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Drummer Boy

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
« Reply #391 on: April 05, 2020, 03:12 »
An interesting article in the Canadian media, citing British Columbia's Chief Medical Officer of Health.

Basically, she notes that we're starting to see Mother Nature do what she does best and self regulate ... as the virus is showing that it is seasonal (just like the flu and the other coronaviruses that are out and about):

“There’s some evidence that this coronavirus is behaving like other coronaviruses, which means that when we have increased UV light and warmer temperatures it tends to fade away.”

This isn't the first time that I've read this in the media ... although each time I've posted it, I've been slammed because the source is an academic. Hopefully seeing this comment come from someone on the front lines of the policy response will get people thinking a bit more ...

If that doesn't tell enough of the story to get people thinking, consider this:
- BC is the warmest part of Canada and gets spring a few weeks to a month or so ahead of the rest of the country ... and has been showing the first tail off in cases and curve flattening in the country
- compare New York and Florida to see the impact of climate. Both states have similar populations and population densities. FL has an average age that makes dinosaurs look young ...  Based on that, you'd expect higher cases and deaths in FL ... but they have 10% of cases and 5% of deaths compared to NY.
- there are similarly low case rates in the other southern US states ...


https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-bcs-health-officer-says-decrease-in-covid-cases-heartening-2/
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #392 on: April 05, 2020, 08:10 »
    Karolinska institutet in Stockholm has a immunity test that has just been approved. Will find more details just saw it named on the late news tonight

    're watched

    It not approved yet. There will be a blind test next week. The test had shown to work but needs a blind test 1st.
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  • Of course, if this turns out someday to be the industry standard integrated handlebar-computer-braking solution then I'll eat my kevlar-reinforced aerodynamic hat.

    Larri Nov 12, 2014

    just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #393 on: April 05, 2020, 10:27 »
    Leaving this here with no comment

    China should be sued for $6.5 trillion for coronavirus damages says top UK think tank https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/china-should-be-sued-for-6-5-trillion-for-coronavirus-damages-says-top-uk-think-tank-20200405-p54h5b.html
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #394 on: April 05, 2020, 10:33 »
    An interesting article in the Canadian media, citing British Columbia's Chief Medical Officer of Health.

    Basically, she notes that we're starting to see Mother Nature do what she does best and self regulate ... as the virus is showing that it is seasonal (just like the flu and the other coronaviruses that are out and about):

    “There’s some evidence that this coronavirus is behaving like other coronaviruses, which means that when we have increased UV light and warmer temperatures it tends to fade away.”

    This isn't the first time that I've read this in the media ... although each time I've posted it, I've been slammed because the source is an academic. Hopefully seeing this comment come from someone on the front lines of the policy response will get people thinking a bit more ...

    If that doesn't tell enough of the story to get people thinking, consider this:
    - BC is the warmest part of Canada and gets spring a few weeks to a month or so ahead of the rest of the country ... and has been showing the first tail off in cases and curve flattening in the country
    - compare New York and Florida to see the impact of climate. Both states have similar populations and population densities. FL has an average age that makes dinosaurs look young ...  Based on that, you'd expect higher cases and deaths in FL ... but they have 10% of cases and 5% of deaths compared to NY.
    - there are similarly low case rates in the other southern US states ...


    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-bcs-health-officer-says-decrease-in-covid-cases-heartening-2/

    We can hope but Spain and sections of Italy are pretty warm already.
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  • Kiwirider

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #395 on: April 05, 2020, 12:34 »
    We can hope but Spain and sections of Italy are pretty warm already.
    You'll note that she also mentions UV?

    UV works on vitamin D - "the sunshine vitamin" - which in turn strengthens the immune system ... and sunshine hours are a reflection (if you'll excuse the pun) of the changes in day/sunrise-sunset time as we come away from the shorter days of Jan-Feb-Mar ... and also of the general weather change over spring - irrespective of temperature ...

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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #396 on: April 05, 2020, 12:55 »
    We can hope but Spain and sections of Italy are pretty warm already.

     It's starting to turn milder, but it's quite a way off what I would call warm.
    I keep a regular eye on Mallorca and that's been averaging low to mid 60s.
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  • "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.

    Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #397 on: April 05, 2020, 13:10 »
    “There’s some evidence that this coronavirus is behaving like other coronaviruses, which means that when we have increased UV light and warmer temperatures it tends to fade away.”
    What's interesting about this is people's interpretation. The above would seem to indicate that the virus itself does not survive well in sunlight, warmth, etc. But some have taking this to mean that if a person gets sunlight, etc, that it boosts their immunity to coronavirus, they've even stated as much explicitly. But I don't think the data is suggesting that, per se, unless I've got that wrong?



    Quote
    Based on that, you'd expect higher cases and deaths in FL ... but they have 10% of cases and 5% of deaths compared to NY.
    - there are similarly low case rates in the other southern US states ...
    This will be the thing to watch, because everything I've been seeing seems to indicate that some of those warmer states are poised to become the next epicenters of coronavirus. The fact that they're numbers aren't higher yet would seem to be due to other factors unrelated to climate. I also remember reading some stats on a number of those Spring Breakers who have since tested positive, but I don't know if that was definitively traced to their time in Florida or not.

    I suspect that we're going to find that the warmer climates will offer little relief in the battle against COVID-19. I'm very curious to see how this unfolds though.
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #398 on: April 05, 2020, 13:22 »
    Bill Gates is spending billions to produce 7 potential coronavirus vaccines


     - Gates said that at most his foundation would end up picking two out of the seven vaccine candidates.

     - That means billions of dollars spent on manufacturing would be abandoned.

     - He said it’s worth it, as the world is in a situation where the economy is losing trillions of dollars.

    Quote
    Gates said testing and building the manufacturing capacity at the same time is essential in developing a vaccine in the 18-month timeframe. He commented on the current social distancing and stay-at-home measures occurring across the country, saying we’ll have a lot of unusual measures in place until “we get the world vaccinated,” adding, “that’s a tall order, but it’s where we need to get to.”

    https://twitter.com/TheDailyShow/status/1245889758322200576
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  • Kiwirider

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #399 on: April 05, 2020, 13:44 »
    What's interesting about this is people's interpretation. The above would seem to indicate that the virus itself does not survive well in sunlight, warmth, etc. But some have taking this to mean that if a person gets sunlight, etc, that it boosts their immunity to coronavirus, they've even stated as much explicitly. But I don't think the data is suggesting that, per se, unless I've got that wrong?
    As I understand, it's a combination of both.

    UV promotes vitamin D, which promotes a stronger immune system ... hence less susceptibility to disease in general.

    UV is also a disinfection agent and is effective against viruses. I know that from my nearly mis-spent youth when I worked at a wastewater treatment plant (I dodged a bullet - I nearly went off and became a chemical engineer!!  :o :o ) One of the technologies used was UV treatment. See below from the US EPA on the topic.

    https://www3.epa.gov/npdes/pubs/uv.pdf

    At a domestic level, it's also a big part of why we hang washing out on a line ... the sunlight does a good job at killing what the washing machine hasn't (or, for most washing machines, what it has added ...)



    This will be the thing to watch, because everything I've been seeing seems to indicate that some of those warmer states are poised to become the next epicenters of coronavirus. The fact that they're numbers aren't higher yet would seem to be due to other factors unrelated to climate. I also remember reading some stats on a number of those Spring Breakers who have since tested positive, but I don't know if that was definitively traced to their time in Florida or not.

    I suspect that we're going to find that the warmer climates will offer little relief in the battle against COVID-19. I'm very curious to see how this unfolds though.
    First question has to be - what do you think that those other factors are? Certainly not age, health, population density ... they all tell against or are not significantly different for the southern states ...


    How long do we wait for that impending up tick?? The world is being held in limbo on the threat that "it's coming" ... but in most places, it's not ...

    And, the longer we wait, the more we exit cold and flu season ... which brings us into the traditional period where all forms of virus become less active (and I recognise the circularity of arguing based on the quote that I originally put up ...).

    And, like i say, contrast the case loads and daily changes in the warmer vs colder parts of Canada ... the warmer areas - despite again densities (by Canadian standards) and age (BC is a retirement home) - are seeing flattenings and higher levels of recovery (in, I understand, shorter periods of time) ...


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  • just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #400 on: April 05, 2020, 14:01 »
    I did know about UV thanks Kiwi just needed a reminder.

    Some stats from Sweden and age group
    flesta avlidna, av Sveriges 401 dödsfall, 170 personer, finns inom åldersgruppen 80–90 år. Bland 70–79-åringarna har 106 människor avlidit och bland dem över 90 är antalet dödsfallen 76.

    In Swedish and I am a lazy fliper so hope you get the idea.

    Not sure what we can draw from the stats and the effectiveness of the reverse Elephant theory. But about 240 of the 400 are 70 and over.
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #401 on: April 05, 2020, 14:21 »
    At a domestic level, it's also a big part of why we hang washing out on a line ... the sunlight does a good job at killing what the washing machine hasn't (or, for most washing machines, what it has added ...)
    I had never considered that aspect of it, but I suppose it's all part of the reason that I prefer clotheslined bedsheets and towels when given the opportunity. It something you see very little of these days though, unless you're in more rural areas. When I was kid, it wasn't at all unusual, even suburbia, to see clothesline outside of one's home. But today, in those exact same neighborhoods? Never.


    Quote
    First question has to be - what do you think that those other factors are?
    Good question, and I can only speculate.
    In somewhere like Luisiana, it could very well be due to less travel outside the state, and fewer people coming in, for those in more remote regions. Obviously a place like New Orleans would be different, with so many tourists coming and going, etc, which is why the've had to shut that city down.

    For Florida (again, this is just speculation), I imagine an aging population of retirees who may have been relatively in place at the start of all this, and it wasn't until people from the northeast began fleeing south that the virus gained a strong foothold, in addition to college students arriving for Spring Break, etc. So they may have a delayed start compared to a place like New York.

    As I type this though, I do have to wonder about the effect that air-conditioning has on the life expectancy of the virus. It's so damn hot down there for much of the year that everyone tends to rely on AC quite extensively. So if the virus makes it way to indoor surfaces, I wonder if the internal environment negates whatever is going on outdoors?

    As far as a timeline in regards to Florida specifically, I would have to imagine that by the end of May we'll have a very clear view of just how bad it may or may not get for them.
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #402 on: April 05, 2020, 16:00 »
    As I understand, it's a combination of both.

    UV promotes vitamin D, which promotes a stronger immune system ... hence less susceptibility to disease in general.


    Yup.
    My niece once had to go to the doctors because she was feeling so tired and lethargic.
    She was diagnosed with a lack of vitamin D....................due to the fact she spent so much time inside Manchester and Newport velodromes.


    Anyhow, I too had read that it boosts the immune system, helping combat the virus.
    Which makes the UK government's latest threat completely nuts.
    Just as we finally get Spring weather, they intend to stop folks going outdoors altogether.
    All because of the few who are not current following guidelines.
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  • Kiwirider

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #403 on: April 05, 2020, 16:51 »
    Good question, and I can only speculate.
    In somewhere like Luisiana, it could very well be due to less travel outside the state, and fewer people coming in, for those in more remote regions. Obviously a place like New Orleans would be different, with so many tourists coming and going, etc, which is why the've had to shut that city down.

    For Florida (again, this is just speculation), I imagine an aging population of retirees who may have been relatively in place at the start of all this, and it wasn't until people from the northeast began fleeing south that the virus gained a strong foothold, in addition to college students arriving for Spring Break, etc. So they may have a delayed start compared to a place like New York.

    As I type this though, I do have to wonder about the effect that air-conditioning has on the life expectancy of the virus. It's so damn hot down there for much of the year that everyone tends to rely on AC quite extensively. So if the virus makes it way to indoor surfaces, I wonder if the internal environment negates whatever is going on outdoors?

    As far as a timeline in regards to Florida specifically, I would have to imagine that by the end of May we'll have a very clear view of just how bad it may or may not get for them.
    Maybe ... but don't forget that we send a ton of snowbirds and general holiday makers to FL from up here across the entire winter - and, given the supposed uptick due to returning QC spring break families and, a couple of weeks later, snowbirds, I'm not so sure on that theory ...

    It also doesn't explain the lack of cases in Texas and California - as your two most populous states - in absolute terms, relative to their own populations and relative to NY and PA ...

    I would be interested to compare the rest of the Gulf Coast and some of the other, dry/warm states - but am honestly too lazy to calculate the cases per 100k populations ... However, on a quick look - MS, AL, NV and AZ are all under-represented relative to even average case numbers - let alone relative to their northern neighbours ...

    Whatever the actual result, one thing that the US results unquestionably show is that this bland reporting of countries - and even the world - as a single, homogeneous population is completely false and distorts the results. Epidemiologists and public health experts know this fact of course - which buggers me completely as to why they are still allowed to keep doing it - and, even worse, building policies on the back of it ...
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  • just some guy

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    Joelsim

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #405 on: April 05, 2020, 21:55 »
    Leaving this here with no comment

    China should be sued for $6.5 trillion for coronavirus damages says top UK think tank https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/china-should-be-sued-for-6-5-trillion-for-coronavirus-damages-says-top-uk-think-tank-20200405-p54h5b.html

    The Henry Jackson Society is very conservative, not a nice bunch.
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  • Joelsim

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    Joelsim

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #407 on: April 05, 2020, 21:57 »
    Boris Johnson has been taken to hospital for tests.
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #408 on: April 06, 2020, 02:28 »
    Boris Johnson has been taken to hospital for tests.
    That was on the national evening news here as well. Seems several days of an unrelenting high fever has caused concern. Considering how quickly this virus is known to overtake even healthy individuals, I would imagine their concerns are warranted.

    Should anything happen to him, who would his replacement be?
    (Is there a default individual, or is it a yet-to-be-determined scenario?)


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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #409 on: April 06, 2020, 02:33 »
    A tiger at the Bronx Zoo tested positive for COVID-19 after coming into contact with an asymptomatic caretaker



    Quote
    Nadia, a four-year-old female tiger at the zoo tested positive, and the diagnosis was confirmed by the USDA's National Veterinary Services Laboratory, based in Ames, Iowa. The Wildlife Conservation Society said that Nadia, three other tigers, and three African lions have developed dry coughs and decreased appetite, but are expected to recover. None of the zoo's other big cats, including tigers in another area of the zoo, have shown any coronavirus symptoms.

    The cats were infected by a caretaker who had COVID-19 but was asymptomatic, according to the Wildlife Conservation Society.
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #410 on: April 06, 2020, 02:48 »
    I would be interested to compare the rest of the Gulf Coast and some of the other, dry/warm states...

    This just in:
    (With some insight)

    Louisiana parish has highest coronavirus death rate in US
    Quote
    Two Louisiana parishes are recording the highest death rates from coronavirus in the United States.

    The parishes, Louisiana’s term for counties, are St. John the Baptist Parish and Orleans Parish, which covers New Orleans.

    By state, only New York is higher than Louisiana in deaths per capita. Louisiana residents are more likely than almost any other state to have other chronic and preexisting conditions that make them more vulnerable to the coronavirus, contributing to the high fatality rate in the state, which has recorded over 13,000 cases and nearly 500 deaths.

    Louisiana residents are also more likely to be hospitalized after contracting the disease. According to Friday data, the state’s deaths-per-hospitalization rate is 22%, compared to 15% in New York City and 16% in Georgia.


    Also Louisiana:  :S

    Louisiana Church Holds Services, Defying Coronavirus Stay-At-Home Order

    Quote
    CENTRAL, La. (Reuters) - The pastor of the Life Tabernacle Church near Baton Rouge held services on Sunday in defiance of a stay-at-home order issued by Louisiana because of the coronavirus pandemic, telling worshippers they had "nothing to fear but fear itself."

    Pastor Tony Spell, who was arrested last week for holding services, summoned his faithful again, three weeks after the state's governor, John Bel Edwards, banned gatherings of 10 people or more.

    Hundreds of worshippers, about half of them black and half white, converged on the church, many arriving in 26 buses sent to pick them up. Everyone but immediate family members kept a social distance of at least six feet, a lawyer for the pastor said.
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #411 on: April 06, 2020, 03:25 »
    This is not nuthin'

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  • just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #412 on: April 06, 2020, 05:36 »
    "Indeed, people who did have comorbid conditions had a much higher ratio of dying from the disease, but in most people there were no other predictors, apart from age, that they could die."
     https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-06/coronavirus-mystery-why-does-it-affect-people-so-differently/12120842?pfmredir=sm
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #413 on: April 06, 2020, 08:22 »
    That was on the national evening news here as well. Seems several days of an unrelenting high fever has caused concern. Considering how quickly this virus is known to overtake even healthy individuals, I would imagine their concerns are warranted.

    Should anything happen to him, who would his replacement be?
    (Is there a default individual, or is it a yet-to-be-determined scenario?)




    I think Beelzebub is next in line to take over from him. Or it could be Dominic Raab.
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #414 on: April 06, 2020, 08:24 »
    This just in:
    (With some insight)

    Louisiana parish has highest coronavirus death rate in US

    Also Louisiana:  :S

    Louisiana Church Holds Services, Defying Coronavirus Stay-At-Home Order


    I don't know whether it's true but CNN were reporting that 14 US states have exempted religious gatherings from the lockdown ban. Nothing like religious zealots to do their bit.
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #415 on: April 06, 2020, 08:58 »
    I don't know whether it's true but CNN were reporting that 14 US states have exempted religious gatherings from the lockdown ban. Nothing like religious zealots to do their bit.

    If I were you, Joel, I'd be very worried right now.




    Just sayin'  :P :lol
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #416 on: April 06, 2020, 09:03 »
    It does have implications for me Huw, been chatting to another cat sitter about it this morning. Not that anyone really needs their cat feeding currently as no one is away.
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #417 on: April 06, 2020, 09:20 »
    Little Stockholm update. Statical model is saying 3 weeks of continued upwards curve and then we start to go near, rest of Sweden will be a little after.

    The Swedish Government is saying that until D plus 5 years until we can say which system worked best where.

    The field hospital has started taking Patients
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #418 on: April 06, 2020, 13:31 »
    Nothing like religious zealots to do their bit.

    It's a problem that may just take of itself, in the long run.
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #419 on: April 06, 2020, 13:58 »
    The message being sent out now is that we're approaching an apex point, and that people should refrain from even the grocery store or pharmacy. They're hoping for even stricter isolation. The problem with that is that we're now reaching beyond the point that most people's original buying frenzy was supposed to last them. Personal stockpiles are running low, and the stores have yet to be adequately restocked.

    On the social front, we're coming off a week of decent but not great weather, but starting today things are going to be quite nice. So even more people will be wanting to be outdoors. Yesterday I was riding around my local park, which consists a nice 5 to 6k paved loop,* with multiple extensions of dirt and gravel that form an outer perimeter. Very easy to spend hours hiking within, as I have done countless times over the years.

    As previously noted, it's been unusually busy there as of late, even during the weekdays. So I was surprised when I seemed to have the place to myself yesterday for my Sunday excursion. Instead of hundreds of people, there were perhaps a dozen total. When I reached the main parking area (I ride there, so don't use the main car entrance) the answer revealed itself: the police had blocked it off. They had no problem with my presence, or that of local pedestrians, but they wanted nothing of the vehicular traffic and the crowds that they bring. The good news is that the sun is out today, and I anticipate some wonderful riding without the obstacles of families, and pets on leashes.

    But it's weird. And if people can't even get outside to relax and decompress from the COVID-19 anxiety, they're going to snap. I've no idea where this is all leading. But I will be clocking in some serious distance on my bike in the meantime. If the world comes to an end, at least my form will be good.

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    * I believe I've mentioned this park before, but it really is a wonderful little route. I like to think of it as a mini-golf version of a Worlds course. It twists and turns, has a few short but challenging climbs, and a couple of zippy downhill sections. All of which are surrounded by scenic water and trees. It's the type of course that you can make as hard or easy as one chooses, depending on the effort applied. I have some nice video of one lap around that I took last Fall, with the foliage nicely highlighted. I hope to share that soon.

    Truth be told though, I've been spending more time as of late on the outer perimeter of dirt and gravel. For one thing, it's much less crowded than the paved sections. For another, it offers a much greater variety in terms of distance and levels of difficulty. It's a bit beyond cyclocross, and well into the realm of mountain bike trails. These are the exact same areas I used to ride my 29er hardtail on, but now I'm tackling them on a fixed-gear "road bike." And loving every moment of it.

     :)
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