collapse


Armchair Cyclist

  • Classics Winner
  • *
  • *
  • Country: 00
  • Posts: 3267
  • Liked: 3446
  • Awards: 2020 Tour de France Prediction Champ2020 Worlds Prediction Champ2019 Spring Classics Prediction Champ2018 Tour de France CQ game winner
2021 Giro CQ Game
« on: April 30, 2021, 00:37 »
We are back to May, the natural home of the Giro d'Italia, and of its CQ game.


cqranking.com (highly recommended results and reference site) allocates points for races of .1 category and above, and the running total of riders over the last year (to Sunday 2nd May, which are in a download on CQ released on Monday 3rd) is their cost in this game.  You have 3500 of those points to spend on 8 riders who are taking part in the Giro

Your score is the CQ points they gain in the Giro (points for the top ten, 70 to the winner, in each stage; the same scale of points for the final points and mountains classifications; 18 points for the pink jersey wearer going into each stage; and final GC position with scores from 500 for the winner down to 15 for all finishers)  The prices, start list, and full score charts are on a spreadsheet that you can download from Google Drive here.  That spreadsheet will also give the version of riders' names which I would ask you to use.

Your list of riders should be with me (send a personal message on Cycling News or VeloRooms, CQ version of names and nothing else on the same line please) before Stage 1 starts at 14:00 Italian time on Saturday 8th May.  If your team is over budget or you select a rider who does not start, I will try to alert you to the need to change, but if you don't, I'll swap him for the next cheapest rider.  There will be updates after each stage.



I have run a couple of trial selections: with the depressed scores in 2020 making many riders rather inexpensive, I am expecting massive scores this edition.

And, as ever, good luck to all.
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: May 03, 2021, 17:28 by Armchair Cyclist »

    Armchair Cyclist

    • Classics Winner
    • *
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 3267
    • Liked: 3446
    • Awards: 2020 Tour de France Prediction Champ2020 Worlds Prediction Champ2019 Spring Classics Prediction Champ2018 Tour de France CQ game winner
    Re: 2021 Giro CQ Game
    « Reply #1 on: May 03, 2021, 17:36 »
    The CQ prices are updates, and that is on the selection spreadsheet.  Time to get those teams sorted and submitted.
  • ReplyReply

  • search

    • World Champion
    • *
    • Country: de
    • Posts: 14586
    • Liked: 14219
    • Awards: Member of the year 2016Post of the year 2016KeithJamesMC 2016Member of the year 20152012 CQ Ranking Tour GameAvatar of the Year 2013
    Re: 2021 Giro CQ Game
    « Reply #2 on: May 03, 2021, 18:52 »
    here's also the startlist with cq values.

    edit: all teams are confirmed

    #ineos      INEOS GRENADIERS      :cool      #bardiani      BARDIANI CSF FAIZANE'      :cool   
          BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley      711            VISCONTI Giovanni      130   
          CASTROVIEJO NICOLAS Jonathan      139            BATTAGLIN Enrico      139   
          GANNA Filippo      797            CARBONI Giovanni      42   
          MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe      494            FIORELLI Filippo      178   
          MOSCON Gianni      97            GABBURO Davide      61   
          NARVAEZ PRADO Jhonatan Manuel      188            MARENGO Umberto      40   
          PUCCIO Salvatore      65            ZANA Filippo      67   
          SIVAKOV Pavel      330            ZOCCARATO Samuele      18   
                2821                  675   
    #ag2r      AG2R CITROEN TEAM      :cool      #bora      BORA - HANSGROHE      :cool   
          GALLOPIN Tony      64            SAGAN Peter      864   
          BIDARD François      47            ALEOTTI Giovanni      51   
          BOUCHARD Geoffrey      106            BENEDETTI Cesare      50   
          CHAMPOUSSIN Clément      277            BODNAR Maciej      65   
          GOUGEARD Alexis      95            BUCHMANN Emanuel      157   
          NAESEN Lawrence      127            FABBRO Matteo      271   
          VENDRAME Andrea      314            GROSSSCHARTNER Felix      344   
          WARBASSE Larry      113            OSS Daniel      73   
                1143                  1875   
    #alpecin      ALPECIN-FENIX      :cool      #cofidis      COFIDIS      :cool   
          MERLIER Tim      633            VIVIANI Elia      278   
          DE BONDT Dries      259            BERHANE Natnael Teweldemedhin      16   
          JANSSENS Jimmy      49            CONSONNI Simone      161   
          KRIEGER Alexander      285            EDET Nicolas      65   
          LEYSEN Senne      89            LAFAY Victor      118   
          RIESEBEEK Oscar      99            ROCHAS Rémy      170   
          VERMEERSCH Gianni      478            SABATINI Fabio      25   
          VERVAEKE Louis      58            VIVIANI Attilio      23   
                1950                  856   
    #androni      ANDRONI GIOCATTOLI - SIDERMEC      :cool      #deceuninck      DECEUNINCK - QUICK-STEP      :cool   
          CEPEDA ORTIZ Jefferson Alexander      113            EVENEPOEL Remco      474   
          PELLAUD Simon      101            ALMEIDA Joao Pedro Gonçalves      1365   
          PONOMAR Andriy      11            CAVAGNA Rémi      376   
          RAVANELLI Simone      114            HONORE Mikkel Frølich      394   
          SEPULVEDA Eduardo      130            KEISSE Iljo      119   
          TAGLIANI Filippo      50            KNOX James      213   
          TESFATSION Natnael Ocbit      211            MASNADA Fausto      462   
          VENCHIARUTTI Nicola      20            SERRY Pieter      180   
                750                  3583   
    #astana      ASTANA - PREMIER TECH      :cool      #ef      EF EDUCATION - NIPPO      :cool   
          VLASOV Aleksandr      1085            CARTHY Hugh      756   
          BATTISTELLA Samuele      64            BETTIOL Alberto      87   
          FELLINE Fabio      228            CAICEDO CEPEDA Jonathan Klever      120   
          IZAGIRRE INSAUSTI Gorka      440            CARR Simon      168   
          PRONSKIY Vadim      49            GUERREIRO Ruben Antonio Almeida      311   
          SANCHEZ GIL Luis Leon      402            KEUKELEIRE Jens      35   
          SOBRERO Matteo      67            VAN DEN BERG Julius      25   
          TEJADA CANACUE Harold Alfonso      76            VAN GARDEREN Tejay      55   
                2411                  1557   
    #bahrain      BAHRAIN VICTORIOUS      :cool      #eolo      EOLO-KOMETA CYCLING TEAM      :cool   
          LANDA MEANA Mikel      917            ALBANESE Vincenzo      53   
          BILBAO LOPEZ DE ARMENTIA Pello      883            BELLETTI Manuel      39   
          ARASHIRO Yukiya      47            CHRISTIAN Mark      5   
          CARUSO Damiano      507            DINA Marton      13   
          MÄDER Gino      271            FORTUNATO Lorenzo      30   
          MOHORIC Matej      296            GAVAZZI Francesco      13   
          TRATNIK Jan      197            RAVASI Edward      46   
          VALLS FERRI Rafael      35            RIVI Samuele      5   
                3153                  204   
    #groupama      GROUPAMA - FDJ      :cool      #bikeexchange      TEAM BIKEEXCHANGE      :cool   
          MOLARD Rudy      331            YATES Simon      557   
          BADILATTI Matteo      200            HEPBURN Michael      19   
          DUCHESNE Antoine      10            JUUL JENSEN Christopher      70   
          GUGLIELMI Simon      63            KANGERT Tanel      60   
          REICHENBACH Sébastien      219            MEYER Cameron      140   
          SEIGLE Romain      59            NIEVE ITURRALDE Mikel      221   
          VALTER Attila      265            SCHULTZ Nicholas      222   
          VAN DEN BERG Lars      10            SCOTSON Callum      35   
                1157                  1324   
    #iwg      INTERMARCHÉ - WANTY - GOBERT MATÉRIAUX      :cool      #dsm      TEAM DSM      :cool   
          HIRT Jan      70            HINDLEY Jai      620   
          HERMANS Quinten      57            ARNDT Nikias      50   
          KREDER Wesley      32            BARDET Romain      375   
          MINALI Riccardo      57            DENZ Nico      159   
          PASQUALON Andrea      283            HAMILTON Chris      99   
          PETILLI Simone      87            KANTER Max      96   
          TAARAMÄE Rein      28            ROCHE Nicolas      117   
          VAN DER HOORN Taco      96            STORER Michael      101   
                710                  1617   
    #israel      ISRAEL START-UP NATION      :cool      #qhubeka      TEAM QHUBEKA ASSOS      :cool   
          MARTIN Daniel      547            NIZZOLO Giacomo      780   
          BEVIN Patrick      113            CAMPENAERTS Victor      269   
          BRÄNDLE Matthias      89            FRANKINY Kilian      70   
          CIMOLAI Davide      64            LINDEMAN Bert-Jan      89   
          DE MARCHI Alessandro      252            POZZOVIVO Domenico      174   
          DOWSETT Alex      178            SCHMID Mauro      50   
          NEILANDS Krists      128            WALSCHEID Maximilian      203   
          NIV Guy      44            WISNIOWSKI Lukasz      73   
                1415                  1708   
    #jumbo      JUMBO-VISMA      :cool      #trek      TREK - SEGAFREDO      :cool   
          BENNETT George      680            NIBALI Vincenzo      604   
          AFFINI Edoardo      100            BRAMBILLA Gianluca      263   
          BOUWMAN Koen      109            CICCONE Giulio      306   
          DEKKER David      93            DE KORT Koen      30   
          FOSS Tobias Svendsen      155            GEBREIGZABHIER Amanuel Werkilul      79   
          GROENEWEGEN Dylan      0            MOLLEMA Bauke      811   
          MARTENS Paul      40            MOSCA Jacopo      250   
          VAN EMDEN Jos      94            MOSCHETTI Matteo      131   
                1271                  2474   
    #lotto      LOTTO SOUDAL      :cool      #uae      UAE TEAM EMIRATES      :cool   
          EWAN Caleb      638            FORMOLO Davide      164   
          DE BUYST Jasper      116            CONTI Valerio      123   
          DE GENDT Thomas      236            COVI Alessandro      114   
          GOOSSENS Kobe      117            DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd      44   
          KLUGE Roger      71            GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando      241   
          MARCZYNSKI Tomasz      30            MOLANO BENAVIDES Juan Sebastian      41   
          OLDANI Stefano      80            RICHEZE Maximiliano Ariel      0   
          VANHOUCKE Harm      192            ULISSI Diego      850   
                1480                  1577   
    #movistar      MOVISTAR TEAM      :cool                     
          SOLER GIMENEZ Marc      553                     
          CATALDO Dario      82                     
          JORGENSON Matteo      131                     
          OLIVEIRA Nelson Filipe Santos Simoes      295                     
          PEDRERO LOPEZ Antonio      178                     
          RUBIO REYES Einer Augusto      88                     
          TORRES BARCELO Albert      59                     
          VILLELLA Davide      71                     
                1457                     
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: May 06, 2021, 07:42 by search »
    "If this is cycling, I am a banana"

    Armchair Cyclist

    • Classics Winner
    • *
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 3267
    • Liked: 3446
    • Awards: 2020 Tour de France Prediction Champ2020 Worlds Prediction Champ2019 Spring Classics Prediction Champ2018 Tour de France CQ game winner
    Re: 2021 Giro CQ Game
    « Reply #3 on: May 07, 2021, 23:04 »
    https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1390681516636786693

    That's not really the format I would have wanted you to submit your entry in Davide, but OK.

    In the 29 teams that have been submitted properly, 43 riders have been named (rather fewer than typical, the usual wide variety of cheaper picks not being needed at these prices).  11 of them are unique picks, 5 of them on more than half the teams (and 8 teams have all 5 of them), and one rider is every team bar one that was randomly selected.

    But there are still about 14 hours for you to disrupt the statistics.  Don't be late.
  • ReplyReply

  • Armchair Cyclist

    • Classics Winner
    • *
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 3267
    • Liked: 3446
    • Awards: 2020 Tour de France Prediction Champ2020 Worlds Prediction Champ2019 Spring Classics Prediction Champ2018 Tour de France CQ game winner
    Re: 2021 Giro CQ Game
    « Reply #4 on: May 08, 2021, 14:22 »
    And off we go.

    40 teams in the end: great to have some new and returning managers, as well as our diehards.

    Teams listed alphabetically, riders within teams by cost, and the asterisks indicate unique picks.


    Amis Velo

       SAGAN Peter   
       CARTHY Hugh   
       YATES Simon   
       MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe   
       EVENEPOEL Remco   
       FORMOLO Davide   
       BUCHMANN Emanuel   
       GROENEWEGEN Dylan   

    Archie Boy
       SAGAN Peter   
       CARTHY Hugh   
       YATES Simon   
       EVENEPOEL Remco   
       CAVAGNA Rémi   
       VANHOUCKE Harm   
       BUCHMANN Emanuel   
       BEVIN Patrick   

    Armchair Cyclist
       CARTHY Hugh   
       BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley   
       YATES Simon   
       MARTIN Daniel   
       MASNADA Fausto   
       FORMOLO Davide   
       BUCHMANN Emanuel   
       BEVIN Patrick   

    Berflamand
       BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley   
       MERLIER Tim   
       YATES Simon   
       EVENEPOEL Remco   
       SIVAKOV Pavel   
       CICCONE Giulio   
       GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando   
       FORMOLO Davide   

    Bicycle Boy
       SAGAN Peter   
       MERLIER Tim   
       YATES Simon   
       MARTIN Daniel   
       EVENEPOEL Remco   
       KNOX James   *
       BUCHMANN Emanuel   
       GROENEWEGEN Dylan   

    BikeRacer33
       CARTHY Hugh   
       EWAN Caleb   
       YATES Simon   
       SOLER GIMENEZ Marc   
       EVENEPOEL Remco   
       SIVAKOV Pavel   
       BUCHMANN Emanuel   
       GROENEWEGEN Dylan   

    Blues in the Bottle
       CARTHY Hugh   
       BENNETT George   
       EWAN Caleb   
       YATES Simon   
       SOLER GIMENEZ Marc   
       BUCHMANN Emanuel   
       CEPEDA ORTIZ Jefferson Alexander   
       DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd   *

    Bminchow
       VLASOV Aleksandr   
       BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley   
       YATES Simon   
       EVENEPOEL Remco   
       SIVAKOV Pavel   
       FORMOLO Davide   
       BUCHMANN Emanuel   
       GROENEWEGEN Dylan
       (DEKKER David)   

    Bonimenier
       CARTHY Hugh   
       BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley   
       EWAN Caleb   
       YATES Simon   
       EVENEPOEL Remco   
       VANHOUCKE Harm   
       BUCHMANN Emanuel   
       GROENEWEGEN Dylan   

    ChrisDK
       BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley   
       EWAN Caleb   
       YATES Simon   
       EVENEPOEL Remco   
       MASNADA Fausto   
       SIVAKOV Pavel   
       VANHOUCKE Harm   
       CEPEDA ORTIZ Jefferson Alexander   

    Comodoro
       SAGAN Peter   
       BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley   
       YATES Simon   
       EVENEPOEL Remco   
       SIVAKOV Pavel   
       CICCONE Giulio   
       BUCHMANN Emanuel   
       DEKKER David   

    Del 1962
       BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley   
       EWAN Caleb   
       YATES Simon   
       EVENEPOEL Remco   
       MASNADA Fausto   
       SIVAKOV Pavel   
       FORMOLO Davide   
       BUCHMANN Emanuel   

    Devil's Elbow
       VLASOV Aleksandr   
       CARTHY Hugh   
       YATES Simon   
       EVENEPOEL Remco   
       SIVAKOV Pavel   
       BUCHMANN Emanuel   
       CEPEDA ORTIZ Jefferson Alexander   
       GROENEWEGEN Dylan   

    Fivezzz
       CARTHY Hugh   
       BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley   
       YATES Simon   
       MARTIN Daniel   
       EVENEPOEL Remco   
       POZZOVIVO Domenico   
       BUCHMANN Emanuel   
       CEPEDA ORTIZ Jefferson Alexander   

    Googleplex
       VLASOV Aleksandr   
       LANDA MEANA Mikel   
       BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley   
       YATES Simon   
       BUCHMANN Emanuel   
       MINALI Riccardo   *
       BERHANE Natnael Teweldemedhin   *
       GROENEWEGEN Dylan   

    Kazistuta
       BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley   
       YATES Simon   
       MARTIN Daniel   
       EVENEPOEL Remco   
       BARDET Romain   
       CICCONE Giulio   
       VIVIANI Elia   
       BUCHMANN Emanuel   

    Koronin
       LANDA MEANA Mikel   
       YATES Simon   
       SOLER GIMENEZ Marc   
       EVENEPOEL Remco   
       PASQUALON Andrea   *
       VIVIANI Elia   
       GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando   
       JORGENSON Matteo   *

    Laarsland
       VLASOV Aleksandr   
       YATES Simon   
       SIVAKOV Pavel   
       CICCONE Giulio   
       VIVIANI Elia   
       FORMOLO Davide   
       CEPEDA ORTIZ Jefferson Alexander   
       DEKKER David   

    Leadbelly
       ALMEIDA Joao Pedro Gonçalves   
       BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley   
       YATES Simon   
       EVENEPOEL Remco   
       BUCHMANN Emanuel   
       CEPEDA ORTIZ Jefferson Alexander   
       MOSCON Gianni   
       GROENEWEGEN Dylan   

    Lecko
       BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley   
       EWAN Caleb   
       YATES Simon   
       MARTIN Daniel   
       EVENEPOEL Remco   
       GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando   
       POZZOVIVO Domenico   
       BUCHMANN Emanuel   

    Los Brolin
       ALMEIDA Joao Pedro Gonçalves   
       BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley   
       YATES Simon   
       EVENEPOEL Remco   
       BUCHMANN Emanuel   
       MOSCON Gianni   
       DEKKER David   
       TAARAMÄE Rein   

    Madrazo
       BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley   
       HINDLEY Jai   
       YATES Simon   
       MARTIN Daniel   
       EVENEPOEL Remco   
       SIVAKOV Pavel   
       BUCHMANN Emanuel   
       GROENEWEGEN Dylan   

    Mellow Velo
       CARTHY Hugh   
       BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley   
       YATES Simon   
       EVENEPOEL Remco   
       MASNADA Fausto   
       BARDET Romain   
       FORMOLO Davide   
       GROENEWEGEN Dylan   

    Nathanptz
       SAGAN Peter   
       BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley   
       YATES Simon   
       EVENEPOEL Remco   
       CAVAGNA Rémi   
       SIVAKOV Pavel   
       BUCHMANN Emanuel   
       GROENEWEGEN Dylan   

    Northerner
       BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley   
       EWAN Caleb   
       YATES Simon   
       EVENEPOEL Remco   
       BARDET Romain   
       SIVAKOV Pavel   
       GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando   
       BUCHMANN Emanuel   

    Nyssinator
       CARTHY Hugh   
       BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley   
       EWAN Caleb   
       YATES Simon   
       EVENEPOEL Remco   
       BUCHMANN Emanuel   
       MOSCON Gianni   
       GROENEWEGEN Dylan   

    Otoxiep87
       CARTHY Hugh   
       BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley   
       EWAN Caleb   
       YATES Simon   
       EVENEPOEL Remco   
       FORMOLO Davide   
       FOSS Tobias Svendsen   *
       GROENEWEGEN Dylan   

    Redhead Dane
       ALMEIDA Joao Pedro Gonçalves   
       BENNETT George   
       SOLER GIMENEZ Marc   
       MOHORIC Matej   *
       BUCHMANN Emanuel   
       PUCCIO Salvatore   *
       SEIGLE Romain   *
       HERMANS Quinten   

    Rote Laterne
       VLASOV Aleksandr   
       LANDA MEANA Mikel   
       BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley   
       YATES Simon   
       BUCHMANN Emanuel   
       BELLETTI Manuel   *
       TAARAMÄE Rein   
       GROENEWEGEN Dylan   

    Rufs
       SAGAN Peter   
       BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley   
       EWAN Caleb   
       YATES Simon   
       MARTIN Daniel   
       MOSCON Gianni   
       HERMANS Quinten   
       GROENEWEGEN Dylan   

    Safe Bet
       VLASOV Aleksandr   
       BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley   
       YATES Simon   
       EVENEPOEL Remco   
       SIVAKOV Pavel   
       FORMOLO Davide   
       BUCHMANN Emanuel   
       GROENEWEGEN Dylan   
       (RUBIO REYES Einer Augusto)

    Salvarani
       ALMEIDA Joao Pedro Gonçalves   
       YATES Simon   
       MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe   
       EVENEPOEL Remco   
       BARDET Romain   
       BUCHMANN Emanuel   
       CIMOLAI Davide   
       GROENEWEGEN Dylan   

    Scrooll07
       CARTHY Hugh   
       BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley   
       YATES Simon   
       SOLER GIMENEZ Marc   
       EVENEPOEL Remco   
       VIVIANI Elia   
       BUCHMANN Emanuel   
       GROENEWEGEN Dylan   

    Search
       LANDA MEANA Mikel   
       CARTHY Hugh   
       YATES Simon   
       EVENEPOEL Remco   
       BARDET Romain   
       BUCHMANN Emanuel   
       BEVIN Patrick   
       CEPEDA ORTIZ Jefferson Alexander   

    Shalgo
       LANDA MEANA Mikel   
       CARTHY Hugh   
       YATES Simon   
       EVENEPOEL Remco   
       SIVAKOV Pavel   
       CHAMPOUSSIN Clément   *
       BUCHMANN Emanuel   
       GROENEWEGEN Dylan   

    Tobydawq
       SAGAN Peter   
       BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley   
       YATES Simon   
       MARTIN Daniel   
       EVENEPOEL Remco   
       BUCHMANN Emanuel   
       BEVIN Patrick   
       GROENEWEGEN Dylan   

    Triley36
       LANDA MEANA Mikel   
       BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley   
       HINDLEY Jai   
       YATES Simon   
       SIVAKOV Pavel   
       FORMOLO Davide   
       BUCHMANN Emanuel   
       GROENEWEGEN Dylan   

    Vladimir
       LANDA MEANA Mikel   
       BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley   
       YATES Simon   
       SOLER GIMENEZ Marc   
       BARDET Romain   
       FORMOLO Davide   
       BUCHMANN Emanuel   
       CIMOLAI Davide   

    Yellow Knight
       CARTHY Hugh   
       EWAN Caleb   
       HINDLEY Jai   
       YATES Simon   
       EVENEPOEL Remco   
       CAVAGNA Rémi   
       ALBANESE Vincenzo   *
       GROENEWEGEN Dylan   

    Zaka Fan
       SAGAN Peter   
       BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley   
       MERLIER Tim   
       YATES Simon   
       SIVAKOV Pavel   
       FORMOLO Davide   
       BEVIN Patrick   
       GROENEWEGEN Dylan   

    You may have noticed that two teams have a 9th man.  Bminchow and Safe Bet picked identical teams, so, following the precedent in last year's Giro, they were each invited to pick an extra rider to a maximum cost of 100 points who will only affect their standings vis-a-vis each other, not the game in general.  So some placing will be decided by the realive scores of Dekker and Rubio.
  • ReplyReply

  • Armchair Cyclist

    • Classics Winner
    • *
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 3267
    • Liked: 3446
    • Awards: 2020 Tour de France Prediction Champ2020 Worlds Prediction Champ2019 Spring Classics Prediction Champ2018 Tour de France CQ game winner
    Re: 2021 Giro CQ Game
    « Reply #5 on: May 08, 2021, 16:16 »
    Riders

    As a few managers mentioned in sending in their team, this edition is almost unrestricted as the prices of so many riders are Covid-depressed.  Fewer limitations on picks have meant fewer cheap makeweights in teams, especially when a major rider is as cheap as is possible.  That means we have only 47 of the 184 riders among our selections, and no fewer than five on more than half the teams.

    And finally, after ten years or so, we have a rider who is, essentially, a universal pick (and therefore entirely redundant in the game).  Redhead Dane has made it clear that her team is selected on a random basis, so the 39 teams that were selected with some degree of deliberation comprise the 39 teams that have Simon Yates.

    39 teams: YATES Simon
    31: BUCHMANN Emanuel
    30: EVENEPOEL Remco
    27: BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley
    23: GROENEWEGEN Dylan
    15: CARTHY Hugh, SIVAKOV Pavel
    12: FORMOLO Davide
    Those 8 make the Collective Wisdom team: no need for any budget adjustments, they cost 3149

    11: EWAN Caleb
    8: MARTIN Daniel, SAGAN Peter
    7: CEPEDA ORTIZ Jefferson Alexander, LANDA MEANA Mikel
    6: BARDET Romain, SOLER GIMENEZ Marc, VLASOV Aleksandr
    5: BEVIN Patrick
    4: ALMEIDA Joao Pedro Gonçalves, CICCONE Giulio, GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando, MASNADA Fausto, MOSCON Gianni, VIVIANI Elia
    3: CAVAGNA Rémi, DEKKER David, HINDLEY Jai, MERLIER Tim, VANHOUCKE Harm
    2: BENNETT George, CIMOLAI Davide, HERMANS Quinten, MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe, POZZOVIVO Domenico, TAARAMÄE Rein

    and the riders on just one team are marked above.

    Team popularity
    The sum of your rider popularities
    1    Bminchow    183
    1    SafeBet    183
    3    Nyssinator    180
    4    Bonimenier    179
    5    Madrazo    176
    5    Nathanptz    176
    7    Scrooll07    175
    8    Tobydawq    171
    9    BikeRacer33    170
    10    Del1962    169
    11    DevilsElbow    166
    12    Leadbelly    165
    13    Northerner    163
    14    Shalgo    161
    15    AmisVelo    160
    16    Fivezzz    159
    17    Otoxiep87    158
    18    Comodoro    157
    18    Triley36    157
    20    Mellow_Velo    156
    21    Lecko    152
    22    Kazistuta    149
    23    BicycleBoy    143
    24    Armchair_Cyclist    141
    25    LosBrolin    140
    25    Search    140
    27    Salvarani    137
    28    ChrisDK    136
    28    Rote_Laterne    136
    30    Googolplex    135
    31    ArchieBoy    134
    31    Berflamand    134
    33    ZakaFan    132
    34    Vladimir    130
    35    Yellow_Knight    125
    36    Rufs    122
    37    BluesInTheBottle    112
    38    Koronin    92
    39    Laarsland    90
    40    RedheadDane    48
        Collective_Wisdom    192

    Bminchow/Safe Bet differ from the collective Wisdom team only in having Vlasov rather than Carthy.  At the other end, Redhead Dane's team is, as already stated, randomised, and Laarsland was operating to a budget of 3000 rather than 3500 points, but was so emotionally vested in his riders that he refused the invitation to change them.

    Major picks
    Who does each team have that is more expensive than Yates?


    Almeida with Bernal:    Leadbelly, Los Brolin
        with Bennett:    Redhead Dane 
        only:    Salvarani   
               
    Vlasov with Landa and Bernal:    Googolplex, Rote Laterne   
        with Carthy:    Devil's Elbow
        with Bernal:    Bminchow,  Safe Bet
        only:    Laarsland             

    Landa    with Carthy:    Search,  Shalgo
        with Bernal and Hindley:    Triley36   
        with Bernal:    Vladimir   
        only:    Koronin           

    Sagan    with Carthy:    Amis Velo, Archie Boy
        with Bernal and Ewan:    Rufs 
        with Bernal and Merlier:    Zaka Fan   
        with Bernal:    Comodoro, Nathanptz, Tobydawq   
        with Merlier:    Bicycle Boy       

    Carthy    with Bernal and Ewan:    Bonimenier, Nyssinator, Otoxiep87   
        with Bernal:    Armchair Cyclist, Fivezzz, Mellow Velo, Scrooll07   
        with Bennett and Ewan:    Blues in the Bottle   
        with Ewan and Hindley:    Yellow Knight   
        with Ewan:    BikeRacer33   

    Bernal    with Ewan:    ChrisDK, Del 1962, Lecko, Northerner   
        with Merlier:    Berflamand   
        with Hindley:    Madrazo   
        only:    Kazistuta
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: May 08, 2021, 16:56 by Armchair Cyclist »

    Armchair Cyclist

    • Classics Winner
    • *
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 3267
    • Liked: 3446
    • Awards: 2020 Tour de France Prediction Champ2020 Worlds Prediction Champ2019 Spring Classics Prediction Champ2018 Tour de France CQ game winner
    Re: 2021 Giro CQ Game
    « Reply #6 on: May 08, 2021, 16:45 »
    I need to spend some time without a spreadsheet in front of me: don't expect today's results (which serve largely as a testing of the speadsheet) until late evening at best.
  • ReplyReply

  • Armchair Cyclist

    • Classics Winner
    • *
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 3267
    • Liked: 3446
    • Awards: 2020 Tour de France Prediction Champ2020 Worlds Prediction Champ2019 Spring Classics Prediction Champ2018 Tour de France CQ game winner
    Re: 2021 Giro CQ Game
    « Reply #7 on: May 09, 2021, 00:25 »
    Stage 1 Turin TT

    Ganna has not had a total collapse in form, TJV have some nifty bikes, and Evenepoel is good, but not as good as he might have been.

    Purple points
    Purple because I don't believe that colour is ever called cyclamen; these points because these are the points that CQ gives to the top 10 in a stage.  These points are not lost even if the rider fails to finish the Giro; the same applies to the 18 points that Ganna gets for having a pink jersey to wear tomorrow (but that is not in this classification).

    Points Teams
    GANNA Filippo      70      0
    AFFINI Edoardo      40      0
    FOSS Tobias Svendsen      25      1
    ALMEIDA Joao Pedro Gonçalves      15      4
    CAVAGNA Rémi      10      3
    VAN EMDEN Jos      7      0
    EVENEPOEL Remco      5      30
    WALSCHEID Maximilian      3      0
    BRÄNDLE Matthias      2      0
    MOSCON Gianni      1      4

    The unique pick of Foss gives Otoxiep the first lead in this minor classification
    1 Otoxiep87 30
    2=      Leadbelly & LosBrolin      21
    4      Salvarani      20
    5=      ArchieBoy/Nathanptz/RedheadDane/Yellow_Knight      15
    9      Nyssinator      6
    10=      Evenepoel teams   5
    32      Rufs      1
    33=      The rest   0
          Collective_Wisdom      5

    Pink points
    The main game.  This includes: the purple points as above; the pink jersey bonuses already mentioned; the points for GC standings (by far the biggest contribution to most riders' scores);points for the sprint jersey standings, on the same basis as stage points; and (starting tomorrow and up to a top ten by a few stages in) KoM classification points on the same distribution.  The last three are projections, and so will gradually become more realistic projections as the race goes on.

    Having three riders in the top ten, as Los Brolin has, will outscore having two as Otoxiep does, because the drop off in scores is not as dramatic in the GC points allocation as with the stage points.

    1 LosBrolin 770
    2      Leadbelly      733
    3      Otoxiep87      731
    4      Salvarani      623
    5      Nathanptz      601
    6      ArchieBoy      584
    6      Yellow_Knight      584
    8      Bminchow      492
    8      SafeBet      492
    10      Nyssinator      472
    11      DevilsElbow      469
    12      RedheadDane      423
    13      Del1962      399
    14      Fivezzz      397
    15      AmisVelo      393
    15      Comodoro      393
    15      Mellow_Velo      393
    18      Berflamand      389
    19      Lecko      380
    20      ChrisDK      368
    21      BikeRacer33      364
    21      Shalgo      364
    23      Northerner      358
    24      Madrazo      356
    25      Bonimenier      350
    25      Scrooll07      350
    27      Koronin      343
    28      Search      339
    29      Laarsland      333
    30      Kazistuta      331
    30      Tobydawq      331
    32      BicycleBoy      320
    33      Rufs      268
    34      Googolplex      251
    34      Rote_Laterne      251
    36      Armchair_Cyclist      208
    37      Triley36      202
    37      ZakaFan      202
    39      Vladimir      177
    40      BluesInTheBottle      154
          Collective_Wisdom      406

    The Dekker/Rubio tiebreak between the identical Bminchow/SafeBet teams, and the principle of separating any other teams with identical scores (ignore the top scoring rider, then compare the scores of the next highest that is not common to both teams) is not really worth applying unless the teams are very near the top: I will probably resort to it only if teams are in the top 5 and in the final table.  But as an example, Archie and Yellow Knight have the same men as the top four scorers, but although their 5th men are both on 15 points, Sagan (for Archie) is higher in GC than Hindley (for YK), so if I needed to differentiate, Archie would be 6th.

    Treat these scores with as much credibility as you would the current GC as a forecast of what will be the case in three weeks time.

    Inter forum competition
    I probably won't post it every day, but in the last few games I have taken to putting up an average score for the contributors from the two forums that host the games.  I omit my score from the competition: I include Amis Velo, who I know in real life and often sends me his team by text or on the back of an envelope, on VeloRooms because if he does submit a team by PM, he does so there.
    So far, Team VeloRooms has won every time.
    After one stage Team VeloRooms (AmisVelo, ArchieBoy, BikeRacer33, ChrisDK, Leadbelly, Mellow_Velo, Otoxiep87, Rote_Laterne, Scrooll07, Search, ZakaFan) 428
    Cycling News Forumites (everyone else, bar me) 394

    The spreadsheet
    Where all the real work is done, is available here: I won't paste the link every daily update, but you know where to find it.  And if you actually know anything about Excel, rather than just hacking through it by trial and error like I do, and spot any gross inefficiencies in it, please let me know.



  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: May 09, 2021, 00:49 by Armchair Cyclist »

    Armchair Cyclist

    • Classics Winner
    • *
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 3267
    • Liked: 3446
    • Awards: 2020 Tour de France Prediction Champ2020 Worlds Prediction Champ2019 Spring Classics Prediction Champ2018 Tour de France CQ game winner
    Re: 2021 Giro CQ Game
    « Reply #8 on: May 10, 2021, 00:15 »
    Stage 2 A sprint and a minor internal war in UAE

    Rider points teams
    MERLIER Tim      70      3
    NIZZOLO Giacomo      40      0
    VIVIANI Elia      25      4
    GROENEWEGEN Dylan      15      23
    SAGAN Peter      10      8
    MOSCHETTI Matteo      7      0
    FIORELLI Filippo      5      0
    NAESEN Lawrence      3      0
    CIMOLAI Davide      2      2
    EWAN Caleb      1      11


    Purple points

    When teams have a large proportion of their budget spent on multiple sprinters, such as Merlier + Ewan in the case of the top two today, I wonder whether they are targetting this classification, or whether they see the balance of stage and GC points differently from me.  But then, look where I am in the table.
    Teamspoints today
    1=      BicycleBoy      95
    1=      ZakaFan      95
    3      Berflamand      70
    4      Scrooll07      40
    5      Rufs      26
    6=      AmisVelo/Kazistuta/Koronin/Laarsland/Nathanptz/Tobydawq   25
    12      Salvarani      17
    13=      Groenewegen +Ewan teams      16
    18=      Groenewegen teams      15
    28=      ArchieBoy/Comodoro      10
    30      Vladimir      2
    31=      Ewan teams   1
    36=      The rest      0
          Collective_Wisdom      15


    Standings

    The scores in this classification are cumulative, rather than fluctuating as in the main game.

    Name Points
    1      BicycleBoy      100
    2      ZakaFan      95
    3      Berflamand      75
    4      Otoxiep87      46
    5      Scrooll07      45
    6      Nathanptz      40
    7      Salvarani      37
    8      Leadbelly      36
    9      Yellow_Knight      31
    10      AmisVelo      30
    10      Kazistuta      30
    10      Koronin      30
    10      Tobydawq      30
    14      Rufs      27
    15      ArchieBoy      25
    15      Laarsland      25
    17      Nyssinator      22
    18      BikeRacer33      21
    18      Bonimenier      21
    18      LosBrolin      21
    21      Bminchow      20
    21      DevilsElbow      20
    21      Madrazo      20
    21      Mellow_Velo      20
    21      SafeBet      20
    21      Shalgo      20
    27      Comodoro      15
    27      Googolplex      15
    27      RedheadDane      15
    27      Rote_Laterne      15
    27      Triley36      15
    32      ChrisDK      6
    32      Del1962      6
    32      Lecko      6
    32      Northerner      6
    36      Fivezzz      5
    36      Search      5
    38      Vladimir      2
    39      BluesInTheBottle      1
    40      Armchair_Cyclist      0
          Collective_Wisdom      20

    Pink points

    Because the GC/Sprint/KoM points are projections based on current position, riders can move down the tables as well as up, so their scores can decrease as well as increase.  The daily points changes show changes in rank in those classifications, as well as the daily stage points and the jersey bonus.  That jersey bonus can build up very significantly: last year Almeida got more CQ points in the Giro than Geoghegan Hart.

    I will only show a few of the winners/losers each day, and only those that have been selected for the game.  Evenepoel's 2 seconds at the intermediate sprint today make a difference.

    change since yest Popularity
    MERLIER Tim      140      3
    ALBANESE Vincenzo      70      1
    EVENEPOEL Remco      70      30
    VIVIANI Elia      50      4
    GROENEWEGEN Dylan      30      23
    SAGAN Peter      20      8
    FOSS Tobias Svendsen      -25      1
    CAVAGNA Rémi      -35      3
    ALMEIDA Joao Pedro Gonçalves      -40      4

    And because rider's scores can go down, so can those of a team, although that only befell one team today.

    Name Change
    1      BicycleBoy      260
    2      Berflamand      210
    3      ZakaFan      190
    4      Scrooll07      150
    5      Yellow_Knight      136
    6      AmisVelo      120
    6      Kazistuta      120
    6      Koronin      120
    6      Tobydawq      120
    10      BikeRacer33      101
    10      Bonimenier      101
    12      Bminchow      100
    12      DevilsElbow      100
    12      Madrazo      100
    12      Mellow_Velo      100
    12      Nyssinator      100
    12      SafeBet      100
    12      Shalgo      100
    19      Comodoro      90
    20      Nathanptz      85
    21      Otoxiep87      76
    22      ChrisDK      71
    22      Del1962      71
    22      Lecko      71
    22      Northerner      71
    26      Fivezzz      70
    26      Search      70
    28      Salvarani      62
    29      Leadbelly      59
    30      ArchieBoy      55
    31      Laarsland      50
    31      Rufs      50
    33      Googolplex      30
    33      Rote_Laterne      30
    33      Triley36      30
    36      LosBrolin      29
    37      Vladimir      2
    38      BluesInTheBottle      1
    39      Armchair_Cyclist      0
    40      RedheadDane      -40
          Collective_Wisdom      100

    Standings
    Yesterday's successful teams are higher than today's, because the natures of yesterday's race makes more impact on GC than today's.  Sprint stages are unlikely to bring about huge changes in the standings here.

    Name Points position change on day
    1      Otoxiep87      807      2
    2      LosBrolin      799      -1
    3      Leadbelly      792      -1
    4      Yellow_Knight      720      2
    5      Nathanptz      686      0
    6      Salvarani      685      -2
    7      ArchieBoy      639      -1
    8      Berflamand      599      10
    9      Bminchow      592      -1
    9      SafeBet      592      -1
    11      BicycleBoy      580      21
    12      Nyssinator      572      -2
    13      DevilsElbow      569      -2
    14      AmisVelo      513      1
    15      Scrooll07      500      10
    16      Mellow_Velo      493      -1
    17      Comodoro      483      -2
    18      Del1962      470      -5
    19      Fivezzz      467      -5
    20      BikeRacer33      465      1
    21      Shalgo      464      0
    22      Koronin      463      5
    23      Madrazo      456      1
    24      Bonimenier      451      1
    24      Kazistuta      451      6
    24      Lecko      451      -5
    24      Tobydawq      451      6
    28      ChrisDK      439      -8
    29      Northerner      429      -6
    30      Search      409      -2
    31      ZakaFan      392      6
    32      Laarsland      383      -3
    32      RedheadDane      383      -20
    34      Rufs      318      -1
    35      Googolplex      281      -1
    35      Rote_Laterne      281      -1
    37      Triley36      232      0
    38      Armchair_Cyclist      208      -2
    39      Vladimir      179      0
    40      BluesInTheBottle      155      0
          Collective_Wisdom      506   

    Tomorrow should see some riders losing time and GC placings, and therefore others gaining points apart from the stage points.
  • ReplyReply

  • Armchair Cyclist

    • Classics Winner
    • *
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 3267
    • Liked: 3446
    • Awards: 2020 Tour de France Prediction Champ2020 Worlds Prediction Champ2019 Spring Classics Prediction Champ2018 Tour de France CQ game winner
    Re: 2021 Giro CQ Game
    « Reply #9 on: May 11, 2021, 01:05 »
    Stage 3  Bora shed most of the sprinters, but couldn't catch the break (and no-one else helped much.)

    With the generosity of this year's budget, it would appear we all went for sprinters rather than break away men.  In a 'normal' year, I suspect a known breakaway prospect like TvdH would have been on one or two teams.

    pointsteams
    VAN DER HOORN Taco      70      0
    CIMOLAI Davide      40      2
    SAGAN Peter      25      8
    VIVIANI Elia      15      4
    BEVIN Patrick      10      5
    VERMEERSCH Gianni      7      0
    GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando      5      4
    BETTIOL Alberto      3      0
    OLDANI Stefano      2      0
    MOSCA Jacopo      1      0

    Purple points

    1=   Salvarani & Vladimir   40 Cimolai
    3=      ArchieBoy/Tobydawq/ZakaFan      35 Sagan & Bevin
    6=      AmisVelo/BicycleBoy/Comodoro/Nathanptz/Rufs      25 Sagan
    11      Koronin      20 Viviani and Gaviria
    12=      Kazistuta/Laarsland/Scrooll07      15 Viviani
    15=      Armchair_Cyclist/Search      10 Bevin
    17=      Berflamand/Lecko/Northerner      5 Gaviria
    20      The rest (incl Collective Wisdom)   0

    Standings

    Pos Name Total purple change
    1      ZakaFan      130      1
    2      BicycleBoy      125      -1
    3      Berflamand      80      0
    4      Salvarani      77      3
    5      Nathanptz      65      1
    5      Tobydawq      65      5
    7      ArchieBoy      60      8
    7      Scrooll07      60      -2
    9      AmisVelo      55      1
    10      Rufs      52      4
    11      Koronin      50      -1
    12      Otoxiep87      46      -8
    13      Kazistuta      45      -3
    14      Vladimir      42      24
    15      Comodoro      40      12
    15      Laarsland      40      0
    17      Leadbelly      36      -9
    18      Yellow_Knight      31      -9
    19      Nyssinator      22      -2
    20      BikeRacer33      21      -2
    20      Bonimenier      21      -2
    20      LosBrolin      21      -2
    23      Bminchow      20      -2
    23      DevilsElbow      20      -2
    23      Madrazo      20      -2
    23      Mellow_Velo      20      -2
    23      SafeBet      20      -2
    23      Shalgo      20      -2
    29      Googolplex      15      -2
    29      RedheadDane      15      -2
    29      Rote_Laterne      15      -2
    29      Search      15      7
    29      Triley36      15      -2
    34      Lecko      11      -2
    34      Northerner      11      -2
    36      Armchair_Cyclist      10      4
    37      ChrisDK      6      -5
    37      Del1962      6      -5
    39      Fivezzz      5      -3
    40      BluesInTheBottle      1      -1
          Collective_Wisdom      20   

    Pink points

    6 of the top 15 from yesterday lost a lot of time, so most of those who were in the 4" group gained a bunch of GC points

    Gain/loss today teams
    MOSCON Gianni      80      4
    SAGAN Peter      71      8
    VLASOV Aleksandr      70      6
    FOSS Tobias Svendsen      60      1
    EVENEPOEL Remco      50      30
    CIMOLAI Davide      47      2
    POZZOVIVO Domenico      34      2
    VIVIANI Elia      31      4
    GROENEWEGEN Dylan      -10      23
    SEIGLE Romain      -10      1
    DEKKER David      -37      3


    Maybe we are not so bad at  this game after all; on a day of big changes, few selected riders lost much, and all teams are in the black.

    TeamChange today
    1      ArchieBoy      205
    2      AmisVelo      197
    3      Nathanptz      196
    4      Bminchow      194
    4      SafeBet      194
    6      Leadbelly      183
    7      Otoxiep87      182
    8      Rufs      179
    9      Nyssinator      178
    10      DevilsElbow      172
    11      Tobydawq      164
    12      ZakaFan      160
    13      Berflamand      156
    13      LosBrolin      156
    15      Koronin      155
    16      Salvarani      154
    17      Del1962      153
    18      Comodoro      144
    18      Lecko      144
    20      Fivezzz      142
    21      Mellow_Velo      141
    22      Scrooll07      139
    23      ChrisDK      133
    24      Northerner      132
    25      BicycleBoy      131
    26      Laarsland      130
    27      Kazistuta      119
    27      Vladimir      119
    29      Armchair_Cyclist      116
    30      BikeRacer33      112
    31      Yellow_Knight      107
    32      Search      105
    32      Shalgo      105
    34      Bonimenier      102
    34      Madrazo      102
    36      Googolplex      98
    36      Rote_Laterne      98
    38      Triley36      76
    39      BluesInTheBottle      65
    40      RedheadDane      60
          Collective_Wisdom      144


    Standings

    If there weren't 18 stages left, one might comment on how the top three seem to be pulling away from the rest.

    Name Points change
    1      Otoxiep87      989      0
    2      Leadbelly      975      1
    3      LosBrolin      955      -1
    4      Nathanptz      882      1
    5      ArchieBoy      844      2
    6      Salvarani      839      0
    7      Yellow_Knight      827      -3
    8      SafeBet      786      2
    9      Bminchow      786      1
    10      Berflamand      755      -2
    11      Nyssinator      750      1
    12      DevilsElbow      741      1
    13      BicycleBoy      711      -2
    14      AmisVelo      710      0
    15      Scrooll07      639      0
    16      Mellow_Velo      634      0
    17      Comodoro      627      0
    18      Del1962      623      0
    19      Koronin      618      3
    20      Tobydawq      615      4
    21      Fivezzz      609      -2
    22      Lecko      595      2
    23      BikeRacer33      577      -3
    24      ChrisDK      572      4
    25      Kazistuta      570      -1
    26      Shalgo      569      -5
    27      Northerner      561      2
    28      Madrazo      558      -5
    29      Bonimenier      553      -5
    30      ZakaFan      552      1
    31      Search      514      -1
    32      Laarsland      513      0
    33      Rufs      497      1
    34      RedheadDane      443      -2
    35      Googolplex      379      0
    35      Rote_Laterne      379      0
    37      Armchair_Cyclist      324      1
    38      Triley36      308      -1
    39      Vladimir      298      0
    40      BluesInTheBottle      220      0
          Collective_Wisdom      650   
    Tomorrow should be somewhat similar, with climbers overtaking TT riders who have an unsustainably high GC position, mainly to the benefit of our teams.  But presumably more beneficial to some teams more than others,
  • ReplyReply

  • Armchair Cyclist

    • Classics Winner
    • *
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 3267
    • Liked: 3446
    • Awards: 2020 Tour de France Prediction Champ2020 Worlds Prediction Champ2019 Spring Classics Prediction Champ2018 Tour de France CQ game winner
    Re: 2021 Giro CQ Game
    « Reply #10 on: May 12, 2021, 08:01 »
    Testing: it wouldn't let me post here last night. 

    Good, it seems OK now.

    Stage 4 Into the Apennines in the rain, and uncertain GC significance 


    We did not cover ourselves in glory, with three exceptions, in the selection of breakaway riders.  I have had Dombrowski in GT GC games for years in the expectation of this, but not, of course, this time.

    pointsTeams
    DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd      70      1 (Blues in the Bottle)
    DE MARCHI Alessandro      40      0
    FIORELLI Filippo      25      0
    VERVAEKE Louis      15      0
    TRATNIK Jan      10      0
    VALTER Attila      7      0
    EDET Nicolas      5      0
    OLIVEIRA Nelson Filipe Santos Simoes      3      0
    TAARAMÄE Rein      2      2 (Los Brolin & Rote Laterne)
    JUUL JENSEN Christopher      1      0

    Purple standings
    Not worth posting tables ton1ght: two points move Rote Laterne up one place to 29 and keep Los Brolin steady in 20th, but 70 points bring Blues in the Bottle from 40th (and last) to 5th!

    Pink Points
    Well, as predicted, lots of non GC guys fell away (and a couple of presumed GC contenders), but a new bunch of interlopers have invaded the top of GC, and taken huge amounts of points, albeit probably temporarily.

    Points change Teams
    DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd      505      1
    TAARAMÄE Rein      108      2
    CARTHY Hugh      81      15
    BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley      76      27
    LANDA MEANA Mikel      75      7
    CICCONE Giulio      59      4
    BARDET Romain      55      6
    MARTIN Daniel      47      8
    FORMOLO Davide      34      12
    YATES Simon      34      39
    HINDLEY Jai      33      3
    BUCHMANN Emanuel      31      31
    POZZOVIVO Domenico      -30      2
    MOHORIC Matej      -33      1
    SAGAN Peter      -41      8
    JORGENSON Matteo      -43      1
    MOSCON Gianni      -137      4
    EVENEPOEL Remco      -150      30
    CAVAGNA Rémi      -225      3
    ALMEIDA Joao Pedro Gonçalves      -241      4
    FOSS Tobias Svendsen      -333      1

    The range of point changes today is bigger than the range of scores after stage 3.  The top ten in today's scores includes 8 of the bottom ten this morning, and the bottom seven today were the top seven this morning.

    The boost to some of these teams may be a passing flattery: the damage to the Evenepoel teams may be temporary.  The injury to the prospects of the Almeida teams seems more likely to last.

    Name Gain/loss
    1      BluesInTheBottle      684
    2      Vladimir      328
    3      Rote_Laterne      319
    4      Armchair_Cyclist      293
    5      Triley36      276
    6      Googolplex      211
    7      Kazistuta      151
    8      Laarsland      124
    9      Search      122
    10      Mellow_Velo      119
    11      Scrooll07      93
    12      ZakaFan      92
    13      Fivezzz      89
    14      Madrazo      64
    15      Bonimenier      63
    16      Shalgo      61
    17      Berflamand      32
    18      Northerner      25
    19      Bminchow      18
    19      SafeBet      18
    21      Del1962      17
    22      BikeRacer33      16
    23      Comodoro      7
    24      DevilsElbow      -11
    24      Lecko      -11
    26      Tobydawq      -12
    27      AmisVelo      -18
    28      Rufs      -26
    29      ChrisDK      -52
    30      Nyssinator      -70
    31      Koronin      -77
    32      BicycleBoy      -79
    33      RedheadDane      -210
    34      Yellow_Knight      -262
    35      Otoxiep87      -263
    36      ArchieBoy      -278
    37      LosBrolin      -279
    38      Nathanptz      -282
    38      Salvarani      -282
    40      Leadbelly      -392
          Collective_Wisdom      99


    Standings

    Whatever you thought of your team yesterday: think again.  BitB pulls off the Foinavon/Steven Bradbury/Matthew 20:16 of all CQ game history by jumping from last to first in one go, while 4 of yesterday's top ten are now in the bottom ten.

    Name Points Change
    1      BluesInTheBottle      904      39
    2      SafeBet      804      6
    3      Bminchow      804      6
    4      Berflamand      787      6
    5      Mellow_Velo      753      11
    6      Scrooll07      732      9
    7      DevilsElbow      730      5
    8      Otoxiep87      726      -7
    9      Kazistuta      721      16
    10      Fivezzz      698      11
    10      Rote_Laterne      698      25
    12      AmisVelo      692      2
    13      Nyssinator      680      -2
    14      LosBrolin      676      -11
    15      ZakaFan      644      15
    16      Del1962      640      2
    17      Laarsland      637      15
    18      Search      636      13
    19      Comodoro      634      -2
    20      BicycleBoy      632      -7
    21      Shalgo      630      5
    22      Vladimir      626      17
    23      Madrazo      622      5
    24      Armchair_Cyclist      617      13
    25      Bonimenier      616      4
    26      Tobydawq      603      -6
    27      Nathanptz      600      -23
    28      BikeRacer33      593      -5
    29      Googolplex      590      6
    30      Northerner      586      -3
    31      Lecko      584      -9
    31      Triley36      584      7
    33      Leadbelly      583      -31
    34      ArchieBoy      566      -29
    35      Yellow_Knight      565      -28
    36      Salvarani      557      -30
    37      Koronin      541      -18
    38      ChrisDK      520      -14
    39      Rufs      471      -6
    40      RedheadDane      233      -6
          Collective_Wisdom      749   

    SafeBet sits 2nd above the identical 8 men in Bminchow's selection by virtue of Rubio being 68th in GC, and Dekker 163rd: neither of the tie-breaker riders have any points other than their likely 15 for finishing.

    The inter-forum battle is a lot closer than it was, but VR stay ahead by 649-634.

    Tomorrow should see very little change.  Certainly when compared to this.
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: May 12, 2021, 08:22 by Armchair Cyclist »

    Armchair Cyclist

    • Classics Winner
    • *
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 3267
    • Liked: 3446
    • Awards: 2020 Tour de France Prediction Champ2020 Worlds Prediction Champ2019 Spring Classics Prediction Champ2018 Tour de France CQ game winner
    Re: 2021 Giro CQ Game
    « Reply #11 on: May 13, 2021, 00:51 »
    Stage 5  Scheldeprijs d'Italia

    We have done a better job of selecting sprinters than breakaway riders, but they are pricey.

    Points Teams
    EWAN Caleb      70      11
    NIZZOLO Giacomo      40      0
    VIVIANI Elia      25      4
    SAGAN Peter      15      8
    GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando      10      4
    MOSCHETTI Matteo      7      0
    PASQUALON Andrea      5      1
    GROENEWEGEN Dylan      3      23
    BELLETTI Manuel      2      1
    CIMOLAI Davide      1      2


    Purple points

    Nice to see some of our new managers at and near the top.

    Name Pointsriders
    1      Rufs      88   Ewan/Sagan/Groenewegen
    2=      Lecko/Northerner      80   Ewan/Gaviria
    4=      BikeRacer33/Bonimenier/Nyssinator/Otoxiep87/Yellow_Knight      73   Ewan/Groenewegen
    9=      BluesInTheBottle/ChrisDK/Del1962      70    Ewan
    12      Koronin      40   Viviani/Gaviria/Pasqualon
    13      Scrooll07      28   Viviani/Groenewegen
    14=      Kazistuta/Laarsland      25   Viviani
    16=      Sagan & Groenewegen teams      18   
    21=      ArchieBoy/Comodoro      15   
    23      Berflamand      10   
    24      Rote_Laterne      5   
    25      Salvarani      4   
    26      Groenewegen teams   3   
    35      Vladimir      1   
    36      Teams eschewing sprinters      0   
          Collective_Wisdom      3   

    Standings

    Name Total
    1      ZakaFan      148      0
    2      BicycleBoy      143      0
    3      BluesInTheBottle      141      2
    4      Rufs      140      7
    5      Otoxiep87      119      8
    6      Yellow_Knight      104      13
    7      Nyssinator      95      14
    8      BikeRacer33      94      14
    8      Bonimenier      94      14
    10      Lecko      91      25
    10      Northerner      91      25
    12      Berflamand      90      -9
    12      Koronin      90      0
    14      Scrooll07      88      -6
    15      Nathanptz      83      -9
    15      Tobydawq      83      -9
    17      Salvarani      81      -13
    18      ChrisDK      76      20
    18      Del1962      76      20
    20      ArchieBoy      75      -12
    21      AmisVelo      73      -11
    22      Kazistuta      70      -8
    23      Laarsland      65      -7
    24      Comodoro      55      -8
    25      Vladimir      43      -10
    26      Leadbelly      39      -8
    27      Bminchow      23      -3
    27      DevilsElbow      23      -3
    27      LosBrolin      23      -7
    27      Madrazo      23      -3
    27      Mellow_Velo      23      -3
    27      SafeBet      23      -3
    27      Shalgo      23      -3
    34      Rote_Laterne      22      -4
    35      Googolplex      18      -4
    35      Triley36      18      -4
    37      RedheadDane      15      -6
    37      Search      15      -6
    39      Armchair_Cyclist      10      -2
    40      Fivezzz      5      0
          Collective_Wisdom      23   


    Pink points

    Progress is mainly down to passing the unfortunate Landa, Sivakov and Dombrowski.

    change Popularity
    EWAN Caleb      85      11
    EVENEPOEL Remco      25      30
    VIVIANI Elia      25      4
    VLASOV Aleksandr      25      6
    BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley      15      27
    CARTHY Hugh      15      15
    GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando      13      4
    MOSCON Gianni      12      4
    YATES Simon      12      39
    CICCONE Giulio      10      4
    SAGAN Peter      10      8
    MERLIER Tim      -45      3
    SIVAKOV Pavel      -45      15
    LANDA MEANA Mikel      -90      7
    DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd      -362      1

    Name Gain/loss
    1      Nyssinator      173
    2      Lecko      172
    3      Otoxiep87      169
    4      Bonimenier      161
    5      Yellow_Knight      146
    6      Rufs      145
    7      Northerner      119
    8      Del1962      112
    9      Kazistuta      109
    10      BikeRacer33      107
    10      Scrooll07      107
    12      ChrisDK      98
    13      Mellow_Velo      92
    14      Fivezzz      89
    15      AmisVelo      87
    16      Tobydawq      85
    17      LosBrolin      82
    18      Leadbelly      77
    19      Armchair_Cyclist      76
    20      ArchieBoy      74
    21      Salvarani      69
    22      Bminchow      49
    22      SafeBet      49
    24      DevilsElbow      41
    25      Laarsland      35
    26      Comodoro      33
    27      Madrazo      30
    28      Nathanptz      26
    29      BicycleBoy      24
    29      RedheadDane      24
    31      Koronin      -4
    32      Berflamand      -7
    33      Search      -18
    34      Rote_Laterne      -19
    35      Googolplex      -29
    36      Vladimir      -32
    37      ZakaFan      -36
    38      Shalgo      -74
    39      Triley36      -85
    40      BluesInTheBottle      -230
          Collective_Wisdom      39


    Standings

    BitB's reign didn't last long, but he hasn't dropped as far as he had risen. Otoxiep, with every one of his riders in the black today, jumps straight back to the top.  (* = tiebreakers applied)

    Name Total position change
    1      Otoxiep87      895      7
    2*      SafeBet      853      0
    3*      Bminchow      853      0
    4*      Nyssinator      853      9
    5      Mellow_Velo      845      0
    6      Scrooll07      839      0
    7      Kazistuta      830      2
    8      Fivezzz      787      2
    9      Berflamand      780      -5
    10      AmisVelo      779      2
    11      Bonimenier      777      14
    12      DevilsElbow      771      -5
    13      LosBrolin      758      1
    14      Lecko      756      17
    15      Del1962      752      1
    16      Yellow_Knight      711      19
    17      Northerner      705      13
    18      BikeRacer33      700      10
    19      Armchair_Cyclist      693      5
    20      Tobydawq      688      6
    21      Rote_Laterne      679      -11
    22      BluesInTheBottle      674      -21
    23      Laarsland      672      -6
    24      Comodoro      667      -5
    25      Leadbelly      660      8
    26      BicycleBoy      656      -6
    27      Madrazo      652      -4
    28      ArchieBoy      640      6
    29      Nathanptz      626      -2
    29      Salvarani      626      7
    31      ChrisDK      618      7
    31      Search      618      -13
    33      Rufs      616      6
    34      ZakaFan      608      -19
    35      Vladimir      594      -13
    36      Googolplex      561      -7
    37      Shalgo      556      -16
    38      Koronin      537      -1
    39      Triley36      499      -8
    40      RedheadDane      257      0
          Collective_Wisdom      788   


    Logic would suggest that the non-GC riders occupying much of the current top ten will fall away tomorrow, and the riders that we have been investing in (barring the unfortunate Landa: that is a big chunk of budget gone for 7 teams) should start sharing the big points.  But this is cycling.

    Lest you have forgotten where to find it: the spreadsheet
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: May 13, 2021, 20:03 by Armchair Cyclist »

    Armchair Cyclist

    • Classics Winner
    • *
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 3267
    • Liked: 3446
    • Awards: 2020 Tour de France Prediction Champ2020 Worlds Prediction Champ2019 Spring Classics Prediction Champ2018 Tour de France CQ game winner
    Re: 2021 Giro CQ Game
    « Reply #12 on: May 13, 2021, 20:58 »
    Stage 6 Echelons on the plateau, and no Roglic to steal it.

    pointsteams
    MÄDER Gino      70      0
    BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley      40      27
    MARTIN Daniel      25      8
    EVENEPOEL Remco      15      30
    CICCONE Giulio      10      4
    CARUSO Damiano      7      0
    MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe      5      2
    SOLER GIMENEZ Marc      3      6
    CARTHY Hugh      2      15
    VLASOV Aleksandr      1      6

    Purple points
    Executive decision: top 10 or so each day in the minor classification should suffice, it is all in the spreadsheet if you want to find more.
    Name Points today Riders
    1      Kazistuta      90   Bernal/Martin/Evenepoel/Ciccone
    2      Fivezzz      82   Bernal/Martin/Evenepoel/Carthy
    3=      Lecko/Madrazo/Tobydawq      80   Bernal/Martin/Evenepoel
    6      Armchair_Cyclist      67   Bernal/Martin/Carthy
    7=      Berflamand/Comodoro/Rufs      65   Bernal/Martin
    10      Scrooll07      60   Bernal/Evenepoel/Soler/Carthy

    Standings
    Name Total change
    1      Rufs      205      3
    2      ZakaFan      188      -1
    3      BicycleBoy      183      -1
    4      Otoxiep87      176      1
    5      Lecko      171      5
    6      Tobydawq      163      9
    7      Kazistuta      160      15
    8      Berflamand      155      4
    9      Nyssinator      152      -2
    10      Bonimenier      151      -2

    Pink points

    Most of those expected to fall away did so, one (whom none of us had chosen) takes the lead and so suppresses everyone else's score.
    Rider points gained/lostteams
    BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley      223      27
    EVENEPOEL Remco      200      30
    MARTIN Daniel      105      8
    CICCONE Giulio      91      4
    CARTHY Hugh      67      15
    MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe      51      2
    VLASOV Aleksandr      51      6
    SOLER GIMENEZ Marc      49      6
    YATES Simon      39      39
    BUCHMANN Emanuel      32      31
    ALBANESE Vincenzo      -15      1
    BELLETTI Manuel      -15      1
    SIVAKOV Pavel      -15      15
    TAARAMÄE Rein      -24      2
    MOSCON Gianni      -28      4
    POZZOVIVO Domenico      -59      2
    DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd      -88      1


    With such huge gains for riders as popular as Bernal and Evenepoel, the scores today are very high.
    Point change
    1      Kazistuta      708
    2      Scrooll07      610
    3      Fivezzz      607
    4      Tobydawq      602
    5      Madrazo      582
    6      Comodoro      570
    7      Mellow_Velo      565
    8      Otoxiep87      563
    9      Bonimenier      561
    10      Berflamand      546
    11      Lecko      540
    12      Bminchow      538
    12      SafeBet      538
    14      Nyssinator      533
    15      Del1962      497
    15      Northerner      497
    17      Armchair_Cyclist      487
    18      Leadbelly      486
    19      Nathanptz      479
    20      LosBrolin      462
    21      ChrisDK      457
    22      AmisVelo      397
    23      DevilsElbow      374
    24      BikeRacer33      372
    25      BicycleBoy      370
    26      Vladimir      369
    27      Salvarani      360
    28      Search      359
    29      Googolplex      345
    30      ArchieBoy      341
    31      Rufs      339
    32      Shalgo      323
    33      Rote_Laterne      306
    34      Yellow_Knight      289
    35      Koronin      288
    36      Triley36      285
    37      ZakaFan      258
    38      Laarsland      174
    39      RedheadDane      110
    40      BluesInTheBottle      97
          Collective_Wisdom      554

    Standings

    The top 17 (and three others) have both Bernal and Evenepoel.
    Name Tabulate position change on day
    1      Kazistuta      1538      6
    2      Otoxiep87      1458      -1
    3      Scrooll07      1449      3
    4      Mellow_Velo      1410      1
    5      Fivezzz      1394      3
    6      SafeBet      1391      -4
    7      Bminchow      1391      -4
    8      Nyssinator      1386      -4
    9      Bonimenier      1338      2
    10      Berflamand      1326      -1
    11      Lecko      1296      3
    12      Tobydawq      1290      8
    13      Del1962      1249      2
    14      Comodoro      1237      10
    15      Madrazo      1234      12
    16      LosBrolin      1220      -3
    17      Northerner      1202      0
    18      Armchair_Cyclist      1180      1
    19      AmisVelo      1176      -9
    20      Leadbelly      1146      5
    21      DevilsElbow      1145      -9
    22      Nathanptz      1105      7
    23      ChrisDK      1075      8
    24      BikeRacer33      1072      -6
    25      BicycleBoy      1026      1
    26      Yellow_Knight      1000      -10
    27      Salvarani      986      2
    28      Rote_Laterne      985      -7
    29      ArchieBoy      981      -1
    30      Search      977      1
    31      Vladimir      963      4
    32      Rufs      955      1
    33      Googolplex      906      3
    34      Shalgo      879      3
    35      ZakaFan      866      -1
    36      Laarsland      846      -13
    37      Koronin      825      1
    38      Triley36      784      1
    39      BluesInTheBottle      771      -17
    40      RedheadDane      367      0
          Collective_Wisdom      1342   

    An uneventful sprint stage tomorrow.  Perhaps.
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: May 13, 2021, 23:44 by Armchair Cyclist »

    Armchair Cyclist

    • Classics Winner
    • *
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 3267
    • Liked: 3446
    • Awards: 2020 Tour de France Prediction Champ2020 Worlds Prediction Champ2019 Spring Classics Prediction Champ2018 Tour de France CQ game winner
    Re: 2021 Giro CQ Game
    « Reply #13 on: May 15, 2021, 02:12 »
    Stage 7 An untypical sprint after a very typical sprint stage with a typical sprint result

    EWAN Caleb 70 11
    CIMOLAI Davide      40      2
    MERLIER Tim      25      3
    MOSCHETTI Matteo      15      0
    PASQUALON Andrea      10      1
    GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando      7      4
    GROENEWEGEN Dylan      5      23
    KANTER Max      3      0
    FIORELLI Filippo      2      0
    MOLANO BENAVIDES Juan Sebastian      1      0


    Purple points

    Name Tabulate
    1=      Lecko/Northerner/      77   Ewan & Gaviria
    3      BikeRacer33/Bonimenier/Nyssinator/Otoxiep87/Rufs/Yellow_Knight      75   Ewan & Groenewegen
    9=      BluesInTheBottle/ChrisDK/Del1962      70   

    Standings

    Stage pts Change
    1      Rufs      280      0
    2      Otoxiep87      251      2
    3      Lecko      248      2
    4      Nyssinator      227      5
    5      Bonimenier      226      5
    6      Northerner      223      6
    7      ZakaFan      218      -5
    8      BluesInTheBottle      216      4
    9      BicycleBoy      213      -6
    10=      ChrisDK      201      5
    10=      Del1962      201      5


    Pink points

    Very little other than the sprinters today, and associated maglia ciclamino points, except for unfortunate Pozzovivo.

    EWAN Caleb 125 11
    CIMOLAI Davide      45      2
    MERLIER Tim      40      3
    MOSCHETTI Matteo      18      0
    VALTER Attila      18      0
    PASQUALON Andrea      10      1
    GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando      9      4
    GROENEWEGEN Dylan      5      23
    POZZOVIVO Domenico      -15      2
    VIVIANI Elia      -25      4


    pts gained/lost
    1      Yellow_Knight      134
    2      Northerner      133
    3      BikeRacer33      130
    4      Bonimenier      129
    4      Nyssinator      129
    4      Otoxiep87      129
    7      ChrisDK      128
    7      Del1962      128
    9      Rufs      126
    10      BluesInTheBottle      125
    11      Lecko      118
    12      Salvarani      54
    13      Berflamand      48
    14      Vladimir      44
    15      BicycleBoy      41
    16      ZakaFan      40
    17      Leadbelly      8
    17      Madrazo      8
    17      Mellow_Velo      8
    17      RedheadDane      8
    17      Triley36      8
    22      DevilsElbow      5
    22      Shalgo      5
    24      Bminchow      4
    24      Googolplex      4
    24      Rote_Laterne      4
    24      SafeBet      4
    28      LosBrolin      3
    29      AmisVelo      2
    29      Armchair_Cyclist      2
    31      Nathanptz      1
    32      Tobydawq      0
    33      Search      -1
    34      ArchieBoy      -4
    34      Comodoro      -4
    36      Koronin      -6
    37      Fivezzz      -16
    38      Scrooll07      -21
    39      Laarsland      -25
    40      Kazistuta      -26
          Collective_Wisdom      4

    Standings

    Otoxiep took the lead after stage 2, lost it on stage 4, regained it on 5, lost it again on stage 6, and now has a third stint in the lead.  How many more?

    position change
    1      Otoxiep87      1587      1
    2      Nyssinator      1515      6
    3      Kazistuta      1512      -2
    4      Bonimenier      1467      5
    5      Scrooll07      1428      -2
    6      Mellow_Velo      1418      -2
    7      Lecko      1414      4
    8      SafeBet      1395      -2
    9      Bminchow      1395      -2
    10      Fivezzz      1378      -5
    11      Del1962      1377      2
    12      Berflamand      1374      -2
    13      Northerner      1335      4
    14      Tobydawq      1290      -2
    15      Madrazo      1242      0
    16      Comodoro      1233      -2
    17      LosBrolin      1223      -1
    18      ChrisDK      1203      5
    19      BikeRacer33      1202      5
    20      Armchair_Cyclist      1182      -2
    21      AmisVelo      1178      -2
    22      Leadbelly      1154      -2
    23      DevilsElbow      1150      -2
    24      Yellow_Knight      1134      2
    25      Nathanptz      1106      -3
    26      Rufs      1081      6
    27      BicycleBoy      1067      -2
    28      Salvarani      1040      -1
    29      Vladimir      1007      2
    30      Rote_Laterne      989      -2
    31      ArchieBoy      977      -2
    32      Search      976      -2
    33      Googolplex      910      0
    34      ZakaFan      906      1
    35      BluesInTheBottle      896      4
    36      Shalgo      884      -2
    37      Laarsland      821      -1
    38      Koronin      819      -1
    39      Triley36      792      -1
    40      RedheadDane      375      0
          Collective_Wisdom      1346   

    Tomorrow looks like a day when no-one can win the CQ game, but some could lose it.
  • ReplyReply

  • Armchair Cyclist

    • Classics Winner
    • *
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 3267
    • Liked: 3446
    • Awards: 2020 Tour de France Prediction Champ2020 Worlds Prediction Champ2019 Spring Classics Prediction Champ2018 Tour de France CQ game winner
    Re: 2021 Giro CQ Game
    « Reply #14 on: May 15, 2021, 17:35 »
    Stage 8   The first hour was far more entertaining than the following three.

    LAFAY Victor 70 0
    GAVAZZI Francesco      40      0
    ARNDT Nikias      25      0
    OLIVEIRA Nelson Filipe Santos Simoes      15      0
    CARBONI Giovanni      10      0
    GOOSSENS Kobe      7      0
    CAMPENAERTS Victor      5      0
    GOUGEARD Alexis      3      0
    GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando      2      4
    ALMEIDA Joao Pedro Gonçalves      1      4

    Purple points
    2 points each for Berflamand, Koronin, Lecko and Northerner (Gaviria)
    1 point each for Leadbelly, Los Brolin, Redhead Dane and Salvarani (Almeida) No-one had both of them, or anyone else in the top ten

    Of them, only Berflamand, Koronin and Leadbelly move up in the purple standings, to 13th, 20th and 24th respectively.

    Pink points

    GC lower top ten overtaking Vervaeke and Ewan falling from the ciclamino classification are the main matters relevant today.

    pts gained/lost teams
    MERLIER Tim      30      3
    CARTHY Hugh      25      15
    CICCONE Giulio      25      4
    MARTIN Daniel      15      8
    YATES Simon      15      39
    VIVIANI Elia      10      4
    ALBANESE Vincenzo      -15      1
    TAARAMÄE Rein      -20      2
    EWAN Caleb      -85      11

    Ewan's teams in the red.  Which might be good if this were La Vuelta.

    Gained/lost
                
    1      Berflamand      72
    2      Kazistuta      69
    3      BicycleBoy      67
    4      Armchair_Cyclist      59
    4      Fivezzz      59
    6      Scrooll07      55
    7      AmisVelo      50
    7      Laarsland      50
    9      ArchieBoy      49
    10      Comodoro      47
    10      DevilsElbow      47
    10      Shalgo      47
    10      ZakaFan      47
    14      Search      46
    15      Mellow_Velo      39
    16      Tobydawq      38
    17      Madrazo      35
    18      Salvarani      30
    19      Koronin      29
    20      Leadbelly      27
    21      Vladimir      24
    22      Nathanptz      23
    23      Bminchow      20
    23      Googolplex      20
    23      SafeBet      20
    23      Triley36      20
    27      LosBrolin      6
    28      RedheadDane      1
    29      Rote_Laterne      0
    30      Nyssinator      -36
    31      BikeRacer33      -38
    32      BluesInTheBottle      -39
    33      Bonimenier      -40
    34      Otoxiep87      -46
    35      Lecko      -47
    36      Rufs      -49
    37      Yellow_Knight      -59
    38      Northerner      -62
    39      Del1962      -66
    40      ChrisDK      -72
          Collective_Wisdom      45


    Standings
    Otoxiep seems to find the leader's jersey itchy: takes it off pretty soon each time he claims it.  Advantage passes back to Kazistuta, as the top placed without Ewan this morning.

    position change
    1      Kazistuta      1581      2
    2      Otoxiep87      1541      -1
    3      Scrooll07      1483      2
    4      Nyssinator      1479      -2
    5      Mellow_Velo      1457      1
    6      Berflamand      1446      6
    7      Fivezzz      1437      3
    8      Bonimenier      1427      -4
    9      SafeBet      1415      -1
    10      Bminchow      1415      -1
    11      Lecko      1367      -4
    12      Tobydawq      1328      2
    13      Del1962      1311      -2
    14      Comodoro      1280      2
    15      Madrazo      1277      0
    16      Northerner      1273      -3
    17      Armchair_Cyclist      1241      3
    18      LosBrolin      1229      -1
    19      AmisVelo      1228      2
    20      DevilsElbow      1197      3
    21      Leadbelly      1181      1
    22      BikeRacer33      1164      -3
    23      BicycleBoy      1134      4
    24      ChrisDK      1131      -6
    25      Nathanptz      1129      0
    26      Yellow_Knight      1075      -2
    27      Salvarani      1070      1
    28      Rufs      1032      -2
    29      Vladimir      1031      0
    30      ArchieBoy      1026      1
    31      Search      1022      1
    32      Rote_Laterne      989      -2
    33      ZakaFan      953      1
    34      Shalgo      931      2
    35      Googolplex      930      -2
    36      Laarsland      871      1
    37      BluesInTheBottle      857      -2
    38      Koronin      848      0
    39      Triley36      812      0
    40      RedheadDane      376      0
          Collective_Wisdom      1391   

    The first higher mountains tomorrow; that usually changes things a bit.  But which of Bernal and Evenepoel prevails seems  a redundant question when so many at the top of the game have them both.
  • ReplyReply

  • Armchair Cyclist

    • Classics Winner
    • *
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 3267
    • Liked: 3446
    • Awards: 2020 Tour de France Prediction Champ2020 Worlds Prediction Champ2019 Spring Classics Prediction Champ2018 Tour de France CQ game winner
    Re: 2021 Giro CQ Game
    « Reply #15 on: May 16, 2021, 18:47 »
    Stage 9 Egan Felice

    pts teams
    BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley      70      27
    CICCONE Giulio      40      4
    VLASOV Aleksandr      25      6
    EVENEPOEL Remco      15      30
    MARTIN Daniel      10      8
    CARUSO Damiano      7      0
    BARDET Romain      5      6
    SOLER GIMENEZ Marc      3      6
    MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe      2      2
    ALMEIDA Joao Pedro Gonçalves      1      4

    Purple points

    That's more like it: the popularity of Bernal and Evenepoel mean we get much bigger scores in this category than previously.  But having Ciccone as well is what makes for a special score.

    1      Kazistuta      140Bernal/Ciccone/Evenepoel/Martin/Bardet
    2=      Berflamand/Comodoro      125 Bernal/Ciccone/Evenepoel
    4=      Bminchow/SafeBet      110 Bernal/Vlasov/Evenepoel
    6=      Fivezzz/Googolplex/Lecko/Madrazo/Rote_Laterne/Tobydawq      95Bernal/Evenepoel/Martin

    Standings
    Although most of the white jersey guys in the real GC have fallen away, we have rookie competitors in 1st, 2nd ,5th and 7th here.
    1      Rufs      360      0
    2      Lecko      345      1
    3      Otoxiep87      336      -1
    4      Northerner      315      2
    5      Berflamand      314      8
    6      Nyssinator      312      -2
    7      Bonimenier      311      -2
    8      Kazistuta      300      8
    9      ZakaFan      288      -2
    10      ChrisDK      286      0
    10      Del1962      286      0

    Pink points
    For the first time in this edition, points for leading the GC enter into the game.  Along with a huge yield of other points, for most teams at least.

    change teams
    BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley      313      27
    CICCONE Giulio      125      4
    VLASOV Aleksandr      75      6
    EVENEPOEL Remco      16      30
    FORMOLO Davide      15      12
    BARDET Romain      13      6
    SOLER GIMENEZ Marc      11      6
    MARTIN Daniel      10      8
    MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe      10      2
    CHAMPOUSSIN Clément      -15      1
    MOHORIC Matej      -22      1
    CARTHY Hugh      -25      15

    Evenepoel is leap-frogged, so his high position on the day brings no new GC projection points, though he is still bringing lots of points to the teams who have him.  Meanwhile Bernal brings a lot more points than he did yesterday, including the race leader bonus points, which feature in the game scoring for the first time in this edition.

    Gain/loss
    1      Kazistuta      477
    2      Berflamand      469
    3      Comodoro      454
    4      Bminchow      419
    4      SafeBet      419
    6      Googolplex      388
    7      Rote_Laterne      383
    8      Vladimir      352
    9      Northerner      342
    10      Madrazo      341
    11      Del1962      340
    12      Lecko      339
    13      Leadbelly      338
    14      LosBrolin      333
    15      Tobydawq      330
    15      Triley36      330
    17      Nathanptz      329
    18      Mellow_Velo      328
    19      Rufs      327
    20      ChrisDK      325
    21      Otoxiep87      319
    21      ZakaFan      319
    23      Scrooll07      315
    24      Fivezzz      314
    25      Nyssinator      308
    26      Bonimenier      304
    27      Armchair_Cyclist      300
    28      Laarsland      215
    29      DevilsElbow      66
    30      Salvarani      44
    31      Koronin      27
    32      BicycleBoy      26
    33      AmisVelo      16
    34      BikeRacer33      2
    35      RedheadDane      -2
    36      Search      -5
    37      BluesInTheBottle      -10
    38      Yellow_Knight      -14
    39      ArchieBoy      -18
    40      Shalgo      -24
          Collective_Wisdom      319

    Shalgo becomes the first to suffer the loss of a third team member, with Champoussin's DNF.

    Standings

    Kazistuta was already in the lead, and with 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th today he is beginning to look more comfortable in that spot.

    Total change
    1      Kazistuta      2058      0
    2      Berflamand      1915      4
    3      Otoxiep87      1860      -1
    4      SafeBet      1834      5
    5      Bminchow      1834      5
    6      Scrooll07      1798      -3
    7      Nyssinator      1787      -3
    8      Mellow_Velo      1785      -3
    9      Fivezzz      1751      -2
    10      Comodoro      1734      4
    11      Bonimenier      1731      -3
    12      Lecko      1706      -1
    13      Tobydawq      1658      -1
    14      Del1962      1651      -1
    15      Madrazo      1618      0
    16      Northerner      1615      0
    17      LosBrolin      1562      1
    18      Armchair_Cyclist      1541      -1
    19      Leadbelly      1519      2
    20      Nathanptz      1458      5
    21      ChrisDK      1456      3
    22      Vladimir      1383      7
    23      Rote_Laterne      1372      9
    24      Rufs      1359      4
    25      Googolplex      1318      10
    26      ZakaFan      1272      7
    27      DevilsElbow      1263      -7
    28      AmisVelo      1244      -9
    29      BikeRacer33      1166      -7
    30      BicycleBoy      1160      -7
    31      Triley36      1142      8
    32      Salvarani      1114      -5
    33      Laarsland      1086      3
    34      Yellow_Knight      1061      -8
    35      Search      1017      -4
    36      ArchieBoy      1008      -6
    37      Shalgo      907      -3
    38      Koronin      875      0
    39      BluesInTheBottle      847      -2
    40      RedheadDane      374      0
          Collective_Wisdom      1710   
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: May 17, 2021, 08:17 by Armchair Cyclist »

    Armchair Cyclist

    • Classics Winner
    • *
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 3267
    • Liked: 3446
    • Awards: 2020 Tour de France Prediction Champ2020 Worlds Prediction Champ2019 Spring Classics Prediction Champ2018 Tour de France CQ game winner
    Re: 2021 Giro CQ Game
    « Reply #16 on: May 18, 2021, 00:24 »
    Stage 10 Bora finally get rid of enough sprinters

    Points Teams
    SAGAN Peter      70      8
    GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando      40      4
    CIMOLAI Davide      25      2
    OLDANI Stefano      15      0
    VERMEERSCH Gianni      10      0
    DE BONDT Dries      7      0
    VENDRAME Andrea      5      0
    ALBANESE Vincenzo      3      1
    VIVIANI Elia      2      4
    MOLANO BENAVIDES Juan Sebastian      1      0

    Purple points

    Only Koronin had more than one of these (Gaviria and Viviani), so joint 1st if you have Sagan, Joint 10th if you have Gaviria but not Viviani, etc.

    Standings
    Rufs, Zaka, Toby and Comodoro all have Sagan: Lecko, Northerner and Berflamand have Gaviria.
    1      Rufs      430      0
    2      Lecko      385      0
    3      ZakaFan      358      6
    4      Northerner      355      0
    5      Berflamand      354      0
    6      Otoxiep87      336      -3
    7      Tobydawq      333      5
    8      Comodoro      315      5
    9      Nyssinator      312      -3
    10      Bonimenier      311      -3

    Pink points
    No change in GC (although in what way most of the field claim they were delayed by Kanter I have no idea), so it is essentially stage points, Bernal's jersey bonus, and changes in the sprint jersey classification.

    SAGAN Peter      130      8
    GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando      73      4
    CIMOLAI Davide      35      2
    BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley      18      27
    ALBANESE Vincenzo      3      1
    VIVIANI Elia      -13      4
    MERLIER Tim      -55      3
    And this time we have every rider that has been selected whose score changed today.

    1      Comodoro      148
    1      Nathanptz      148
    1      Rufs      148
    1      Tobydawq      148
    5      AmisVelo      130
    5      ArchieBoy      130
    7      ZakaFan      93
    8      Lecko      91
    8      Northerner      91
    10      BicycleBoy      75
    11      Koronin      60
    12      Vladimir      53
    13      Berflamand      36
    14      Salvarani      35
    15      Armchair_Cyclist      18
    15      Bminchow      18
    15      Bonimenier      18
    15      ChrisDK      18
    15      Del1962      18
    15      Fivezzz      18
    15      Googolplex      18
    15      Leadbelly      18
    15      LosBrolin      18
    15      Madrazo      18
    15      Mellow_Velo      18
    15      Nyssinator      18
    15      Otoxiep87      18
    15      Rote_Laterne      18
    15      SafeBet      18
    15      Triley36      18
    31      Kazistuta      5
    31      Scrooll07      5
    33      Yellow_Knight      3
    34      BikeRacer33      0
    34      BluesInTheBottle      0
    34      DevilsElbow      0
    34      RedheadDane      0
    34      Search      0
    34      Shalgo      0
    40      Laarsland      -13
          Collective_Wisdom      18

    Standings
    A couple of big jumps, considering it was a low key day, into the top ten for Toby and onto the podium for Comodoro.

    Total change
    1      Kazistuta      2063      0
    2      Berflamand      1951      0
    3      Comodoro      1882      7
    4      Otoxiep87      1878      -1
    5      SafeBet      1852      -1
    6      Bminchow      1852      -1
    7      Tobydawq      1806      6
    8      Nyssinator      1805      -1
    9      Mellow_Velo      1803      -1
    9      Scrooll07      1803      -3
    11      Lecko      1797      1
    12      Fivezzz      1769      -3
    13      Bonimenier      1749      -2
    14      Northerner      1706      2
    15      Del1962      1669      -1
    16      Madrazo      1636      -1
    17      Nathanptz      1606      3
    18      LosBrolin      1580      -1
    19      Armchair_Cyclist      1559      -1
    20      Leadbelly      1537      -1
    21      Rufs      1507      3
    22      ChrisDK      1474      -1
    23      Vladimir      1436      -1
    24      Rote_Laterne      1390      -1
    25      AmisVelo      1374      3
    26      ZakaFan      1365      0
    27      Googolplex      1336      -2
    28      DevilsElbow      1263      -1
    29      BicycleBoy      1235      1
    30      BikeRacer33      1166      -1
    31      Triley36      1160      0
    32      Salvarani      1149      0
    33      ArchieBoy      1138      3
    34      Laarsland      1073      -1
    35      Yellow_Knight      1064      -1
    36      Search      1017      -1
    37      Koronin      935      1
    38      Shalgo      907      -1
    39      BluesInTheBottle      847      0
    40      RedheadDane      374      0
          Collective_Wisdom      1728   

    Rest day:phew.
  • ReplyReply

  • Armchair Cyclist

    • Classics Winner
    • *
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 3267
    • Liked: 3446
    • Awards: 2020 Tour de France Prediction Champ2020 Worlds Prediction Champ2019 Spring Classics Prediction Champ2018 Tour de France CQ game winner
    Re: 2021 Giro CQ Game
    « Reply #17 on: May 18, 2021, 22:43 »
    Rest Day 1 10 stages down

    Quick review

    Purple points
    Riders with a stage podium or equivalent picked up by multiple lower placings.  These points cannot be lost (which is just as well for the teams that have Ewan, Dombrowski and, as of tomorrow, Merlier).

    Stage pts Teams Price
    EWAN Caleb      141      11      638
    SAGAN Peter      120      8      864
    BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley      110      27      711
    CIMOLAI Davide      108      2      64
    MERLIER Tim      95      3      633
    NIZZOLO Giacomo      80      0      780
    DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd      70      1      44
    GANNA Filippo      70      0      797
    LAFAY Victor      70      0      118
    MÄDER Gino      70      0      271
    VAN DER HOORN Taco      70      0      96
    VIVIANI Elia      67      4      278
    GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando      64      4      241
    CICCONE Giulio      50      4      306
    AFFINI Edoardo      40      0      100
    DE MARCHI Alessandro      40      0      252
    GAVAZZI Francesco      40      0      13
    EVENEPOEL Remco      35      30      474
    MARTIN Daniel      35      8      547
    FIORELLI Filippo      32      0      178
    MOSCHETTI Matteo      29      0      131
    VLASOV Aleksandr      26      6      1085
    ARNDT Nikias      25      0      50
    FOSS Tobias Svendsen      25      1      155

    Unlike in the maglia ciclamino category, all stages yield the same CQ points: hence Bernal is 3rd here, but 11th in the jersey race.  Two seconds > a win in CQ points, but that is little consolation to Nizzolo.

    Cimolai representing very good value, and Dombrowski and Gavazzi also giving a high return on investment.

    1      Rufs      430   Ewan/Sagan/Bernal/Martin
    2      Lecko      385   Ewan/Bernal/Gaviria/Evenepoel/Martin
    3      ZakaFan      358   Sagan/Bernal/Merlier
    4      Northerner      355   Ewan/Bernal/Gaviria/Evenepoel
    5      Berflamand      354   Bernal/Merlier/Gaviria/Ciccone/Evenepoel
    6      Otoxiep87      336   Ewan/Bernal/Evenepoel/Foss
    7      Tobydawq      333   Sagan/Bernal/Evenepoel/Martin
    8      Comodoro      315   Sagan/Bernal/Ciccone/Evenepoel
    9      Nyssinator      312   Ewan/Bernal/Evenepoel
    10      Bonimenier      311   Ewan/Bernal/Evenepoel
    11      BicycleBoy      308   
    12      Kazistuta      302   
    13      Nathanptz      298   
    14      ChrisDK      286   
    14      Del1962      286   
    16      Scrooll07      243   
    17      Vladimir      229   
    18      BluesInTheBottle      219   
    19      Yellow_Knight      214   
    20      BikeRacer33      207   
    21      Madrazo      203   
    22      Salvarani      195   
    23      Bminchow      194   
    23      SafeBet      194   
    25      AmisVelo      187   
    25      Koronin      187   
    27      Leadbelly      186   
    28      Fivezzz      182   
    29      ArchieBoy      177   
    30      Mellow_Velo      175   
    31      LosBrolin      165   
    32      Rote_Laterne      163   
    33      Googolplex      159   
    34      Armchair_Cyclist      157   
    35      Laarsland      143   
    36      Triley36      133   
    37      DevilsElbow      86   
    38      Shalgo      60   
    39      Search      52   
    40      RedheadDane      23   
          Collective_Wisdom      170   


    Pink points

    I was going to do those over 100 points, but thought I may as well include the very popular Buchmann.

    Pts Teams Price
    BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley      686      27      711
    EVENEPOEL Remco      411      30      474
    VLASOV Aleksandr      341      6      1085
    CICCONE Giulio      325      4      306
    VALTER Attila      301      0      265
    CARTHY Hugh      217      15      756
    SAGAN Peter      205      8      864
    CARUSO Damiano      204      0      507
    MARTIN Daniel      200      8      547
    YATES Simon      150      39      557
    CIMOLAI Davide      148      2      64
    EWAN Caleb      141      11      638
    GANNA Filippo      139      0      797
    FORMOLO Davide      135      12      164
    MÄDER Gino      127      0      271
    MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe      127      2      494
    MERLIER Tim      125      3      633
    GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando      119      4      241
    SOLER GIMENEZ Marc      118      6      553
    VERVAEKE Louis      111      0      58
    BARDET Romain      109      6      375
    NIZZOLO Giacomo      102      0      780
    FOSS Tobias Svendsen      99      1      155
    VIVIANI Elia      92      4      278
    DE MARCHI Alessandro      91      0      252
    BUCHMANN Emanuel      90      31      157
    Other than the already mentioned Cimolai, Vervaeke and Valter, should they be able to hang on to something like their current positions, appear to be the bargains we all overlooked.


    Bernal, Evenepoel, Yates aare in all of the top 10 teams, so is Buchmann unless there is an asterisk .   The other main (90pt+) contributors to the top teams are:

    1      Kazistuta      2063   Ciccone/Martin/Bardet/Viviani
    2      Berflamand      1951   CicconeFormolo//Merlier/Gaviria*
    3      Comodoro      1882   Ciccone/Sagan
    4      Otoxiep87      1878   Carthy/Ewan/Formolo/Foss*
    5      SafeBet      1852   Vlasov/Formolo
    6      Bminchow      1852   Vlasov/Formolo
    7      Tobydawq      1806   Sagan/Martin
    8      Nyssinator      1805   Carthy/Ewan
    9      Mellow_Velo      1803   Carthy/Formolo/Bardet *
    9      Scrooll07      1803   Carthy/Soler
    11      Lecko      1797   
    12      Fivezzz      1769   
    13      Bonimenier      1749   
    14      Northerner      1706   
    15      Del1962      1669   
    16      Madrazo      1636   
    17      Nathanptz      1606   
    18      LosBrolin      1580   
    19      Armchair_Cyclist      1559   
    20      Leadbelly      1537   
    21      Rufs      1507   
    22      ChrisDK      1474   
    23      Vladimir      1436   
    24      Rote_Laterne      1390   
    25      AmisVelo      1374   
    26      ZakaFan      1365   
    27      Googolplex      1336   
    28      DevilsElbow      1263   
    29      BicycleBoy      1235   
    30      BikeRacer33      1166   
    31      Triley36      1160   
    32      Salvarani      1149   
    33      ArchieBoy      1138   
    34      Laarsland      1073   
    35      Yellow_Knight      1064   
    36      Search      1017   
    37      Koronin      935   
    38      Shalgo      907   
    39      BluesInTheBottle      847   
    40      RedheadDane      374   
          Collective_Wisdom      1728   

    Kazistuta has no-one on the team scoring less than Buchmann: a team with no disappointments is very rare in these games.

    You have to go down as far as 19th to find a team that does not have both Bernal and Evenepoel.

    The top three all have Ciccone: the only other team to include him is Laarsland's, but that was selected to a 3000 point budget due to not readingthe rules carefully, and has neither of the top two riders.

    Rubio, with 28 points for 38th on GC, keeps SafeBet ahead of Bminchow (Dekker, one of 85 riders on the minimum 15 points for those still riding) for 5th; Having Formolo rather than Soler as 5th highest scorer is all that keeps Mellow Velo ahead of Scrooll07 (well, that and alphabetical order).

    And despite 4 defeats out of the 4 times I have logged inter-forum averages, CN have taken the lead here (CN 1465: VR 1450)

    Any other numbers you may want to scrutinise while waiting for tomorrow's stage to get as ruthless as we are all hoping are on Google Drive.
  • ReplyReply

  • Armchair Cyclist

    • Classics Winner
    • *
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 3267
    • Liked: 3446
    • Awards: 2020 Tour de France Prediction Champ2020 Worlds Prediction Champ2019 Spring Classics Prediction Champ2018 Tour de France CQ game winner
    Re: 2021 Giro CQ Game
    « Reply #18 on: May 19, 2021, 21:16 »
    Stage 11  Strade bianche are bad news for the maglia bianca

    Purple points
    Three teams each get 25 points for Vanhoucke getting third:
    Archie Boy moves up 7 places to 22nd;
    ChrisDK rises 3 to 11th;
    Bonimenier gets a 4 spot jump to 6th.

    That's it.

    Pink points
    Rather more change here.

    The first 2 lines here would suggest that 3/4 of the teams get a 215 point boost to their scores: what follows rather undermines that cheer for most of them.
    change teams
    BUCHMANN Emanuel      125      31
    YATES Simon      90      39
    FOSS Tobias Svendsen      76      1
    VLASOV Aleksandr      60      6
    CARTHY Hugh      50      15
    VANHOUCKE Harm      25      3
    ALMEIDA Joao Pedro Gonçalves      20      4
    MOSCON Gianni      20      4
    BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley      18      27
    MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe      15      2
    MASNADA Fausto      -10      4
    MERLIER Tim      -30      3
    FORMOLO Davide      -65      12
    MARTIN Daniel      -91      8
    CICCONE Giulio      -100      4
    EVENEPOEL Remco      -185      30


    So a big range between the losers and winners on a stage like this, to the extent that most of what follows might just be fine tuning:

    Points today
    1      Rote_Laterne      299
    2      Googolplex      293
    3      BluesInTheBottle      277
    4      Vladimir      184
    5      Triley36      168
    6      RedheadDane      157
    7      DevilsElbow      140
    8      Bonimenier      123
    9      Nyssinator      118
    10      Armchair_Cyclist      117
    11      Scrooll07      111
    12      ArchieBoy      105
    13      LosBrolin      94
    14      BikeRacer33      88
    14      Leadbelly      88
    14      Search      88
    17      Shalgo      80
    18      Salvarani      73
    19      Northerner      56
    20      Nathanptz      48
    21      Bminchow      43
    21      SafeBet      43
    23      Rufs      37
    24      AmisVelo      30
    25      ZakaFan      13
    26      Fivezzz      7
    27      Laarsland      -10
    28      Otoxiep87      -16
    29      Del1962      -27
    30      Lecko      -43
    30      Madrazo      -43
    30      Tobydawq      -43
    33      Yellow_Knight      -45
    34      Comodoro      -52
    35      ChrisDK      -62
    36      Koronin      -82
    37      BicycleBoy      -91
    38      Mellow_Velo      -94
    39      Kazistuta      -130
    40      Berflamand      -272
          Collective_Wisdom      33



    Standings

    Despite having the second worst score of the day, and the triple whammy of Evenepoel, Ciccone and Martin, Kazistuta hangs on to a (greatly reduced) lead.  But Evenepoel and Ciccone are no longer the best pairing to have alongside Bernal, and the Ciccone party on the podium is well and truly broken up.  Carthy is a member of all teams ranked 2 to 7.

    Pts up/down
    1      Kazistuta      1933      0
    2      Nyssinator      1923      6
    3      Scrooll07      1914      6
    4      SafeBet      1895      1
    5      Bminchow      1895      1
    6      Bonimenier      1872      7
    7      Otoxiep87      1862      -3
    8      Comodoro      1830      -5
    9      Fivezzz      1776      3
    10      Tobydawq      1763      -3
    11      Northerner      1762      3
    12      Lecko      1754      -1
    13      Mellow_Velo      1709      -4
    14      Rote_Laterne      1689      10
    15      Berflamand      1679      -13
    16      Armchair_Cyclist      1676      3
    17      LosBrolin      1674      1
    18      Nathanptz      1654      -1
    19      Del1962      1642      -4
    20      Googolplex      1629      7
    21      Leadbelly      1625      -1
    22      Vladimir      1620      1
    23      Madrazo      1593      -7
    24      Rufs      1544      -3
    25      ChrisDK      1412      -3
    26      AmisVelo      1404      -1
    27      DevilsElbow      1403      1
    28      ZakaFan      1378      -2
    29      Triley36      1328      2
    30      BikeRacer33      1254      0
    31      ArchieBoy      1243      2
    32      Salvarani      1222      0
    33      BicycleBoy      1144      -4
    34      BluesInTheBottle      1124      5
    35      Search      1105      1
    36      Laarsland      1063      -2
    37      Yellow_Knight      1019      -2
    38      Shalgo      987      0
    39      Koronin      853      -2
    40      RedheadDane      531      0
          Collective_Wisdom      1761   


    Cycling News's lead in the inter-forum battle didn't last long: VeloRooms are back in front, but it is close (1509-1504)

    Will some of the riders/teams that lost ground today be able to make amends?  Will they start to do so tomorrow?  Don't ask me, my predictions are useless.
  • ReplyReply

  • Armchair Cyclist

    • Classics Winner
    • *
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 3267
    • Liked: 3446
    • Awards: 2020 Tour de France Prediction Champ2020 Worlds Prediction Champ2019 Spring Classics Prediction Champ2018 Tour de France CQ game winner
    Re: 2021 Giro CQ Game
    « Reply #19 on: May 21, 2021, 00:46 »
    Stage 12 Recovery from yesterday

    Purple points
    After a rather odd relegation, it is 25 rather than 15 points from George Bennett for Blues in the Bottle (up 2 places to 16th) and Redhead Dane (no change: still last).

    Pink points

    Very little happening, and that is more due to DNFs than finishing time.

    BENNETT George      33      2
    BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley      18      27
    BARDET Romain      8      6
    MASNADA Fausto      -46      4
    SOLER GIMENEZ Marc      -120      6

    1      LosBrolin      38
    2      Kazistuta      31
    3      Leadbelly      30
    4      Northerner      27
    4      Rufs      27
    6      Rote_Laterne      25
    7      Nyssinator      24
    8      Berflamand      23
    8      Bminchow      23
    8      Fivezzz      23
    8      Lecko      23
    8      SafeBet      23
    13      Otoxiep87      22
    13      Tobydawq      22
    15      ZakaFan      21
    16      Comodoro      19
    17      Bonimenier      18
    17      Googolplex      18
    17      Nathanptz      18
    20      Madrazo      16
    21      Triley36      15
    22      Salvarani      14
    23      Search      9
    24      Laarsland      5
    25      AmisVelo      4
    25      BicycleBoy      4
    27      ArchieBoy      1
    27      DevilsElbow      1
    29      Shalgo      0
    30      Yellow_Knight      -4
    31      Mellow_Velo      -16
    32      Armchair_Cyclist      -20
    33      Del1962      -23
    34      ChrisDK      -27
    35      RedheadDane      -81
    36      BluesInTheBottle      -87
    37      Vladimir      -90
    38      Scrooll07      -102
    39      Koronin      -119
    40      BikeRacer33      -120
          Collective_Wisdom      22

    Standings
    I'm surprised there is this much change to be honest.
    1      Kazistuta      1964      0
    2      Nyssinator      1947      0
    3      SafeBet      1918      1
    4      Bminchow      1918      1
    5      Bonimenier      1890      1
    6      Otoxiep87      1884      1
    7      Comodoro      1849      1
    8      Scrooll07      1812      -5
    9      Fivezzz      1799      0
    10      Northerner      1789      1
    11      Tobydawq      1785      -1
    12      Lecko      1777      0
    13      Rote_Laterne      1714      1
    14      LosBrolin      1712      3
    15      Berflamand      1702      0
    16      Mellow_Velo      1693      -3
    17      Nathanptz      1672      1
    18      Armchair_Cyclist      1656      -2
    19      Leadbelly      1655      2
    20      Googolplex      1647      0
    21      Del1962      1619      -2
    22      Madrazo      1609      1
    23      Rufs      1571      1
    24      Vladimir      1530      -2
    25      AmisVelo      1408      1
    26      DevilsElbow      1404      1
    27      ZakaFan      1399      1
    28      ChrisDK      1385      -3
    29      Triley36      1343      0
    30      ArchieBoy      1244      1
    31      Salvarani      1236      1
    32      BicycleBoy      1148      1
    33      BikeRacer33      1134      -3
    34      Search      1114      1
    35      Laarsland      1068      1
    36      BluesInTheBottle      1037      -2
    37      Yellow_Knight      1015      0
    38      Shalgo      987      0
    39      Koronin      734      0
    40      RedheadDane      450      0
          Collective_Wisdom      1783   

    Sprinters tomorrow?  There should be something on the purple points at least.
    And CN take the lead again:  1504-1495.

  • ReplyReply

  • Armchair Cyclist

    • Classics Winner
    • *
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 3267
    • Liked: 3446
    • Awards: 2020 Tour de France Prediction Champ2020 Worlds Prediction Champ2019 Spring Classics Prediction Champ2018 Tour de France CQ game winner
    Re: 2021 Giro CQ Game
    « Reply #20 on: May 21, 2021, 23:32 »
    Stage 13  The formulaic sprint stage, with an "at last" result.

    NIZZOLO Giacomo      70      0
    AFFINI Edoardo      40      0
    SAGAN Peter      25      8
    CIMOLAI Davide      15      2
    GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando      10      4
    OLDANI Stefano      7      0
    PASQUALON Andrea      5      1
    KANTER Max      3      0
    VIVIANI Elia      2      4
    GROENEWEGEN Dylan      1      23

    Purple points
    Wednesday had nothing for this classification, but chaos in the pink game; yesterday was essentially neutral for both, and what happens today will be all about whatever changes in the stage points.

    1=      AmisVelo/BicycleBoy/Nathanptz/Rufs/Tobydawq/ZakaFan      26
    7=      ArchieBoy/Comodoro      25
    9      Koronin      17
    10      Salvarani      16
    11      Vladimir      15
    12=      Berflamand/Lecko/Northerner      10
    15      Scrooll07      3
    16=      Kazistuta/Laarsland      2
    18=      Groenewegen teams      1

    Standings

    1      Rufs      456      0
    2      Lecko      395      0
    3      ZakaFan      384      0
    4      Northerner      365      0
    5      Berflamand      364      0
    6      Tobydawq      359      2
    7      Comodoro      340      2
    8      Bonimenier      337      -2
    8      Otoxiep87      337      -2
    10      BicycleBoy      334      2
    11      Nathanptz      324      3
    12      Nyssinator      313      -2
    13      ChrisDK      311      -2
    14      Kazistuta      304      -1
    15      Del1962      286      0


    Pink points

    Very few points, but for quite a lot of teams.  One of those days when I may as well show every rider on a team who had a points change.
    SAGAN Peter      25      8
    BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley      18      27
    CIMOLAI Davide      15      2
    PASQUALON Andrea      5      1
    GROENEWEGEN Dylan      2      23
    VIVIANI Elia      -3      4
    GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando      -15      4

    1      Nathanptz      45
    1      Rufs      45
    1      Tobydawq      45
    1      ZakaFan      45
    5      Comodoro      43
    6      Vladimir      33
    7      AmisVelo      27
    7      BicycleBoy      27
    9      ArchieBoy      25
    10      Bminchow      20
    10      Bonimenier      20
    10      Googolplex      20
    10      Leadbelly      20
    10      Madrazo      20
    10      Mellow_Velo      20
    10      Nyssinator      20
    10      Otoxiep87      20
    10      Rote_Laterne      20
    10      SafeBet      20
    10      Triley36      20
    21      Armchair_Cyclist      18
    21      ChrisDK      18
    21      Del1962      18
    21      Fivezzz      18
    21      LosBrolin      18
    26      Salvarani      17
    26      Scrooll07      17
    28      Kazistuta      15
    29      Berflamand      3
    29      Lecko      3
    29      Northerner      3
    32      BikeRacer33      2
    32      DevilsElbow      2
    32      Shalgo      2
    32      Yellow_Knight      2
    36      BluesInTheBottle      0
    36      RedheadDane      0
    36      Search      0
    39      Laarsland      -3
    40      Koronin      -13

    Standings
    1      Kazistuta      1979      0
    2      Nyssinator      1967      0
    3      SafeBet      1938      0
    4      Bminchow      1938      0
    5      Bonimenier      1910      0
    6      Otoxiep87      1904      0
    7      Comodoro      1892      0
    8      Tobydawq      1830      3
    9      Scrooll07      1829      -1
    10      Fivezzz      1817      -1
    11      Northerner      1792      -1
    12      Lecko      1780      0
    13      Rote_Laterne      1734      0
    14      LosBrolin      1730      0
    15      Nathanptz      1717      2
    16      Mellow_Velo      1713      0
    17      Berflamand      1705      -2
    18      Leadbelly      1675      1
    19      Armchair_Cyclist      1674      -1
    20      Googolplex      1667      0
    21      Del1962      1637      0
    22      Madrazo      1629      0
    23      Rufs      1616      0
    24      Vladimir      1563      0
    25      ZakaFan      1444      2
    26      AmisVelo      1435      -1
    27      DevilsElbow      1406      -1
    28      ChrisDK      1403      0
    29      Triley36      1363      0
    30      ArchieBoy      1269      0
    31      Salvarani      1253      0
    32      BicycleBoy      1175      0
    33      BikeRacer33      1136      0
    34      Search      1114      0
    35      Laarsland      1065      0
    36      BluesInTheBottle      1037      0
    37      Yellow_Knight      1017      0
    38      Shalgo      989      0
    39      Koronin      721      0
    40      RedheadDane      450      0
          Collective_Wisdom      1803   

    Someone will drop away in the rankings tomorrow, with others rising to claim his CQ points.  But who?
  • ReplyReply

  • Armchair Cyclist

    • Classics Winner
    • *
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 3267
    • Liked: 3446
    • Awards: 2020 Tour de France Prediction Champ2020 Worlds Prediction Champ2019 Spring Classics Prediction Champ2018 Tour de France CQ game winner
    Re: 2021 Giro CQ Game
    « Reply #21 on: May 23, 2021, 01:23 »
    Stage 14 Zoncolan

    Enough of the break was caught that stage points are not a rarity.  But in terms of competitive advantage, they mean almost nothing.

    FORTUNATO Lorenzo      70      0
    TRATNIK Jan      40      0
    COVI Alessandro      25      0
    BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley      15      27
    MOLLEMA Bauke      10      0
    YATES Simon      7      39
    BENNETT George      5      2
    OLIVEIRA Nelson Filipe Santos Simoes      3      0
    MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe      2      2
    CARUSO Damiano      1      0

    Purple Points

    27 teams have Bernal and Yates, and share top score of the day on 22, Blues in the Bottle has 12 for Yates and Bennett, Amis Velo and Salvarani get 9 for Yates + Martinez, and behind the remaining Yates teams, RHD has 5 from Bennett.

    Scores largely cancelled each other out, but Madrazo moves up 4 places to 20th; SafeBet and Bminchow up 2 in inevitable tandem to share 24th (but more on their entanglement below), and Triley and Nathanptz move 1 place each, to 35th and 10th respectively.

    Pink points

    The most popular pick proves himself worth the 'not to be missed' status that we all gave him, but that only really makes a difference in so far as it depresses the scores of Vlasov and Carthy.

    YATES Simon      142      39
    BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley      33      27
    MARTIN Daniel      26      8
    BENNETT George      21      2
    CICCONE Giulio      20      4
    MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe      17      2
    BARDET Romain      15      6
    ALMEIDA Joao Pedro Gonçalves      12      4
    FORMOLO Davide      10      12
    DEKKER David      -15      3
    GROENEWEGEN Dylan      -16      23
    CARTHY Hugh      -25      15
    EVENEPOEL Remco      -27      30
    TAARAMÄE Rein      -27      2
    FOSS Tobias Svendsen      -30      
    MOSCON Gianni      -40      4
    HINDLEY Jai      -54      3
    VLASOV Aleksandr      -111      6

    Most of the mornings top ten are in the bottom half for today's scores, and most of the top 5 in the bottom quartile, but the leader Kazistuta is top of today's table.
    1      Kazistuta      209
    2      Vladimir      200
    3      Armchair_Cyclist      186
    4      Berflamand      178
    5      Lecko      174
    6      ZakaFan      169
    7      Northerner      163
    8      Del1962      158
    8      Tobydawq      158
    10      Comodoro      153
    11      Fivezzz      149
    12      ChrisDK      148
    13      Rufs      145
    14      Salvarani      143
    15      BluesInTheBottle      138
    16      Mellow_Velo      132
    16      Nathanptz      132
    18      BicycleBoy      125
    19      Koronin      116
    20      Triley36      115
    21      Bonimenier      107
    21      Scrooll07      107
    23      Search      105
    24      Leadbelly      104
    24      Madrazo      104
    26      AmisVelo      101
    27      ArchieBoy      90
    28      Otoxiep87      87
    29      LosBrolin      78
    30      BikeRacer33      74
    30      Shalgo      74
    32      Nyssinator      67
    33      Googolplex      48
    34      Laarsland      46
    35      RedheadDane      33
    36      Bminchow      31
    36      SafeBet      31
    38      Rote_Laterne      21
    39      Yellow_Knight      16
    40      DevilsElbow      -37
          Collective_Wisdom      117

    Standings
    And so the lead is considerably extended. 

    1      Kazistuta      2188      0
    2      Comodoro      2045      5
    3      Nyssinator      2034      -1
    4      Bonimenier      2017      1
    5      Otoxiep87      1991      1
    6      Tobydawq      1988      2
    7      SafeBet      1969      -4
    8      Bminchow      1969      -4
    9      Fivezzz      1966      1
    10      Northerner      1955      1
    11      Lecko      1954      1
    12      Scrooll07      1936      -3
    13      Berflamand      1883      4
    14      Armchair_Cyclist      1860      5
    15      Nathanptz      1849      0
    16      Mellow_Velo      1845      0
    17      LosBrolin      1808      -3
    18      Del1962      1795      3
    19      Leadbelly      1779      -1
    20      Vladimir      1763      4
    21      Rufs      1761      2
    22      Rote_Laterne      1755      -9
    23      Madrazo      1733      -1
    24      Googolplex      1715      -4
    25      ZakaFan      1613      0
    26      ChrisDK      1551      2
    27      AmisVelo      1536      -1
    28      Triley36      1478      1
    29      Salvarani      1396      2
    30      DevilsElbow      1369      -3
    31      ArchieBoy      1359      -1
    32      BicycleBoy      1300      0
    33      Search      1219      1
    34      BikeRacer33      1210      -1
    35      BluesInTheBottle      1175      1
    36      Laarsland      1111      -1
    37      Shalgo      1063      1
    38      Yellow_Knight      1033      -1
    39      Koronin      837      0
    40      RedheadDane      483      0
          Collective_Wisdom      1920   

    In theory, I guess even Redhead Dane could still win, although that might require Siegle and Puccio managing a 25 minute breakaway win in every remaining stage, one team now cannot possibly win.  The DNS by David Dekker means that no matter how well his riders do, Bminchow is bound to finish tied on points with, but behind, SafeBet.

    Low points expectation for tomorrow.
  • ReplyReply

  • Armchair Cyclist

    • Classics Winner
    • *
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 3267
    • Liked: 3446
    • Awards: 2020 Tour de France Prediction Champ2020 Worlds Prediction Champ2019 Spring Classics Prediction Champ2018 Tour de France CQ game winner
    Re: 2021 Giro CQ Game
    « Reply #22 on: May 23, 2021, 16:56 »
    Stage 15 Crash on the causeway and criss-crossing the border



    If I had concentrated, I could have got the Purple points posted before the main group finished.


    10 points for Rufs and Redhead Dane from Hermans.  The top and bottom teams score, Rufs cannot move higher, RHD moves up to second last.


    (several hours later)
    Pink points
    If not for the unfortunate DNFs (and the tactical DNS), there would be almost nothing to report at all.  But no matter how regretable a rider's withdrawal from the race, other riders (and their teams) will gain points with the concomitant rise in the standings.

    CICCONE Giulio      25      4
    EVENEPOEL Remco      25      30
    BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley      18      27
    BARDET Romain      15      6
    CIMOLAI Davide      15      2
    FOSS Tobias Svendsen      15      1
    HERMANS Quinten      15      2
    MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe      15      2
    FORMOLO Davide      12      12
    BENNETT George      10      2
    GAVIRIA RENDON Fernando      10      4
    BERHANE Natnael Teweldemedhin      -15      1
    BUCHMANN Emanuel      -215      31


    Buchmann's bargain price and potential to finish in a high position made him a very popular pick that looked like it was going to pay dividends, until the lottery that is a peloton crash intervened.  But some teams benefit from it.  No prizes for identifying the nine teams without him in this list:
    1      Berflamand      90
    2      Mellow_Velo      70
    2      Otoxiep87      70
    4      Rufs      45
    5      ChrisDK      43
    6      Laarsland      42
    7      Koronin      40
    8      ZakaFan      30
    9      Yellow_Knight      25
    10      Kazistuta      -119
    11      Salvarani      -137
    12      Comodoro      -147
    12      Northerner      -147
    14      LosBrolin      -152
    15      Lecko      -154
    16      Vladimir      -155
    17      Bminchow      -160
    17      Del1962      -160
    17      Leadbelly      -160
    17      SafeBet      -160
    21      AmisVelo      -163
    22      Fivezzz      -164
    22      Madrazo      -164
    22      Tobydawq      -164
    25      Scrooll07      -167
    26      Nyssinator      -168
    27      Bonimenier      -172
    27      Nathanptz      -172
    29      Search      -175
    30      Armchair_Cyclist      -177
    31      BicycleBoy      -182
    31      RedheadDane      -182
    33      Triley36      -185
    34      Rote_Laterne      -189
    35      ArchieBoy      -190
    35      BikeRacer33      -190
    35      DevilsElbow      -190
    35      Shalgo      -190
    39      BluesInTheBottle      -205
    40      Googolplex      -212
          Collective_Wisdom      -160

    Standings

    Of the 31 teams that suffered today, it was the leader, Kazistuta, who mitigated the loss best: the highest placed rider who didn't incur that loss today is Otoxiep87, who moves up to 2nd and only 8 points behind. Even bigger jumps bring Berflamand and Mellow Velo ahead of most of the morning's top ten.

    1 Kazistuta 2069 0
    2      Otoxiep87      2061      3
    3      Berflamand      1973      10
    4      Mellow_Velo      1915      12
    5      Comodoro      1898      -3
    6      Nyssinator      1866      -3
    7      Bonimenier      1845      -3
    8      Tobydawq      1824      -2
    9      SafeBet      1809      -2
    10      Bminchow      1809      -2
    11      Northerner      1808      -1
    12      Rufs      1806      9
    13      Fivezzz      1802      -4
    14      Lecko      1800      -3
    15      Scrooll07      1769      -3
    16      Armchair_Cyclist      1683      -2
    17      Nathanptz      1677      -2
    18      LosBrolin      1656      -1
    19      ZakaFan      1643      6
    20      Del1962      1635      -2
    21      Leadbelly      1619      -2
    22      Vladimir      1608      -2
    23      ChrisDK      1594      3
    24      Madrazo      1569      -1
    25      Rote_Laterne      1566      -3
    26      Googolplex      1503      -2
    27      AmisVelo      1373      0
    28      Triley36      1293      0
    29      Salvarani      1259      0
    30      DevilsElbow      1179      0
    31      ArchieBoy      1169      0
    32      Laarsland      1153      4
    33      BicycleBoy      1118      -1
    34      Yellow_Knight      1058      4
    35      Search      1044      -2
    36      BikeRacer33      1020      -2
    37      BluesInTheBottle      970      -2
    38      Koronin      877      1
    39      Shalgo      873      -2
    40      RedheadDane      301      0
          Collective_Wisdom      1760   

    There are now no teams who still have their full complement of 8 riders in the race, and three who, like Lotto Soudal, are down to a contingent of three (Triley36, BikeRacer33 and Shalgo).

    Buchmann appears to have been a less popular selection at VeloRooms than CyclingNews, as the pendulum swings again in that battle   VR 1525: CN 1501

    Tomorrow should see some shake up in the GC: let's hope that this time it is determined by legs rather than tarmac.
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: May 24, 2021, 00:33 by Armchair Cyclist »

    Armchair Cyclist

    • Classics Winner
    • *
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 3267
    • Liked: 3446
    • Awards: 2020 Tour de France Prediction Champ2020 Worlds Prediction Champ2019 Spring Classics Prediction Champ2018 Tour de France CQ game winner
    Re: 2021 Giro CQ Game
    « Reply #23 on: May 24, 2021, 22:52 »
    Stage 16 The queen stage dethroned (but I bet it would have been good if we could have seen it)

    BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley      70      27
    BARDET Romain      40      6
    CARUSO Damiano      25      0
    CICCONE Giulio      15      4
    CARTHY Hugh      10      15
    ALMEIDA Joao Pedro Gonçalves      7      4
    VLASOV Aleksandr      5      6
    IZAGIRRE INSAUSTI Gorka      3      0
    FORMOLO Davide      2      12
    FOSS Tobias Svendsen      1      1

    Purple points

    Kazistuta appears at the top of yet another table with first, second and fourth:
    1      Kazistuta      125   Bernal/Bardet/Ciccone
    2      Mellow_Velo      122   Bernal/Bardet/Carthy/Formolo
    3      Vladimir      112   Bernal/Bardet/Formolo
    4      Northerner      110   Bernal/Bardet
    5      Berflamand      87   Bernal/Ciccone/Formolo
    6      Comodoro      85   Bernal/Ciccone
    7      Otoxiep87      83   Bernal/Carthy/Formolo/Foss
    8      Armchair_Cyclist      82   Bernal/Carthy/Formolo
    9=      Bonimenier/Fivezzz/Nyssinator/Scrooll07      80   Bernal/Carthy

    Standings

    1      Rufs      558      0
    2      Northerner      497      2
    3      Lecko      487      -1
    4      ZakaFan      478      -1
    5      Berflamand      473      0
    6      Kazistuta      451      8
    6      Tobydawq      451      0
    8      Comodoro      447      -1
    9      Otoxiep87      442      -1
    10      Bonimenier      439      -2

    Pink points

    As I hoped yesterday, these are at least 'proper' racing changes, not accident and incident.

    BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley 98 27
    CARUSO Damiano      95      0
    CARTHY Hugh      85      15
    BARDET Romain      82      6
    ALMEIDA Joao Pedro Gonçalves      38      4
    FORMOLO Davide      26      12
    CICCONE Giulio      17      4
    CASTROVIEJO NICOLAS Jonathan      16      0
    FOSS Tobias Svendsen      16      1
    BOUWMAN Koen      14      0
    BENNETT George      12      2
    TAARAMÄE Rein      -26      2
    EVENEPOEL Remco      -120      30
    YATES Simon      -135      39


    A damaging day if you have Evenepoel and Yates, as so many do (and apparently another 70 likely to be lost on Wednesday for the Evenepoel teams).  But not too bad if you have Bernal but not Evenepoel (or neither Yates nor Evenepoel because your team was chosen by random).
    1      Armchair_Cyclist      75
    2      Vladimir      71
    3      RedheadDane      52
    4      Mellow_Velo      36
    5      Triley36      -11
    5      ZakaFan      -11
    7      Otoxiep87      -30
    8      Googolplex      -32
    9      BluesInTheBottle      -38
    10      Rufs      -42
    11      Kazistuta      -57
    12      Rote_Laterne      -58
    13      Fivezzz      -71
    14      Bonimenier      -72
    14      Scrooll07      -72
    16      Northerner      -75
    17      Nyssinator      -80
    18      Laarsland      -87
    19      Search      -88
    20      Berflamand      -114
    21      Bminchow      -126
    21      SafeBet      -126
    23      Leadbelly      -127
    24      Del1962      -131
    25      Salvarani      -135
    26      Comodoro      -140
    27      AmisVelo      -144
    28      LosBrolin      -153
    29      Lecko      -156
    29      Madrazo      -156
    29      Tobydawq      -156
    32      ChrisDK      -157
    32      Nathanptz      -157
    34      DevilsElbow      -165
    35      ArchieBoy      -170
    35      BikeRacer33      -170
    35      Shalgo      -170
    38      Yellow_Knight      -171
    39      BicycleBoy      -254
    40      Koronin      -256
          Collective_Wisdom      -46


    Standings

    Otoxiep takes the lead for the fourth time.  Will he retain it for any longer than previously?
    1      Otoxiep87      2031      1
    2      Kazistuta      2012      -1
    3      Mellow_Velo      1951      1
    4      Berflamand      1859      -1
    5      Nyssinator      1786      1
    6      Bonimenier      1773      1
    7      Rufs      1764      5
    8      Comodoro      1758      -2
    9      Armchair_Cyclist      1758      7
    10      Northerner      1733      1
    11      Fivezzz      1731      2
    12      Scrooll07      1697      3
    13      SafeBet      1683      -4
    14      Bminchow      1683      -4
    15      Vladimir      1679      7
    16      Tobydawq      1668      -8
    17      Lecko      1644      -3
    18      ZakaFan      1632      1
    19      Nathanptz      1520      -2
    20      Rote_Laterne      1508      5
    21      Del1962      1504      -1
    22      LosBrolin      1503      -4
    23      Leadbelly      1492      -2
    24      Googolplex      1471      2
    25      ChrisDK      1437      -2
    26      Madrazo      1413      -2
    27      Triley36      1282      1
    28      AmisVelo      1229      -1
    29      Salvarani      1124      0
    30      Laarsland      1066      2
    31      DevilsElbow      1014      -1
    32      ArchieBoy      999      -1
    33      Search      956      2
    34      BluesInTheBottle      932      3
    35      Yellow_Knight      887      -1
    36      BicycleBoy      864      -3
    37      BikeRacer33      850      -1
    38      Shalgo      703      1
    39      Koronin      621      -1
    40      RedheadDane      353      0
          Collective_Wisdom      1714   

    I should have some time to do some rest day data tomorrow.
  • ReplyReply

  • Armchair Cyclist

    • Classics Winner
    • *
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 3267
    • Liked: 3446
    • Awards: 2020 Tour de France Prediction Champ2020 Worlds Prediction Champ2019 Spring Classics Prediction Champ2018 Tour de France CQ game winner
    Re: 2021 Giro CQ Game
    « Reply #24 on: May 27, 2021, 00:54 »
    Stage 17  Perhaps it is not a foregone conclusion after all

    Sorry I didn't get to do any rider-based number crunching yesterday, and it has become too late in the evening to do it today either.

    MARTIN Daniel      70      8
    ALMEIDA Joao Pedro Gonçalves      40      4
    YATES Simon      25      39
    ULISSI Diego      15      0
    CARUSO Damiano      10      0
    MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe      7      2
    BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley      5      27
    PEDRERO LOPEZ Antonio      3      0
    BILBAO LOPEZ DE ARMENTIA Pello      2      0
    BENNETT George      1      2


    Purple points

    1=      Armchair_Cyclist/Fivezzz/Kazistuta/Lecko/Madrazo/Rufs/Tobydawq      100
    8      BicycleBoy      95
    9      Salvarani      72
    10=      Leadbelly/LosBrolin      70
    12      RedheadDane      41
    13      AmisVelo      32
    14      Bernal & Yates teams      30

    Standings

    1      Rufs      658      0
    2      Lecko      587      1
    3      Kazistuta      551      3
    3      Tobydawq      551      3
    5      Northerner      527      -3
    6      ZakaFan      508      -2
    7      Berflamand      503      -2
    8      Comodoro      477      0
    9      Otoxiep87      472      0
    10      Bonimenier      469      0


    Pink points

    Yates' GC yoyoing means we all keep getting big fluctuations, but not necessarily any change in how we are doing. Bernal doesn't lose anything - quite the opposite.  But for 13 teams, it hints at the possibility that he might.
    MARTIN Daniel      102      8
    YATES Simon      100      39
    ALMEIDA Joao Pedro Gonçalves      72      4
    MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe      32      2
    BARDET Romain      23      6
    BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley      20      27
    BENNETT George      17      2
    EVENEPOEL Remco      -20      30
    FORMOLO Davide      -30      12
    CARTHY Hugh      -75      15
    CICCONE Giulio      -84      4

    Evenepoel's score here is as of the end of stage 17, at which stage he is still in the race.  But his managers should be ready for a 50 point hit tomorrow.

    1      Rufs      233
    2      Salvarani      207
    3      Lecko      202
    3      Madrazo      202
    3      Tobydawq      202
    6      BicycleBoy      182
    6      Leadbelly      182
    8      LosBrolin      176
    9      Kazistuta      141
    10      Fivezzz      127
    11      Northerner      123
    12      Googolplex      120
    13      Armchair_Cyclist      117
    14      Rote_Laterne      114
    15      Vladimir      113
    16      ChrisDK      100
    16      Nathanptz      100
    18      RedheadDane      90
    18      Triley36      90
    18      ZakaFan      90
    21      Koronin      83
    22      Bminchow      70
    22      Del1962      70
    22      SafeBet      70
    25      BluesInTheBottle      42
    26      Nyssinator      35
    27      Search      28
    28      Bonimenier      25
    28      Scrooll07      25
    30      Mellow_Velo      18
    31      Comodoro      16
    32      AmisVelo      7
    33      ArchieBoy      5
    33      BikeRacer33      5
    33      DevilsElbow      5
    33      Shalgo      5
    33      Yellow_Knight      5
    38      Otoxiep87      -5
    39      Berflamand      -14
    39      Laarsland      -14
          Collective_Wisdom      -5

    Standings
    Otoxiep treats leadership of the game as a hot potato yet again.
    1      Kazistuta      2153      1
    2      Otoxiep87      2026      -1
    3      Rufs      1997      4
    4      Mellow_Velo      1969      -1
    5      Armchair_Cyclist      1875      3
    6      Tobydawq      1870      10
    7      Fivezzz      1858      4
    8      Northerner      1856      2
    9      Lecko      1846      8
    10      Berflamand      1845      -6
    11      Nyssinator      1821      -6
    12      Bonimenier      1798      -6
    13      Vladimir      1792      2
    14      Comodoro      1774      -6
    15      SafeBet      1753      -2
    16      Bminchow      1753      -2
    17      Scrooll07      1722      -5
    17      ZakaFan      1722      1
    19      LosBrolin      1679      3
    20      Leadbelly      1674      3
    21      Rote_Laterne      1622      -1
    22      Nathanptz      1620      -3
    23      Madrazo      1615      3
    24      Googolplex      1591      0
    25      Del1962      1574      -4
    26      ChrisDK      1537      -1
    27      Triley36      1372      0
    28      Salvarani      1331      1
    29      AmisVelo      1236      -1
    30      Laarsland      1052      0
    31      BicycleBoy      1046      5
    32      DevilsElbow      1019      -1
    33      ArchieBoy      1004      -1
    34      Search      984      -1
    35      BluesInTheBottle      974      -1
    36      Yellow_Knight      892      -1
    37      BikeRacer33      855      0
    38      Shalgo      708      0
    39      Koronin      704      0
    40      RedheadDane      443      0
          Collective_Wisdom      1709   

    Unless a pick rather more popular than any of the (remaining) sprinters in the game wins tomorrow, or there is some entirely unpredictable shift, we already know the main headline for the game tomorrow.

    But if you thought there was nothing left to play for: CN 1491, VR  1486

    In case you have lost the link to the spreadsheet.
  • ReplyReply

  • Armchair Cyclist

    • Classics Winner
    • *
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 3267
    • Liked: 3446
    • Awards: 2020 Tour de France Prediction Champ2020 Worlds Prediction Champ2019 Spring Classics Prediction Champ2018 Tour de France CQ game winner
    Re: 2021 Giro CQ Game
    « Reply #25 on: May 27, 2021, 14:07 »
    DNF damage to the beginning of stage 18

    With 2 more rather significant DNSes today, we now have 37 riders out of the Giro, 18 of whom were selected for our game.  Here are the 18 relevant to us:
    Rider cost teams stage pts
    LANDA MEANA Mikel      917      7      0
    EWAN Caleb      638      11      141
    MERLIER Tim      633      3      95
    HINDLEY Jai      620      3      0
    SOLER GIMENEZ Marc      553      6      6
    EVENEPOEL Remco      474      30      35
    MASNADA Fausto      462      4      0
    SIVAKOV Pavel      330      15      0
    CICCONE Giulio      306      4      65
    MOHORIC Matej      296      1      0
    CHAMPOUSSIN Clément      277      1      0
    POZZOVIVO Domenico      174      2      0
    BUCHMANN Emanuel      157      31      0
    DEKKER David      93      3      0
    DOMBROWSKI Joseph Lloyd      44      1      70
    BELLETTI Manuel      39      1      2
    BERHANE Natnael Teweldemedhin      16      1      0
    GROENEWEGEN Dylan      0      23      24

    Some non finishers have still benefitted their managers by top tens (and in a few cases, even stage wins) before they dropped out.  In some cases, a very satisfactory return on investment (if not always on hopes)

    Of course, the pain is not evenly spread.  Our teams here are sorted on the basis of collective cost of non-finishers
    Team DNFs Cost of DNFs Stage consolation pts
    Shalgo      6      2155      59
    BikeRacer33      6      2152      206
    Del1962      5      2061      176
    Triley36      5      2024      24
    Koronin      3      1944      41
    ChrisDK      4      1904      176
    Berflamand      4      1743      198
    Yellow_Knight      4      1732      200
    Vladimir      3      1627      6
    Northerner      4      1599      176
    Madrazo      5      1581      59
    Search      3      1548      35
    Lecko      4      1443      176
    BluesInTheBottle      4      1392      217
    Comodoro      5      1360      103
    Bonimenier      4      1269      200
    Nyssinator      4      1269      200
    BicycleBoy      4      1264      154
    Scrooll07      4      1184      65
    Rote_Laterne      4      1113      26
    Otoxiep87      3      1112      200
    Googolplex      4      1090      24
    RedheadDane      3      1006      6
    ZakaFan      3      963      119
    Bminchow      4      961      59
    DevilsElbow      4      961      59
    Nathanptz      4      961      59
    SafeBet      4      961      59
    Kazistuta      3      937      103
    Mellow_Velo      3      936      59
    Fivezzz      3      805      35
    Laarsland      3      729      68
    LosBrolin      3      724      35
    Rufs      2      638      165
    AmisVelo      3      631      59
    ArchieBoy      2      631      35
    Leadbelly      3      631      59
    Salvarani      3      631      59
    Tobydawq      3      631      59
    Armchair_Cyclist      2      619      0
    Collective_Wisdom      4      961      59

    Let's hope I am not being premature or tempting fate by posting this with 3 1/2 stages to go.
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: May 27, 2021, 17:49 by Armchair Cyclist »

    Armchair Cyclist

    • Classics Winner
    • *
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 3267
    • Liked: 3446
    • Awards: 2020 Tour de France Prediction Champ2020 Worlds Prediction Champ2019 Spring Classics Prediction Champ2018 Tour de France CQ game winner
    Re: 2021 Giro CQ Game
    « Reply #26 on: May 27, 2021, 17:57 »
    Stage 18 Verrrrry long: battle for the break and not as much battle as one might have expected for the finish.

    Purple points
    They might have thought it was going to be more when he got away, but in the end Archie Boy, Nathanptz and Yellow Knight have to settle for 2 points each for Cavagna coming 9th.  It's still two points more than anyone else got, and in the purple rankings it is enough to move Yellow Knight up one place to 32nd.

    Pink points

    Small positives, big negatives
    BEVIN Patrick      17      5
    BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley      16      27
    MARTIN Daniel      15      8
    EVENEPOEL Remco      -50      30
    SCHULTZ Nicholas      -58      0
    CICCONE Giulio      -138      4

    Ten teams have Evenepoel, nine have a positive score today (Laarsland has Ciccone, but not Evenepoel).  A week or so ago, having Ciccone was the key to being on the podium, so his loss hits some of those who have been high in the rankings.  For the second time in three days, I seem to have stumbled to the top of the daily scores.
    1      Armchair_Cyclist      54
    2      ZakaFan      39
    3      Rufs      29
    4      Vladimir      23
    5      Triley36      22
    6      Rote_Laterne      18
    7      Googolplex      16
    8      RedheadDane      9
    9      BluesInTheBottle      8
    10      Tobydawq      -2
    11      Fivezzz      -19
    11      Lecko      -19
    11      Madrazo      -19
    14      Mellow_Velo      -27
    15      Bminchow      -28
    15      Del1962      -28
    15      Otoxiep87      -28
    15      SafeBet      -28
    19      ArchieBoy      -31
    20      Nathanptz      -32
    20      Search      -32
    22      LosBrolin      -33
    22      Northerner      -33
    24      Bonimenier      -34
    24      ChrisDK      -34
    24      Scrooll07      -34
    27      BicycleBoy      -35
    27      Leadbelly      -35
    29      Nyssinator      -36
    30      AmisVelo      -44
    31      Salvarani      -48
    31      Yellow_Knight      -48
    33      BikeRacer33      -50
    33      DevilsElbow      -50
    33      Shalgo      -50
    36      Koronin      -53
    37      Laarsland      -132
    38      Kazistuta      -156
    39      Berflamand      -166
    40      Comodoro      -172
          Collective_Wisdom      -28

    Standings
    For the first time since BitB's remarkable, if short-lived, rise to the top on stage 4, we have a leader who is not Otoxiep or Kazistuta, as Rufs takes the lead in this as well as the minor classification.

    1      Rufs      2026      2
    2      Otoxiep87      1998      0
    3      Kazistuta      1997      -2
    4      Mellow_Velo      1942      0
    5      Armchair_Cyclist      1929      0
    6      Tobydawq      1868      0
    7      Fivezzz      1839      0
    8      Lecko      1827      1
    9      Northerner      1823      -1
    10      Vladimir      1815      3
    11      Nyssinator      1785      0
    12      Bonimenier      1764      0
    13      ZakaFan      1761      4
    14      SafeBet      1725      1
    15      Bminchow      1725      1
    16      Scrooll07      1688      1
    17      Berflamand      1679      -7
    18      LosBrolin      1646      1
    19      Rote_Laterne      1640      2
    20      Leadbelly      1639      0
    21      Googolplex      1607      3
    22      Comodoro      1602      -8
    23      Madrazo      1596      0
    24      Nathanptz      1588      -2
    25      Del1962      1546      0
    26      ChrisDK      1503      0
    27      Triley36      1394      0
    28      Salvarani      1283      0
    29      AmisVelo      1192      0
    30      BicycleBoy      1011      1
    31      BluesInTheBottle      982      4
    32      ArchieBoy      973      1
    33      DevilsElbow      969      -1
    34      Search      952      0
    35      Laarsland      920      -5
    36      Yellow_Knight      844      0
    37      BikeRacer33      805      0
    38      Shalgo      658      0
    39      Koronin      651      0
    40      RedheadDane      452      0
          Collective_Wisdom      1681   
    Every team that has Bernal is above every team that does not (looking at the position changes, that must have been true yesterday as well, but I hadn't noticed).  Less than 100 points separate the top five, so still much to be decided.

    And the lead has changed yet again:  VR 1463   CN  1451



  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: May 27, 2021, 20:22 by Armchair Cyclist »

    Armchair Cyclist

    • Classics Winner
    • *
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 3267
    • Liked: 3446
    • Awards: 2020 Tour de France Prediction Champ2020 Worlds Prediction Champ2019 Spring Classics Prediction Champ2018 Tour de France CQ game winner
    Re: 2021 Giro CQ Game
    « Reply #27 on: May 29, 2021, 10:55 »
    Sorry it's late

    Stage 19 Probing for weaknesses

    YATES Simon      70      39
    ALMEIDA Joao Pedro Gonçalves      40      4
    BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley      25      27
    CARUSO Damiano      15      0
    VLASOV Aleksandr      10      6
    MARTIN Daniel      7      8
    MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe      5      2
    BOUWMAN Koen      3      0
    FOSS Tobias Svendsen      2      1
    BARDET Romain      1      6

    Purple points
    When it is looking good for Yates, it looks good for everyone, to the real benefit of no-one*

    Two teams manage the podium of the day: chapeau
    1=      Leadbelly/LosBrolin      135   Yates-Almeida-Bernal
    3      Salvarani      116   Yates-Almeida-Martinez-Bardet
    4      Bminchow/Googolplex/Rote_Laterne/SafeBet      105   Yates-Bernal-Vlasov
    8      Kazistuta      103   Yates-Bernal-Martin-Bardet
    9      Armchair_Cyclist/Fivezzz/Lecko/Madrazo/Rufs/Tobydawq      102   Yates-Bernal-Martin

    Standings
    Kazistuta is third on his own rather than tied with Tobydawq: that is the only change in the top ten.
    1      Rufs      760
    2      Lecko      689
    3      Kazistuta      654
    4      Tobydawq      653
    5      Northerner      623
    6      ZakaFan      603
    7      Berflamand      598
    8      Comodoro      572
    9      Otoxiep87      569
    10      Bonimenier      564


    Pink points
    Very little change in the GC or minor classifications, and only one of the day's DNFs had been selected.
    YATES Simon      70      39
    BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley      43      27
    ALMEIDA Joao Pedro Gonçalves      40      4
    VLASOV Aleksandr      10      6
    MARTIN Daniel      7      8
    MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe      5      2
    FORMOLO Davide      -6      12
    TAARAMÄE Rein      -10      2
    BEVIN Patrick      -12      5
    CEPEDA ORTIZ Jefferson Alexander      -15      7


    1      LosBrolin      143
    2      Leadbelly      138
    3      Googolplex      123
    4      Kazistuta      121
    4      Rufs      121
    6      Lecko      120
    6      Madrazo      120
    8      Bminchow      117
    8      SafeBet      117
    10      Salvarani      116
    11      Northerner      114
    12      Bonimenier      113
    12      Comodoro      113
    12      Nathanptz      113
    12      Nyssinator      113
    12      Rote_Laterne      113
    12      Scrooll07      113
    18      Otoxiep87      109
    19      Mellow_Velo      108
    19      Tobydawq      108
    19      Vladimir      108
    22      Berflamand      107
    22      Del1962      107
    22      Triley36      107
    25      Fivezzz      105
    26      Armchair_Cyclist      102
    27      ChrisDK      98
    28      ZakaFan      95
    29      BicycleBoy      77
    30      BikeRacer33      70
    30      Koronin      70
    30      Shalgo      70
    30      Yellow_Knight      70
    34      AmisVelo      69
    35      DevilsElbow      65
    36      Laarsland      59
    37      ArchieBoy      58
    38      BluesInTheBottle      55
    39      Search      44
    40      RedheadDane      41
          Collective_Wisdom      107

    Standings
    1      Rufs      2147      0
    2      Kazistuta      2118      1
    3      Otoxiep87      2107      -1
    4      Mellow_Velo      2050      0
    5      Armchair_Cyclist      2031      0
    6      Tobydawq      1976      0
    7      Lecko      1947      1
    8      Fivezzz      1944      -1
    9      Northerner      1937      0
    10      Vladimir      1923      0
    11      Nyssinator      1898      0
    12      Bonimenier      1877      0
    13      ZakaFan      1856      0
    14      SafeBet      1842      0
    15      Bminchow      1842      0
    16      Scrooll07      1801      0
    17      LosBrolin      1789      1
    18      Berflamand      1786      -1
    19      Leadbelly      1777      1
    20      Rote_Laterne      1753      -1
    21      Googolplex      1730      0
    22      Madrazo      1716      1
    23      Comodoro      1715      -1
    24      Nathanptz      1701      0
    25      Del1962      1653      0
    26      ChrisDK      1601      0
    27      Triley36      1501      0
    28      Salvarani      1399      0
    29      AmisVelo      1261      0
    30      BicycleBoy      1088      0
    31      BluesInTheBottle      1037      0
    32      DevilsElbow      1034      1
    33      ArchieBoy      1031      -1
    34      Search      996      0
    35      Laarsland      979      0
    36      Yellow_Knight      914      0
    37      BikeRacer33      875      0
    38      Shalgo      728      0
    39      Koronin      721      0
    40      RedheadDane      493      0
          Collective_Wisdom      1788   

    So to be high in the table it is pretty inevitable that a team will have Bernal and Yates, and all teams have some DNFs who can no longer contribute.
    So which riders might make the difference for whom?
    Rufs:- Martin, Moscon, Hermans, Sagan
    Kazistuta:- Martin, Bardet, Viviani
    Otoxiep87:- Carthy, Foss, Formolo
    Mellow Velo:- Carthy, Bardet, Formolo
    Armchair Cyclist:- Carthy, Martin, Formolo, Bevin
    The highest team with Vlasov is in 14th, and with Almeida 17th: they are unlikely to make an impact.
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: May 29, 2021, 11:28 by Armchair Cyclist »

    Armchair Cyclist

    • Classics Winner
    • *
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 3267
    • Liked: 3446
    • Awards: 2020 Tour de France Prediction Champ2020 Worlds Prediction Champ2019 Spring Classics Prediction Champ2018 Tour de France CQ game winner
    Re: 2021 Giro CQ Game
    « Reply #28 on: May 30, 2021, 10:50 »
    Late again, but it really just builds up the tension...

    Stage 20 Ninja no more.

    CARUSO Damiano      70      0
    BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley      40      27
    MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe      25      2
    BARDET Romain      15      6
    ALMEIDA Joao Pedro Gonçalves      10      4
    YATES Simon      7      39
    VLASOV Aleksandr      5      6
    CARTHY Hugh      3      15
    FORTUNATO Lorenzo      2      0
    PEDRERO LOPEZ Antonio      1      0

    Purple points
    28 teams got at least 47 points, 27 of them due to the Bernal/Yates combination, but  some got a bit more.

    1      Mellow_Velo      65 Bardet and Carthy
    2=      Kazistuta/Northerner/Vladimir      62 Bardet
    5=      Leadbelly/LosBrolin      57 Almeida
    5=Salvarani57Martinez-Bardet-Almeida-Yates
    8=      Bminchow/Googolplex/Rote_Laterne/SafeBet      52 Vlasov

    Standings

    Otoxiep87 moves from 9th to joint 8th, otherwise as they were:
    1      Rufs      807
    2      Lecko      736
    3      Kazistuta      716
    4      Tobydawq      700
    5      Northerner      685
    6      ZakaFan      650
    7      Berflamand      645
    8=      Comodoro      619
    8=      Otoxiep87      619
    10      Bonimenier      614

    There are not many TT specialists among our selections: Cavagna should put Nathanptz into the top ten, and Bevin would have a very slight chance of bumping Toby towards the podium, , while Foss, if he has the TT legs from the opening stage after those climbs, might elevate Otoxiep a bit.  But otherwise there shouldn't be much change here tonight.

    Pink points
    The nature of these scores as projections is that the nearer we get to the end of the race, the wider the margins and the less frequent the changes, but also the closer it is to final expectations.  But some of the stage 20 changes might well be temporary (unless you have confidence in Bardet to TT like he never has before)

    BERNAL GOMEZ Egan Arley      63      27
    MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe      50      2
    BARDET Romain      41      6
    YATES Simon      17      39
    ALMEIDA Joao Pedro Gonçalves      14      4
    VLASOV Aleksandr      5      6
    MOSCON Gianni      -6      4
    FORMOLO Davide      -6      12
    MARTIN Daniel      -10      8
    TAARAMÄE Rein      -19      2
    CARTHY Hugh      -47      15

    Despite Bernal finishing second today and taking his final Pink jersey bonus, it is one of the minority of teams without him that tops the daily scoring.
    1      Salvarani      122
    2      Northerner      121
    3      Vladimir      115
    4      Kazistuta      111
    5      Leadbelly      88
    6      Googolplex      85
    7      ChrisDK      80
    7      Comodoro      80
    7      Nathanptz      80
    10      Bminchow      79
    10      SafeBet      79
    12      Berflamand      74
    12      Del1962      74
    12      Triley36      74
    15      ZakaFan      71
    16      Lecko      70
    16      Madrazo      70
    18      LosBrolin      69
    19      Mellow_Velo      68
    20      Tobydawq      67
    21      Rote_Laterne      66
    22      Rufs      64
    23      Bonimenier      33
    23      Scrooll07      33
    25      Nyssinator      27
    25      Otoxiep87      27
    27      Fivezzz      23
    28      Koronin      22
    29      Laarsland      16
    30      AmisVelo      14
    30      Armchair_Cyclist      14
    30      RedheadDane      14
    33      Search      8
    34      BicycleBoy      7
    35      DevilsElbow      -25
    36      BikeRacer33      -30
    36      BluesInTheBottle      -30
    36      Shalgo      -30
    36      Yellow_Knight      -30
    40      ArchieBoy      -33
          Collective_Wisdom      27

    Standings
    Yet another stint in the leader's jersey for Kazistuta: can he hold it this time?  Northerner makes a late appearance as a podium challenger.
    1      Kazistuta      2229      1
    2      Rufs      2211      -1
    3      Otoxiep87      2134      0
    4      Mellow_Velo      2118      0
    5      Northerner      2058      4
    6      Armchair_Cyclist      2045      -1
    7      Tobydawq      2043      -1
    8      Vladimir      2038      2
    9      Lecko      2017      -2
    10      Fivezzz      1967      -2
    11      ZakaFan      1927      2
    12      Nyssinator      1925      -1
    13      SafeBet      1921      1
    14      Bminchow      1921      1
    15      Bonimenier      1910      -3
    16      Leadbelly      1865      3
    17      Berflamand      1860      1
    18      LosBrolin      1858      -1
    19      Scrooll07      1834      -3
    20      Rote_Laterne      1819      0
    21      Googolplex      1815      0
    22      Comodoro      1795      1
    23      Madrazo      1786      -1
    24      Nathanptz      1781      0
    25      Del1962      1727      0
    26      ChrisDK      1681      0
    27      Triley36      1575      0
    28      Salvarani      1521      0
    29      AmisVelo      1275      0
    30      BicycleBoy      1095      0
    31      DevilsElbow      1009      1
    32      BluesInTheBottle      1007      -1
    33      Search      1004      1
    34      ArchieBoy      998      -1
    35      Laarsland      995      0
    36      Yellow_Knight      884      0
    37      BikeRacer33      845      0
    38      Koronin      743      1
    39      Shalgo      698      -1
    40      RedheadDane      507      0
          Collective_Wisdom      1815   

    I suspect that Bardet will lose enough positions today (I have him on another thread as likely to finish 8th) that the advantage would swing back to Rufs, but I have been wrong before (I remember it well, it was a Tuesday...)  Foss may do well, but I don't see him getting enough stage points to make any real benefit to Otoxiep's position.
  • ReplyReply
  • « Last Edit: May 30, 2021, 12:30 by Armchair Cyclist »

    Armchair Cyclist

    • Classics Winner
    • *
    • *
    • Country: 00
    • Posts: 3267
    • Liked: 3446
    • Awards: 2020 Tour de France Prediction Champ2020 Worlds Prediction Champ2019 Spring Classics Prediction Champ2018 Tour de France CQ game winner
    Re: 2021 Giro CQ Game
    « Reply #29 on: May 30, 2021, 17:39 »
    Stage 21 The fat lady has sung in the city of opera

    The stage, as expected, did not really do a lot for our game:
    GANNA Filippo      70      0
    CAVAGNA Rémi      40      3
    AFFINI Edoardo      25      0
    SOBRERO Matteo      15      0
    ALMEIDA Joao Pedro Gonçalves      10      4
    WALSCHEID Maximilian      7      0
    BETTIOL Alberto      5      0
    TRATNIK Jan      3      0
    MOSCON Gianni      2      4
    KEISSE Iljo      1      0

    Purple points
    Some consolation for the Cavagna teams who thought they had a stage win on the way the other day.

    1=      ArchieBoy/Nathanptz/Yellow_Knight      40   Cavagna
    4=      Leadbelly/Los Brolin      12   Almeida and Moscon
    6=      RedheadDane/Salvarani      10   Almeida
    8=      Nyssinator/Rufs      2   Moscon
    10=      Everyone else   0   

    Final Purple Standings
    Nathanptz takes advantage of the principle that it doesn't matter how late you get into the top 10, so long as you are there at the end.
    1      Rufs      809
    2      Lecko      736
    3      Kazistuta      716
    4      Tobydawq      700
    5      Northerner      685
    6      ZakaFan      650
    7      Berflamand      645
    8      Nathanptz      630
    9      Comodoro      619
    9      Otoxiep87      619
    11      Bonimenier      614
    12      Nyssinator      592
    13      ChrisDK      575
    14      Vladimir      566
    15      Leadbelly      560
    16      Del1962      552
    17      Madrazo      545
    18      LosBrolin      538
    19      Fivezzz      536
    20      Scrooll07      523
    21      Salvarani      522
    22      BicycleBoy      520
    23      Armchair_Cyclist      513
    24      Mellow_Velo      511
    25      Bminchow      481
    25      SafeBet      481
    27      Rote_Laterne      448
    28      Googolplex      444
    29      Triley36      400
    30      ArchieBoy      391
    31      Yellow_Knight      379
    32      AmisVelo      376
    33      BluesInTheBottle      372
    34      BikeRacer33      330
    35      Koronin      313
    36      Laarsland      291
    37      Search      230
    38      DevilsElbow      229
    39      Shalgo      183
    40      RedheadDane      171
          Collective_Wisdom      450

    Well done to Rufs, not for the last time in this post.

    Pink points
    Nothing was going to happen at the top of the race, despite what the commentators wanted to make sound possible (and it would have made very little difference to our game anyway).  The key action was all around the middle of the GC top ten.

    ALMEIDA Joao Pedro Gonçalves      60      4
    CAVAGNA Rémi      40      3
    MARTINEZ POVEDA Daniel Felipe      25      2
    FORMOLO Davide      6      12
    MOSCON Gianni      4      4
    CARTHY Hugh      -25      15
    BARDET Romain      -50      6

    1      Leadbelly      64
    1      LosBrolin      64
    3      RedheadDane      59
    4      Nathanptz      40
    5      Salvarani      35
    6      ArchieBoy      16
    7      Yellow_Knight      15
    8      ZakaFan      7
    9      AmisVelo      6
    9      Berflamand      6
    9      Bminchow      6
    9      Del1962      6
    9      Laarsland      6
    9      SafeBet      6
    9      Triley36      6
    16      Rufs      3
    17      Tobydawq      1
    18      BicycleBoy      0
    18      ChrisDK      0
    18      Comodoro      0
    18      Googolplex      0
    18      Koronin      0
    18      Lecko      0
    18      Madrazo      0
    18      Rote_Laterne      0
    26      Armchair_Cyclist      -18
    27      Otoxiep87      -19
    28      Nyssinator      -21
    29      BikeRacer33      -25
    29      BluesInTheBottle      -25
    29      Bonimenier      -25
    29      DevilsElbow      -25
    29      Fivezzz      -25
    29      Scrooll07      -25
    29      Shalgo      -25
    36      Vladimir      -44
    37      Kazistuta      -50
    37      Northerner      -50
    39      Mellow_Velo      -69
    40      Search      -74
          Collective_Wisdom      -19

    Final Pink standings
    Bardet lost today most of the GC gains that he had yesterday, and that means that most of the changes in the game yesterday are reversed today.  Most importantly, at the very top of our table:
    1      Rufs      2214      1
    2      Kazistuta      2179      -1
    3      Otoxiep87      2115      0
    4      Mellow_Velo      2049      0
    5      Tobydawq      2044      2
    6      Armchair_Cyclist      2027      0
    7      Lecko      2017      2
    8      Northerner      2008      -3
    9      Vladimir      1994      -1
    10      Fivezzz      1942      0
    11      ZakaFan      1934      0
    12      Leadbelly      1929      4
    13      SafeBet      1927      0
    14      Bminchow      1927      0
    15      LosBrolin      1922      3
    16      Nyssinator      1904      -4
    17      Bonimenier      1885      -2
    18      Berflamand      1866      -1
    19      Nathanptz      1821      5
    20      Rote_Laterne      1819      0
    21      Googolplex      1815      0
    22      Scrooll07      1809      -3
    23      Comodoro      1795      -1
    24      Madrazo      1786      -1
    25      Del1962      1733      0
    26      ChrisDK      1681      0
    27      Triley36      1581      0
    28      Salvarani      1556      0
    29      AmisVelo      1281      0
    30      BicycleBoy      1095      0
    31      ArchieBoy      1014      3
    32      Laarsland      1001      3
    33      DevilsElbow      984      -2
    34      BluesInTheBottle      982      -2
    35      Search      930      -2
    36      Yellow_Knight      899      0
    37      BikeRacer33      820      0
    38      Koronin      743      0
    39      Shalgo      673      0
    40      RedheadDane      566      0
          Collective_Wisdom      1796   

    So, after a nip and tuck battle between one of our long time stalwarts, a total rookie, and one of the fairly recent Spanish contingent from Parlamiento Ciclismo, it is Rufs who emerges (non-Bahrain) victorious in both 'classements' (as Seán Kelly would have it). 


    Well done to our podium teams, and thanks to all who entered, to the riders, and to the CQ and PCS (because CQ don't to daily classification tables) sites.

    And well done to the Cycling News entrants, who finally get their first win in the 5 games for which I have kept a tally of the inter-forum averages: CN 1602 - VR  1580.


    A bit of number crunching tomorrow, but other than that I will see you all again, I hope, for the Tour de France game, and perhaps a few of you for the Emerging Riders updates that should happen this week.

  • ReplyReply

  •  

    Recent Posts

    National championship 2021 by t-72
    [June 20, 2021, 23:20]


    Re: Roadbooks by babaoh
    [June 19, 2021, 22:20]


    Re: Tour 2021 General Discussion by Leadbelly
    [June 19, 2021, 20:20]


    Re: Tour 2021 General Discussion by Leadbelly
    [June 19, 2021, 20:09]


    Re: Tour 2021 General Discussion by AG
    [June 19, 2021, 12:41]


    Re: Tour 2021 General Discussion by search
    [June 18, 2021, 20:13]



    Top
    Back to top