collapse


Leadbelly

  • Grand Tour Winner
  • Country: gb
  • Posts: 9037
  • Liked: 8683
  • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
Stage 10 Ile d'Oléron > Ile de Ré (168.5km)
« on: August 18, 2020, 19:35 »
Tour de France Stage 10 Ile d'Oléron > Ile de Ré (168.5km)



The Tour this year is very much a Southern and Eastern affair with just a couple of jaunts outside that area. This stage is one of those jaunts as we're over on the Bay of Biscay. In the environs of La Rochelle to be precise. I seem to remember it was the setting for much of the action in my school French text book.

"J'aimerais aller à la discothèque."

Here's a first. The stage starts on an island and finishes on a different one.

I was trying to think of other island finishes in GTs. There was a TT that finished on Mont Saint Michel (was that the one where Martin was shaking his head at Froome?) Wasn't there one early in the Giro last year?

"C'est un cauchemar"



By the coast all day, so the big hope is that wind will play a factor.

"Prenez le deuxieme rue a gauche"



About as much climbing as you would get in a stereotypical stage in Middle East. The views should be a bit better here though.

Leadbelly's Leading Lights a bit nearer the time. We'll probably have had three sprints by this point and that should give us some data to work on.

"A bientot mes amis"
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 9037
    • Liked: 8683
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Stage 10 Ile d'Oléron > Ile de Ré (168.5km)
    « Reply #1 on: September 07, 2020, 18:52 »
    https://twitter.com/YallaIsraelSUN/status/1303003847925936129

    I'll try and find a weather/wind forecast for tomorrow.
  • ReplyReply

  • Mellow Velo

    • Classics Winner
    • Country: wales
    • Posts: 2833
    • Liked: 3471
    • Awards: 2015 CQ Vuelta Game winnerVelogames Classics Champion 20142013 CQ Ranking Giro Game
    Re: Stage 10 Ile d'Oléron > Ile de Ré (168.5km)
    « Reply #2 on: September 07, 2020, 18:58 »

    I'll try and find a weather/wind forecast for tomorrow.

    It's completely different to today, light winds off the land. 15kph or there abouts.
  • ReplyReply
  • "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.

    Leadbelly

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 9037
    • Liked: 8683
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Stage 10 Ile d'Oléron > Ile de Ré (168.5km)
    « Reply #3 on: September 07, 2020, 19:15 »
    It's completely different to today, light winds off the land. 15kph or there abouts.

    Yeah nothing much to get excited about. Early in the stage it looks to be coming off the land (NE), but checking La Rochelle and Ile de Re later in the day, they seem to have it coming down along the coast (NW) which potentially could cause something when they head SW and cross the bridge in the finale, but yeah it's not very strong and the road is bound to be wide.
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 9037
    • Liked: 8683
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Stage 10 Ile d'Oléron > Ile de Ré (168.5km)
    « Reply #4 on: September 07, 2020, 19:41 »
    Leadbelly's Leading Lights

    Full blown sprint then we think?

     :onfire1 :onfire1 :onfire1

    Ewan and Bennett

    No surprises here. They're very much not having it all their own way, but class usually tells.

     :onfire1 :onfire1

    WVA and Bol

    Will Wout be allowed to sprint? If it's a full field sprint I think Jumbo will tell him to not risk it as they have bigger fish to fry and he already has two stages, but if the wind does strange things and it splits up somewhat, then he would move up a ranking.

     :onfire1

    Assuming it's not a reduced sprint it's difficult to see anyone else winning. Kristoff? Stage too short and weather fine. Sagan? 3rd or 4th is his limit these days. Pedersen? Actually he could spring a surprise. Viviani? Well, he doesn't seem at the races.

    Could anyone have a cauchemar in the wind light breeze? Landa again? :-x

  • ReplyReply

  • t-72

    • Road Captain
    • Country: no
    • Posts: 1985
    • Liked: 3587
    Re: Stage 10 Ile d'Oléron > Ile de Ré (168.5km)
    « Reply #5 on: September 07, 2020, 19:52 »
    .....

    I was trying to think of other island finishes in GTs. There was a TT that finished on Mont Saint Michel (was that the one where Martin was shaking his head at Froome?) Wasn't there one early in the Giro last year?


    Call your map nerd!  :snooty  (Cue Indiana Jones music  :P )

    For Le Tour de France, 2013 Grand Depart featured two stages with start and finish on an island.

    More seriously,  the legendary stage 2, 2015 - this was the most decisive island finish stage of modern times:



    in which #sky Chris Froome distanced #movistar Nairo Quintana by 01 min 28 seconds. Quintana would later match Froome in the mountains on this tour, as Froome faded in the third week. However, Quintana could never claw back more than just a little of the time loss from the crosswind stage in the Rhijn/Maas delta country. Chris Froome won the tour by 01 min 14 secs.

    The Giro has had quite a few Island stages including some of the big climbs.  (OK, just to rub it in - you forgot about La Corse, Sicilia and Sardinia :P).

    Spain has more cycling-famous islands than the other two countries yet I cannot remember any Vuelta stages on Mallorca or in the Islas Canarias?  :slow
    I do remember them starting first stage off various floating devices, but navy ships don't count as islands unless they are very big and stuck on some rock where in theory it doesn't belong...
  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • World Champion
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 12343
    • Liked: 13823
    • Awards: 2019 Tour prediction champMember of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Member of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: Stage 10 Ile d'Oléron > Ile de Ré (168.5km)
    « Reply #6 on: September 07, 2020, 20:05 »
    Assuming it's not a reduced sprint it's difficult to see anyone else winning. Kristoff? Stage too short and weather fine. Sagan? 3rd or 4th is his limit these days. Pedersen? Actually he could spring a surprise. Viviani? Well, he doesn't seem at the races.

    Coquard did a recon of basically the whole stage 4 weeks ago, so he should be fairly well prepared

    https://www.strava.com/activities/3895748458

    But well, yeah, it probably won't shoot him up from ~6th or 7th quickest sprinter to 1st.

    #ntt Edvald Boasson Hagen looked surprisingly quick in the stage on Friday though. So I guess they will go for Walscheid now ;)

    And talking about Walscheid:



    :cool
  • ReplyReply
  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    t-72

    • Road Captain
    • Country: no
    • Posts: 1985
    • Liked: 3587
    Re: Stage 10 Ile d'Oléron > Ile de Ré (168.5km)
    « Reply #7 on: September 07, 2020, 20:08 »
    checking La Rochelle and Ile de Re later in the day, they seem to have it coming down along the coast (NW) which potentially could cause something when they head SW and cross the bridge in the finale.

    The route is exposed to NW winds all the way from L'Homeau to Rivedoux plage, and there's a slight chance of having locally stronger winds across there on just that wind direction, so it might actually provide some decent sailing conditions. The NW wind exposed section is a little bit shorter than 10 km, with a few turns and twists at the start - but it is definetly long enough to split the peloton again given conditions and the tactical will to do the work.

    That tactical will is questionable because they will get the same wind on the nose for another 10 km on the island itself later. I favor bunch sprint finale, but 30% chance of small group finish and some GC tragedié.
  • ReplyReply

  • t-72

    • Road Captain
    • Country: no
    • Posts: 1985
    • Liked: 3587
    Re: Stage 10 Ile d'Oléron > Ile de Ré (168.5km)
    « Reply #8 on: September 07, 2020, 20:54 »
    Coquard did a recon of basically the whole stage 4 weeks ago, so he should be fairly well prepared
    .....

    Just one thought about the French teams. #total Total Direct Energie is the home team in this area, and they are probably motivated to try something, but I seriously question if they are able to do more than get in the breakaway and show their hair?

    They can probably do more than that. They have a decent leadout for Niccolo Bonifazio featuring Geoffery Soupe, who arguably was at his best when racing with the boxer, but still not a pushover in the final.  Bonifazio has had one of his best seasons ever, winning at world tour level in the Paris-Nice, and also with decent stage results from the Occitanie after the corona timeout. It is just that so far this Tour,  I barely noted his presence.

    Could be they have been saving themselves a little extra for the home stage tomorrow?

    I urge Leadbelly to put him on the outsider's list.
  • ReplyReply

  • AG

    • Monument Winner
    • *
    • Country: au
    • Posts: 6693
    • Liked: 4144
    • Awards: Winner, 2013 National Championships prediction gameFan of the Year 2013
    Re: Stage 10 Ile d'Oléron > Ile de Ré (168.5km)
    « Reply #9 on: September 08, 2020, 09:57 »
    I am happy we are discussing wind and flat racing ... the other possibility we could have been discussing at this point was the pesky virus - so I am happy to have racing :D
  • ReplyReply

  • Leadbelly

    • Grand Tour Winner
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 9037
    • Liked: 8683
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: Stage 10 Ile d'Oléron > Ile de Ré (168.5km)
    « Reply #10 on: September 08, 2020, 20:15 »
    Since I wasn't about to watch it, this stage round-up is brought to you by the power of quotes.

    Some early non-racing news

    Quote from: MV
    So Prudhomme tests positive.....And puts the French PM into isolation  :lol

    Enough of that, let's back to cycling and some big Swiss cheeses.

    Quote from: Fus
    Meanwhile, on the road, *ch duo of Schär and Küng have taken off

    Uncle Search thought they were playing with the peloton and since the breaks chances today were slim, why not?

    Some action did happen ~90km to go.

    Quote from: MV
    Big crash and a few riders are hurt
    Quote from: Francois
    echelons. woohooo

    Pinot and a few others were caught up in it (Bewley was a DNF), but as Fus pointed out it wasn't worth the effort with such a long way to go.

    Just some general chit-chat for a while now. I'm guessing nothing much was happening on the road until.......

    Quote from: Francois
    lol. mankini alert



    .....and more crashes followed.

    Quote from: AG
    Chute....Martin and pogacar........Formolo hurt

    I'm just reading on Twitter now that Formolo has broken his collarbone and is out of the Tour. A blow to Pogacar's GC chances. The medical bulletin has at least 12 riders getting X-rayed post-stage, so he may be joined by others.

    Getting towards the finale and the loooong bridge.

    Quote from: MV
    Wind direction not ideal

    but there were still a few dozers....

    Quote from: search
    Superman caught out
    Quote from: Fus
    Are echelons Superman's kryptonite? :D

    Everyone that mattered though got back into the peloton. Cue the sprint.

    https://twitter.com/wcsbike/status/1303353284640505857

    Quote from: search
    1st win for Bennett. About time

    He's the second Irish rider to win stages in all three GTs.

    Quote from: MV
    #green for Bennett

    Sagan isn't too far behind. Maybe Bora will repeat their efforts of a few days back on some of the upcoming stages to try and dislodge the Irishman.

  • ReplyReply

  • AG

    • Monument Winner
    • *
    • Country: au
    • Posts: 6693
    • Liked: 4144
    • Awards: Winner, 2013 National Championships prediction gameFan of the Year 2013
    Re: Stage 10 Ile d'Oléron > Ile de Ré (168.5km)
    « Reply #11 on: September 09, 2020, 10:09 »
    pretty good summary really.  A stage that had some promise but the winds were not blowing in the right way for any real action
  • ReplyReply

  •  

    Recent Posts

    Re: Stage 1 Monreale › Palermo TT (15km) by Leadbelly
    [September 25, 2020, 20:57]


    Re: Giro 2020 General Discussion by Leadbelly
    [September 25, 2020, 19:42]


    Re: Mens' transfers and Rumors 2020-21 by search
    [September 25, 2020, 17:57]


    Re: Mens' transfers and Rumors 2020-21 by Mellow Velo
    [September 25, 2020, 13:39]


    Re: Imola 2020 World Road Cycling Championships by LukasCPH
    [September 25, 2020, 10:42]


    Re: Imola 2020 World Road Cycling Championships by AG
    [September 25, 2020, 03:05]



    Top
    Back to top