[Leadbelly]

It's gonna be unusual heading into these latter events with some riders to cheer on for once - Alaphilippe, Matthews, GVA, Vansevenant, Pidcock and maybe Jorgenson. Making up 650 points though is probably asking too much.

[Armchair Cyclist]

Race 18  Brabantse Pijl

For the first time since Milan-San Remo, the race winner appears in some of our teams.

Race Pos'n		Pts	Teams
1	PIDCOCK Thomas	130	8
3	TRENTIN Matteo	66	5
7	TEUNS Dylan	40	2
12	VAN AVERMAET Greg	18	13
14	MADOUAS Valentin	14	1
18	LAPORTE Christophe	8	8

		This race	Main scorers	Green points
1	Bminchow	214	Pidcock/Trentin/Van Avermaet	80
2	Leadbelly	148	Pidcock/Van Avermaet	36.66
2	JustSomeGuy	148	"	36.66
2	Del1962	148	"	36.66
5	Ray10	138	Pidcock/Laporte	10
5	Otoxiep87	138	"	10
5	Googolplex	138	"	10
8	Josedin	130	Pidcock	3
9	Kazistuta	120	Trentin/Teuns/Madouas	2
10	AmisVelo	84		0.5
10	SemirS	84		0.5
12	Triley36	66
13	Blues_in_the_Bottle	40
14	Madrazo	26
14	DJSprtsch	26
14	Armchair	26
14	Search	26
14	Comodoro	26
19	RoteLaterne	18
19	Scrool07	18
21	MellowVelo	0
21	ChrisDK	0
	CollectiveWisdom	156

Green points
Any manager could score, in theory, another 240 points, if they topscore in the three remaining events, which would mean that anyone down to Triley in 15th could still win.

		Green points	change in rank
1	Madrazo	352.5	0
2	ChrisDK	330.03	0
3	Josedin	301.53	0
4	RoteLaterne	250.21	0
5	DJSprtsch	233.71	0
6	Ray10	232.6	0
7	Blues_in_the_Bottle	206.82	0
8	AmisVelo	206.32	0
9	Kazistuta	202.82	0
10	Bminchow	176.5	8

Standings

The leader failed to score, and the team in 3rd outscored that in second: it is bunching up at the top.

Rank	Team	Points	Change in rank
1	Madrazo	2256	0
2	AmisVelo	2170	0
3	Josedin	2104	0
4	RoteLaterne	1908	0
5	MellowVelo	1884	0
6	Blues_in_the_Bottle	1844	0
7	Ray10	1834	1
8	Bminchow	1809	3
9	DJSprtsch	1782	-2
10	Leadbelly	1737	2
11	SemirS	1681	-1
12	JustSomeGuy	1661	2
13	ChrisDK	1638	-4
14	Kazistuta	1552	2
15	Armchair	1545	-2
16	Search	1500	-1
17	Otoxiep87	1455	0
18	Del1962	1452	2
19	Triley36	1372	-1
20	Comodoro	1332	-2
21	Googolplex	1205	1
22	Scrool07	1111	-1
	CollectiveWisdom	2134

CN:  1602
VR: 1784

The leader seems to be running out of steam, and two are chasing him down relentlessly.  As we head into the final hills, it seems that these three will comprise the podium, but in what order?  Or will someone emerge, like Cosnefroy, to try to chase them down?  And if so, will it turn out not to be Cosnefroy-esque, but more like AGR 2019?  The race situation in Brabantse Pijl and our game seem to be echoes of each other.  I had overlooked Pidcock in my summary of who might hold the key in my post-Ronde roundup: neither I nor Wout Van Aert should have underestimated him.

Spreadsheet

[Armchair Cyclist]

Sorry it's been delayed: RL interfering

Race 19  Amstel Gold Race

I thought for a while we might have to share the points from 1st and 2nd...

Race Pos'n		Pts	Teams
2	PIDCOCK Thomas	132	8
4	MATTHEWS Michael	96	1
6	ALAPHILIPPE Julian	76	4
9	MOHORIC Matej	52	1
12	TRENTIN Matteo	35	5
13	VALGREN HUNDAHL (ANDERSEN) Michael	30	2
15	BENOOT Tiesj	24	1
20	HERMANS Quinten	16	2
26	VAN AVERMAET Greg	10	13
27	MADOUAS Valentin	9	1
29	WELLENS Tim	7	6

and 15 5-pointers.

		This race	Main scorers	Green points
1	Leadbelly	319	Pidcock/Matthews/Alaphilippe	80
2	Otoxiep87	237	Pidcock/Alaphilippe/Benoot	50
3	Googolplex	213	Pidcock/Alaphilippe	35
4	Bminchow	189	Pidcock/Trentin/Van Avermaet	25
5	JustSomeGuy	170	Pidcock/Hermans/Van Avermaet	15
6	Del1962	157	Pidcock/Trentin/Van Avermaet	10
7	Josedin	142		5
8	Ray10	132		3
9	Triley36	87		2
10	Armchair	86		1
11	SemirS	57
12	Kazistuta	54
13	AmisVelo	50
13	Blues_in_the_Bottle	50
15	ChrisDK	45
16	MellowVelo	33
17	Search	27
18	Scrool07	22
19	Comodoro	20
20	Madrazo	15
20	RoteLaterne	15
20	DJSprtsch	15
	CollectiveWisdom	151

Green standings

		Green points	change in rank
1	Madrazo	352.5	0
2	ChrisDK	330.03	0
3	Josedin	306.53	0
4	RoteLaterne	250.21	0
5	Ray10	235.6	1
6	DJSprtsch	233.71	-1
7	Blues_in_the_Bottle	206.82	0
8	AmisVelo	206.32	0
9	Kazistuta	202.82	0
10	Bminchow	201.5	0
11	Leadbelly	186.48	7
12	SemirS	170	-1
13	Del1962	159.87	-1
14	JustSomeGuy	158.66	-1
15	MellowVelo	136.82	-1
16	Otoxiep87	126.5	4
16	Triley36	126.5	-1
18	Armchair	109	-1
19	Search	108.5	-3
20	Comodoro	102.21	-1
21	Googolplex	55.5	0
22	Scrool07	13.21	0

Standings
And the top three become even more closely bunched, with a change to their order, while Leadbelly makes that late charge towards the podium that I wondered about in the last update.

Rank	Team	Points	Change in rank
1	Madrazo	2271	0
2	Josedin	2246	1
3	AmisVelo	2220	-1
4	Leadbelly	2056	6
5	Bminchow	1998	3
6	Ray10	1966	1
7	RoteLaterne	1923	-3
8	MellowVelo	1917	-3
9	Blues_in_the_Bottle	1894	-3
10	JustSomeGuy	1831	2
11	DJSprtsch	1797	-2
12	SemirS	1738	-1
13	Otoxiep87	1692	4
14	ChrisDK	1683	-1
15	Armchair	1631	0
16	Del1962	1609	2
17	Kazistuta	1606	-3
18	Search	1527	-2
19	Triley36	1459	0
20	Googolplex	1418	1
21	Comodoro	1352	-1
22	Scrool07	1133	0
	CollectiveWisdom	2285

Two races left, it will all be done this weekend, but still much to be finalised.  The Mur de Huy will set things up tomorrow...

[Armchair Cyclist]

It's gonna be unusual heading into these latter events with some riders to cheer on for once - Alaphilippe, Matthews, GVA, Vansevenant, Pidcock and maybe Jorgenson. Making up 650 points though is probably asking too much.

I have the numbers from today in my spreadsheet, but won't be able to turn them into an update post until this evening.  But it seems 650 points is not too much to make up at all...

[Armchair Cyclist]

Race 20: Flèche Wallonne

The four managers that selected Alaphilippe will have felt that he has not really delivered on the amount spent on him.  Until today.

Race Pos'n		Pts	Teams
1	ALAPHILIPPE Julian	220	4
4	WOODS Michael	96	3
6	PIDCOCK Thomas	76	8
14	HERMANS Quinten	27	2
21	MATTHEWS Michael	15	1
22	POELS Wout	14	1
24	BRENNER Marco	12	1
27	VANSEVENANT Mauri	9	7

and 12 of the five pointers were also picked.

		This race	Main scorers	Green points
1	Googolplex	392	Alaphilippe/Woods/Pidcock	80
2	Leadbelly	330	Alaphilippe/Pidcock/Matthews/Vansevenant	50
3	Otoxiep87	296	Alaphilippe/Pidcock/Matthews/Vansevenant	35
4	Armchair	220	Alaphilippe	25
5	Comodoro	115	Woods/Poels	15
6	JustSomeGuy	108	Pidcock/Hermans	10
7	Search	106	Woods	5
8	Bminchow	93		3
9	Josedin	90		2
10	Ray10	81		0.5
10	Del1962	81		0.5
12	MellowVelo	46
13	ChrisDK	24
14	Blues_in_the_Bottle	19
14	Kazistuta	19
16	Triley36	15
17	AmisVelo	14
18	SemirS	10
19	Madrazo	5
19	RoteLaterne	5
19	DJSprtsch	5
19	Scrool07	5
	CollectiveWisdom	92

Green points
Only the top three could win now...

		Green points	change in rank
1	Madrazo	352.5	0
2	ChrisDK	330.03	0
3	Josedin	308.53	0
4	RoteLaterne	250.21	0
5	Leadbelly	236.48	6
6	Ray10	236.1	-1
7	DJSprtsch	233.71	-1
8	Blues_in_the_Bottle	206.82	-1
9	AmisVelo	206.32	-1
10	Bminchow	204.5	0

Standings
Not only chasing down the three who had been out front, but going straight past them without even sitting in their wheels:

1	Leadbelly	2386	3
2	Josedin	2336	0
3	Madrazo	2276	-2
4	AmisVelo	2234	-1
5	Bminchow	2091	0
6	Ray10	2047	0
7	Otoxiep87	1988	6
8	MellowVelo	1963	0
9	JustSomeGuy	1939	1
10	RoteLaterne	1928	-3
11	Blues_in_the_Bottle	1913	-2
12	Armchair	1851	3
13	Googolplex	1810	7
14	DJSprtsch	1802	-3
15	SemirS	1748	-3
16	ChrisDK	1707	-2
17	Del1962	1690	-1
18	Search	1633	0
19	Kazistuta	1625	-2
20	Triley36	1474	-1
21	Comodoro	1467	0
22	Scrool07	1138	0
	CollectiveWisdom	2377

Liege-Bastogne-Liege on Sunday is the 21st and final race of the series, and that neatly parallels the 21 stages of a GT for our game.  From the startlists, I don't think it is more likely to change the leadership than the final stage of most GTs, but this is cycling, and one can never be sure.

[Armchair Cyclist]

Race 21 and final: Liege-Bastogne-Liege

Race Pos'n		Pts	Teams
2	ALAPHILIPPE Julian	170	4
5	WOODS Michael	112	3
7	BENOOT Tiesj	90	1
10	MOHORIC Matej	62	1
19	MATTHEWS Michael	26	1
24	WELLENS Tim	16	6
25	NEILANDS Krists	14	1

and 13 five pointers.

		This race	Main scorers	Green points
1	Googolplex	282	Alaphilippe and Woods	80
2	Otoxiep87	260	Alaphilippe and Benoot	50
3	Leadbelly	216	Alaphilippe and Matthews	35
4	Armchair	175	Alaphilippe	25
5	Search	133	Woods and Wellens	15
6	Comodoro	127	Woods	10
7	Triley36	72	Mohoric	5
8	MellowVelo	31		3
9	ChrisDK	29		2
10	JustSomeGuy	26		0.33
10	SemirS	26		0.33
10	Scrool07	26		0.33
13	Bminchow	21
14	AmisVelo	15
14	Blues_in_the_Bottle	15
14	Del1962	15
14	Kazistuta	15
18	Madrazo	10
18	RoteLaterne	10
18	DJSprtsch	10
21	Josedin	5
21	Ray10	5
	CollectiveWisdom	20

Final Green Points standings

Maybe some consolation for Madrazo, who lead the main scoring until the end of the cobbles, but virtually disappeared from scoring in the Ardennes(ish) 4 race coda to the spring.

		Green points	change in rank
1	Madrazo	352.5	0
2	ChrisDK	332.03	0
3	Josedin	308.53	0
4	Leadbelly	271.48	1
5	RoteLaterne	250.21	-1
6	Ray10	236.1	0
7	DJSprtsch	233.71	0
8	Googolplex	215.5	9
9	Otoxiep87	211.5	5
10	Blues_in_the_Bottle	206.82	-2
11	AmisVelo	206.32	-2
12	Bminchow	204.5	-2
13	Kazistuta	202.82	-2
14	SemirS	170.33	-2
15	JustSomeGuy	168.99	-2
16	Del1962	160.37	-1
17	Armchair	159	1
18	MellowVelo	139.82	-2
19	Triley36	131.5	0
20	Search	128.5	1
21	Comodoro	127.21	-1
22	Scrool07	13.54	0

The final standings

This game is all about getting a balance between the variety of races that make up the series: after Scheldeprijs, Madrazo was top and Googolplex was last.   In the 4 races since then, Madrazo scored 56 points and Googolplex 1025.  Leadbelly scored a dozen points fewer, but had been mid-table before that final few hillier races.  All four Alaphilippe teams, including the aforementioned lanterne rouge team, make the final top ten.  And Leadbelly's margin over Josedin means that there's no argument about the notorious Huy photo changing the result.

Rank	Team	Points	Change in rank
1	Leadbelly	2602	0
2	Josedin	2341	0
3	Madrazo	2286	0
4	AmisVelo	2249	0
5	Otoxiep87	2248	2
6	Bminchow	2112	-1
7	Googolplex	2092	6
8	Ray10	2052	-2
9	Armchair	2026	3
10	MellowVelo	1994	-2
11	JustSomeGuy	1965	-2
12	RoteLaterne	1938	-2
13	Blues_in_the_Bottle	1928	-2
14	DJSprtsch	1812	0
15	SemirS	1774	0
16	Search	1766	2
17	ChrisDK	1736	-1
18	Del1962	1705	-1
19	Kazistuta	1640	0
20	Comodoro	1594	1
21	Triley36	1546	-1
22	Scrool07	1164	0
	CollectiveWisdom	2397

Averages from each forum:
Cycling News  1809
VeloRooms   2093

I should get time to do some analysis tomorrow, but until then, the reasons for your success or lack of it are revealed here.

[just some guy]

Fell out of the top 10

Congratulations Leadbelly,  nice one. The title stays on VR for another year

Thanks AC for running the game again

[Leadbelly]

Thank you sports fans, and thanks Armchair for running the game as always.

[Armchair Cyclist]

Is that it? You call that a victory speech?

[Leadbelly]

[Armchair Cyclist]

The riders

572 different riders scored points in these races: unfortunately, that only includes 80 of the 91 riders that we picked.  These are the highest scoring of them:

	Points	Cost	Teams
VAN AERT Wout	881	1702	0
ALAPHILIPPE Julian	625	1247	4
VAN DER POEL Mathieu	597	1264	6
PIDCOCK Thomas	534	57	8
ASGREEN Kasper	521	543	0
VALVERDE BELMONTE Alejandro	492	689	0
STUYVEN Jasper	478	502	3
VAN AVERMAET Greg	436	503	13
TRENTIN Matteo	397	370	5
MOLLEMA Bauke	387	310	0
VAN BAARLE Dylan	376	344	0
TURGIS Anthony	373	306	4
SENECHAL Florian	372	721	1
GAUDU David	352	484	0
MATTHEWS Michael	345	639	1
POGACAR Tadej	334	2044	0
NIZZOLO Giacomo	292	737	0
BENNETT Sam	268	901	0
SCHACHMANN Maximilian	266	956	0
COLBRELLI Sonny	260	347	1
PHILIPSEN Jasper	253	645	0
ARANBURU DEBA Alexander	253	298	0
MERLIER Tim	227	483	1
VERMEERSCH Gianni	226	348	0
LAPORTE Christophe	219	136	8
VANMARCKE Sep	216	70	19
VANSEVENANT Mauri	215	15	7
PEDERSEN Mads	213	736	4
WOODS Michael	213	666	3
BENOOT Tiesj	202	582	1
BALLERINI Davide	200	353	2

Being a good pick is not just about scoring high, but can be about good return on investments.  These guys scored at least 20 points, and at least 150% of cost.

	Points	Cost	%age	Teams
HERMANS Quinten	48	0	infinite	2
GRIGNARD Sébastien	25	0	infinite	0
NORSGAARD JØRGENSEN Mathias	20	0	infinite	1
COLMAN Alex	20	0	infinite	0
VANSEVENANT Mauri	215	15	1433.3	7
PIDCOCK Thomas	534	57	936.8	8
GESBERT Elie	52	6	866.7	0
PERRY Benjamin	25	4	625.0	0
DE PLUS Laurens	24	5	480.0	1
CAVENDISH Mark	71	15	473.3	0
VAN POPPEL Boy	47	10	470.0	0
KREDER Wesley	22	5	440.0	0
SIEBERG Marcel	20	5	400.0	0
APERS Ruben	20	5	400.0	0
RUSSO Clément	99	25	396.0	0
VANMARCKE Sep	216	70	308.6	19
ROBEET Ludovic	140	50	280.0	0
ZAKHAROV Artyom	25	9	277.8	0
RODRIGUEZ CANO Carlos	40	15	266.7	0
GAUDIN Damien	98	38	257.9	0
BURGHARDT Marcus	70	33	212.1	0
HOLLMANN Juri	30	15	200.0	0
BASSO Leonardo	20	10	200.0	0
VAN DER SANDE Tosh	136	71	191.5	0
SCHELLING Ide	150	79	189.9	0
VAN ASBROECK Tom	170	90	188.9	0
HAUSSLER Heinrich	133	79	168.4	0
LAPORTE Christophe	219	136	161.0	8
POLITT Nils	143	89	160.7	19
RESELL Erik Nordsaeter	34	22	154.5	0

[scrooll07]

This happens when you make a team in a hurry for 5mins a reminder to check the start dates better next time and avoiding the last place 

[Armchair Cyclist]

I started the analysis on Monday night, got distracted from it and posted an incomplete version at around midnight, and haven't had any time since.  But here is a bit more:

The impeccable picks
If your budget remaining for one last rider was in this range, this was the best you could do:

	Points won	range	teams
VAN AERT Wout	881	1702 +	0
ALAPHILIPPE Julian	625	1247-1701	4
PIDCOCK Thomas	534	57-1246	8
VANSEVENANT Mauri	215	15-56	7
GESBERT Elie	52	6-14	0
HERMANS Quinten	48	0-5	2

Collective Ignorance
It might seem to speak well of our selection ability that the Collective Wisdom team came 2nd with a very strong score despite a considerable underspend, but I was able to construct a team of those that nobody chose that would have won by a vast margin (score of 2898) that cost exactly the budget limit.

	Price	Points
ASGREEN Kasper	543	521
MOLLEMA Bauke	310	387
VAN BAARLE Dylan	344	376
ARANBURU DEBA Alexander	298	253
PHILIPSEN Jasper	645	253
VERMEERSCH Gianni	348	226
STEWART Jake	122	182
SCHELLING Ide	79	150
CHAMPOUSSIN Clément	111	141
ROBEET Ludovic	50	140
VAN DER SANDE Tosh	71	136
HAUSSLER Heinrich	79	133

Best possible team
I am always happy to be proven wrong, but the best scoring permutation I could come up with that was allowed (and had 5 budget points of loose change) is this lot, amassing 3700 points

	Price	Points	Teams
ALAPHILIPPE Julian	1247	625	4
PIDCOCK Thomas	57	534	8
TRENTIN Matteo	370	397	5
MOLLEMA Bauke	310	387	0
VAN BAARLE Dylan	344	376	0
TURGIS Anthony	306	373	4
LAPORTE Christophe	136	219	8
VANMARCKE Sep	70	216	19
VANSEVENANT Mauri	15	215	7
VAN ASBROECK Tom	90	170	0
ROBEET Ludovic	50	140	0
HERMANS Quinten	0	48	2

Hall of shame
If you did not do as well as you hoped, it is probably down to one or more of this bunch: theye were all selected, without being particularly cheap (>100 cost) and seriously under performed (<25% return)

	Points	Price	%age	teams
BATTISTELLA Samuele	0	104	0.0	1
CALMEJANE Lilian	0	125	0.0	1
JUNGELS Bob	0	136	0.0	8
TEUNISSEN Mike	0	172	0.0	1
HODEG CHAGUI Alvaro Jose	5	129	3.9	1
DEVENYNS Dries	17	338	5.0	1
CORT NIELSEN Magnus	10	178	5.6	1
DRUCKER Jempy	15	252	6.0	2
POELS Wout	24	382	6.3	1
BETTIOL Alberto	26	390	6.7	2
BARDET Romain	26	358	7.3	1
DEGENKOLB John	36	383	9.4	2
BISSEGGER Stefan	20	145	13.8	1
ANDERSEN Søren Kragh	98	649	15.1	1
COQUARD Bryan	50	331	15.1	1
VIVIANI Elia	45	261	17.2	1
MADOUAS Valentin	71	387	18.3	1
DE BUYST Jasper	24	129	18.6	1
BOASSON HAGEN Edvald	25	131	19.1	1
WELLENS Tim	83	431	19.3	6
TEUNS Dylan	75	385	19.5	2
VERMEERSCH Florian	41	208	19.7	1
SAGAN Peter	159	767	20.7	4
DEWULF Stan	30	132	22.7	1
LUTSENKO Alexey	93	397	23.4	2
VALGREN HUNDAHL (ANDERSEN) Michael	50	200	25.0	2

So how did they do so well?
Top four scorers for the top 5 teams:
Leadbelly: Alaphilippe, Pidcock, Van Avermaet, Matthews
Josedin: Pidcock, Turgis, Senechal, Vanmarcke
Madrazo: Stuyven, Van Avermaet, Laporte, Vanmarcke
Amis Velo: Van der Poel, Van Avermaet, Trentin, Vanmarcke
Otoxiep87:Alaphilippe, Pidcock, Laporte, Vanmarcke


Not all races are equal
Well, they are in the Green Jersey classification, but they vary vastly in how many points they contributed to the main game, partly because of CQ point allocations, and partly because of the popularity of riders who did well.

Ronde	7370
Omloop	4612
MSR	4448
E3	4370
KBK	3277
Dwars	2741
Strade	2546
Amstel	2135
Fleche	2079
Gent-Wev	1991
Brabantse	1762
LBL	1524
Koksijde	1060
GP Industria	910
Laigueglia	502
De Panne	370
Scheldeprijs	341
Nokere	273
GP Indurain	226
Ardeche	28
Drome	5

Let's hope that Paris-Roubaix is back in the mix for this game next year (and, I suppose, Frankfurt and Denain too)

Let us know if you find any other interesting data in the spreadsheet.


Thanks to all those who entered, and to CQrankings.com, and congratulations to Leadbelly, the podium teams, and to Madrazo on the green jersey win, and a special mention to ChrisDK for getting 2nd on the green classification with a team that was, by a very long way, lowest on the popularity ranking. 

and look out for the Giro CQ game, coming very soon, possibly before I go to bed tonight if I remain interruption free.