Who will win PR ?

Greg van Avermaet
1 (3.6%)
Peter Sagan
2 (7.1%)
Phillipe Gilbert
5 (17.9%)
Nikki Terpstra
1 (3.6%)
Zdenek Stybar
11 (39.3%)
Sep van Marcke
0 (0%)
Jasper Stuyven
0 (0%)
John Degenkolb
1 (3.6%)
Alexander Kristoff
1 (3.6%)
Luke Rowe
0 (0%)
Wout van Aert
1 (3.6%)
Oliver Naeson
1 (3.6%)
Arnead Demare
1 (3.6%)
3 (10.7%)

Total Members Voted: 28

Voting closed: April 08, 2018, 11:54


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Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
« on: April 07, 2018, 13:06 »
first Star ratings in the papers today:

*be Het Nieuwsblad
:*:*:*:*:* Terpstra
:*:*:*:* Stybar, Sagan
:*:*:* Gilbert, Démare, van Avermaet
:*:* Vanmarcke, Stuyven, van Aert, Naesen
:* Lampaert, Degenkolb, Pedersen, Moscon, Trentin

t-72 will not approve :D

I couldn't let that one go  :angry

Or, actually - I don't think it is that bad  :) I agree that Terpstra is top favorite, he knows how to win here, he is in very good shape and he rides for the best team. Sagan, Van Avermaet, and Gilbert should also always be included as candidates. However, further down the list I am less certain.
Statistically, the Paris-Roubaix is the most difficult to win of all the monuments. There are very few if any in the past 10s of years that have won the Paris-Roubaix without previous experience from the race and at least one top 10 finish. Filtering Het Nieuwsblaads list by that criteria will be hard on the young ones on the list.

Let me present the P-R experience of the riders in a simple table:

ShirtTeamNameAgeparticipatons Best resultTOP 5TOP 10
#bmcBMCGreg van Avermaet328133
#quickstepQuickstep FloorsNiki Terpstra3310133
#trek Trek-SegafredoJohn Degenkolb296123
#ef EF – Drapac p/b CannondaleSep Vanmarcke296233
#quickstepQuickstep FloorsZdenek Stybar325234
#trek Trek-SegafredoJasper Stuyven254411
#skyTeam SkyGianni Moscon232511
#boraBora-HansgrohePeter Sagan286611
#fdjGroupama-FDJArnaud Demare264601
#quickstepQuickstep FloorsYves Lampaert263701
#ag2rAG2ROliver Naesen2733100
#mitcheltonMitchelton-ScottMatteo Trentin2853600
#quickstepQuickstep FloorsPhilippe Gilbert3515200
#trek *dkTrek-SegafredoMads Pedersen2219500
#verandasVerandas WilhelmsWout van Aert230

4 riders on the list are top 10 candidates, not winner candidates:
#verandas Wout van Aert: hasn't even done the race before, cyclocross worlds doesn't count here - OUT
#trek *dk Mads Pedersen has  only one previous participation, finished in 95th position - OUT
#mitchelton Mateo Trentin: 5 previous participations, best previous result 46th, - OUT
#quickstep Philippe Gilbert: 1 previous participation long ago, and not very good - OUT

In place of these I would put some other riders with previous top 10 finishes, for example:
#ef Sebastian Langeveld
#mitchelton Matt Hayman
#sky Ian Stannard
#didata Edvald Boasson Hagen  :D (you knew I had too  :angel )

EDIT: surprised me a little bit too see how few top results Sagan has in this race. Moscon already has better results than him!

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