I think it's very harsh on him as well. Of course a point can be made about the things you mention, but the guy is still only 22 and if we look at his results, which other sprinters at his age has shown the same amount of potential and gotten the similar results as him? Not very many.
How many 22-year-olds have beaten Van Hummel, Farrar, Greipel and Petacchi in Turkey? Which other 22-year-olds have beaten Chicchi, Bos, Galimzyanov and Haussler in Qatar? Not very many.
The fact is, he's still one of the most promising sprinters out there and he has a top speed which is higher than almost everyones.
I do agree though, that I probably had expected him to do a little better in Oman and Qatar this year, but looking at the quality of the sprinters there, who can really blame him? He's a small guy and he still has some work to do on his positioning which has been his main problem this year, but in a sprint where Sky, Liquigas, Project 1t4i, Katusha, Greenedge, FDJ, Lotto, Rabobank and OPQS all want to take part it's damn hard for a still quite inexperienced young sprinter to position well - especially without all that great of a lead out.
I think the main issue is that we probably expected too much of him based on his results last year. I mean if an unknown guy came out of nowhere and won 4-5 stages in Langkawi as well as getting a 2nd and a 3rd place in San Luis we would probably all be hyping him as the next big thing. Just like we did with Guardini last year.
So you agree that he has been OVER-RATED. I think that's the best assessment, his hype was too much and has been largely unable to deliver in the way we have seen from other riders in the past, such as Sagan, EBH, Degenkolb...
Anyway...
Riders performing better than Guardini (2011: 332 points, 2012: 165 so far) who are
still really young:
1. [SVK] SAGAN Peter LIQ 26/01/1990 1417 CQ Points, 15 victories, never faced Guardini
2. [ITA] VIVIANI Elia LIQ 07/02/1989 698 CQ Points, 8 victories, beaten by Guardini 2 times but Viviani won 1 in San Luis and Guardini placed higher than Viviani in 1 other in San Luis
4. [GER] DEGENKOLB John PRO 07/01/1989 639 CQ Points, 6 victories, Degenkolb beat Guardini in a sprint this year in Qatar
5. [AUS] MATTHEWS Michael RAB 26/09/1990 558 CQ Points, 3 victories, never faced Guardini
8. [FRA] DEMARE Arnaud FDJ 26/08/1991 353 CQ Points, 6 victories, Demare 1 win
These riders are debatably better because they are competitive in quality opposition:
10. [ITA] NIZZOLO Giacomo RNT 30/01/1989 329 CQ Points, 1 win (debatable)
You can also look at different types of riders and how much higher their CQ scores are:
3. [FRA] PINOT Thibaut FDJ 29/05/1990 649 CQ Points, 6 victories
6. [ITA] ULISSI Diego LAM 15/07/1989 488 CQ Points, 3 victories
9. [USA] PHINNEY Taylor BMC 27/06/1990 344 CQ Points, 1 win (debatable)
Condiering 2011 year you can add to the list:
7. [AUS] BOBRIDGE Jack GRM 13/07/1989 395 CQ Points
Competition that Sagan beats: speaks for itself
Competition that Viviani beats: Sagan, Visconti, Modolo, Galimz
Competition that Degenkolb beats: EBH, Farrar, Kittel, Marcato, Gilbert, Ciolek, Hutarovich
Competition that Matthews beats: Greipel, Goss, Ventoso, Kittel
Competition that Demare beats: Hutarovich, Renshaw, Sagan, Farrar, Galimz
