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Leadbelly

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The 2023 World Tour Race
« on: May 04, 2021, 10:18 »
A sister thread to the auto-wildcard one. This one will be even less frequently updated, though that could change in 2022 especially if things are hotting up.

The basic premise is that you tot up the UCI ranking points (top-ten scoring riders in your team for that year) for the years 2020/21/22 and if you are in the top-18 at the end you will be a WT team from 2023 onwards (for three years again?). There's always room for a UCI fudge or addendums suddenly appearing, but if you get in the top-18 you won't have to rely on stuff like that.

Who do you think will go down or is in trouble?

RankTeam2020 Points2021 Points2022 PointsTotal Points
1Deceuninck9776.166516.816292.96
2Jumbo9919495014869
3INEOS7628.33600013628.33
4UAE85034041.6612544.66
5Bora6738.5335410092.5
6Trek659131439734
7Astana66122698.429310.42
8DSM7582.7113088890.71
9Alpecin478836038391
10Groupama561426138227
11Bahrain468631947880
12BikeExchange49862774.337760.33
13EF5576.9912126788.99
14AG2R362828676495
15Movistar295327375690
16Arkea369717645461
17Lotto323117134944
18I-SUN235825844942
19Qhubeka2618.3318964514.33
20Cofidis280615784384
21CCC + Intermarche34348684302
22Wanty + Intermarche27788683646

A couple of points.

I've given two point totals for Intermarche. One using the CCC points and the other the Wanty score. It is the CCC licence that the team is using, but it feels much more like a Wanty continuation. Either way they are still in last position and without some massive changes in performance and/or riders, that is where they'll remain.

Secondly, will the teams "have" to become World Tour? Obviously I'm thinking of Alpecin here. They have this really cushy number at the moment which is even better than being a WT team really. I'm sure a lot of other teams would love to pick and choose their WT races. Uncle Pat has been complaining about it a bit and for once I think he's right to have a moan. My feeling is that this auto-wildcard will disappear sooner rather than later. Therefore their hand may be forced.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #1 on: June 01, 2021, 19:09 »
    Post Giro 2021.

    RankTeam2020 Points2021 Points2022 PointsTotal Points
    15Movistar295331976150
    16Arkea369723376034
    17I-SUN235831275485
    18Lotto323122085439
    19Cofidis280624515257
    20Qhubeka2618.3323244942.33
    21CCC + Intermarche343411364570
    22Wanty + Intermarche277811363914

    Qhubeka had a great Giro, but outside of Nizzolo you still wonder where their big points will come from.

    It's a similar story at Lotto really. You've got Ewan (and okay Wellens), but after that it's slim pickings and with money tight at the Belgian team, will they be able to strengthen in 2022?
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #2 on: July 23, 2021, 08:58 »
    Post Tour 2021.

    RankTeam2020 Points2021 Points2022 PointsTotal Points
    16Arkea369727986495
    17I-SUN235839016259
    18Cofidis280632276033
    19Lotto323124195650
    20Qhubeka2618.3327345352.33
    21CCC + Intermarche343416835117
    22Wanty + Intermarche277816834461

    No huge point gains from the earlier update tbh.

    Lotto have dropped down into the relegation zone as you can see and ~400 points is a fair gap to make up.

    One team that has been in the news recently is DSM. They're having a very poor season on and off the bike, but due to last year's scoring they are still in 11th overall on 9445.71. Even if 2022 was a poor year too, they could just still hang on I reckon.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #3 on: September 09, 2021, 22:05 »
    Found the rankings eventually.

    Post Vuelta (ish) 2021:

    RankTeam2020 Points2021 Points2022 PointsTotal Points
    16Arkea369738617558
    17I-SUN235846497007
    18CCC + Intermarche343434426876
    19Cofidis280640086814
    20Lotto323134036634
    ?Wanty + Intermarche277834426220
    21Qhubeka2618.3334576075.33

    Intermarche are on a charge! They (along with Qhubeka) looked a bit of a basket case earlier on in the season, but suddenly it's all change and if Kristoff can have a good 2022, then who knows.

    Final update of the year will be late October and then we can have a closer look at the relevant transfers over the winter.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #4 on: September 21, 2021, 16:53 »
    Woohoo! Somebody in twitter land is doing weekly updates. That'll save me a lot of work next year.

    Thanks Raul. :cool

    https://twitter.com/raulbanqueri/status/1440198756201230342



    Qhubeka well adrift now.

    I-SUN haven't dropped into the relegation zone as I feared and some good points today at Denain will give them a bit more breathing space.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #5 on: October 05, 2021, 18:24 »
    https://twitter.com/raulbanqueri/status/1445286115691442177



    You get the impression some teams are already on their beach towels, whereas others are playing right to the final whistle. The points scored now will be just as important as the ones that are scored in the final months of next year.

    Some good points for Vermeersch at PR enables Lotto to leapfrog Cofidis, but Intermarche and I-SUN are scoring even bigger and those totals above don't include today's wins from Van Poppel and De Marchi.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #6 on: October 12, 2021, 21:10 »
    https://twitter.com/raulbanqueri/status/1447829976439566342



    I-SUN and Intermarche with an almost 1000 point cushion above the relegation zone. The Belgian team now seem to be the only team that still have any puff left for the last few races. Let's see how big they can build that buffer.
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #7 on: October 13, 2021, 16:49 »
    #alpecin in 8th
    I wonder if the top-18 are required to take out a WT licence, or if they are only offered one (but can refuse)? Because as far as I can see, there's no real benefit in it for Alpecin-Fenix.
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    Leadbelly

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    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #8 on: October 13, 2021, 22:23 »
    They can't make them if they don't want to, but as I've suggested before I think the UCI will/should remove the auto-wildcards at some point, even if it's just for the one year when this competition is decided and force Alpecin's hand in that way. They could always bring it back afterwards in some form if there were multiple teams of a equal-ish level.

    However if that was happening ie. the auto-wildcards they're fighting over now are the last ones, then I would have expected the news to come out when the UCI had their annual shindig at the Worlds.
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  • t-72

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    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #9 on: October 13, 2021, 22:32 »
    I wonder if the top-18 are required to take out a WT licence, or if they are only offered one (but can refuse)? Because as far as I can see, there's no real benefit in it for Alpecin-Fenix.

    I think I agree with your analysis, being top ranked Pro team is the spot which maximises right to participate while keeping economic committments low possible, as they can actually choose to not participate in races more or less as they wish. I think they did that once this year.
    WT teams have to travel to all faraway places where racing takes place, while the top ranked #alpecin can negotiate a healthy bonus for their voluntary participation. All WT race organizers would like to see Mathieu van der Poel on the starting line.

    He's possible to beat on the road if you are Wout van Aert or someone like that, but business-wise, Mathieu van der Poel's cycling plan owns the entire World Tour concept this year and next year. Chapeau!
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #10 on: November 03, 2021, 12:54 »
    https://twitter.com/raulbanqueri/status/1452906709211549699



    2021 is a wrap. Just 12 months left in the competition. Unlike the auto-wildcard "league" this does have tension and  drama as team's fortunes ebb and flow. I think it's a good addition to cycling and gives an added interest outside standalone races.

    I'll maybe hazard some analysis another day, but I think we can draw a line above BikeExchange, who have had a crap year, and say anyone below that line is in the mix to varying degrees.
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #11 on: November 04, 2021, 13:41 »
    I'll maybe hazard some analysis another day, but I think we can draw a line above BikeExchange, who have had a crap year, and say anyone below that line is in the mix to varying degrees.
    Sounds reasonable.
    There is a big gap between #nexthash and #total #unox #bbhotels, though. And the gap to the top-18 is even bigger - I'd say it's virtually insurmountable. To make up the difference to #arkea, #total or #unox would have to score about twice as much as in the last two years combined, in one season.

    Therefore I'd say that #arkea #cofidis are in with a real shout at a WT licence while #bikeexchange #movistar #israel #iwg have to watch their backs and #lotto have to really step up their game if they want to keep their licence.
    What will be crucial is whether or not #alpecin will apply for a WT licence or not.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #12 on: November 05, 2021, 22:06 »
    #bikeexchange 9672 points - 1385 above the relegation zone

    Major Scorers in 2021 - Yates, Matthews and Chaves

    Significant Transfers: IN (none - maybe Sobrero) OUT (Chaves)

    They finished 19th this year, even behind Lotto. Both Yates and Matthews had so-so years. Copeland was talking earlier on this week about the team trying to be less reliant on that duo. However it's difficult to see where else major points can come from.

    The large buffer should see them safe, but with little depth to the team, an injury to either of their big names could spell trouble.

    #movistar 9609 points - 1322 above the relegation zone

    Major Scorers in 2021 - Valverde, Mas and Lopez

    Significant Transfers: IN (Aranburu and Sosa) OUT (Lopez and Soler)

    Neither Lopez or Soler scored what they are capable of, but losing them isn't the best way to ensure safety. However unlike BikeExchange they are moving in the right direction after an 11th placed finish this year. They've also got a bit more back-up than the Australian team.

    Should be okay, but with the usual caveats about injuries and Valverde's age.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #13 on: November 06, 2021, 12:05 »
    Feel free to chip if you agree or disagree.

    Btw I'm taking Major Scorers to be anyone who scored 500+ points.

    #israel 9063 points - 776 above the relegation zone

    Major Scorers in 2021 - Woods, Hermans, Hofstetter, Vanmarcke, De Marchi, Van Asbroeck and Martin

    Significant Transfers: IN (Fuglsang and Nizzolo) OUT (Hofstetter and Martin)

    A much better 2021 for the team (10th overall) and the lengthy list of major scorers tells it's own story. Not the youngest team by a long stretch which could lead to issues further down the line. However it's points now that are needed, so that shouldn't matter so much.

    Should be okay (touch wood) with enough strength in depth to cover most eventualities.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #14 on: November 07, 2021, 10:47 »
    #iwg 9005 points - 718 above the relegation zone

    Major Scorers in 2021 - Van Poppel, Ghirmay, Rota, Eiking and Pasqualon

    Significant Transfers: IN (Kristoff) OUT (Van Poppel and Eiking)

    Most seem to agree now that they'll take CCC's points from 2020. That combined with the amazing second half of the season that they've just had has given them real hope. The climbing dept. still looks a bit thin, but with their one-day team now having a full season from Ghirmay and adding Kristoff (who showed some encouraging late season form) to the mix, they might not have to rely on Meintjes and Taaramachine.

    Things look good for them, but may have to wait for the late season deluge of 1-day races to confirm their place.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #15 on: November 11, 2021, 20:06 »
    Getting to the nitty-gritty now.

    #arkea 8697 points - 410 above the relegation zone

    Major Scorers in 2021 - Quintana, Barguil, Swift and Welten

    Significant Transfers: IN (Hofstetter) OUT (Welten)

    Boosted by the great start Quintana had in 2020, things looked rosy for most of the season, but the late surges by I-SUN and Intermarche have seen Arkea sucked right back into things. Hofstetter is an excellent signing and they have a good density for the French calendar. WT I'm not so sure about. If they get an auto-wildcard prize, they may have to be a bit picky and forego some of the big races and target the points at smaller ones instead.

    In with a chance.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #16 on: November 16, 2021, 14:32 »
    #cofidis 8287 points - 410 from safety

    Major Scorers in 2021 - Laporte, Martin, Viviani and Herrada

    Significant Transfers: IN (Ion Izagirre + some maybes) OUT (Laporte and Viviani)

    Izagirre is a really good signing for them and while there is no doubt they have replaced a lot of dead wood with better riders in general, the loss of Laporte and Viviani is going to sting. They'll really need one or two of Le Coq/Cimo/Consonni/Walscheid to step up.

    Squeaky bum time for the Cofidis fans.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #17 on: November 20, 2021, 12:38 »
    Last one!

    #lotto 7935 points - 762 from safety

    Major Scorers in 2021 - Wellens, Ewan, Van der Sande, Degenkolb and Vermeersch

    Significant Transfers: IN (Campenaerts) OUT (Degenkolb and Van der Sande)

    They absolutely need Ewan to have a great year if they are to stand a chance and they have brought in some extra guys for his train. Similarly to Cofidis though their overall transfer balance is probably in the negative. De Lie and Drizners will/might be good riders a year or two down the line, but it's points in 2022 they need. Still got room for a signing or two, but the options are limited.

    In trouble.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #18 on: November 20, 2021, 12:48 »
    Time to stick my neck out (a bit).

     #movistar #israel #iwg Heading for safety?

     #bikeexchange Could easily get sucked in, but I think will just be okay.

     #arkea #cofidis We should know by the start of 2022 whether Alpecin have applied for a WT licence via this league. If they don't then both of these teams could be safe, but if MVDP and co decide to move up a level then it could be a French h2h over the last spot at the top table. Arkea to edge it imo.

     #lotto Relegation
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  • Armchair Cyclist

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    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #19 on: December 30, 2021, 13:26 »
    Decent YouTube analysis by Lanterne Rouge
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #20 on: December 30, 2021, 14:32 »
    Lmao. Can I just say as well that if any WT team is wanting help they can reach out (how I hate that phrase) to me too.

    I don't know if I would say that the scoring system is broken tbh. We've discussed it here on VR in years gone by that the allocated points do seem to favour classics guys over climbers and no doubt some slight rejigging could bring the scoring back on a more even keel, but when I look at the "league" table currently I don't see teams really out of position.

    Lotto are down there in the relegation zone for a reason and it's not because winning a Tour stage gives the same points as 6th in some one-day race.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #21 on: February 08, 2022, 18:34 »
    https://twitter.com/raulbanqueri/status/1490961478840889348



    Good starts to the season for Lotto and Cofidis, but tbh most of the teams down there haven't done too badly (one thing missing from Raul's graphics is the points scored since the last update - that would be handy).
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #22 on: February 21, 2022, 09:30 »
    https://twitter.com/raulbanqueri/status/1495671077476999168



    Still a fair gap between 18th and 19th, but Lotto have closed up on Cofidis and it's now IPT in the last safe spot.

    The upcoming classics will no doubt bring more changes to the table.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #23 on: March 17, 2022, 08:17 »
    Raul's excellent work has led to it now being hosted on Lanterne Rouge.

    https://twitter.com/raulbanqueri/status/1503394844097617924



    IPT are in a real poor run of form, and the above doesn't include yesterday's results.
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #24 on: April 25, 2022, 16:14 »
    Been a while since I've posted a Raul update, it's not pretty reading...

    https://twitter.com/raulbanqueri/status/1518593468309852161



    900 deficit for IPT and even worse for Lotto. If there's any consolation, it's that BikeExchange and EF are increasingly being drawn into the dogfight.
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  • LukasCPH

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    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #25 on: April 26, 2022, 09:23 »
    Something to remember in the relegation battle:
    https://twitter.com/raulbanqueri/status/1486278312863449088

    #arkea will almost certainly apply for a WT licence. If #alpecin do the same, all is as we expect - but if they don't, no. 19 will also be 'saved'.
    Though rumour has it that Alpecin will want the WT licence, after all.
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  • Mellow Velo

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    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #26 on: April 26, 2022, 13:43 »
     Lapparient defending the scoring system from accusations that it favours French..................sorry, teams that race regularly at 1.1 level, over those teams that are obligated to race all WT races.

    https://www.cyclingweekly.com/news/uci-president-david-lappartient-defends-promotion-and-relegation-system-it-certainly-has-its-advantages-for-the-competition
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    LukasCPH

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    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #27 on: April 29, 2022, 22:00 »
    Lapparient defending the scoring system from accusations that it favours French..................sorry, teams that race regularly at 1.1 level, over those teams that are obligated to race all WT races.
    :D
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  • Leadbelly

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    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #28 on: May 16, 2022, 12:18 »
    The failure of Yates yesterday will have more than one team silently giving thanks.

    Raul hasn't tweeted the updated rankings yet, but there is still a fair gap between 18th and 19th.
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  • Leadbelly

    • World Champion
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    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #29 on: May 16, 2022, 14:55 »
    https://twitter.com/WielerFlits/status/1526196620492152833

    Alpecin have applied to become WT.

    Quote from: Roodhooft
    “It is also not easy to win the UCI ProTeam ranking every year. We are now the best twice in a row, but this also creates a certain pressure. Two years ago there was already an opportunity to take over a WT license after CCC stopped, but we weren't ready then. We wanted to grow in an organic way. However, we are now seventh in the UCI Team ranking, based on the last two seasons. We feel the time is right.”

    So the cut-off will be be after 18th in the ranking, assuming of course that Astana and the Luxembourg investigation comes to naught.
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