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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
« Reply #390 on: April 06, 2020, 19:43 »
Looks like rain in Northern France this weekend

That would typically be the year for the long awaited ‘next wet Paris-Roubaix’  - of course :fp
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  • Mellow Velo

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    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.

    Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #392 on: April 06, 2020, 22:05 »
    Interesting adjective ... why do you use that?

    Only because I was genuinely "curious" about what the graph was showing.  :P

    I posted it before having the time to really analyze it, so I was just throwing it out there, with the intention of looking more closely when time allows—which hasn't yet happened for me.
     :D
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  • just some guy

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    Of course, if this turns out someday to be the industry standard integrated handlebar-computer-braking solution then I'll eat my kevlar-reinforced aerodynamic hat.

    Larri Nov 12, 2014


    just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #395 on: April 07, 2020, 14:19 »
    114 deaths today as the results of CoVid-19 getting into the old people homes starts to show.

    They did some random testing in Sweden to see spread, results should be out next day or so.

    Testing is going to be ramped up to About 100 000 per week soon.

    We made another 40 plastic face masks
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  • just some guy

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    just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #397 on: April 07, 2020, 15:49 »
    A bit more on Sweden approach in the western media. No idea the normal political leaning of the publication.

    National Review: Has Sweden Found the Right Solution to the Coronavirus?.
    https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-sweden-avoids-isolation-economic-ruin/ 
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #398 on: April 07, 2020, 16:05 »
    No idea the normal political leaning of the publication.

    National Review?

    A pillar of the Right and Conservatives for decades. Started by none other than William F. Buckley Jr.
    That's not a judgement call on the article, just some historical background.

    There are some interesting points made in there, but it's just impossible to know who's wrong and who's right until months from now when hopefully much of this is behind us.

    I will say this though: If the U.S. policy turns out to be the wrong one, then they are risking any sort of public cooperation on any big issue moving forward. When the public is able to look back and reflect, and if businesses are shattered beyond repair, our leaders may very well find themselves with no one to lead, as no one will follow whatever their next plan of action is.
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  • M Gee

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #399 on: April 07, 2020, 16:15 »
    Interesting advjective ... why do you use that?

    Mathematically, the result makes sense - Germany has 1/4 of your population and 1/3 of your case count ...

    Please read what I am about to say as a whole - don't separate out the first sentence and react to it without reading the rest!

    And, without getting on my hobby horse again, that result makes sense, since really, your country isn't that affected by this disease.

    If you look at the case counts per million - 2 states in the North East are badly affected and are bearing the brunt of the infection.
    Their "neighbours" are moderately affected (MA, DC, MI, CT - and even PA, although that is less than the national average) - and then there are two states outside of this relatively narrow geographic region that are also bearing some burden - WA and LA.

    Get beyond these 9 states and the case ratio drops quickly to really quite low levels in the rest of the country.

    So, the disease is - for now at least - relatively localised or concentrated within the large land mass that is the US - which contrasts to the usual sort of "we're all going to die!!!!" messaging that most of the media that I've seen on both our and your side of the 49th portrays ...

    Nobody has ever said "we're all going to die". Not even Trump, with all his exaggerations. Alex Jones maybe.

    However, I have to wonder if you've thought this through. Before this is over, every one of us is going to have it - or very nearly so. This isn't just another strain of flu to which we have some partial immunity. We are like the native Americans in 1490 - vulnerable - no immunities whatsoever. All of us. Everyone. In every part of the world. Before it's done, you're going to know 5 people who've died as a result of contracting this virus. Oh, maybe they would have died in the next 10 years anyway, eh? Or they might have lived another 20.

    Look at how it has spread in 4 months. Just 4 months. And sooner or later - you are going to have it too. Unless you can manage to stay clear for the next 12-24 months, when they'll have a vaccine for it.
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  • . . .He had the bit between his teeth, and he loiked the taste, mate . . .

    Mellow Velo

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #400 on: April 07, 2020, 16:38 »
    Nobody has ever said "we're all going to die". Not even Trump, with all his exaggerations. Alex Jones maybe.

    However, I have to wonder if you've thought this through. Before this is over, every one of us is going to have it - or very nearly so. This isn't just another strain of flu to which we have some partial immunity. We are like the native Americans in 1490 - vulnerable - no immunities whatsoever. All of us. Everyone. In every part of the world. Before it's done, you're going to know 5 people who've died as a result of contracting this virus. Oh, maybe they would have died in the next 10 years anyway, eh? Or they might have lived another 20.

    Look at how it has spread in 4 months. Just 4 months. And sooner or later - you are going to have it too. Unless you can manage to stay clear for the next 12-24 months, when they'll have a vaccine for it.

    Where on earth have you picked up this Doomsday prophecy from?
    I ask as I haven't seen any figures that come close to suggesting that the virus is so efficiently infectious that close to 100% of the World's population will contract it at some point.
    In fact I have never heard of any virus being that effective.

    It sounds flaky to me because as yet most experts agree that we don't know enough about the virus accurate predictions about the final outcome, let alone one that is so cataclysmic.
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #401 on: April 07, 2020, 17:02 »
    Thanks DB thought they might be a bit right wing as they changed the Name of the Virus during the text. All the Swedish quotes were well translated though
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #402 on: April 07, 2020, 17:52 »
    Smallpox (which I assume is your reference to the Native American's is about) has up to a 75% CFR ... covid is about the same 0.1% as the flu - and that's the assumption based on the known, but not properly measured, under-recording of cases ...

    Kiwi, can you please stop to present your personal opinion as a fact?!

    you are entitled to believe whatever you want of course, but almost all studies so far came to a different result.
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    just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #403 on: April 07, 2020, 18:00 »
    A little modelling with predictions Euro based only so took Sweden and the UK more mentioned in the report 

    Sweden: Deaths in Sweden are forecast to peak the last week of April, with an estimated 134 deaths on April 24. The model shows that Sweden will not have enough beds and ICU beds to meet demand, with the shortage peaking at 1,090 ICU beds on April 25, and predicts 4,182 total deaths in the country by August 4.UK: Deaths in the UK are forecast to peak the third week of April, with an estimated 2,932 deaths on April 17. The model shows that the UK will not have enough beds and ICU beds to meet demand, with the shortage peaking at 23,745 ICU beds on April 17, and predicts 66,314 total deaths in the country by August 4.

     

    http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #404 on: April 07, 2020, 18:14 »
    That's the information that I picked up from reports that have cited academics and others who are currently studying this bug ...

    So, no, it's not my opinion - it just varies from either the position that you have read or the position that you want to believe, or both ...

    yes, and most other academics came to a very different result. Just because you seem to live in your bubble only reading reports that neglect the danger of the virus, doesn't mean that this it the only truth.

    It's one potential outcome - one that I surely would prefer as well - but this doesn't mean that it can be seen as a fact
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #405 on: April 07, 2020, 18:51 »
    no, I read both sides of it (as well) with lots of interest, and at some point contradictory reports and findings will probably lead us to a truth that lies somewhere in the middle.

    This will take time though, maybe years, at the moment there are only indications. You read those differently than I do - and obviously you're free to discuss why you think so - but I still think it's not right to present those as facts
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #406 on: April 07, 2020, 19:00 »
    30 000 people in French Hospital system, over 7500 of those on respirators.

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #407 on: April 07, 2020, 19:27 »
    That's the information that I picked up from reports that have cited academics and others who are currently studying this bug

    at some point contradictory reports and findings will probably lead us to a truth that lies somewhere in the middle

    just to add an example, as you quoted the epidemiologist from New Zealand as one of your sources. Here is a view on his findings from another Professor, also from the university of Auckland:

    https://twitter.com/SiouxsieW/status/1244712154235879424
    https://twitter.com/SiouxsieW/status/1244712486181523457
    https://twitter.com/SiouxsieW/status/1244762803031830528

    so even at the very same university they can't come to a conclusion over this yet.
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #408 on: April 07, 2020, 21:43 »
     Hard to know what to believe these days.
    According to UK figures, there have been over 4,000 deaths since the start of the month, but not a single new recovery.
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #409 on: April 08, 2020, 01:11 »
    ...let alone one that is so cataclysmic.

    But it made for some very exciting reading! :o
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #411 on: April 08, 2020, 07:34 »

    Siouxsie Wiles is first and foremost the owner of a science communications company.

    She is one of the "talking heads" who the media are turning to at the moment for their views on all things covid.
    I can't comment on her bona fides - so without casting aspersions on her integrity, I would say that there is definitely a party line that anyone in her position would be very well incentivised to take ...

    it was just supposed to be one example for a current state full of contradictory opinions, there's no need to discredit her. The way I understood media reports discussing that topic, it's completely normal in an early stage of a new disease. Numbers are read in different ways, factors leading to a projection are weighted differently, and so on.

    As I mentioned somewhere above, I also think that it's right to question the governments decisions and not to start following them blindly, but just assuming you're right while everyone else isn't because he is taking a "party line", seems like a bit of narrow view to me.

    BTW - as I said up thread ... I worked in Asia all last year and returned home with an ARS and a bunch of related symptoms that cleared up after about 3 weeks.

    and yeah, this seems to be one of the difficulties, that the desease is developing so differently, and it doesn't seem to be quite clear yet why this is the case. Personally I only know one person who tested positive, and for him (although he's only ~30, quite fit, doing sports, non-smoker and so on), and he had a very hard time for over two weeks. Even late on there were days where he was barely able to breath*. And according to him, worst thing is that you're basically alone with it, not knowing what to do, or how to deal with it. There was no doctor coming to visit him or so, due to the high risk of getting infected.

    It's just one example of course, but personally I have never had any kind of bug like this.

    (* I just read an article that this seems to be a normal development btw. For the first week or so the upper airways are affected, and then it either gets better, or is moves further into your lungs, meaning that you're likely to have a hard time)
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Echoes

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #413 on: April 08, 2020, 09:23 »
    <<facepalm>>

    https://nypost.com/2020/04/04/twins-in-india-named-corona-and-covid-after-the-deadly-virus/

    Twins in India named Corona and Covid after the deadly virus
    By Jon LevineApril 4, 2020

    Meet Corona and Covid, newborn twins in India named after the deadly novel coronavirus spreading around the globe.

    The siblings, a boy and a girl, were born on March 27 to Preeti and Vinay Verma in the Indian state of Chhattisgarh, according to Sky News.

    “The delivery happened after facing several difficulties and therefore, my husband and I wanted to make the day memorable,” mom Preeti Verma told Press Trust of India, reported by Sky News.

    The couple made the decision, she said, after hospital workers began referring to the babies as Corona and Covid.

    So far, India has reported 3,082 cases and 86 deaths.

    The country’s 1.3 billion residents have been put on lockdown by the central government, with only trips to supermarkets and pharmacies permitted.
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    just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #414 on: April 08, 2020, 10:05 »
    Ok so some of the results of the testing have come in

    Lindköping hospital.

    They tested everyone in the operation department.

    50% were +ve none of them had any symptoms.

    They were all sent home, and information has been stated that you should not draw conclusion
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #415 on: April 08, 2020, 10:11 »
    Ok so some of the results of the testing have come in

    Lindköping hospital.

    They tested everyone in the operation department.

    50% were +ve none of them had any symptoms.

    They were all sent home, and information has been stated that you should not draw conclusion

    Blimey. Do you have a link please mate?
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #416 on: April 08, 2020, 10:23 »
    The only piece I can find suggests 50 were tested and ‘5 to 10’ were positive with either no symptoms or mild symptoms. Not entirely sure what ‘5 to 10’ means though.  :o
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  • just some guy

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    Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #418 on: April 08, 2020, 10:46 »
    That is 1 way to put it :lol

    I think they need to hire Samuel L. Jackson to so some PSAs.

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #419 on: April 08, 2020, 10:56 »
    Meet Corona and Covid, newborn twins in India named after the deadly novel coronavirus spreading around the globe.

    The siblings, a boy and a girl, were born on March 27 to Preeti and Vinay Verma in the Indian state of Chhattisgarh, according to Sky News.

    I hope they chose wisely between the two.

    "Corona" sounds more like a girl's name, like "Sharona."

    And "Covid" sounds more like a boy's name, like "David."



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