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Drummer Boy

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
« Reply #450 on: April 08, 2020, 01:11 »
...let alone one that is so cataclysmic.

But it made for some very exciting reading! :o
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  • Kiwirider

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #451 on: April 08, 2020, 02:33 »
    Just 4 months. And sooner or later - you are going to have it too. Unless you can manage to stay clear for the next 12-24 months, when they'll have a vaccine for it.

    BTW - as I said up thread ... I worked in Asia all last year and returned home with an ARS and a bunch of related symptoms that cleared up after about 3 weeks. My doc and a couple of friends who are doctors are pretty certain that I've already had it ... but, as all of this was before testing ramped up over here - we'll never know ...  :shh
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  • just some guy

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    Of course, if this turns out someday to be the industry standard integrated handlebar-computer-braking solution then I'll eat my kevlar-reinforced aerodynamic hat.

    Larri Nov 12, 2014

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #453 on: April 08, 2020, 07:34 »

    Siouxsie Wiles is first and foremost the owner of a science communications company.

    She is one of the "talking heads" who the media are turning to at the moment for their views on all things covid.
    I can't comment on her bona fides - so without casting aspersions on her integrity, I would say that there is definitely a party line that anyone in her position would be very well incentivised to take ...

    it was just supposed to be one example for a current state full of contradictory opinions, there's no need to discredit her. The way I understood media reports discussing that topic, it's completely normal in an early stage of a new disease. Numbers are read in different ways, factors leading to a projection are weighted differently, and so on.

    As I mentioned somewhere above, I also think that it's right to question the governments decisions and not to start following them blindly, but just assuming you're right while everyone else isn't because he is taking a "party line", seems like a bit of narrow view to me.

    BTW - as I said up thread ... I worked in Asia all last year and returned home with an ARS and a bunch of related symptoms that cleared up after about 3 weeks.

    and yeah, this seems to be one of the difficulties, that the desease is developing so differently, and it doesn't seem to be quite clear yet why this is the case. Personally I only know one person who tested positive, and for him (although he's only ~30, quite fit, doing sports, non-smoker and so on), and he had a very hard time for over two weeks. Even late on there were days where he was barely able to breath*. And according to him, worst thing is that you're basically alone with it, not knowing what to do, or how to deal with it. There was no doctor coming to visit him or so, due to the high risk of getting infected.

    It's just one example of course, but personally I have never had any kind of bug like this.

    (* I just read an article that this seems to be a normal development btw. For the first week or so the upper airways are affected, and then it either gets better, or is moves further into your lungs, meaning that you're likely to have a hard time)
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #455 on: April 08, 2020, 09:23 »
    <<facepalm>>

    https://nypost.com/2020/04/04/twins-in-india-named-corona-and-covid-after-the-deadly-virus/

    Twins in India named Corona and Covid after the deadly virus
    By Jon LevineApril 4, 2020

    Meet Corona and Covid, newborn twins in India named after the deadly novel coronavirus spreading around the globe.

    The siblings, a boy and a girl, were born on March 27 to Preeti and Vinay Verma in the Indian state of Chhattisgarh, according to Sky News.

    “The delivery happened after facing several difficulties and therefore, my husband and I wanted to make the day memorable,” mom Preeti Verma told Press Trust of India, reported by Sky News.

    The couple made the decision, she said, after hospital workers began referring to the babies as Corona and Covid.

    So far, India has reported 3,082 cases and 86 deaths.

    The country’s 1.3 billion residents have been put on lockdown by the central government, with only trips to supermarkets and pharmacies permitted.
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    just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #456 on: April 08, 2020, 10:05 »
    Ok so some of the results of the testing have come in

    Lindköping hospital.

    They tested everyone in the operation department.

    50% were +ve none of them had any symptoms.

    They were all sent home, and information has been stated that you should not draw conclusion
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #457 on: April 08, 2020, 10:11 »
    Ok so some of the results of the testing have come in

    Lindköping hospital.

    They tested everyone in the operation department.

    50% were +ve none of them had any symptoms.

    They were all sent home, and information has been stated that you should not draw conclusion

    Blimey. Do you have a link please mate?
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #458 on: April 08, 2020, 10:23 »
    The only piece I can find suggests 50 were tested and ‘5 to 10’ were positive with either no symptoms or mild symptoms. Not entirely sure what ‘5 to 10’ means though.  :o
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #460 on: April 08, 2020, 10:46 »
    That is 1 way to put it :lol

    I think they need to hire Samuel L. Jackson to so some PSAs.

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #461 on: April 08, 2020, 10:56 »
    Meet Corona and Covid, newborn twins in India named after the deadly novel coronavirus spreading around the globe.

    The siblings, a boy and a girl, were born on March 27 to Preeti and Vinay Verma in the Indian state of Chhattisgarh, according to Sky News.

    I hope they chose wisely between the two.

    "Corona" sounds more like a girl's name, like "Sharona."

    And "Covid" sounds more like a boy's name, like "David."



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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #462 on: April 08, 2020, 13:46 »
    Swedish experiment update.

    Stockholm has potentially started to flatten the curve,

    Most issues in Stockholm are in those older people homes. Of people over 70 years old 33% have got CoVid-19 from older people home = 40% of those have died.

    In the rest of Sweden the young have not spread CoVid-19 to the old Elephants 5% of the over 70 live in older people homes.

    The rest of Sweden the infection curve is still increasing

    There is now discussion going on between 4 Scandinavian countries to see which approach is working the best
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  • Kiwirider

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #463 on: April 08, 2020, 14:53 »
    it was just supposed to be one example for a current state full of contradictory opinions, there's no need to discredit her.
    But, hang on ... you were putting her up to discredit what her colleague said ... you don't get to have it both ways ...  :angel

    And do realise that there are a bunch of people who are already making a good return (financial or otherwise) on the covid industry - including "academic experts", public health experts and drug companies ...

    Again, not saying that she is hunting cash, but remember I made a comment a couple of weeks back about a conversation with a top Canadian epidemiologist? That person said that they couldn't watch their colleagues on TV due to the crap that was being spouted as those colleagues were putting truth (in the sense of fundamentals of epidemiology, not about covid per se) second to conduct that helped them to make cases for funding.

    Similarly there was that story of researchers getting over C$1m to study covid's impact on indigenous communities - when those same communities can't get a fraction of that to fix the poisoned water supplies on their reserve lands that are making them ill or killing them ...

    In that environment, anyone who doesn't toe the party line and/or gets people questioning and thinking is dangerous ... and we have already seen people who speak out being subjected to the full force of a pretty vicious international "knocking machine".
    (I mean, they even killed the UK's policy approach ... so if sovereign governments can't stand up to this sort of force, who else can??)
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #464 on: April 08, 2020, 14:57 »
    Swedish experiment update.

    Stockholm has potentially started to flatten the curve,

    That is good news JSG - here's hoping that the trend continues and its scope widens across the country.

    Question for the Dutch members of the forum - I remember reading a piece that said that your national policy was pretty similar to the Swedish model, but haven't heard anything about it (even though Sweden has made the press over here).

    Is it the case that you are taking a similar approach?
    And, if so, what's the general mood, level of support, etc? (Would be interesting to compare to some of the comments that JSG has relayed ...)
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #465 on: April 08, 2020, 15:33 »
    But, hang on ... you were putting her up to discredit what her colleague said ... you don't get to have it both ways ...  :angel

    And do realise that there are a bunch of people who are already making a good return (financial or otherwise) on the covid industry - including "academic experts", public health experts and drug companies ...

    Again, not saying that she is hunting cash, but remember I made a comment a couple of weeks back about a conversation with a top Canadian epidemiologist? That person said that they couldn't watch their colleagues on TV due to the crap that was being spouted as those colleagues were putting truth (in the sense of fundamentals of epidemiology, not about covid per se) second to conduct that helped them to make cases for funding.

    yeah, I also mentioned that myself a week ago or so as well.

    And there's no need to look up all kind of stuff to discredit her because I'm not able or interested in dicussing it with you anyway, that's what I mean. I know nothing about her, her work, or her ethics. I just posted it to show that not even at one single university scientists can come to a conclusion about the danger of the virus.
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #466 on: April 08, 2020, 17:15 »
    Swedish experiment update.

    Stockholm has potentially started to flatten the curve,

    Most issues in Stockholm are in those older people homes. Of people over 70 years old 33% have got CoVid-19 from older people home = 40% of those have died.

    In the rest of Sweden the young have not spread CoVid-19 to the old Elephants 5% of the over 70 live in older people homes.

    The rest of Sweden the infection curve is still increasing

    There is now discussion going on between 4 Scandinavian countries to see which approach is working the best

    Yup.

    Stories like this are becoming all too frequent and here is the latest one from the Beeb:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-52175891

    15 deaths, but read on and it could well be 25 out of 69 beds.
    I spent most days of 4 years visiting a residential care home and without question, 90% of deaths occurred over the winter period. Mostly from what one would describe as minor ailments for the majority of the population.
    Hardly surprising therefore, that coronavirus is a death sentence in these establishments.
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #468 on: April 08, 2020, 19:02 »
    Question for the Dutch members of the forum - I remember reading a piece that said that your national policy was pretty similar to the Swedish model, but haven't heard anything about it (even though Sweden has made the press over here).

    Is it the case that you are taking a similar approach?

    Florry may give better insights, but for a start: those plans were abanoned after a couple of days. At the moment they have one of the highest death rates in Europa (~10% or so - although they don't seem to do much testing - 4000 tests a day, which is the same Austria does for half the population - which is likely to have a huge influence on the numbers of course) and Germany has taken something like ~50 ICU patients, so I guess they are at the limit with their capacities in the highly affected parts of the country.
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #469 on: April 09, 2020, 07:00 »
    https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1247940339794694147?

    As understanding increases Goal posts are moving, not unexpected

    I think the long term of this will be major hospitals will have CoVid-19 wards permanently, there will be new outbreaks from season to season. Some will survive only to be infected again. Those with lower immunity will want to be very careful. Vaccine shots may end up being a yearly thing.

    Just a few rambled thoughts
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #470 on: April 09, 2020, 08:55 »
    as already expected, studies have now shown that air pollution is a major factor leading to more death or serious illness from Covid-19

    “This study provides evidence that counties that have more polluted air will experience higher risks of death for Covid-19,” said Francesca Dominici, a professor of biostatistics at Harvard who led the study.

    Counties with higher pollution levels, Dr. Dominici said, “will be the ones that will have higher numbers of hospitalizations, higher numbers of deaths and where many of the resources should be concentrated.”


    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/07/climate/air-pollution-coronavirus-covid.html
    https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/covid-pm
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #471 on: April 09, 2020, 10:45 »
    in Germany, first intermediate results from the cluster study in Gangelt (PCR tests, antibody tests and so on in a small city in the Kreis Heinsberg, one of the most affected parts in Germany - some information in English can be found here) have just been presented (in a Videostream (in German)).

    The representative study came to the result that the infection rate in Gangelt is 15%, leading to a mortality rate of 0,38% among those infected by Covid-19.

    Another thing I found interested is, that based on their findings so far, they think that the degree of severity of a person's disease is (among others) based on the number of pathogens he picked up. So if I understood this correctly, by keeping that number low due to a more controlled infection process, it could potentially be possible to achieve herd immunity at a lower death rate.
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  • « Last Edit: April 09, 2020, 11:04 by search »

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #472 on: April 09, 2020, 12:18 »
    as already expected, studies have now shown that air pollution is a major factor leading to more death or serious illness from Covid-19

    True! a study led by the University of Bari and that of Bologna led to that conclusion too. The virus could be spread via air pollution and especially fine particulates that you can find in the area of Wuhan, in Lombardy and in Alsace, too. Brescia is one of the most polluted town in Italy and so is Mulhouse in France. Mulhouse is where it all started for France (it seems that it was due to a gathering of an evangelical group), the 5th most polluted town in the country while only the 34th largest town in terms of population. It also seems that the winds might play a role in bringing up that pollution to some places near to the mountains, as happened in Iran. Big cities like Tehran are heavily polluted and infected by the virus. Same for the Po Valley in Italy. Same for the Rhine Valley at the French German border! So you have the Southern winds pushing all the fine particulates from the French industrial areas alongside the foothills of the Jura and the Vosges, all the way to Mulhouse, while Northern winds brings pollution from German industrial areas also down there in Mulhouse, which is really badly situated in this respect.
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #473 on: April 09, 2020, 13:13 »
    Another thing I found interested is, that based on their findings so far, they think that the degree of severity of a person's disease is (among others) based on the number of pathogens he picked up.

    "The number of pathogens." What does this mean? Is it the equivalent of getting a "heavier dose" of coronavirus?
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #474 on: April 09, 2020, 13:43 »
    True! a study led by the University of Bari and that of Bologna led to that conclusion too. The virus could be spread via air pollution and especially fine particulates that you can find in the area of Wuhan, in Lombardy and in Alsace, too. Brescia is one of the most polluted town in Italy and so is Mulhouse in France. Mulhouse is where it all started for France (it seems that it was due to a gathering of an evangelical group), the 5th most polluted town in the country while only the 34th largest town in terms of population. It also seems that the winds might play a role in bringing up that pollution to some places near to the mountains, as happened in Iran. Big cities like Tehran are heavily polluted and infected by the virus. Same for the Po Valley in Italy. Same for the Rhine Valley at the French German border! So you have the Southern winds pushing all the fine particulates from the French industrial areas alongside the foothills of the Jura and the Vosges, all the way to Mulhouse, while Northern winds brings pollution from German industrial areas also down there in Mulhouse, which is really badly situated in this respect.

    You could also make the connection that most of the most polluted areas are also the most densely populated.
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #475 on: April 09, 2020, 14:08 »
    "The number of pathogens." What does this mean? Is it the equivalent of getting a "heavier dose" of coronavirus?

    yeah, that's what I meant to say. My English isn't good enough to be fluent the medical terms (and that seemed to be the most fitting one I found in the dictionaries)
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #476 on: April 09, 2020, 14:25 »
    https://twitter.com/KurtNiceHHL/status/1247707381909291013?

    That is 1 way to put it :lol
    Unfortunately, that guy isn't the Ugandan police chief, but apparently a Gambian living in New York.
    :shh
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    just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #477 on: April 09, 2020, 14:48 »
    Really haha
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #478 on: April 09, 2020, 14:49 »
    Some of the results of the random testing in Stockholm have come back. 2.5% had +ve to CoVid-19

    Edit as this was done a week ago, they have said that with their model they extrapolate that too mean about 10% or slightly higher have been infected in Stockholm. So about 120 000
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  • « Last Edit: April 09, 2020, 16:16 by just some guy »

    just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #479 on: April 09, 2020, 16:45 »
    Italy has set end of April as the time they will start reducing restrictions, if everything heads in the same way as it is heading now
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