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Leadbelly

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Stage 1 Irún › Arrate (172.5km)
« on: October 18, 2020, 18:07 »
Vuelta a Espana Stage 1 Irun  ›  Arrate (173km)



Willkommen! And Ongi Etorria! Welcome!
Fremder, arrotza, stranger
Glücklich zu sehen
Pozik ikusi zaitut
Happy to see you
Bleibe, egon, stay

It was meant to be the 14th of August. It was meant to be Utrecht, Netherlands. It was meant to....hold on, I've already used this line.





A lot of things have changed this year, but we're back on very familiar territory for the start of the Vuelta. The Arrate finish is well known to all who have watched Pais Vasco. Recent winners include Buchmann, Mas, Valverde, Rosa and Purito. The Vuelta itself last visited in 2012 when Valverde also won.

Those stages have usually varied the run into the final climb and for this particular visit they have added in the similarly nasty Elgeta which could provide a launching pad for attacks or the descent could or we could get none at all before the final climb.

I've included the Arrate profile above, but I'm sure you'll remember that the finish isn't at the top. It continues along on fast rolling terrain before a short drop down to to the line. Let's hope for no crashes this time.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Stage 1 Irún › Arrate (172.5km)
    « Reply #1 on: October 18, 2020, 18:33 »


     :D

    So who to watch out for?

    Slovenians obviously. Well actually just the one this time - Roglic. The leadership between himself and Dumoulin will be decided on the road, but early on in the race and especially on this type of finish, Primoz should be the man.

    Bagioli. He's probably been watching the Giro and thinking "If Joao can do this, why not me?". He's not as good a climber, but has a punchy finish and might fancy his chances here.

    The local locals. No Fundacion for the race this year, but that doesn't mean they don't have riders to cheer on. Ion is probably their best bet, but a win looks unlikely.

    Valverde. His stage placements at the Tour tell a story. However that wasn't too different to last year and he didn't do too badly at the Vuelta afterwards. Write him off at your peril!

    My top 5? Roglic, Valverde, Woods, Martin and Carapaz.
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: Stage 1 Irún › Arrate (172.5km)
    « Reply #2 on: October 19, 2020, 21:12 »
     The wind forecast looks very interesting.

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  • "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.

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    Re: Stage 1 Irún › Arrate (172.5km)
    « Reply #3 on: October 19, 2020, 21:44 »
    yeah, I was about to say... looks like a very windy affair



    the headwind in the middle part may kill most of the action though
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  • "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    t-72

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    Re: Stage 1 Irún › Arrate (172.5km)
    « Reply #4 on: October 19, 2020, 22:14 »
    That´s not going to be a smooth windy ride. 11 m/s offshore wind in hilly terrain and coming across the mountains. is more likely hammering gusts even stronger than that at some places in the in the inland valleys and on the Arrate crest. The kind of wind that makes crashes, not echelons.
    Either way, I don´t see a crosswinds specialist going big on the Arrate. It is a stage for climbers, isn´t it?
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  • « Last Edit: October 19, 2020, 23:25 by t-72, Reason: typo: stronger »

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    Re: Stage 1 Irún › Arrate (172.5km)
    « Reply #5 on: October 19, 2020, 22:25 »
    probably, yes. Teams like #deceuninck Deceuninck, #bora Bora or #trek Trek have some big guys for windy conditions, but lack first class climbers for the second part of the stage
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: Stage 1 Irún › Arrate (172.5km)
    « Reply #6 on: October 20, 2020, 18:10 »
    https://twitter.com/lavuelta/status/1318583700960006145

    The obvious favourite for the stage still had enough in his legs for the win today. We'll see how he copes the further we get into the race.

    A break of five with with strong riders in it (Cavagna, Wellens and Sutty) were kept on a short leash all day. They were brought back not far the final two climbs. The pace wasn't that high on the penultimate climb, but it was still too much for Froome. We still could see a lot of him over the next few weeks, but it won't be at the front.

    Ineos were in charge at the bottom of the Arrate slopes. However they didn't last that long and once Sosa pulled over, that was the cue for Kuss to put in an attack and that's when things really split up.

    The initial six in front were Kuss, Carapaz, Mas, Martin, Roglic and Carthy. Chaves, Grossschartner and Bennett (temporarily in the latter's case) managed to get back on after not being able to follow the first accelerations.

    There were some attempted attacks, but eventually Kuss set a steady pace for the rest of the climb. We were waiting for the inevitable Roglic attack and it finally did come. Carapaz was the one behind who put in all the work to keep the gap as small as possible.



    Big losers?

    #ag2r with 2 DNFs

    Vlasov who tbf didn't have ideal preparation.

    #ef Crash for Martinez early in the stage and then Woods who had a run-in with a bollard. Carthy saving the day.

    #groupama Gaudu did okay, but Pinot surely should be on a beach with his feet up.
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    Re: Stage 1 Irún › Arrate (172.5km)
    « Reply #7 on: October 20, 2020, 18:30 »
    #groupama Gaudu did okay, but Pinot surely should be on a beach with his feet up.

    he looked okay at the beginning, but also only finished 35th, even behind #total Julien Simon. He said something about "best shape of his life" yesterday, so I guess it's not quite what he or the team was hoping for.
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  • Servais Knavendish

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    Re: Stage 1 Irún › Arrate (172.5km)
    « Reply #8 on: October 20, 2020, 22:14 »
    Wow -  not a good day at all for the new marquee face of  #israel; troubled times indeed for some people's favourite  *ke
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