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Drummer Boy

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just some guy

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
« Reply #421 on: April 06, 2020, 16:08 »
Little bit off down time today so we made 45 plastic face masks.

The young Elephants are doing a bad job of protection for the older. The rather large death toll is from older person homes in Sweden
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  • Of course, if this turns out someday to be the industry standard integrated handlebar-computer-braking solution then I'll eat my kevlar-reinforced aerodynamic hat.

    Larri Nov 12, 2014

    t-72

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #422 on: April 06, 2020, 16:14 »
    Somewhere earlier in the thread I reported cross country skiers started competing in «how far can you go» as GPS tracking and strava makes it possible to compete without elevated risks for virus transmissions. This bug has now infected cyclists too, here is today’s submitted ride.

    https://twitter.com/torjussleen/status/1247119099437682696
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #423 on: April 06, 2020, 16:34 »
    Looks like rain in Northern France this weekend
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  • just some guy

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    t-72

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #425 on: April 06, 2020, 19:43 »
    Looks like rain in Northern France this weekend

    That would typically be the year for the long awaited ‘next wet Paris-Roubaix’  - of course :fp
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  • Kiwirider

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #426 on: April 06, 2020, 20:05 »
    Curious.

    Interesting advjective ... why do you use that?

    Mathematically, the result makes sense - Germany has 1/4 of your population and 1/3 of your case count ...

    Please read what I am about to say as a whole - don't separate out the first sentence and react to it without reading the rest!

    And, without getting on my hobby horse again, that result makes sense, since really, your country isn't that affected by this disease.

    If you look at the case counts per million - 2 states in the North East are badly affected and are bearing the brunt of the infection.
    Their "neighbours" are moderately affected (MA, DC, MI, CT - and even PA, although that is less than the national average) - and then there are two states outside of this relatively narrow geographic region that are also bearing some burden - WA and LA.

    Get beyond these 9 states and the case ratio drops quickly to really quite low levels in the rest of the country.

    So, the disease is - for now at least - relatively localised or concentrated within the large land mass that is the US - which contrasts to the usual sort of "we're all going to die!!!!" messaging that most of the media that I've seen on both our and your side of the 49th portrays ...
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  • Mellow Velo

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    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.

    Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #428 on: April 06, 2020, 22:05 »
    Interesting adjective ... why do you use that?

    Only because I was genuinely "curious" about what the graph was showing.  :P

    I posted it before having the time to really analyze it, so I was just throwing it out there, with the intention of looking more closely when time allows—which hasn't yet happened for me.
     :D
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  • just some guy

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    Kiwirider

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #431 on: April 07, 2020, 13:30 »
    https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/politics/federal/warning-of-explosive-resurgence-of-covid-19-if-social-controls-relaxed-20200407-p54hyp.html

    Remember Aussie is in the southern hemisphere - so they are just starting their flu season, which means a completely different picture and set of demands on their system in general over the next 6 months compared to us north of the equator.

    Also remember that pretty much all of the modelling that has been put out around the world - including those that show a successful implementation of the current policy measures - are overstating the impact of the virus hugely.
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  • « Last Edit: April 07, 2020, 13:43 by Kiwirider »

    just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #432 on: April 07, 2020, 14:19 »
    114 deaths today as the results of CoVid-19 getting into the old people homes starts to show.

    They did some random testing in Sweden to see spread, results should be out next day or so.

    Testing is going to be ramped up to About 100 000 per week soon.

    We made another 40 plastic face masks
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  • just some guy

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    just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #434 on: April 07, 2020, 15:49 »
    A bit more on Sweden approach in the western media. No idea the normal political leaning of the publication.

    National Review: Has Sweden Found the Right Solution to the Coronavirus?.
    https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-sweden-avoids-isolation-economic-ruin/ 
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #435 on: April 07, 2020, 16:05 »
    No idea the normal political leaning of the publication.

    National Review?

    A pillar of the Right and Conservatives for decades. Started by none other than William F. Buckley Jr.
    That's not a judgement call on the article, just some historical background.

    There are some interesting points made in there, but it's just impossible to know who's wrong and who's right until months from now when hopefully much of this is behind us.

    I will say this though: If the U.S. policy turns out to be the wrong one, then they are risking any sort of public cooperation on any big issue moving forward. When the public is able to look back and reflect, and if businesses are shattered beyond repair, our leaders may very well find themselves with no one to lead, as no one will follow whatever their next plan of action is.
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  • M Gee

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #436 on: April 07, 2020, 16:15 »
    Interesting advjective ... why do you use that?

    Mathematically, the result makes sense - Germany has 1/4 of your population and 1/3 of your case count ...

    Please read what I am about to say as a whole - don't separate out the first sentence and react to it without reading the rest!

    And, without getting on my hobby horse again, that result makes sense, since really, your country isn't that affected by this disease.

    If you look at the case counts per million - 2 states in the North East are badly affected and are bearing the brunt of the infection.
    Their "neighbours" are moderately affected (MA, DC, MI, CT - and even PA, although that is less than the national average) - and then there are two states outside of this relatively narrow geographic region that are also bearing some burden - WA and LA.

    Get beyond these 9 states and the case ratio drops quickly to really quite low levels in the rest of the country.

    So, the disease is - for now at least - relatively localised or concentrated within the large land mass that is the US - which contrasts to the usual sort of "we're all going to die!!!!" messaging that most of the media that I've seen on both our and your side of the 49th portrays ...

    Nobody has ever said "we're all going to die". Not even Trump, with all his exaggerations. Alex Jones maybe.

    However, I have to wonder if you've thought this through. Before this is over, every one of us is going to have it - or very nearly so. This isn't just another strain of flu to which we have some partial immunity. We are like the native Americans in 1490 - vulnerable - no immunities whatsoever. All of us. Everyone. In every part of the world. Before it's done, you're going to know 5 people who've died as a result of contracting this virus. Oh, maybe they would have died in the next 10 years anyway, eh? Or they might have lived another 20.

    Look at how it has spread in 4 months. Just 4 months. And sooner or later - you are going to have it too. Unless you can manage to stay clear for the next 12-24 months, when they'll have a vaccine for it.
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  • . . .He had the bit between his teeth, and he loiked the taste, mate . . .

    Mellow Velo

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #437 on: April 07, 2020, 16:38 »
    Nobody has ever said "we're all going to die". Not even Trump, with all his exaggerations. Alex Jones maybe.

    However, I have to wonder if you've thought this through. Before this is over, every one of us is going to have it - or very nearly so. This isn't just another strain of flu to which we have some partial immunity. We are like the native Americans in 1490 - vulnerable - no immunities whatsoever. All of us. Everyone. In every part of the world. Before it's done, you're going to know 5 people who've died as a result of contracting this virus. Oh, maybe they would have died in the next 10 years anyway, eh? Or they might have lived another 20.

    Look at how it has spread in 4 months. Just 4 months. And sooner or later - you are going to have it too. Unless you can manage to stay clear for the next 12-24 months, when they'll have a vaccine for it.

    Where on earth have you picked up this Doomsday prophecy from?
    I ask as I haven't seen any figures that come close to suggesting that the virus is so efficiently infectious that close to 100% of the World's population will contract it at some point.
    In fact I have never heard of any virus being that effective.

    It sounds flaky to me because as yet most experts agree that we don't know enough about the virus accurate predictions about the final outcome, let alone one that is so cataclysmic.
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #438 on: April 07, 2020, 17:02 »
    Thanks DB thought they might be a bit right wing as they changed the Name of the Virus during the text. All the Swedish quotes were well translated though
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  • Kiwirider

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #439 on: April 07, 2020, 17:42 »
    Where on earth have you picked up this Doomsday prophecy from?
    I ask as I haven't seen any figures that come close to suggesting that the virus is so efficiently infectious that close to 100% of the World's population will contract it at some point.
    In fact I have never heard of any virus being that effective.

    It sounds flaky to me because as yet most experts agree that we don't know enough about the virus accurate predictions about the final outcome, let alone one that is so cataclysmic.

    What he said .... :cool :cool :cool

    To MGee
    Smallpox (which I assume is your reference to the Native American's is about) has up to a 75% CFR ... covid is about the same 0.1% as the flu - and that's the assumption based on the known, but not properly measured, under-recording of cases ...

    I know of a few people who are susceptible - including my partner's Dad and a really good mate of ours - but even with them I wouldn't be banking on covid killing them. I'd actually put  my money more on the cancers, heart conditions and general old age being the more likely factors.

    Most of us will get this disease - of that there is no question. Just like most - if not all of us - have had one of the other main strains of coronavirus that are out in the world - they're called "common cold" (truly ... they're a coronavirus according to one academic I read - someone who was involved in identifying/naming covid-19).

    And why is it that, after millions of years of our bodies using white blood cells and t-cells to fight disease, now our only way of being safe is a vaccine? Vaccines are a relatively new invention - yet we've been surviving bugs without them for as long as we've been on the planet (In fact, accepted advice for the flu is don't use a vaccine unless you're part of a vulnerable population ... which I'm sure will eventually - once the development costs of the vaccine have been recouped - be the advice here ...)

    So, yeah ... I have thought about it ... thanks for asking ...   ;) ;)

    (Oh, and the thing about "all going to die" in the media ...  I'm using hyperbole - exaggeration for effect  :shh)
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #440 on: April 07, 2020, 17:52 »
    Smallpox (which I assume is your reference to the Native American's is about) has up to a 75% CFR ... covid is about the same 0.1% as the flu - and that's the assumption based on the known, but not properly measured, under-recording of cases ...

    Kiwi, can you please stop to present your personal opinion as a fact?!

    you are entitled to believe whatever you want of course, but almost all studies so far came to a different result.
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    Kiwirider

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #441 on: April 07, 2020, 17:58 »
    Kiwi, can you please stop to present your personal opinion as a fact?!

    you are entitled to believe whatever you want of course, but almost all studies so far came to a different result.

    That's the information that I picked up from reports that have cited academics and others who are currently studying this bug ...

    So, no, it's not my opinion - it just varies from either the position that you have read or the position that you want to believe, or both ...
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #442 on: April 07, 2020, 18:00 »
    A little modelling with predictions Euro based only so took Sweden and the UK more mentioned in the report 

    Sweden: Deaths in Sweden are forecast to peak the last week of April, with an estimated 134 deaths on April 24. The model shows that Sweden will not have enough beds and ICU beds to meet demand, with the shortage peaking at 1,090 ICU beds on April 25, and predicts 4,182 total deaths in the country by August 4.UK: Deaths in the UK are forecast to peak the third week of April, with an estimated 2,932 deaths on April 17. The model shows that the UK will not have enough beds and ICU beds to meet demand, with the shortage peaking at 23,745 ICU beds on April 17, and predicts 66,314 total deaths in the country by August 4.

     

    http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #443 on: April 07, 2020, 18:14 »
    That's the information that I picked up from reports that have cited academics and others who are currently studying this bug ...

    So, no, it's not my opinion - it just varies from either the position that you have read or the position that you want to believe, or both ...

    yes, and most other academics came to a very different result. Just because you seem to live in your bubble only reading reports that neglect the danger of the virus, doesn't mean that this it the only truth.

    It's one potential outcome - one that I surely would prefer as well - but this doesn't mean that it can be seen as a fact
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  • Kiwirider

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #444 on: April 07, 2020, 18:24 »
    yes, and most other academics came to a very different result. Just because you seem to live in your bubble only reading reports that neglect the danger of the virus, doesn't mean that this it the only truth.

    It's one potential outcome - one that I surely would prefer as well - but this doesn't mean that it can be seen as a fact

    You make a bunch of assumptions which - considering you know nothing about me, my circle of contacts and even what I read - are actually baseless ...

    Read your last sentence and recognise that for the one finger that you point at me, there are three more pointing back at you ... and since you seem to be heavily influenced by quantity, perhaps there's a message in there for you ...
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #445 on: April 07, 2020, 18:51 »
    no, I read both sides of it (as well) with lots of interest, and at some point contradictory reports and findings will probably lead us to a truth that lies somewhere in the middle.

    This will take time though, maybe years, at the moment there are only indications. You read those differently than I do - and obviously you're free to discuss why you think so - but I still think it's not right to present those as facts
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #446 on: April 07, 2020, 19:00 »
    30 000 people in French Hospital system, over 7500 of those on respirators.

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #447 on: April 07, 2020, 19:27 »
    That's the information that I picked up from reports that have cited academics and others who are currently studying this bug

    at some point contradictory reports and findings will probably lead us to a truth that lies somewhere in the middle

    just to add an example, as you quoted the epidemiologist from New Zealand as one of your sources. Here is a view on his findings from another Professor, also from the university of Auckland:

    https://twitter.com/SiouxsieW/status/1244712154235879424
    https://twitter.com/SiouxsieW/status/1244712486181523457
    https://twitter.com/SiouxsieW/status/1244762803031830528

    so even at the very same university they can't come to a conclusion over this yet.
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #448 on: April 07, 2020, 21:43 »
     Hard to know what to believe these days.
    According to UK figures, there have been over 4,000 deaths since the start of the month, but not a single new recovery.
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  • Kiwirider

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #449 on: April 07, 2020, 23:31 »
    just to add an example, as you quoted the epidemiologist from New Zealand as one of your sources. Here is a view on his findings from another Professor, also from the university of Auckland:


    Siouxsie Wiles is first and foremost the owner of a science communications company.
    so even at the very same university they can't come to a conclusion over this yet.


    She is one of the "talking heads" who the media are turning to at the moment for their views on all things covid.
    I can't comment on her bona fides - so without casting aspersions on her integrity, I would say that there is definitely a party line that anyone in her position would be very well incentivised to take ...

    I will however say that, as she has made a business out of commenting on science topics that are well outside of the realm of her specific training - it is absolutely disingenuous of her to be criticising a colleague who is speaking on their area of training, albeit outside their specific research focus ...
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  • « Last Edit: April 08, 2020, 12:01 by Kiwirider »

     



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