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DB-Coop

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Connect the dots - Transfer predictions 2014/15
« on: June 30, 2014, 14:43 »
The 'Transfers and Rumors' thread very much is full of news from other sources. This is a more speculative version of the same thread, asking "who should go where?" Below are two sites that can be helpful in finding out which riders are available.

Free riders - http://www.procyclingstats.com/statistics/114-contract-free-riders
Signed riders -  http://www.cyclingfever.com/transfers.html
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  • DB-Coop

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    Jakob Fuglsang - My best guess is he moves to Orica GreenEDGE, it seems a perfect fit, Jakob signed with Astana over Saxo to not be the 4th GC option at Astana he is 5th at the moment - Nibali, Aru, Scarponi and Kangert - so it looks like he will leave, Orica is looking for a GC contender (or two) and while Evans and Wiggins has been talk of the town, both have their prime behind them and reports are that none of those will happen. Kelderman seems the other obvious option, but he has far better chances with his current team. The uncertain future of Belkin may make that move happen though.
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  • DB-Coop

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    If TJVG and Talansky does well in the Tour both could stand to make a big pay check, all the teams with American sponsors will try and get them.
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  • Leadbelly

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    How about Jackie Haig to Garmin. Wouldn't be the first young Aussie to make the move to that team, and if Talansky and/or others are moving on then it would seem a good conveyor belt to get on.

    RDG is too good for continental. Surely Bretagne or somebody will pick him up for next year.

    Bagdonas to get away from AG2R and drop down a level. If An-Post are going Pro-Conti I'm sure they'd have him back.
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  • froome19

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    If TJVG and Talansky does well in the Tour both could stand to make a big pay check, all the teams with American sponsors will try and get them.
    Both of them have teams more than happy to support them in the future and seem to be relatively happy and satisfied.
    Can never tell what is going to happen with Tejay though. I really have no idea as to how he will go at the Tour.

    Fuglsang to Greenedge is a possibility. The only difficulty, is that in my eyes most riders who are looking to move would see OGRE as a perfect fit. They have a talented squad, but no GC contender or standout leader in anything much.
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    DB-Coop

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    Both of them have teams more than happy to support them in the future and seem to be relatively happy and satisfied.
    Can never tell what is going to happen with Tejay though. I really have no idea as to how he will go at the Tour.

    Not saying that paycheck can't be with their own team, but if Cannondale survives losing Basso and Sagan they will likely want an American captain meaning bidding for those two guys, politics.

    Fuglsang to Greenedge is a possibility. The only difficulty, is that in my eyes most riders who are looking to move would see OGRE as a perfect fit. They have a talented squad, but no GC contender or standout leader in anything much.

    Yes, but what Fuglsang has that a lot of other GC contenders doesn't have is a "cheap nationality" the lack of any Danish team to bid his price up will mean he will be worth less. Just look at the back end of some off the rosters, Lampre probably have 5 Itallians that wouldn't be WT if not for Lampre and Cannondale. Germany, Denmark, Spain (and Holland if both teams quit) all are such bargain countries. USA is just the opposite.
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  • ciranda

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    Fuglsang has a three year contract. Hi guys!
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  • DB-Coop

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    Fuglsang has a three year contract. Hi guys!

    Hi,  :hi welcome to VR  :party

    Did he re-sign, I know his original deal was 2 years.
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  • L'arri

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    RDG is too good for continental. Surely Bretagne or somebody will pick him up for next year.

    Agree too good but Di Grégorio is damaged goods even with a sans suite.

    It wouldn't be easy to step up again to a French team, the irony being that he would have been perfect for a team like Cofidis. ;) Maybe he could get a ride with the likes of Androni or Caja Rural.
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    L'arri

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    I could see Van Staeyen and/or Van Asbroeck (both #topsport) getting a little leg up. Perhaps to #wanty to replace an increasingly unremarkable Napolitano. It's Pro Conti to Pro Conti but TSV is a development team.

    Speaking of which Degand of #wanty is also out of contract and he has been quite impressive this season. I had him pegged for near-greatness a couple of seasons ago but he went so very quiet.

    Barguil should leave #giant if he wants to progress. #cofidis or #europcar with a bit of leadership.

    Hivert has done nothing at #belkin and should get out while he can. And who reckons #sky will keep Sutton this time around?

    Vaugrenard --> Glue Factory. I need an icon for that. ;)
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  • DB-Coop

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    Andy is apperently out of contract, and he says he want to return, I wonder if this doesn't mean he will ride for Tinkoff next season, it seems a good fit for both parties tbh.
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  • L'arri

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    Andy is apperently out of contract, and he says he want to return, I wonder if this doesn't mean he will ride for Tinkoff next season, it seems a good fit for both parties tbh.

    He will have to, ahem, change his ideas if he goes there. ;)

    Right now, I think there are two sides to this particular coin. Trek is soft on him because of his long history with it but it is also the one team that really knows what is going on with him and it may well feel that he is over.

    The press has been talking up the 'out of contract' angle but I don't remember reading any dark hints (yet) from the team that it wouldn't renew, or have I forgotten something significant? In any event, I could see a Vanendert- or Farrar-style one year deal as a last resort.

    We always used to say the two brothers should split up. It is a measure of things today that such an argument is no longer relevant to the younger Schleck's progress. Twenty nine now ... time flies.
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  • DB-Coop

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    He will have to, ahem, change his ideas if he goes there. ;)

    Right now, I think there are two sides to this particular coin. Trek is soft on him because of his long history with it but it is also the one team that really knows what is going on with him and it may well feel that he is over.

    The press has been talking up the 'out of contract' angle but I don't remember reading any dark hints (yet) from the team that it wouldn't renew, or have I forgotten something significant? In any event, I could see a Vanendert- or Farrar-style one year deal as a last resort.

    We always used to say the two brothers should split up. It is a measure of things today that such an argument is no longer relevant to the younger Schleck's progress. Twenty nine now ... time flies.

    Trek would not announce they wouldn't re-sign him, Andersen is friends with Schleck so even if they don't re-sign they will make it look like it could happen, so that other teams will still be interested, nothing is worse for a riders chance of another team signing him then the team he is on not wanting him. Secondly Andersen has said that Schleck's problems comes down to not putting in the work needed, and not being motivated enough. At the same time Schleck was talking about Bjarne as the best DS he ever had. Honestly I think it makes sense, Bjarne takes in Andy and Trek hand over Fränk as well (maybe pay some of his wages too) because they only hire him to make Andy happy. Bjarne gets a couple of nice pieces to add to his team, if he can motivate Andy he just won the lotto.
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  • L'arri

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    Trek would not announce they wouldn't re-sign him, Andersen is friends with Schleck so even if they don't re-sign they will make it look like it could happen, so that other teams will still be interested, nothing is worse for a riders chance of another team signing him then the team he is on not wanting him. Secondly Andersen has said that Schleck's problems comes down to not putting in the work needed, and not being motivated enough. At the same time Schleck was talking about Bjarne as the best DS he ever had. Honestly I think it makes sense, Bjarne takes in Andy and Trek hand over Fränk as well (maybe pay some of his wages too) because they only hire him to make Andy happy. Bjarne gets a couple of nice pieces to add to his team, if he can motivate Andy he just won the lotto.

    That's really good reasoning, DB. I think for me the dots on this one seem a bit far apart though! :D
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  • DB-Coop

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    That's really good reasoning, DB. I think for me the dots on this one seem a bit far apart though! :D

    Also Kim Andersen's contract with Trek is up this year, he refused to sign if Andy and Fränk were not both on the team, and is the guy they wanted, if he re-signs I think they stay, if he moves then he could take them with him. If he resigns then I would look for Bjarne to get them.
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  • Tuart

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    Barguil to Cofidis? They have such a great track record with Coppel and Taaramae, do you hate him that much? :D
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    DB-Coop

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    Popo to retire? Does he have any more years, I can't see him getting a new deal.
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  • Slow Rider

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    Popo to retire? Does he have any more years, I can't see him getting a new deal.

    Depends, he did some reasonably useful work for Cancellara this spring. If he asks the team management to give Popo another year, he'll get it. But if Cancellara feels there's better support riders for him then it could be done - and there's plenty of classics riders for pickup at Belkin and/or Giant.
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  • L'arri

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    Barguil to Cofidis? They have such a great track record with Coppel and Taaramae, do you hate him that much? :D

    Barguil to Sky for sure. That's why Brailsford was banging on about having a Frenchman win the Tour chez Sky.

    Kennaugh and Barguil are his future. Although Elissonde might want to get out from the shadow of golden boy Pinot if he wants to progress.
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  • Servais Knavendish

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    Any thoughts on a couple of British dots...?

    i) Alex Dowsett - think he is at end of two year deal, has won a GT stage, been a reasonable dom, but I wonder if either party will be looking to renew?

    ii) Adam Blythe has a Monaco lifestyle to fund, which surely needs more than NFTO wages.  He has probably done as well as he could against the opposition at national level, what chances of a return to the big show?
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  • cj2002

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    Any thoughts on a couple of British dots...?

    i) Alex Dowsett - think he is at end of two year deal, has won a GT stage, been a reasonable dom, but I wonder if either party will be looking to renew?

    All the interviews I have come across paint the picture of someone who is very happy at Movistar. He'll have been gutted to miss the Tour, of course, but that was through ill health and was followed by none of the histrionics that we saw from David Millar.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see him stay with Movistar. But I also can't think of where he might go that would be better for him if Movistar are giving him all the opportunities he wants.

    Quote
    ii) Adam Blythe has a Monaco lifestyle to fund, which surely needs more than NFTO wages.  He has probably done as well as he could against the opposition at national level, what chances of a return to the big show?

    Blythe deserves to be back in the top tier. But the problem he faces is the structural changes due next season. If teams have to shed riders - or if sponsors are shedding teams - when the music stops he won't have anywhere to sit down.
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  • He shook his head sadly and told me that endemic drug use had compelled him to give up a promising career. "Even one small local race, prize was a salami, and I see doping!" - Tim Moore: Gironimo (Riding the Very Terrible 1914 Tour of Italy)

    DB-Coop

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    Any thoughts on a couple of British dots...?

    i) Alex Dowsett - think he is at end of two year deal, has won a GT stage, been a reasonable dom, but I wonder if either party will be looking to renew?

    Movistar want him back, and Dowsett wouldn't mind staying either I think, however if somebody else want to pay him more he might sign elsewhere. I am 99% sure that Sky will offer him a contract, and most teams will have had initial talks with him is my guess.
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  • just some guy

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    All the interviews I have come across paint the picture of someone who is very happy at Movistar. He'll have been gutted to miss the Tour, of course, but that was through ill health and was followed by none of the histrionics that we saw from David Millar.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see him stay with Movistar. But I also can't think of where he might go that would be better for him if Movistar are giving him all the opportunities he wants.

    Blythe deserves to be back in the top tier. But the problem he faces is the structural changes due next season. If teams have to shed riders - or if sponsors are shedding teams - when the music stops he won't have anywhere to sit down.

    the structural changes is back to 2017fwiw

    Blythe is too lazy does not deserve anything in the big show now,

    what he needs is to get on a pro-conti team , maybe *it and show he has the drive for at least 1 season
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  • Of course, if this turns out someday to be the industry standard integrated handlebar-computer-braking solution then I'll eat my kevlar-reinforced aerodynamic hat.

    Larri Nov 12, 2014

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    Barguil to Sky for sure. That's why Brailsford was banging on about having a Frenchman win the Tour chez Sky.

    Kennaugh and Barguil are his future. Although Elissonde might want to get out from the shadow of golden boy Pinot if he wants to progress.

    During tonight's Tour rest day round up, ITV boldly announced that Tibaut Pinot has already signed for Sky for next season.
    Colour me surprised.
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  • "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.

    L'arri

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    During tonight's Tour rest day round up, ITV boldly announced that Tibaut Pinot has already signed for Sky for next season.
    Colour me surprised.

    Wow, that's nuts. :o
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  • LaVelocipede

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    Roche? Maybe? IAM? GreenEDGE? Please? I want him to lead someone.
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    42x16ss

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    Simon Gerrans has re-signed with OGE until the end of 2017. At 34 you'd imagine it's his last contract. Now they need come real climbers to mentor Chaves and the Yates boys. Keldermerckx, Fuglsang and/or Roche would be alright.

    Post Merge: July 16, 2014, 08:24
    Any thoughts on a couple of British dots...?

    i) Alex Dowsett - think he is at end of two year deal, has won a GT stage, been a reasonable dom, but I wonder if either party will be looking to renew?

    AFAIK that is a very happy pairing - Unzue likes Dowsett and needs a good rouleur, Dowsett likes the team setup. I suspect Sky or any other suitor will need some big $$$ to talk him into jumping ship. People also forget that Movistar offer something Sky can't - classics leadership. He's their best option for RvV and PR by a long way. Also good for stuff like De Panne and Eneco.
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  • Servais Knavendish

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    the structural changes is back to 2017fwiw

    Blythe is too lazy does not deserve anything in the big show now,

    what he needs is to get on a pro-conti team , maybe *it and show he has the drive for at least 1 season

    I think Blythe may have been too lazy, and too seduced by the lifestyle that can come with his trade.  Question is has his year of harder graft with NFTO and the albeit 3rd tier success shown more application.  Will be interesting to see if his status changes.

    Re structural change  - so we remain as we are for '15 and '16, with just the very real threat of team attrition ahead?
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  • just some guy

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    I think Blythe may have been too lazy, and too seduced by the lifestyle that can come with his trade.  Question is has his year of harder graft with NFTO and the albeit 3rd tier success shown more application.  Will be interesting to see if his status changes.

    Re structural change  - so we remain as we are for '15 and '16, with just the very real threat of team attrition ahead?
    As I understand it WT will be 2015,16 and then Div 1,2 proconti , Conti races split etc 2017
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  • DB-Coop

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    Fränk and Andy to Bretagne?

    Basically what do we know about the Schlecks, 1 they like to race together and love the Tour.

    Trek seems reluctant to re-sign Andy, Bjarne could be a good shot, but will he have space on his roster?

    Bretagne on the other hand will probably get invited to the tour, even more so with the brothers there, also would likely get invited to the Ardennes classics they like as well. Also the package could come cheap, and with Bretagne lacking the future French stars that other French teams have, it makes some sense for both team and riders imo.
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  • « Last Edit: July 18, 2014, 20:33 by DB-Coop »

     



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