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Re: Giro 2020 - Big Preview
« on: September 29, 2020, 14:23 »
#ciclamino Classifica a punti

The points classification of the Giro was introducesin 1958, called Trofeo A. Carli, but only after a eight year break following the first endeavour, it found its permanent place in the Giro d'Italia on from 1966.

That year there was no associated jersey, while for the two subsequent editions a red jersey was awarded to the leader of the classification. From 1969 to 2009, the jersey was mauve, but often referred to as cyclamen. After another brief period of awarding a red sprints jersey, it turned cyclamen again for the 100th edition of the Giro in 2017, and so it will be again this time.

The points scheme remains the same as in recent years. Notwithstanding the fact, that he have seen battles between riders as different as they could be, with both sprinters and pure climbers fighting for the jersey in the past when every stage counted the same, the organizers decided to stick to the approach of the points system they introduced a couple of years ago. This means stages are separated in four different categories instead, with different amounts of points being awarded.

Points awarded at the finish (by stage category)

cat. 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
a) & b)         50      35      25      18      14      12      10      8      7      6
c)         25      18      12      8      6      5      4      3      2      1
d) & e)         15      12      9      7      6      5      4      3      2      1

+ minor points for place 11-15 in category a) and b)

Points awarded at the intermediate sprint (by stage category)

cat. 1st  2nd 3rd  4th 5th  6th 7th 8th
a); b); c) & d)      12      8      6      5      4      3      2      1

...with the stages being categorized in the following way:
  • categoria a) & b): 4a - 6a - 7a - 11a - 13a - 19a
  • categoria c): 2a - 5a - 8a - 10a - 12a
  • categoria d) & e): 1a - 3a - 9a - 14a - 15a - 16a - 17a - 18a - 20a - 21a
Since the rule change in 2015 no non-sprinter has ever come in touch of winning the jersey again, but as only three of the six 50 point sprint-stages this year are actually flat, this could very well change.

Furthermore, the final week of the race is absolutely brutal, so although there's a fairly good opportunity for a big bunch sprint on day #19, question is, if any pure sprinter will be still around at that point.

Favorites for the Maglia Ciclamino:

On paper the fastest sprinters in the race are Caleb Ewan, Fernando Gaviria and Arnaud Démare, but whether they can score enough points on the flat stages and be able to survive the mountains, is a different question.

Therefor, a good-climbing sprinter with a great uphill kick, like Michael Matthews or Peter Sagan, looks like the most likely candidate to win the jersey. But as the hilly full-point sprint stages also offer opportunities for (late) attacks, we could also see some surprises.

Puncheur type of sprinters like Davide Ballerini or Enrico Battaglin should have less problems making it over the mountains, and thereby could become contenders to win the jersey although they are probably unlikely to finish in the Top 3 in the flat sprints early on.

Outsiders could be riders like Diego Ulissi and Simon Yates, who are very capable to finish high up the order on almost all kind of stages.

#blue Classifica scalatori

Not only the jersey for the winner of the points classification has changed it's color in recent years, also the one for the King of the Mountains has - it turned from green to blue in 2012.

Often over the past years it was won by riders not taking part in the fight for pink, like Mikel Landa in 2017, or also Mikel Nieve, Giovanni Visconti or Julián Arredondo - before Chris Froome in 2018 became the first rider since Marco Pantani to win both the general classification as well as the mountain jersey in the same Giro. Last year an escapee had the upper hand again, though, when in impressive manner, Giulio Ciccone took the jersey on day one and defended it till the very end.

While thereby Ciccone scored more than double the amount of Masnada in 2nd, actually, more often than not, it has been a very open fight for the jersey between the opportunists and gc contenders over the past years. One example for that is the 2015 edition, when there was a battle between Visconti, Mikel Landa, Steven Kruijswijk and Beñat Intxausti basically until the final climb of the race, with each of them at times looking like the one to wear blue in Milano in the end.

Back in 2014 the scores of the hardest climb categories were exponentially increased to give them proportionally higher value - and this is still the case now, with points allocated in the following way:

CIMA COPPI GPM 1a Cat. GPM 2a Cat. GPM 3a Cat. GPM 4a Cat.
      50      40      18      9      3
      30      18      8      4      2
      20      12      6      2      1
      14      9      4      1      
      10      6      2            
      6      4      1            
      4      2                  
      2      1                  

(this year's Cima Coppi is the Passo dello Stelvio on stage 18)

So the allocation of points is very top-heavy. 1st category climbs are of much more importance than the smaller ones, and the big differences between the top finishers gives a massive advantage to those who manage to come 1st on the big climbs - now even more so, as the score for coming 1st was increased from 45 to 50 on the Cima Coppi, 35 to 40 on 1st category climbs, 15 to 18 on 2nd category climbs and 7 to 9 on 3rd category climbs last year, while all other numbers remaines the same.

But in the end, the winner of the jersey it not only determined by the number of points awarded on the climbs, but also by the fact where those climbs are located during the stages:

Stage Pt / Underway Pt / Finish
1      Monreale - Palermo ITT      3      
2      Alcamo - Agrigento      3      3
3      Enna - Etna            40
4      Catania - Villafranca Tirrena      9      
5      Mileto - Camigliatello Silano      9+9+40      
6      Castrovillari - Matera      9      
7      Matera - Brindisi            
8      Giovinazzo - Vieste      18+3      
9      San Salvo - Roccaraso      40+18+18      40
10      Lanciano - Tortoreto      3+3+9+3      
11      Porto Sant’Elpidio - Rimini      3      
12      Cesenatico - Cesenatico      3+9+9+9+3      
13      Cervia - Monselice      3+3      
14      Conegliano - Valdobbiadene ITT      3      
15      Base Area Rivolto - Piancavallo      18+18+18      40
16      Udine - San Daniele del Friuli      18+9+9+9+9+9      
17      Bassano del Grappa - Madonna di Campiglio      40+40+9      40
18      Pinzolo - Laghi di Cancano      18+40+50      40
19      Morbegno - Asti            
20      Alba - Sestriere      40+40+18      40
21      Cernusco sul Naviglio - Milano ITT            
TOTAL            654      243

So contary to 2018 for example, where many point heavy mountain-top finishes favored the GC guys, the organizers have gone back to the approach of having the total maximum number of points available during the stages clearly exceeding those at the stage finishes.

On paper this should suit the eager escapees, but with the two early point-heavy climbs at (or close to the) finish in week 1, a GC contender looks likely to take the jersey early on, meaning he'll probably be more eager to defend it.

Consequently, this points scheme should offer opportunities for both breakaway riders as well as GC contenders to win the jersey.

Favorites for the Maglia Azzuro:

As usual, it's difficult to name clear favorites to win the Maglia Azzura as it always is also determined by the outcome of the general classification, with riders casting an eye on the jersey only after losing time early on. Riders like Fuglsang or Majka could take it early though and try to defend it, until gifted cimbers not having an eye on GC take over, like maybe Ilnur Zakarin, Alexander Cepeda or last year's winner Giulio Ciccone.

#white Classifica giovani

The white jersey for the best young rider was first introduced in 1976 and is awarded to the best rider not born before January 1st 1994. In 2019, for the second year in a row, it was won by Miguel Angel Lopez, becoming the fifth Colombian winner in eight years. Between 2012 and 2014 it were Rigoberto Uran, Carlos Betancur and Nairo Quintana who were victorious, before Fabio Aru brought it back to Italy in 2015 and Bob Jungels took over for Luxembourg in 2016 and 2017. The other winners since it's reintroduction in 2007 were Andy Schleck, Riccardo Riccò, Kevin Seeldraeyers, Richie Porte and Roman Kreuziger.

Favorites for the Maglia Bianca:

After many top GC riders competing for the white jersey over the past years, the list of potential winners born after Januar 1st 1995 is surprisingly short this time. Alexander Vlasov looks like the standout contender, while others will probably only have a chance if he runs into some kind of problems, or needs to spend too much energy helping his team mate Jakob Fuglsang.

Edit: ...but only as I missed Sam Oomen, who already finished 9th in the 2018 Giro ;).

All detailed rules for the various classifications can be found in the ~pdf Giro d'Italia Regulations
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  • « Last Edit: September 29, 2020, 19:44 by LukasCPH »
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