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Joelsim

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Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
« Reply #660 on: June 21, 2020, 22:59 »
The ease of spreading in these meat plants really is a concern. There have been quite a few now where numbers have exploded.
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #661 on: June 21, 2020, 23:10 »
    yeah, in this case the enormous scale is a problem as well though, with more than 1000 workers indected and over 7000 quarantined. Usually Germany is running a "track and trace" kind of policy, but it's obviously almost impossible to find and isolate potential contacts for so many people newly infected at the same time.

    Maybe we're lucky and it mostly has spread inside the factory and the residential blocks so far, which would mean just closing the factory could more or less be enough to keep it under control, but if not, the situation could also escalate quickly.
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  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #662 on: June 22, 2020, 08:21 »
    Reuters saying Germany's R Value increasing fast.

    Was 1.79 now 2.88.

    If these trends continue right or wrong don't think we will see much cycling in 2020
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  • Of course, if this turns out someday to be the industry standard integrated handlebar-computer-braking solution then I'll eat my kevlar-reinforced aerodynamic hat.

    Larri Nov 12, 2014

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #663 on: June 22, 2020, 08:46 »
    well, infection numbers were fairly low before, so this big incident obviously has a massive influence on the R value. I wouldn't think it has much to say at the moment.
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #664 on: June 22, 2020, 17:16 »
    To be fair, the virus is here to stay, all the countries who’d got through it are getting new outbreaks including China, S Korea, Germany etc. It’s not going anywhere. Most countries can’t afford another lockdown.
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #665 on: June 22, 2020, 23:20 »
    The ease of spreading in these meat plants really is a concern. There have been quite a few now where numbers have exploded.

    Why is this happening? Is it understood?
    I could easily imagine a congested work environment with workers all in close proximity, but is there something more going on specific to that industry?

    Have they not been taking reasonable precautions, or are there other factors (known or unknown) in play?
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #666 on: June 23, 2020, 00:11 »
    I've really been wanting to contribute more consistently to this thread, especially as the spread and impact of the virus ebbs and flows. I was hoping to have a reasonably compact time line to look back upon. But in addition to just being overwhelmed with other aspects of life, I'm always trying to balance between staying informed and deliberately unplugging from all media coverage.

    For months on end, COVID-19 was the ONLY thing in the news, 24/7. There's only so much of that I could take.

    And then it was all about the protests and racial divisions, and suddenly COVID-19 wasn't all that important to the media after all. It got entirely sidelined for a short while. But now the numbers are rising again, and the daily din of "experts" and pundits have returned.

    For now, I can only reflect my personal perspective, and it's not good.
    Nothing is working. Nothing is functioning correctly. It's nearly impossible for me to get anything done.

    I am so thoroughly sick of having to sit across from bankers or attorneys, having no idea who I'm really dealing with because everyone is wearing mask. I can't even walk into my bank to make a simple transaction without an appointment.

    Many banks are shifting most of their daily interactions to the drive-through only, which is disastrous. It reminds me of the gasoline lines during the "energy crisis" of the 1970s—lines of cars waiting one-at-a-time for what used to be routine transactions. Typically, bank drive-throughs are simply not equipped, nor were they ever designed, for the heavy load of dozens and dozens of people doing their daily banking. It's a broken system with a half-baked solution in the works. One thing I had hoped to accomplish was assisting my mom in getting online access to her account. No joke, it took five days (and that was after spending 90 minutes inside a local branch). FIVE DAYS, in 2020, to get online access to a standard bank account. Excuse after excuse was offered, and how the tech department was "working from home," and not all calls were being returned. This is what I mean: things are not functioning.

    DMV (Department of Motor Vehicles)? Good luck. All their offices are still closed to the public, their website is inadequate, and when you call by phone, you're put endlessly on hold, with the occasional reminder that, "Due to heavy call load, wait times have increased." Yeah, no kidding. It's been weeks now trying to accomplish what should only take minutes.

    For the less important matters in life (depending on one's perspective), it's no better.
    My LBS said it would be at least 30 days to get my wheels trued. Bike shops have typically been overrun with maintenance and service requests as more and more people either discover or rediscover the benefits of cycling in the midst of these lock-downs. But I'm not even allowed to enter into the shop. All business in done from a tented area outside the store, and even then the staff is very weary of getting too close—even both they and the customers are wearing masks.

    I also need a new water bottle or two, but forget that. They have nothing in stock. I'm not sure if that's due to sudden demand, or the pandemic shutdowns interrupting the supply chain, but I suspect the later based on my luck elsewhere as well. I thought I might have better luck at my local REI (national chain of outdoor sports supplies), because I also need a new backpack. Well, they're only offering "curbside pickup" of items ordered ahead of time. Well that's not going to work for me. I need to see, feel and try on any backpack I intend on purchasing. Ya' know, like any normal person might prefer in a semi-normal world. But that's not what surrounds me.

    Next I stopped by the local running store in the hopes that they may have a cycling bottle (hoping for an appeal to the duathlete/triathlete market). I was "greeted" by a masked employee outside who immediately asked me if I had "an appointment." For the running store? Well, no. No, I did not have an appointment. Another failed attempt.

    Then there was my adventures with Verizon wireless, one of the biggest suppliers of mobile technology.
    Most of the local branches, bar one, have been closed entirely during the pandemic. At the one remaining store front, I apparently made the mistake of walking in, with gloves and mask, when there were already two customers in the store. So I was asked to leave, and to wait in my car. I gathered that they were hoping to maintain nothing more than a 1:1 ratio of customers to employees, as there were only two people working there at the time.

    OK. I get it. I'll wait outside. But "in my car?" Nah, I'm good. I'll just sort of hang around until someone from inside the store leaves.

    Shifting to the more social and leisurely side of things:
    I had vowed not to return to any pubs or restaurants until things became normal again, because I didn't want to be served by someone with a face mask, and I didn't want to feel forbidden to strike up a conversation with a stranger, especially if that involved crossing an invisible line of death.

    But I also thought it might be important to do my part to get things rolling again, and I could really, really use the distraction and diversion of being around some people in public. The joke was on me, however. As we enter a new phase of re-opening, the same scene played itself out at several establishments.

    1) The only dining allowed is at outdoor tables. Which is fine, if not preferably in the summer months anyway.

    2) The town has actually been doing a fair bit to encourage this by blocking off and narrowing roads with concrete barriers in the center of town, even on the busiest streets, to allow for designated dining areas to extend further out from the restaurants than would normally be possible.

    But as I looked at a dozen or so empty tables, and no more than three occupied ones, I was told that there was a wait time of  90 minutes. But there was no one else around. Anywhere.
     :S

    I can only assume that those who had reserved tables were lurking somewhere nearby, anxiously awaiting their text notification indicating that their appointed table had been properly cleansed and sterilized before their arrival would be allowed?

    This scene repeated itself around town until I simply gave up and decided to resort to my previous mindset: I guess I'll just sit this out until the world represents something I recognize. And if it doesn't, then I'll have to adopt a "new normal" all my own that doesn't include much of the outside world.

    How has all this affected me?
    To be perfectly honest, it's not going well. I could easily offer a lengthy perspective in the "Are you OK" thread, but I decided to post an overview here (for now). I certainly feel that I'm fraying at the edges, and moving forward, in any meaningful way, is proving to be near impossible.

    I've still many, many more thoughts on how the pandemic is affecting life, and how different parts of the country are coping, or not. But I don't want to get too carried away just yet, so I'll end this post here.
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #667 on: June 23, 2020, 00:41 »
    Oh, in all that ranting, I actually forgot one of the more pressing and frustrating issues that I've been faced with in all of this.

    It's now going on six months that I've been trying to complete a root canal with new crown put in. Six months.

    I very nearly made it just under the wire before the state-wide shutdowns, but a few delays from the lab that manufactures the crown, and some unnecessary delays on the part of the dental school (the department is part of a larger "teaching hospital" which is an extension of the University of Connecticut), and here I am, still waiting, with half a tooth in my mouth, for the work to be completed.

    They've only just started to reach out to patients and reschedule appointments. However, I'm now faced with two obstacles to completing the required work.

    I suspect that after all this time, I'll need another crown to be manufactured, which will cause yet even more delays. Even if not, will they still even have my original crown that was supposedly completed ages ago?

    More significantly though, I'm facing a limited window on the time that I'll even be eligible for this particular insurance coverage. Had it been done months ago was it originally supposed to have been, then no problem. Moving forward? It gets more complicated by the month.

    Related to all that, here's an interesting news letter that the hospital just sent out:

    UConn Health Researchers Find a Simple Oral Rinse Can Inactivate the COVID-19 Virus

    Quote
    Faculty from UConn Health have proven that a simple method of rinsing with a diluted version of over-the-counter Povidone-Iodine (PVP-I) oral rinse can kill viruses like the SARS CoV-2 coronavirus and prevent transmission in as little as 15 seconds.

    The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a severe threat to the safety of dental and medical professionals who operate in the oral and nasal cavities. Dr. Avinash Bidra, clinical associate professor of prosthodontics at the School of Dental Medicine, and Dr. Belachew Tessema, associate professor in the division of otolaryngology at the UConn School of Medicine and ENT physician at ProHealth Physicians, and their team across the nation wanted to investigate a way to decontaminate the patient’s oral and nasal cavities to protect and prevent transmission.

    “We were not satisfied with the safety provided by the mouth masks and face shields,” says Bidra. “Almost all procedures involve aerosol production, resulting in a higher risk for clinicians, assistants, and patients.”


    The research was recently published in the American College of Prosthodontics Journal of Prosthodontics.

    “This is a simple and inexpensive method to protect oneself when coming in close contact with people,” says Bidra. “We believe this has immediate and tremendous dental public health impact for patients and for dental professionals, amidst the ongoing pandemic.”


    “The safety of povidone-iodine in the sinonasal and oral cavity has been well documented and we have shown that the SARS CoV-2 virus can be rapidly inactivated by a topical application,” says Tessema. “Studies have shown that the nasal and oropharyngeal cells are reservoirs for SARS-CoV2 infection. We believe that  nasal and oral decontamination with PVP-I may play an adjunctive role in mitigating viral transmission beyond PPE.”

    The researchers are also optimistic that this method can benefit those engaged in high risk activities outside of a dental or otolaryngologic setting.

    “Anyone engaging in risky activities like barbers, hair dressers, or anyone coming too close to another person, may benefit from this simple method,” said Bidra.
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  • AG

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #668 on: June 23, 2020, 01:40 »
    thinking of you DB.  Isolation and general societal issues are certainly making things tough.

    Here in Aus we are incredibly lucky.  At least on my side of the country anyway.  We have just announced that from next weekend most restrictions will be dropped.  Things like major sports events can go on, but at 50% stadium capacity.  Multi-stage music events also have a few restrictions ... and venues must have 2 square metres per person.

    From July 18 all restrictions will be dropped - except the hard border.   All people coming in (from inter-state or international) must quarantine in a hotel for 14 days.

    Life is pretty much getting back to normal for many people anyway.  Most businesses are open, most of those working from home are transitioning back to the office, and service industries are back to providing services as normal.   Tourism and events are not back yet ... but will be slowly getting there.  Certainly tourism, given the border restrictions, people are holidaying within WA much more than they ever have.

    My daughter is very happy as her dance is finally back to normal  (so sick of zoom classes), and she has a job working as an assistance coach for the younger girls which goes back this week as well :D

    As far as the news is concerned though - I agree with DB.  All we heard about for months on end was the corona virus ... and then the racial issues.  Now though, Australia seems very focussed on the fact that we are doing ok, and the economic issues of dealing with recovery, and the Monday Morning review on whether or not we should have shut things down, and whether we should be opening up sooner.  News of the rest of the world is pretty few and far between.   We get the occasional info that Brazil is really struggling, but reading the news media here, you would think the global pandemic is over.

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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #669 on: June 23, 2020, 07:53 »
     Pretty much the same here in all respects, DB, except we don't have the problem you have with restaurants and bars: ours are all still closed. :fp :D
     Took me 4 attempts on 4 different days to get into my local bank, only to find the couldn't cash a simple cheque, even though it was drawn on the same branch.

     Most worrying of all is dental treatment as it doesn't look as if that will ever return to normal. Emergency treatment should be available, but people here have even resorted to pulling their own teeth.

    Only yesterday, the lockdown on non-essential shops was lifted but worryingly most remained closed.

     These days our media only ever follows yours, so we have gone down the same Covid-Racism-Covid deluge.
    Under cover of recent BLM protests, here in the UK, the re-branding of our historical figures is very much in vogue. Pulling down or else demanding for the removal of statues of individuals who through the centuries helped put the "great" into Great Britain.
     21st century values applied to judge just one aspect of an individual's deeds during a much different era.

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  • « Last Edit: June 23, 2020, 08:08 by Mellow Velo »
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.

    Joelsim

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #670 on: June 23, 2020, 13:19 »
    I’ll add not having an income for three months to all of that. And minimal help from the government during that time as I’m a Limited Company Director. Have lost about 1,500 cat visits so far at £13 a pop, the help from the government totals £1,354.54 over that three month period or about 12% of my basic outgoings since lockdown. All savings gone, have had to ask family to help me out.
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #671 on: June 23, 2020, 15:30 »
    I had another experience worth mentioning as well.

    Our capital city of Hartford has a nationally recognized rose garden which consists of probably two acres of land—one main garden area and two sub-sections—surrounded by another two to three acres of walking paths and picnic areas.

    The roses come into full bloom in the month of June, and each year brings a substantial number of visitors, and proves to be quite a popular location for wedding photos as well as the occasional outdoor wedding itself.







    I have a particular fondness for the park as I used to live just one block away, and would spend many an early morning on a peaceful sunrise walk, in addition to countless concerts and other events that I've attended there over the years.

    But this year, COVID phobia has taken a firm hold. At least by the powers-that-be.
    On Mother's Day weekend, for example, no cars were allowed into the park at all. People could walk there on foot, but no vehicular entrance was permitted. Another brilliant "solution" to a problem that didn't really exist.

    The chained barrier to the car entrance hardly kept away the crowds. What it did do was create a mess of traffic along the main roads as everyone simply parked along the curb, outside the park, instead. For some reason, people driving through the park, well inside the confines of their own cars, was deemed more threatening to public health that everyone walking about freely.

    On a more recent visit, there was signs posted outside the main garden maze-like area requiring face masks to be worn by all, and of course for "social distancing" to be applied. In a display of reasonable sanity, most people on this one particularly low-attended afternoon simply ignored the signs. Very few people were closer than 15 to 20 steps from each other anyway, and things were going just fine. Until, that is, one schoolmarmish, suburban-looking housewife just couldn't resist her inner Kim Jong-un, and apparently felt the irrepressible urge to traverse the width of the park in order to scold a family of five who had the audacity to keep to themselves, away from everyone else, to take some family photos...without donning the magical, miraculous and oh-so-necessary requisite face masks.

    How dare they!

    Of course she let it be known that she wasn't the one establishing the protocol, it was the sign! The sign said it!

    Rewardingly enough, the family simply ignored the unwanted intrusion. But this is what we've become. To me, this is a direct extension of the absurdity of newscasters wearing face masks, in all their virtue-signaling glory, while not another human is even within shouting distance. There's a time and a place for everything, but I would humbly suggest that when only a very light crowd is present in an outdoor park, imposing mandatory face coverings does little for anyone, and if anything, only has negative impacts on the fabric of society.

    Incidents such as these only add to my frustration. I just find it all terribly discouraging and disappointing on so many levels. As I stated somewhere upthread, I was initially encouraged, and somewhat proud, at how people were behaving towards each other in the early stages of the pandemic. But once face mask became mandatory in public, everything inexplicably changed. Neighbors are now looked at with suspicion, and strangers are greeted with an air of contempt. Not by everyone, but it's prevalent enough to be alarming.

    I still know of some people who are quarantining their mail and newspapers for three days for fear that the deadly COVID is lying in wait. The printed newspaper is already hours behind the digital news cycle, so I can't imagine reading the headlines 72 hours after-the-fact. But that's the level of concern paranoia that some folks have.

    This is definitely the strangest time of my life. 
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  • Joelsim

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #672 on: June 23, 2020, 19:20 »
    For some reason I can’t attach an image, says that the upload folder is full.

    So, here’s a link, somewhat stark.

    https://www.facebook.com/2126073340865034/posts/3204513783020979/
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #673 on: June 23, 2020, 21:24 »
    Most worrying of all is dental treatment as it doesn't look as if that will ever return to normal. Emergency treatment should be available, but people here have even resorted to pulling their own teeth.
    Here in Germany, dental appointments are up and running again, even for your usual yearly check-up.

    But this is what we've become.
    Madness. :S

    There is no point in wearing a face mask when you're just with the people in your own household, and far from anyone else.

    That said, there is also no point in wearing a face mask that covers the mouth, but not the nose, as I regularly see people do it. It is one and the same respirational system! :slow
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    Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #674 on: June 24, 2020, 01:04 »
    There is no point in wearing a face mask when you're just with the people in your own household, and far from anyone else.

    One recent headline in the Hartford Courant read:

    Gatherings of up to 10 people now allowed in homes

    How very generous of them!  :cool

    How very, very...North Korean of them.  :angry

    The overreach of local governments is off the rails. I never imagined such a state of things even possible in these United States of America.

    This is not the country I grew up in.   :wut

    Not even close.


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  • just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #675 on: June 24, 2020, 12:49 »
    R value update for Sweden.

    0.91
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  • Drummer Boy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #676 on: June 24, 2020, 23:37 »
    In the continuing saga of State vs State...

    New York, New Jersey, Connecticut impose 14-day quarantine on travelers from Covid-19 hotspots

    Quote
    Governors from New York, New Jersey and Connecticut held a press conference today to announce a new travel advisory that requires a 14-day quarantine for travelers coming from coronavirus hotspots. The goal is to stop a return of the virus in the tri-state area, as the three states continue their phased reopenings.
    "Hotspots" include these nine states:

    Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Washington, Utah and Texas.



    Numbers are soaring in many states, so what used to be the danger zones (the Tri-state area) are now hoping to become sanctuaries of healing and recovery. Florida, for one, only just imposed mandatory face masks in public this past week, so no surprise that their situation is only getting worse.

    We are a long, long way from getting a handle on this mess.
     :wut

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #677 on: June 25, 2020, 07:41 »
    And yes, in some of them - Texas, we're looking at you - the growth in cases has been significant. But, if you look at the death figures there, you'll see that, for now at least, they're basically constant. Similar comments can be made about Florida and California. (The other states haven't seen that same scale of jump in cases.)

    people don't die immediately after infection though, so the death rate is more of a refleciton of the situation ~three weeks ago. In California (for example) numbers exploded mainly over the past two weeks, so you may see more of an influence at the beginning of July.
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #678 on: June 25, 2020, 17:05 »
    No excess deaths statistically speaking at the moment.

    We still get CoVid-19 deaths but less death from other reasons.

    Also mobile phone companies showing that Swedes are travelling less than our Nordic neighbours, which we be interesting to see what happens with spreading
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #679 on: June 26, 2020, 14:08 »
    WHO has named 11 countries in Europe recommend not to travel too, especially in Autumn.

    Sweden is one but not the UK. Which is interesting.
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #680 on: June 26, 2020, 14:46 »
    well, +recent infection numbers in Sweden per 100.000 are six times as high as in the UK
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  • just some guy

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #681 on: June 26, 2020, 15:29 »
    There has been a massive upswing in testing. There are 171 in intensive care with CoVid-19.

    Looking at the stats and then saying the health system won't cope in Autumn. The number of critical sick is dropping.

    I think some of it is because Sweden went a different approach to what WHO recommend but that might be me.
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #682 on: June 26, 2020, 16:36 »
    There has been a massive upswing in testing. There are 171 in intensive care with CoVid-19.

    Looking at the stats and then saying the health system won't cope in Autumn. The number of critical sick is dropping.

    I think some of it is because Sweden went a different approach to what WHO recommend but that might be me.

     Also remember that the UK has a 14 day quarantine in place for arrivals from most countries.
    The exceptions being some of the European countries on that list.

    Sweden does look very odd compared to the others on that list, though.
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #683 on: June 26, 2020, 22:59 »
    I can't find much in languages I understand - we are talking about this, right?

    https://www.euro.who.int/en/media-centre/sections/statements/2020/statement-digital-health-is-about-empowering-people

    "30 countries/territories have seen increases in new cumulative cases over the past two weeks. In 11 of these countries/territories (1), accelerated transmission has led to very significant resurgence that if left unchecked will push health systems to the brink once again in Europe. [...]

    (1) Armenia, Sweden, Republic of Moldova, North Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine, Kosovo"


    It's true that Sweden is doing more tests since recently - but those numbers are not extraordanary. More or less comparable to Germany (per capita), for example - but the numbers of positives they find are almost 20 times as high.

    I agree that traveling to Sweden alone is unlikely to "push health systems to the brink", but obviously the infection risk is among the highest in Europe, and therefor I can understand that it's not recommended.

    And does the UK really have a quarantine exception for one of those countries?
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #684 on: June 27, 2020, 07:38 »
    I can't find much in languages I understand - we are talking about this, right?

    https://www.euro.who.int/en/media-centre/sections/statements/2020/statement-digital-health-is-about-empowering-people

    "30 countries/territories have seen increases in new cumulative cases over the past two weeks. In 11 of these countries/territories (1), accelerated transmission has led to very significant resurgence that if left unchecked will push health systems to the brink once again in Europe. [...]

    (1) Armenia, Sweden, Republic of Moldova, North Macedonia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine, Kosovo"


    It's true that Sweden is doing more tests since recently - but those numbers are not extraordanary. More or less comparable to Germany (per capita), for example - but the numbers of positives they find are almost 20 times as high.

    I agree that traveling to Sweden alone is unlikely to "push health systems to the brink", but obviously the infection risk is among the highest in Europe, and therefor I can understand that it's not recommended.

    And does the UK really have a quarantine exception for one of those countries?

    That's the same piece I read.
    Do we? I have no idea.
    This heads up the BBC news today:

    Blanket restrictions on non-essential overseas travel will be relaxed in the UK from 6 July, ministers have said.

    Holidaymakers are expected to be allowed to travel to certain European countries without having to spend 14 days in quarantine when they return.

    They are thought to include Spain, France, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Finland, Belgium, Turkey, Germany and Norway - but not Portugal or Sweden.

    The full list of travel corridors with the UK will be published next week.
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #685 on: June 27, 2020, 07:52 »
    ahh, okay, I misunderstood your post up there. I thought you were refering to that 11 nation WHO list.

    Also remember that the UK has a 14 day quarantine in place for arrivals from most countries.
    The exceptions being some of the European countries on that list.

    and it would be a bit surprising if they put the whole EU in quarantine, but allow visitors from Kyrgyzstan or so, to say so ;)
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #686 on: June 27, 2020, 13:09 »
    I don't see unusually spikes in the data. Weeky infections are setting new highs for the 4th week in a row now.

    As you mentioned for the US above, it could be down to more younger people getting infected of course, which is less of a problem for the health system - but for a state going by a different approach to fight the virus, there's no chance to not issue a travel warning for Sweden, from my point of view. Going there results in a massively increased risk of getting infected (unless you are coming from the US or Brazil or so)
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #687 on: June 28, 2020, 08:10 »
    Look at the case data for Sweden and look at the last three weeks. You'll see that there are groups of 6 or 7 bars that follow a pattern of:
    - low line;
    - 4-5 really high bars - with the highest in the middle of the group;
    - low line

    Now, compare that profile to the overall graphs for Canada or Germany - or even Aussie, which is apparently having the (expected) Southern Hemisphere winter "second wave".
    Those curves are all much smoother and more organic.

    in Germany we do have similar spikes...


    Source SWE: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa
    Source GER: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/478220a4c454480e823b17327b2bf1d4

    ...and they exist simply for the reason that many people analysing tests and/or forwarding the results don't work on the weekend. Obviously people don't get sick on Wednesday only, that's why I went for the weekly figures.

    Those are 20 times as high as in Germany, 8 times as high as in the UK, with more or less similar test numbers.


    https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/COVID-19.html

    What else do you need for a "massively increased risk of getting infected"? And I don't see how whether this feels no worse than a flu or not, is of any importance for this discussion.

    If this is just a personal agenda of yours to try to ridicule everything I'm saying, we can just leave this at this point by the way. Or are you still interested in a normal discussion? Then phrase your points accordingly please, and stop being such an asshole.
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    Re: Coronavirus COVID-19 P/B Wuhan, China
    « Reply #688 on: June 28, 2020, 15:46 »
    Just because we seem to be further apart on the spectrum of possible positions on covid than some of the others on this thread seem to be doesn't mean that this isn't a "normal discussion" - and your reaction to my posts likely has as much to do with your feelings on covid and your response to someone disagreeing with you as a result as it does to my delivery.

    All I'm trying to do is have a debate - I enjoy testing arguments and having my own arguments tested.
    From my experience, not only can the process be intellectually stimulating, it can also help inform and educate all parties involved - simply by the presentation and exchange of differing ideas and statements of position.

    So, if someone debating with you over your position is not something that you want, just say - and I'll stop responding to anything that you post.

    you are free to reply of course, I just find your way to do so (discrediting other opinions, because they differ from yours) sometimes very disrespectful, and not appropriate.

    Of course we differ on some views, but I don't even think it should have any influence on this discussion. Whether a travel ban for Sweden is warrented or not, from my point of view is almost completely unrelated on any opinion about the virus itself, or also the Swedish way to deal with it (which we probably don't even differ on too much).
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