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Leadbelly

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The 2023 World Tour Race
« on: May 04, 2021, 10:18 »
A sister thread to the auto-wildcard one. This one will be even less frequently updated, though that could change in 2022 especially if things are hotting up.

The basic premise is that you tot up the UCI ranking points (top-ten scoring riders in your team for that year) for the years 2020/21/22 and if you are in the top-18 at the end you will be a WT team from 2023 onwards (for three years again?). There's always room for a UCI fudge or addendums suddenly appearing, but if you get in the top-18 you won't have to rely on stuff like that.

Who do you think will go down or is in trouble?

RankTeam2020 Points2021 Points2022 PointsTotal Points
1Deceuninck9776.166516.816292.96
2Jumbo9919495014869
3INEOS7628.33600013628.33
4UAE85034041.6612544.66
5Bora6738.5335410092.5
6Trek659131439734
7Astana66122698.429310.42
8DSM7582.7113088890.71
9Alpecin478836038391
10Groupama561426138227
11Bahrain468631947880
12BikeExchange49862774.337760.33
13EF5576.9912126788.99
14AG2R362828676495
15Movistar295327375690
16Arkea369717645461
17Lotto323117134944
18I-SUN235825844942
19Qhubeka2618.3318964514.33
20Cofidis280615784384
21CCC + Intermarche34348684302
22Wanty + Intermarche27788683646

A couple of points.

I've given two point totals for Intermarche. One using the CCC points and the other the Wanty score. It is the CCC licence that the team is using, but it feels much more like a Wanty continuation. Either way they are still in last position and without some massive changes in performance and/or riders, that is where they'll remain.

Secondly, will the teams "have" to become World Tour? Obviously I'm thinking of Alpecin here. They have this really cushy number at the moment which is even better than being a WT team really. I'm sure a lot of other teams would love to pick and choose their WT races. Uncle Pat has been complaining about it a bit and for once I think he's right to have a moan. My feeling is that this auto-wildcard will disappear sooner rather than later. Therefore their hand may be forced.
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  • Leadbelly

    • World Champion
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 11984
    • Liked: 9197
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #1 on: June 01, 2021, 19:09 »
    Post Giro 2021.

    RankTeam2020 Points2021 Points2022 PointsTotal Points
    15Movistar295331976150
    16Arkea369723376034
    17I-SUN235831275485
    18Lotto323122085439
    19Cofidis280624515257
    20Qhubeka2618.3323244942.33
    21CCC + Intermarche343411364570
    22Wanty + Intermarche277811363914

    Qhubeka had a great Giro, but outside of Nizzolo you still wonder where their big points will come from.

    It's a similar story at Lotto really. You've got Ewan (and okay Wellens), but after that it's slim pickings and with money tight at the Belgian team, will they be able to strengthen in 2022?
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  • Leadbelly

    • World Champion
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 11984
    • Liked: 9197
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #2 on: July 23, 2021, 08:58 »
    Post Tour 2021.

    RankTeam2020 Points2021 Points2022 PointsTotal Points
    16Arkea369727986495
    17I-SUN235839016259
    18Cofidis280632276033
    19Lotto323124195650
    20Qhubeka2618.3327345352.33
    21CCC + Intermarche343416835117
    22Wanty + Intermarche277816834461

    No huge point gains from the earlier update tbh.

    Lotto have dropped down into the relegation zone as you can see and ~400 points is a fair gap to make up.

    One team that has been in the news recently is DSM. They're having a very poor season on and off the bike, but due to last year's scoring they are still in 11th overall on 9445.71. Even if 2022 was a poor year too, they could just still hang on I reckon.
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  • Leadbelly

    • World Champion
    • Country: gb
    • Posts: 11984
    • Liked: 9197
    • Awards: 2018 Zero Pointers CQ Game winnerNational Championships Predictions Game Winner 2017National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2016KeithJamesMC award 2016Avatar of the year 2015Velogames Spring Classics 2015National Championships Predictions Game Winner 2014
    Re: The 2023 World Tour Race
    « Reply #3 on: September 09, 2021, 22:05 »
    Found the rankings eventually.

    Post Vuelta (ish) 2021:

    RankTeam2020 Points2021 Points2022 PointsTotal Points
    16Arkea369738617558
    17I-SUN235846497007
    18CCC + Intermarche343434426876
    19Cofidis280640086814
    20Lotto323134036634
    ?Wanty + Intermarche277834426220
    21Qhubeka2618.3334576075.33

    Intermarche are on a charge! They (along with Qhubeka) looked a bit of a basket case earlier on in the season, but suddenly it's all change and if Kristoff can have a good 2022, then who knows.

    Final update of the year will be late October and then we can have a closer look at the relevant transfers over the winter.
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