • Liked: 526
    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #356 on: April 02, 2020, 15:56 »
    t (although in this newspaper article it sounds very simplified - no idea if all other potential influences were taken into account).
    Exactly ...

    Extrapolating "crude fatality rates" that are widely stated to be overstating the fatality percentage and then stating that the 2500 deaths must all be covid shows a bit of journalistic bias ...

    You may not like relying on official stats - for whatever reason - but I'd really urge looking towards them in preference to newspapers ... even if the paper does claim to have collected official data from municipalities ... and even though we all strongly suspect that the large numbers of aysmptomatic and mildly symptomatic cases that the total case count is much higher globally than even official stats ...
  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • World Champion
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 12096
    • Liked: 13472
    • Awards: 2019 Tour prediction champMember of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Member of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #357 on: April 02, 2020, 16:08 »
    You may not like relying on official stats - for whatever reason - but I'd really urge looking towards them in preference to newspapers...

    I don't know what you mean. This is just a newspaper article referring to a study at the University at Bergamo - not something made up by some Italian journalist.
  • ReplyReply

  • Kiwirider

    • 2nd Year Pro
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 316
    • Liked: 526
    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #358 on: April 02, 2020, 16:11 »
    Spain seems to be about 10 days after Italy, but in worse shape, the figures are staggering.

    Per latest numbers on Worldometer (which, as they aggregate both official and media numbers need to be taken with some salt!)
    Spain - cases - 110,233; deaths - 10,003; recovered - 26743; minor active - 67,400
    Italy - cases - 110, 574; deaths - 13,155; recovered - 16,847; minor active - 76537

    On the absolute numbers, Spain is actually in similar to better shape than Italy - more recoveries, less deaths and a 10% (roughly) lower level of minor cases.

    If we put those numbers across their respective populations
    Spain = 46.7m
    cases = 0.23%; deaths = .02% (or 10% of cases); recovered = .06%; minor active = 0.14%

    Italy = 60.5m
    cases = 0.18%; deaths = 0.02% (or 11% of cases); recovered = 0.02%; minor active = 0.12%

    So, really a pretty similar picture in both countries ... which, if, as you say, Spain is behind Italy on the typical curve probably actually puts them a bit better shape, relatively ...
  • ReplyReply

  • just some guy

    • Fourth Generation humanoid bot
    • Hall of Fame'r
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 31777
    • Liked: 11357
    • Awards: 2017 Spring Classics CQ game winnerBest Avatar of 2016JSG News Filter Award 2014Poster of 2014Thread of the Year 2013Most Helpful Member 2013Art of Brevity 2012Most helpful member 2012Best member of staff 2012
    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #359 on: April 02, 2020, 16:56 »
    Little personal update. The hospital is openning up more wards a whole section is now CoVid-19 patients about 50 beds per ward 6 levels and this is not intensive care.

    More and more positive cases out of the nursing home system .
    As they like to say in the media, the Storm is here. 4-6 weeks of upwards curve I assume after looking at countries ahead of us
  • ReplyReply

  •  



    Top
    Back to top