Who will win PR ?

Greg van Avermaet
1 (3.6%)
Peter Sagan
2 (7.1%)
Phillipe Gilbert
5 (17.9%)
Nikki Terpstra
1 (3.6%)
Zdenek Stybar
11 (39.3%)
Sep van Marcke
0 (0%)
Jasper Stuyven
0 (0%)
John Degenkolb
1 (3.6%)
Alexander Kristoff
1 (3.6%)
Luke Rowe
0 (0%)
Wout van Aert
1 (3.6%)
Oliver Naeson
1 (3.6%)
Arnead Demare
1 (3.6%)
3 (10.7%)

Total Members Voted: 28

Voting closed: April 08, 2018, 11:54


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Re: 2018 Paris Roubaix
« on: April 08, 2018, 08:24 »
Here's some statistics for you, this is why I say no-one wins this race first time they try. The racers listed include some of this years favorites and all winners from the last 15 years.  The results are listed per year from the year of their first participation. None of the winners won until the 4th year after their first participation. Both Boonen and Cancellara won their first victory in their 4th participation. If someone wins it first year, they will be nominated for instant league of legends status!
I also heard, and recounted, that in order to win in this race, you need at least 1 top 10 finish earlier. For the winners from the last 15 years, that is almost true. Stuart O'Grady won in 2007, without a previous top 10.
Now there's a lot of hype surrounding Wout van Aert especially, but I hope his management has done a good job of making him understand that a victory is highly unlikely, a top 5 is an exceptional debut (only Boonen managed this), and a top 10 is a very good start (Boonen/Bäckstedt/Stybar). If van Aeart really thinks he is going to win this, I hope he thinks "but maybe not this year".

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